Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1650235286499074048

 

[Meengla]

If Putin dies then Medvedev becomes president. Medvedev is a very cruel man.

I doubt that.
Putin is a once in a century kind of guy. He revived Russia from the lows of Yeltsin (an almost CIA agent!) era to big heights. Putin will be talked about in Russian or even global history like a giant--and giants don't have to be 'good'. Putin is extremely aware of his 'historic' place. You may call him Deneres Tygerian of Russia from the final few seasons! He will not stop the Ukraine war until he achieves a 'victory'.
Medvedev is no Putin. Mark my words: The war, if it is still going on, will wind down quickly if/when Putin dies.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

The war, if it is still going on, will wind down quickly if/when Putin dies.

No way the war ends this century.

 

[The SC]

Bakhmut Battle Is Heating Up. Ukraine DRG In Kherson. Military Summary And Analysis 2023.04.23​

 

[MeFishToo]

I dont understand why people believe Russia would use “tactical” nukes in Ukraine, if they are forced to retreat. Theyre not even using its cruise and balistic missiles targeting ukraines armed forces. I believe the russian MOD has very little situational awareness, compared to Ukraine, and those tactical nukes would just make alot of noise, because they would only have effect on stationary civilian targets, resulting in unconditional support for Ukraine.
Nuclear armed countries have lost wars and retreated for decades, including Russia (USSR), and none did nuclear retaliation.

 

[Meengla]

Everyone keeps saying Russia will use tactics nukes, which goes to show me that nobody on this forum even knows how tac nukes are even used.
You can't just use tac nukes to destroy defenses, that's not how they work. Also using nukes won't actually cause Ukraine to surrender either, if anything it would justify NATO getting directly involved, as NATO has said that this is their red line. This is also something China will not tolerate, as it's a Chinese red line as well.
Russia will lose, simply because Russia has not been able to slow down or stop the flow of weapons coming into Ukraine, nor have they been able to stop the flow of newly trained Ukrainian and foreign personnel coming into Ukraine.
The Russians are barely making progress in Bakhmut, while Ukraine is gearing up for a major offensive, with news out that they've pushed Russian forces in Kherson and established a beach head into Southern Kherson region. Zaporizhzhia is already seeing the Ukrainians start conducting shaping operations and accumulation of forces/resources.
China will tolerate Russia losing, they won tolerate a Russian collapse. They want Russia to lose as it benefits China. They don't want Russia to fall apart because they want a junior partner on their northern border that's stable and does as ordered by China.

Hah!? NATO had tactical nukes exactly to neutralize the larger USSR forces. The mindset was of from the World War II or earlier times but that mindset is still valid and prevalent. Small nukes to destroy enemies' formations have been in the military doctrines since World War II. Pakistan also has that. So does Israel. So does NATO.

What is NATO going to do if/when Russia launches some tactical nukes on the Ukrainian military formations?? Don't you know that Russia had publicly moved its strategic nukes to some kind of next stage of launch against the West shortly after this war begain? It was not such a hidden warning. NATO can't do jack directly against Russia!!! The USSR maybe gone but Russia still has the technical knowhow, the satteite intelligence setup, and indeed the lethality to destroy NATO in a M.A.D war.
About China: There is now a consensus that China WILL supply Russia the required weaponry if it comes to that, otherwise China is next!! But the calculus for that has to materialize first. We can all learn a lot from Ray McGovern, who is a Washington insider, about the ongoing war. He has said so: China will supply Russia the weaponry if it comes to that.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1650266101626945539

 

[MeFishToo]

Hah!? NATO had tactical nukes exactly to neutralize the larger USSR forces. The mindset was of from the World War II or earlier times but that mindset is still valid and prevalent. Small nukes to destroy enemies' formations have been in the military doctrines since World War II. Pakistan also has that. So does Israel. So does NATO.

What is NATO going to do if/when Russia launches some tactical nukes on the Ukrainian military formations?? Don't you know that Russia had publicly moved its strategic nukes to some kind of next stage of launch against the West shortly after this war begain? It was not such a hidden warning. NATO can't do jack directly against Russia!!! The USSR maybe gone but Russia still has the technical knowhow, the satteite intelligence setup, and indeed the lethality to destroy NATO in a M.A.D war.
About China: There is now a consensus that China WILL supply Russia the required weaponry if it comes to that, otherwise China is next!! But the calculus for that has to materialize first. We can all learn a lot from Ray McGovern, who is a Washington insider, about the ongoing war. He has said so: China will supply Russia the weaponry if it comes to that.

NATO has the exact same ability to destroy Russia in a MAD war. Nuclear weapons are for show. Why would Russia commit suicide over a defeat in Ukraine?

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

NATO has the exact same ability to destroy Russia in a MAD war. Nuclear weapons are for show. Why would Russia commit suicide over a defeat in Ukraine?

There is no domestic support for war with Russia. Biden could do a Special Military Operation without Congress authorization but the American domestic response would declare it Biden's personal war and Biden lose election.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1650265177676193794

 

[The SC]

Massive Russian Gains l Russians Attacks Everywhere​

​

​

Predicting the Russian Summer Offensive after Bakhmut​

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Predicting the Russian Summer Offensive after Bakhmut​

I think after Bakhmut the next target is Adveevka, Marinka to secure the capital city Donetsk. Then Ugledar, Siversk, to isolate Kramatorsk.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1650277299252793344

https://twitter.com/x/status/1650186506194001922

 

[MeFishToo]

Forgot to mention Russias satelite capabilities are poor. They have practically no optical and remote sensing satelite survailiance. Last time I did some “google research” they had two optical survailiance satelites with a 0,5 meter resolution, and one remote sensing satelite. Western commercial satelites have a resolution of 0,15 meter.
Notice how Russia is making lots of drone footage public, but zero satelite images public. I will bet the reason is they have nothing to show for and no real satelite intel over Ukraine.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Forgot to mention Russias satelite capabilities are poor. They have practically no optical and remote sensing satelite survailiance. Last time I did some “google research” they had two optical survailiance satelites with a 0,5 meter resolution, and one remote sensing satelite. Western commercial satelites have a resolution of 0,15 meter.
Notice how Russia is making lots of drone footage public, but zero satelite images public. I will bet the reason is they have nothing to show for and no real satelite intel over Ukraine.

Russia has access to Chinese recon satellites. China has more recon satellites than any other country.

 

[That Guy]

Hah!? NATO had tactical nukes exactly to neutralize the larger USSR forces. The mindset was of from the World War II or earlier times but that mindset is still valid and prevalent. Small nukes to destroy enemies' formations have been in the military doctrines since World War II. Pakistan also has that. So does Israel. So does NATO.

What is NATO going to do if/when Russia launches some tactical nukes on the Ukrainian military formations?? Don't you know that Russia had publicly moved its strategic nukes to some kind of next stage of launch against the West shortly after this war begain? It was not such a hidden warning. NATO can't do jack directly against Russia!!! The USSR maybe gone but Russia still has the technical knowhow, the satteite intelligence setup, and indeed the lethality to destroy NATO in a M.A.D war.
About China: There is now a consensus that China WILL supply Russia the required weaponry if it comes to that, otherwise China is next!! But the calculus for that has to materialize first. We can all learn a lot from Ray McGovern, who is a Washington insider, about the ongoing war. He has said so: China will supply Russia the weaponry if it comes to that.

Modern war are not the same as the cold war. Tac nukes don't have the same effect, which is why the US and Russia were okay to get rid of them.

You have precision guided bombs and artillery that can do just as much damage to enemy formation, cost less than a tac nuke, and don't have to problem of nuclear fallout with radiation spilling across multiple borders.

Pakistan has them because both Pakistan and India are preparing to fight a war using old doctrine because they both have extremely old military equipment.

Israel has them not for offensive action but due to their Samson option, which is basically mutual suicide. A single nuke going off in anywhere near Israel/Palestine's borders has the potential to make all of Israel/Palestine uninhabitable.

Russia won't use nukes, because NATO would get involved militarily, and Russia won't risk nuking NATO as Moscow would end up in a nuclear fire itself.

Also, nuclear fallout Ukraine would 100% spill over into Russian territory.

Next, Russia hasn't done anything it hasn't done before. The "next stage" of nuclear preparedness is nothing more than buzz words meant ro drum up fear, but mean absolutely nothing because nuclear forces are always on alert. They are never not on alert.

Russia does not have the lethality to destroy NATO without committing suicide, which is why Russia will never use nukes.

There is no concensus in China for anything, you're just making things up as you go along. China will do what it feels is best, nothing more, but there is no consensus. China is not "next", they're current and Russia is just a distraction that China actually welcomes because it takes NATO's eyes off of China.

Finally, if Russia was willing to use nukes, they would've done it by now....they have not because they're not complete idiots.