Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[alimobin memon]

The guys have been proven wrong in numerous issues especially this one. The guy pretty much regarded as a nonce in the def community. Him being pedophile just an icing on the cake.

Not a right to invade.

No rihht if its to expand influence. Yes if it to assure no one is doing something to make their land insecure.

 

[sammuel]

~​

​

Occupiers are preparing retreat routes in Kherson Oblast, they have sunk 9 wagons General Staff​

SATURDAY, 17 SEPTEMBER 2022, 18:30


The Russians are preparing retreat routes in Kherson Oblast; in particular, near the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP), they have sunk nine wagons for the construction of a crossing.

Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook, information as of 18:00 on 17 September

Quote: "Due to the successful actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to disable all crossings across the Dnipro on the Kherson front, the occupiers are preparing their retreat routes.

Thus, they have sunk 9 wagons near the Kakhovka HPP for the construction of a further crossing."

Occupiers are preparing retreat routes in Kherson Oblast, they have sunk 9 wagons General Staff

KATERYNA TYSHCHENKO - SATURDAY, 17 SEPTEMBER 2022, 18:30 The Russians are preparing retreat routes in Kherson Oblast; in particular, near the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP), they have sunk nine wagons for the construction of a crossing.

news.yahoo.com

 

[jhungary]

As sex offender he was caught talking to minor, exposed and convicted he will rot in hell for that.

But would this make his analysis on military studies wrong as he was general too ?

He is actually appreciating the valor of ukrainians who are fighting a big military.

He was a Marine Intel Officer, a Captain IIRC, he wasn't really impressive on that field. Me and him are virtually doing the same job and of the same rank, just different branch, and I constantly told people not to trust my analysis and use your brain to process the information as you can.

Scott Ritter’s Other War (Published 2012)

The former United Nations weapons inspector and fierce critic of the Iraq invasion is still fighting, but now against only himself.

www.nytimes.com

I think closing the airspace over Ukraine may also be an option for NATO

That's what no fly zone meant.....

It will be the most obvious option whether or not NATO will put troop on the ground.

I think the risk of nuclear war is real. Assuming it’s correct, Russia command chain for nuclear weapons is Putin->Shoigu->Gerassimov.
Putin is a man nobody can trust. He will become irrational if the defeat in Ukraine is unavoidable. Shoigu is a personal friend of Putin he is unlikely to resist. Gerassimov would be the last man standing. He is general staff chief he is the real military man in Russia armed forces he may think twice.

Well, Putin knows if he used nuke, he would LOSE the war outright, whether or not it will become a global nuclear conflict.

He may not be well verse in Military Tactics and Strategy, but as a KGB man, he knows the limit of what he can and cannot do, and he can tell by the action of the West that whether or not we are serious.

Unless Russia itself were threatened, there are virtually no chance Russia will use nuke of any kind. It just defeats the purpose of this entire war.

 

[mmr]

Unlikely. Professor Marandi, an adviser to the current Iranian nuclear negotiating team, remarked in a recent appearance on Richard Medhurst's program that Iran is not going to compete with Russia on oil exports to Europe, because Russia and China have been far more rational than the west in their policies towards Iran including on the nuclear dossier.

As for Venezuela, Biden traveled there a few months ago, met with President Nicolas Maduro, and left totally empty handed.

Europe is likely going to get hit by an energy crisis, and there appears to be concerted coordination between Russia, Iran and Venezuela in this regard.

---

Only a couple thousand Russians were stationed the area, most whom were members of Rosgvardia - the equivalent of a police force, with no actual military training!



They didn't leave behind any important quantities of equipment at all. At Bakhmut one of the largest ammunition depots of Ukraine is located. When the Kiev regime re-occupied the town, they found that the ammo storage had been completely emptied - Russian forces had moved the content away, and this must have been done in an disciplined manner because it takes time.

Correct observation about the minimal number of Russian PoW's and fallen shown by the Ukrainian side. If what the Russians did was not a tactical retreat of their own volition, and if they were really overrun as some NATO propaganda sources are trying to make it seem, we would've been offered to see many, many more Russian PoW's in Ukrainian custody and many more images of fallen Russian troops than what the Ukrainians have actually shown.

Energy crisis is will be minimal. Nothing like 70s oil embargo.

 

[jhungary]

How much flying hours? At least 500?

How much for what?? It took them around 50 hours to wing. 500 hours is 160SOAR level of flight time.

You can do the hug the ground flight once you are somehow familiar with the craft, so anywhere between 50 to 100 I supposed.

Should give some M1117s as well that I mentioned. In any case whether 2 months from now or post war, at least the Ukrainians have them.

I don't think we will, not in the near future.

I mean it would be probably better off to send them MRAP or even Stryker (which I think is what they really need, more so than Humvee)

Notice taht M1117 was for light cavalry scout, Ukraine does not actually have people trained in this capacity, all their armoured unit are either tanks or IFV. They can use it on the SOF tho, but i heard they are quite fond of the buggy.

Probably keep them busy in the long run while other frontlines are being pushed or flanked. Considering the Russians are desperate to make up the losses with criminals directly from prisons, the Russians have at least few weeks training before they those in. Probably even a rotation at most for winter if possible. So the Ukrainians have the opportunity.

What the Ukrainian doing is what we called "Show of Force" they basically show their hands to Russia, knowing they can't escape, and they can't hold, and hoping sense will prevail and they will give up and go home.

Ukraine should already have enough troops and ways to attack Kherson, using the same "Bite and Hold" technique the Russian uses in the East and grind down Russian defence and take Kherson bit by bit, they didn't do that, most likely because they want to preserve the city.

Crazy for that to happen, that its only far back in June considering that's like 5 months around since the war started. Wagner tends to be more independent and making quicker decisions and have more experience since they have fought in Syria and Africa.

Wagner was the one of the few unit that have recent experience in war, the last war before Syria for Russia is in late 90s and early 20s in Dagestan and Chechen, that was way too long ago, and that;s why their regular troop can't really fight.

It also worth notice that the war in Ukraine has degraded Russian interest in Middle East and Africa, it's exactly because they had rotated a lot of Wagner people from those country and that degraded their local partnership, and in this case, they start recruiting from prison is not a good sign for force regeneration, I think if this war continue, and Russia continue to depend on their PMC, it will bring permanent shift for Russian Interest in Africa and Middle East

@jhungary
Total no fly zone. Every Russian target in Ukraine gets bombed in the air by NATO while Ukrainian troops pushed on the ground. Also Putin has to be really stupid and desperate to do this with the world watching including his own people, the people of Ukraine who won't forget what Russia has done (if nukes were used), wouldn't be surprised to see Ukraine getting their own nukes in near future to prevent it happening again. Did anybody see the U.S. nuke Afghanistan when we lost the war? Russia should just get out like they did in Afghanistan during the 1980s without resorting to nukes.

It kind of depends of the mandate of No Fly Zone. If the No Fly Zone is created to demilitarise an area, then yes, they can engage ground target if they had determined that it was a legit military target inside a demilitarised area. If not, they can't target ground vehicle like the Iraqi No Fly Zone and the one over Serbia in the 90s.

Ukraine will also not be able to launch their aircraft, and drone, so there will be set back here, but then most intel are provided by NATO to Ukraine anyway, it really wouldn't matter much

 

[Ali_Baba]

The king of artillery
Ukraine is getting 100 more pieces.

But how long will it take for them to be delivered ?

 

[Viet]

He was a Marine Intel Officer, a Captain IIRC, he wasn't really impressive on that field. Me and him are virtually doing the same job and of the same rank, just different branch, and I constantly told people not to trust my analysis and use your brain to process the information as you can.

Scott Ritter’s Other War (Published 2012)

The former United Nations weapons inspector and fierce critic of the Iraq invasion is still fighting, but now against only himself.

www.nytimes.com

That's what no fly zone meant.....

It will be the most obvious option whether or not NATO will put troop on the ground.


Well, Putin knows if he used nuke, he would LOSE the war outright, whether or not it will become a global nuclear conflict.

He may not be well verse in Military Tactics and Strategy, but as a KGB man, he knows the limit of what he can and cannot do, and he can tell by the action of the West that whether or not we are serious.

Unless Russia itself were threatened, there are virtually no chance Russia will use nuke of any kind. It just defeats the purpose of this entire war.

The concern is Russia military doctrine is based on a mix of nationalism and imperialism.
In fact the use of nuclear weapons is explicitly allowed in conventional wars if Russia security is threatened. “Threatened” is to up anybody’s guess.
So in scenario like this it’s up to military leadership, in this case, ex KGB spy Vladimir Putin.

 

[1ndy]

I think closing the airspace over Ukraine may also be an option for NATO

it mean shooting down anything that fly over Ukraine Airspace?

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1571431538306306048

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1571215204033110016

 

[Ali_Baba]

Russia’s underperforming military capability may be key to its downfall​

Russia’s underperforming military capability may be key to its downfall

Despite superior firepower, Russian forces have failed to fulfil their potential and face a dispiriting battle to regain the upper hand over Ukrainesia-Ukraine war: latest update

www.theguardian.com

Perhaps one of the greatest weaknesses of the country’s military system, though, is training. First, it simply does not do enough of it. At the beginning of the war, for example, there were fewer than 100 fully trained Russian pilots bordering Ukraine, despite Russia having at least 317 combat aircraft deployedto the theatre.

 

[Wood]

it mean shooting down anything that fly over Ukraine Airspace?

Yes. US may start shipping SAMs to Ukraine. Not sure how long it will take to train Ukrainians though

 

[Viet]

But how long will it take for them to be delivered ?

In 30 months
A bit too long
If Germany could make 20 submarines per month during WW2, which is more complex weapon system, then it could make this simpler thing quicker.

Ukraine: Bundesregierung genehmigt Verkauf von Haubitzen - ZDFheute

Die Bundesregierung hat die Ausfuhr von 18 Haubitzen aus deutscher Produktion an die Ukraine genehmigt.

amp.zdf.de

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1571432057657516033

In 30 months
A bit too long
If Germany could make 20 submarines per month during WW2, which is more complex weapon system, then it could make this simpler thing quicker.

Ukraine: Bundesregierung genehmigt Verkauf von Haubitzen - ZDFheute

Die Bundesregierung hat die Ausfuhr von 18 Haubitzen aus deutscher Produktion an die Ukraine genehmigt.

amp.zdf.de

Germany's demographics today is not comparable to Germany's demographics in WW2. In WW2 Germans were young, vibrant, energetic. Today's Germany has a declining demographics with an aging population who are not energetic and vibrant and not fit for combat.

 

[Viet]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1571432057657516033

Germany's demographics today is not comparable to Germany's demographics in WW2. In WW2 Germans were young, vibrant, energetic. Today's Germany has a declining demographics with an aging population who are not energetic and vibrant and not fit for combat.

a problem however can be solved.
Over a million of Ukrainians have arrived in Germany the number is rising every day. We will probably see several millions if the war continues next year.
Lot of russian deserters, opponents to Putin regime coming from Russia. That goes to hundred thousand.
Germany can recruit them and establish a foreign legion. Légion étrangère allemande. Similar to France army Légion étrangère. There were lots of German soldiers in the legion. Many were fighting in indochina. most never returned after surrender in Vietnam final battle.