Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[alimobin memon]

I’ve pointed out many times objective information that can be found.
Case in point Russia has enacted their own airline maintenance, why?
Because they don’t have access to spare parts and no money to perform them. This will no only void any western aircraft warranties but more importantly jeopardize Russian lives as needed maintenance won’t be performed or performed to international standard. This is just one example, the Russian economy is already done and will only get worse.
Don’t be ignorant

Just like world thought after ww1 germans had no steel to build a single tank to one of finest armoured forces in world. It all was exposed little later. Pretty sure russians are no fools who would invade a country with stocks of just few months. Even Pakistan and India can now fight for 3 months russia is leagues ahead. Do you think country like russia who produces engines dont have backup reserves of supplies to support production ? China and iran alone are backup for supplies or materials to make ammo.

 

[F-22Raptor]

I’ve pointed out many times objective information that can be found.
Case in point Russia has enacted their own airline maintenance, why?
Because they don’t have access to spare parts and no money to perform them. This will no only void any western aircraft warranties but more importantly jeopardize Russian lives as needed maintenance won’t be performed or performed to international standard. This is just one example, the Russian economy is already done and will only get worse.
Don’t be ignorant


And americas stocks are just fine, we have more arms rotting in the desert that Russia has active, again these are facts

The US is nowhere close to running out of ammo . He keeps throwing that s**t against the wall hoping it sticks.

 

[RoadAmerica]

Just like world thought after ww1 germans had no steel to build a single tank to one of finest armoured forces in world. It all was exposed little later. Pretty sure russians are no fools who would invade a country with stocks of just few months. Even Pakistan and India can now fight for 3 months russia is leagues ahead. Do you think country like russia who produces engines dont have backup reserves of supplies to support production ? China and iran alone are backup for supplies or materials to make ammo.

I think they’ve already shown they don’t have sufficient reserves or haven’t you been paying attention for the past 6 months?
Also you seem to ignore much of post soviet industrial base was in…..you guessed it Ukraine
Hence why they can’t make large combat ships like aircraft carriers, again this has all been pointed out many times.

 

[Viet]

From all the OSINT source, they all suggested that Russia DID NOT try to reinforce Northern Luhansk, in fact, thinning them out and continue move these troop south. They have transfer at least 20 BTG from Eastern Front to Southern front.

Looks like the Russian is giving up defending the Svatove-Kreminna-Sieverodonetsk Line. If the Ukrainian break thru that line that's game over for Luhansk, it will be going back to pre-2022 line or maybe worse.

Looks like the Russian are focus on Southern Front. Which does not make sense as the current war goal for them is to capture the entire Donbas. You can't do that if you lose Luhansk or at least part of it.

yes, while the russians focusing on terror attack on Ukraine infra, the front is moving elsewhere. that looks promising, Ukraine army advancing fast closing at Luhanst. the russians risk being encircled. let´s them. will be interesting event.

 

[alimobin memon]

I think they’ve already shown they don’t have sufficient reserves or haven’t you been paying attention for the past 6 months?
Also you seem to ignore much of post soviet industrial base was in…..you guessed it Ukraine
Hence why they can’t make large combat ships like aircraft carriers, again this has all been pointed out many times.

Ammunition production for 1000s of artillery and tanks plus vehicles in reserve is still possibility for russia to keep going on. They have so much weaponry in reserve be it old 80s and 90s tech but still pack a punch.


Ukraine is fighting hard it may win but not so easily and quickly. More lands will be liberated back by ukraine and will be taken back by russians and again ukraine will take back but this cycle will keep going on for a while before one loses.

 

[Wood]

From all the OSINT source, they all suggested that Russia DID NOT try to reinforce Northern Luhansk, in fact, thinning them out and continue move these troop south. They have transfer at least 20 BTG from Eastern Front to Southern front.

Looks like the Russian is giving up defending the Svatove-Kreminna-Sieverodonetsk Line. If the Ukrainian break thru that line that's game over for Luhansk, it will be going back to pre-2022 line or maybe worse.

Looks like the Russian are focus on Southern Front. Which does not make sense as the current war goal for them is to capture the entire Donbas. You can't do that if you lose Luhansk or at least part of it.

Loosing Kherson city will be a great blow to Russian propaganda. Propaganda is more important than any military or political objective for the dictator

 

[925boy]

I think they’ve already shown they don’t have sufficient reserves

how did they show this? you just keep referencing bogus sht to make bad points.

or haven’t you been paying attention for the past 6 months?

oh i have- Ukraine's been losing everything to Russia -teritory, oil, gas, arable land, what else?

Also you seem to ignore much of post soviet industrial base was in…..you guessed it Ukraine

Thats irrelevant to this discussuion since Ukraine has Per capita income of 3rd world couintry and is ANOTHER banana republic US has to support fully because it cant support itself, but yes men is US gov's preferred type of coiuntry sinceits ego is too sensitive to take independent countries as allies.

Hence why they can’t make large combat ships like aircraft carriers, again this has all been pointed out many times.

Ukraine is a fukn relic, and NATO was trying to use it as a pawn with great potential against Russia, but Russia intervened, so no NATO reality for Ukraine anymore.

 

[RoadAmerica]

Ammunition production for 1000s of artillery and tanks plus vehicles in reserve is still possibility for russia to keep going on. They have so much weaponry in reserve be it old 80s and 90s tech but still pack a punch.


Ukraine is fighting hard it may win but not so easily and quickly. More lands will be liberated back by ukraine and will be taken back by russians and again ukraine will take back but this cycle will keep going on for a while before one loses.

Hey we can agree on something!!!
But as more western high tech weapons come into Ukraine the less the numerical advantage the Russians have will make a difference.
You are correct this will be a long back and forth war, but Russia will wind up the looser economically

how did they show this? you just keep referencing bogus sht to make bad points.

oh i have- Ukraine's been losing everything to Russia -teritory, oil, gas, arable land, what else?

Thats irrelevant to this discussuion since Ukraine has Per capita income of 3rd world couintry and is ANOTHER banana republic US has to support fully because it cant support itself, but yes men is US gov's preferred type of coiuntry sinceits ego is too sensitive to take independent countries as allies.

Ukraine is a fukn relic, and NATO was trying to use it as a pawn with great potential against Russia, but Russia intervened, so no NATO reality for Ukraine anymore.

Here’s my reply
Educate yourself

 

[jhungary]

Just like world thought after ww1 germans had no steel to build a single tank to one of finest armoured forces in world. It all was exposed little later. Pretty sure russians are no fools who would invade a country with stocks of just few months. Even Pakistan and India can now fight for 3 months russia is leagues ahead. Do you think country like russia who produces engines dont have backup reserves of supplies to support production ? China and iran alone are backup for supplies or materials to make ammo.

Actually, a great deal of "German" tank build after WW1 are built by Sweden, and store there until they were used in WW2.
Germany was limited to the number of tanks they can have. And it does not have any bearing as to why German Tank is one of the finest in the world, it is related to the doctrine, as in how they use them, instead of the equipment alone. In fact, Tiger Tanks is not at all as advance as people think., it still use bolted on armor plate and straight armor also torsion bar for suspension which contribute to the slow speed and low maneuverability. When Slope Armor, Armor chassis and Individual suspension already available

On the other hand, Russia had already loss 1/3 of all their armor force (including reserve) as per confirmed OSINT, would probably be more in reality, if Russia is being attack right now, I don't think they can mount a combine arms defence anymore as their remaining armored force are in despair state and their unit is far and few in between, don't forget Russia have a huge landmass....

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

From all the OSINT source, they all suggested that Russia DID NOT try to reinforce Northern Luhansk, in fact, thinning them out and continue move these troop south. They have transfer at least 20 BTG from Eastern Front to Southern front.

Looks like the Russian is giving up defending the Svatove-Kreminna-Sieverodonetsk Line. If the Ukrainian break thru that line that's game over for Luhansk, it will be going back to pre-2022 line or maybe worse.

Looks like the Russian are focus on Southern Front. Which does not make sense as the current war goal for them is to capture the entire Donbas. You can't do that if you lose Luhansk or at least part of it.

Kharkov is not important to Russia. Kherson is important because of water to Crimea. And they already took the land bridge to Crimea. Luhansk and Donetsk both border Russia. They don't need Kharkov for supply line.

 

[alimobin memon]

Hey we can agree on something!!!
But as more western high tech weapons come into Ukraine the less the numerical advantage the Russians have will make a difference.
You are correct this will be a long back and forth war, but Russia will wind up the looser economically


Here’s my reply
Educate yourself

Agreed. But lets not conclude russia loosing so early. Remember as more russia loses more russia gets desperate and more they invest and send more forces to theatre.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1571524980143276038

I think they’ve already shown they don’t have sufficient reserves or haven’t you been paying attention for the past 6 months?
Also you seem to ignore much of post soviet industrial base was in…..you guessed it Ukraine
Hence why they can’t make large combat ships like aircraft carriers, again this has all been pointed out many times.

What makes you sure Russia can't make aircraft carrier? Russian warships are some of the best in the world.

Gremyashchiy-class corvette - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[thetutle]

So NATO can expect Chinese indirect and direct support of the Russians. The only lever the West have is threat of economic and financial damage to China but the Chinese at the moment have showed that the economic impacts are mutually inclusive on both the US and China which has caused the US to back off.

China's support for Russia, if it exists in practical terms will have major costs.

On the other hand, you can argue the war with Taliban is not over because US have the capacity and power to reinvade Afghanistan if Taliban cross the line again (Like do another 9/11)

If Taliban repeat the 9/11 scenario, I'm not sure the US would be so foolish to invade again. If they do, the lunatics are running the asylum.

Same as the Vietnam case, we cannot bound Afghanistan together, unless it is our intention to annex it. You can say the US did not come out "Winning" the war outright, but whether it had lost, it's debatable, because you will need to actually "Lose" something to lose a war, then the question will become "What did US lost" ?

US did lose control of Afghanistan. It had control through waging war, then it lost it.

If Putin drops tactical nukes in Ukraine, then what are the options for the US?

The options are many and catastrophic for Russia. Firstly, they would have to regime change one way or another. They would get involved openly and it would be a very very dangerous situation. I would not rule anything out. from total blockade to decapitaiton strikes.

Colonoization was not an expertise of Europeans only. They were damned good at it. But Moghuls originated in Afghanistan and expanded all to India and subjugated India for 100s of years.

Arabs all the way to Spain.

Ottoman Empire.

Mongols all the way to Iraq.

Only difference is the Europeans held on for a 100 or 200 years longer. Some colonization was brutal (Belgium in Congo).

All strong powers conquer. That does not make it right, but it occurs.

TRue, but the other poster was suggesting the west colonised the world when they were weak and undeveloped. This is unlikely. Poor undeveloped nations don't colonise the world. Its the powerful ones that do. The west was powerful, hence it colonised the world.

But if you read Einstein prediction on WW4 then we come closer. Global warming 10^6. nobody, no human, no animal would survive. Well, accept cockroaches. they would survive.

I think global nuclear war is very survivable for most in the developed world anyway.

As sex offender he was caught talking to minor, exposed and convicted he will rot in hell for that.

But would this make his analysis on military studies wrong as he was general too ?

He is actually appreciating the valor of ukrainians who are fighting a big military.

Hes very compromised.

Looks like the Russian are focus on Southern Front. Which does not make sense as the current war goal for them is to capture the entire Donbas. You can't do that if you lose Luhansk or at least part of it.

I think Russias larger strategic goal is to make Ukraine landlocked. so whilst Donbas is nice to have, I think it's secondary objective. Russia can live without Donbas, but it needs the whole coastline. This will be the toughest fight.

 

[alimobin memon]

Actually, a great deal of "German" tank build after WW1 are built by Sweden, and store there until they were used in WW2.
Germany was limited to the number of tanks they can have. And it does not have any bearing as to why German Tank is one of the finest in the world, it is related to the doctrine, as in how they use them, instead of the equipment alone. In fact, Tiger Tanks is not at all as advance as people think., it still use bolted on armor plate and straight armor also torsion bar for suspension which contribute to the slow speed and low maneuverability. When Slope Armor, Armor chassis and Individual suspension already available

On the other hand, Russia had already loss 1/3 of all their armor force (including reserve) as per confirmed OSINT, would probably be more in reality, if Russia is being attack right now, I don't think they can mount a combine arms defence anymore as their remaining armored force are in despair state and their unit is far and few in between, don't forget Russia have a huge landmass....

1/3rd is exaggerated all forces exaggerate figures. I can guarantee you that if russia had lost so much equipment it would have completely abandon this operation. Osint like organization gathers data for publicly available data which can be fabricated. The tweeter counts of kills could be same equipment images taken from different angle and moved to other place to take more images. This is information era no more nuclear era. Fabricated information from both russia and ukraine both is making the real conclusion beyond possible.

When the war ends the neutral people like me will be shocked when one of them is winner cause most probably 24 hrs before end of war it would look like both are punching through each other and winning.

When americans and ukrainians and other nato supporters say ukraine is winning or using there own social media platforms to promote that ill never take that seriously.

When putin and his supporters say I still wont believe.

Only neutral perspective are right and apparently the role of neutrals is limited in providing right information because global media is in control of western powers.

 

[gambit]

I remember our friend Suvorov making much the same point about Russian political leadership, whether it was the Tsars or the Bolsheviks or Stalin, and now Putin continuing a Russian tradition of ego-dominated autocrats.

Imagine what Russia could have been like today if instead of Putin someone like Navalny had succeeded Yeltsin. With the oil revenues earned while the prices were high Russia could have truly prospered, diversifying their economy, investing more in infrastructure and a larger manufacturing base and high tech industries. Without the need of an ego creating imaginary enemies, a Navalny type leader could have even made Russia an EU member and possibly joined Nato, becoming a responsible member of the European and international community.

Instead, they have the man who has led them into this mess, and there doesn't seem to be a way out for them

We do have histories of countries that changed leaderships that ended up changes of their natures, but the common denominator seems to be size, as in the smaller the country, the easier it is to change, not guaranteed, but just easier. SKR, JPN, Singapore that have the reputation of being the only successful 'benevolent dictatorship' under Lee Kuan Yew, just a few in Asia. Europe post WW II radically changed. Not all of them at the same time, but changed nevertheless. There are plenty of public analyses from academic to popular authors pointing to the same conclusion that the issue is not the nature of leadership but how easy it is to change, from a 'bad' government to a 'good' one, and vice versa. Geopolitical borders have always been the dominant factor in creating the initial impression of how 'great' is a country, which of course, influence political leaders in supporting that impression. The sheer geography of Russia seems to be the blockage for change.

Gorbachev did not break up the Soviet Union but his policies enabled that dissolution. Yeltsin ended up with 'only' Russia, and Russia proper was no small matter to start, and managed to maintain the status quo, probably because he was too drunk to think of anything larger. Putin came from the Soviet era and he never knew 'only' Russia. It looks like Russia need leaders who know 'only' Russia. A tragic past compels the people not to replicate that past, but there are plenty of Russians who do not believe the Soviet era was tragic and that given the scope of Soviet presence in the world, that past was 'glorious'. What is an ambitious and nascent leader to do with such a bloc? Ignore them? Hardly. I do not think that Navalny or similar reformists can ignore them. Placate them? With what? How about we bring back Ukraine? After all, the Ukrainians are our cultural and genetic cousins, right? Ukraine maybe a military gamble, but not an intellectual one for Putin. Or anyone like him, for that matter.

Russia cannot expand into Asia, China will see to that containment. That leave westward expansion. The EU and NATO must get stronger, economically and militarily. The world know 'only' China, 'only' the US, and so on. But the Russian people have two entries in their collective intellect: Russia and the Soviet Union. To be blunt about it, if the world allows Russia to chose, the Soviet Union WILL reincarnate into something new.