Is that your fantasy or something? You realise that Algeria is the one closer to a civil war than Morocco is with your mummified diaper wearing president kicking the bucket soon and the ensuing power vacuum and power struggle? But I guess projecting your fears on Morocco makes you feel a little better.
When was the last time you visited Morocco?
The difference between Algeria and Morocco, is that Algeria is a solid state based on solid foundation, not like the french barn you call kingdom of Morocco..Bouteflika has been in mutant health shape since 10 years, if Algeria was Morocco, it would have been dis constructed like a lego puzzle...that is not the case and wont be the case for the centuries to come...
Read ...and weep..since you don't know your Sheharazade kingdom, I will bring it to you..
Morocco: the ingredients of a revolution come together
#Morocco
Amine Belghazi
November 27, 2018
From Jerada to Zagoura via the suburbs of Casablanca: the recent events highlight the context favorable to a revolution in which Morocco has been evolving since 2017
In Morocco, editorial writers have been wondering for several weeks about the future of the kingdom. The deleterious climate and the lack of visibility make us fear, at any moment, a switch to the unknown.
In the street, the language that usually excluded any responsibility for the royal palace is now pointing with an accusing finger, the direct responsibility of the head of state. Youth, in particular, shows a harshness of language never observed since the accession of King Mohammed VI to the throne in 1999.
Are Moroccans on the verge of a revolution?
Given the number of young people who will turn 25 between 2017 and 2020, the geographer Laurent Chalard believes that this period offers a window favorable to the revolution in Morocco (AFP)
According to the theory developed in 2015 by geographer Laurent Chalard, Morocco would in any case, since 2017, in a period conducive to uprisings.
According to him, the combination of three factors - authoritarianism, the fragile economy and the peak of birth 25 years earlier - greatly increases the probability of triggering a revolution.
The third parameter would explain the strong mobilization of protesters in Tahrir Square in Cairo in 2011 or in Habib Bourguiba Avenue in Tunis the same year. Indeed, birth volumes peaked in Egypt and Tunisia respectively between 1985-1988 and 1984-1987, which means that in 2011, the 25-year-old population was the largest pyramids of the ages of the two countries, thus catalysing the movements of disputes in the street.
"The emigration of Moroccan youth to foreign countries is not enough to contain tensions likely to lead to a revolution"
- Laurent Chalard, geographer
Contacted by
Middle East Eye , the researcher explains that from a demographic point of view, the period 2017-2020 offers a window favorable to the revolution in Morocco.
"Even if the civil birth data during the 1990s in Morocco are not quite precise, it is possible to reconstruct these figures from the 2014 general census data. Thus, the demographic transition, ie the process of moving from a rise in birth rates to a decline, spawned a birth peak between 1992 and 1995. This means that the 25-year-old Moroccan population will be the largest between 2017 and 2020, "says the geographer .
READ ► Social protest in Morocco: Does Mohammed VI have a plan?
"Traditionally, young people between the ages of 18 and 20 were considered a locomotive of revolutionary movements. Today, this is no longer the case. With the delay of the age of first marriage among young men, and the different disillusions that accompany it, a frustration situation is created marked by a loss of hope. I add that the emigration of Moroccan youth to foreign countries is not sufficient to contain the tensions likely to lead to a revolution, "he said.
The transformation of the family structure in Morocco would also strengthen the predisposition to trigger revolutionary movements.
The advent of a more consistent middle class
In this regard, a study commissioned in 2007 by the Moroccan government to the demographers Emmanuel Todd and Youssef Courbage on the cultural implications of the demographic transition in Morocco highlights, in the synthesis that "endogamy is one of the indicators of the anti-individualism of the family system: there is a relationship between the degree of openness of the family system and the degree of openness of the political system ".
However, the percentage of endogamous marriages (between members of the same family) in Morocco is much lower than that observed in Tunisia.
"The new modes of union will make it possible to stir people up by bringing together spouses from different backgrounds. These changes will favor the emergence of a more consistent middle class and a more egalitarian society. In fact, the demographic change announces, in the medium term, the advent of a more mature society for democracy, "reads the report.
Middle East Eye contacted Emmanuel Todd to gather his assessment of the analysis he developed a decade earlier. But he did not want to answer our questions.
For his part, Laurent Chalard believes that the fateful demographic transformation is now dangerously converging with the two other parameters that make the revolution almost inevitable, namely: authoritarianism and the inefficient economy.
"Morocco is a country with a low level of wealth. GDP per capita is three times lower than the world average, and the economy is not off the ground. Politically, Morocco is ranked in the 101 st place of the annual index of democracy published by
The Economist , and the use of repression, especially in the Rif region, marks a step back, "observes Laurent Chalard.
The constant postponement of the reforms has used the confidence placed by the people in the royal palace
As a reminder, the hirak of Rif is a social movement born following the death in October 2016 of the fishmonger
Mouhcine Fikri , crushed in a dump truck in the city of Al Hoceima, in the north of Morocco. This movement demanded, in addition to an impartial inquiry into the death of the young fishmonger, the construction of a hospital and a faculty.
From the perspective of the exercise of freedoms, Morocco is a dishonorable 135 th place in the
2018 ranking of press freedom published by Reporters Without Borders (RSF), the last two years have been marked by condemnations of several journalists and activists to heavy sentences ranging, in some cases, up to twenty years imprisonment.
READ ► Morocco: why reform no longer sells
The Moroccan Constitution of 2011, voted more than 98% of the votes for, promised the launch of the democratization project and an enlargement of the field of freedoms. The constant postponement of the reforms has used the confidence placed by the people in the royal palace.
Return in 2011. Shortly after the outbreak of the Arab Spring, Emmanuel Todd was the guest of the show
"Stop on Images" . Already at the time, the demographer was sounding the alarm: "If the people who government Morocco accept the idea of a move towards democratization and constitutional monarchy, things will go well. If they do not accept, things will not be as good! "
It is finally the second prophecy that will come true.
The king in the limelight
Closely following the recent social developments in Morocco, Laurent Chalard believes that Moroccan mentalities are undergoing a profound change: "With what happened in the Arab world, part of Moroccan society, young people in particular , begins to imagine the possibility of a change of political regime, unlike in previous years when there was a kind of immutability of the regime in place.
He adds: "I do not know if the Rif hirak is still perceived as an identity movement, but when it does not question territorial integrity and carries economic and social demands, mobilization and the contestation of power may spread to all regions of Morocco. "
On May 29, 2017 in Al Hoceima, protesters brandish images of Hirak leader Nasser Zefzafi to 20 years in prison for "conspiracy to undermine state security" (AFP)
A phenomenon of contagion that is already beginning to appear: in the east, in the mining town of
Jerada , in the south, in Zagoura, where the inhabitants have been organizing thirsty demonstrations for several months, and more recently in the douars Hsibo, Eljedid and Riki, near Casablanca, where the
dislodged population chained sit-in chanting virulent slogans addressed directly to the person of the king.
Therefore, the question arises: what could defuse this demographic time bomb?
One of the responses could potentially already be implemented. Indeed, on August 20, to everyone's surprise, the restoration of compulsory military service was invited to the menu of discussions at a cabinet chaired by the king. This bill, concocted in the utmost discretion and phagocyting public opinion, is aimed at young people aged 19 to 25.
READ ► "The army can not replace school! : The return of military service worries Moroccans
The text is expected to come into effect by the end of 2019, as Moroccan government spokesman Mustapha El Khalfi announced on 20 September. It is also planned, under the draft budget law 2019, a budgetary allocation of 500 million dirhams (47 million euros) for the establishment of compulsory military service in 2019.
A maneuver that Laurent Chalard calls intelligent: "The restoration of military service will serve to control young people and to transmit to them a set of values related to the defense of the regime."
In the Moroccan political class, there were many who justified the democratic delay by the security argument.
Today, it is clear that the mountain of authoritarianism gave birth to a mouse named stability.
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