Rebound To Russia: Amid Rafale Impasse, IAF To Buy 40 More Sukhois

[Srinivas]

After IGA is Signed Btw two Govt there is No turning Back 36+18 Will come In Every Circumstances.IN will also Prefer Rafale M over Mig-29 K For IAC 1,2

These sukhois will be integrated with Brahmos, not for carrier operations.

 

[Archie]

These sukhois will be integrated with Brahmos, not for carrier operations.

The Brahmos equiped sukhois were ordered in 2011 ie the previous batch of 42

This batch is being ordered because 250 Odd Mig27 and Mig21 in sevice need to be replaced asap

And just 36-54 Rafales and 120+ Tejas won't simply do

 

[sathya]

At the very least , we should opt for 40 Super Sukhoi, there after upgradation of previous mki

It doesn't make sense to mak old block su30 and upgrade at the same

 

[Blue Marlin]

i would imagine they would be a variant of the su-35. so it would be the su-35 mki

 

[Ankit Kumar]

i would imagine they would be a variant of the su-35. so it would be the su-35 mki

A Su35 with a Su30mki engine and the French/ Israeli systems which mki has, plus it should be dual seater, well that's tough.

Its easier to continue with the present mki and upgrade their Avionics in near future.

The Brahmos equiped sukhois were ordered in 2011 ie the previous batch of 42

This batch is being ordered because 250 Odd Mig27 and Mig21 in sevice need to be replaced asap

And just 36-54 Rafales and 120+ Tejas won't simply do

350.
Around 250 Mig21s and 100 Mig27s.

 

[Abingdonboy]

As I said appeasement..

And for F18 Line talks, here is what is the latest being offered under MII based on source.. (Dont blame me as its a person from Boeing India, whether MOD says yes or no to the proposal, dont know.. )

A 3D image

The strategy of ops

Its for both STOBAR and CATOBAR carrier...

The NTRO based requirement is 6 + 6
The INS Vikaramaditya has 10 rotary wings of Ka 31 AEW and Ka28 ASW. Boeing felt 6-10 V22 with an option of ability to fire harpoon can take over this role completely

The same for each individual IAC1 and IAC1 follow on 6-10 each

And finally another such numbers for INS Vishal and her follow on

So the Boeing strategy sees over next 2 decades the need for
NTRO - 12
IN - 30-50
IAF - 12-24
IA - 10-20
--------------------
Lower minimum ------------- 50
Upper maximum ------------ 100+

The Boeing USP is this
V22 cam carry four sidewinder missiles and four larger missiles, such as Harpoon missiles, or torpedoes.
Thus with AEWC role, it can act as ASW platform all in one itself...
India could ask for customizations as per their needs..

Now Boeing India desires kit based assembly for this...

This is the main agenda...

F18s line is being offered as a caveat for more strategic tech transfer post the strategic agreements (read CISMOA, BECA, LSA). The 18s outcome will purely depend upon the fact that IAF+IN wants dual benefit from MII so unless 18s get IAF approval, its a non starter. (For IAF its difficult owing to MMRCA results of 18s evaluation)

Not so sure about the V-22 AEW. The IAC-1 and Viky have their AEW assets (KA-31), yes it is not going to be as high performance as the V-22 but it is in service now and fully intergrated with the IN. Would the IN just throw this helo away? I doubt it.

And as for INS Vishal, the IN is deadset on the E-2D AWACS, the V-22 AEW on a CATOBAR carrier makes no sense- massive bird taking up vast space offering inferior performance to the E-2D.

So what is the reason IAF continuing to increase the number of elephants in the room?

LCC seems not that worrying as you may be looking at.

Because they are going to offset it with SQNs of higher availability jets (Rafales) so the average force availability will be high.The IAF isn't placing all their eggs in one baskect and going for 400+ MKIs.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

@Srinivas
Sir, the maritime strike role for stand off weapons atm is being handled by Squadron No 6 based out of Jamnagar AFS.. Its made up of Jaguars and carries Harpoons

Quarter Century of the Jaguar in India - Bharat Rakshak:Indian Air Force

In terms of equipment the IAF has roughly 12 air defence squadrons, 17 strike/ground attack squadrons, one maritime strike squadron, three attack helicopter units, nine transport squadrons, one tanker squadron and one AWACS squadron
..:: India Strategic ::. IAF: Aviation Capibility of the Indian Armed Forces


if we are planning for such a squadron role replacement it has to be DPSA not air Superiority/Air defence squadrons/Strike platforms.

The ability of a DPSA (Deep Penetration Strike Aircraft) coupled with Tactical Air Strike Aircraft envisions a ground attack role too.. So the jets has to have a AShM plus A2G role..

MKI can do it surely owing to its ability to carry loads of different ordnance but primarily it has to be Jags replaced by Rafales (twin engine replacement program).

Brahmos i doubt will see AshM variant as of now in a pure maritime role squadron.. Owing to size and only MKI carrying ability.. In 3-5 years we will see a smaller Brahmos with an ability to be carried by Mig 29s, Mirages, Rafales etc and 3 in Su30 MKI belly.. That may be then be given as secondary roles in Ground attack/Strike squadrons..

 

[Taygibay]

... reliable diplomatic sources disclosed to Arming India.

Would that be the journo's brother-in-law or superintendant? Such sources ( sic ) mean nothing!

Future of Rafale is not looking good. I'd still pitch for F-18 SH amid this cloud of confusion.

Con or cold fusion, that's a mystical idea : the F-18 did not make the MMRCA cut!
How strange that I would have to advise Bharatis to trust the IAF's selection process ...
especially since it was much vaunted by all, mother of all AC procurements bla bla...
most stringent evaluation in history bla bla ... until the Rafale won of course, tsssk!

It means this deal is over and above the 270 aircrafts already signed for, so rafale deal might be restricted to 54-60 aircrafts ? interesting to watch

Nah, pretty dull actually because the 2 are separate issues! Picture going to get the
ingredients for a meal. Your list says rice and curry. Being out of rice, you need to buy
enough for all but you only need a complement of curry as you still have some at home.
You buy more of one and less of the other but each has a minimum quantity to be had.

forget the strategic advantage of Growlers in any SEAD missions.

But India is not Australia quite yet in terms of relationship with the USA.
Others asked for Growlers and though not officially denied are still waiting
for an answer as the line is expected to close relatively soon! Strange huh?

With ref. to #hydra#

At PariK, agreed as usual. Doubtful yet on FGFA though.

... but why pay for all that when we have already paid for all that for the MKI?

Because they are not the same type. Rafale does more but cost less to operate.
MKIs are elephants and Rafales are tigers and IAF wants both to overcome.
The strategic aspect adds to this vision as PariK mentioned. As Abindon told you
in his following post.

As for those numbers you asked for :
Real price of MKIs as 440 crores in India and not 227 as in Russia :
IAF frets over Russian fighter aircraft deal - The Economic Times

It is an impressive strength for such a high-end and expensive ($67 million to $79 million) weapons platform.
With the Russians themselves hiking the price higher!!! Source :
Sukhoi-30MKI is India’s fallback fighter | Russia & India Report

Now a quote! Who said :
The Su-30 MKI is a fantastic aircraft but a generation behind the Rafale in technology. The Su-30 MKI is fully capable of not only guarding our skies but also delivering a very good punch to the enemy. It is truly a multi-role aircraft -- maintenance-intensive but a true deterrent in the real sense.
?​

Air Marshal (Rtrd) Anjan Kumar Gogoi in here :
Two new Rafale squadrons are fine, but IAF's dwindling fighters a worry: Former Air Marshal Gogoi - Firstpost

As for service hours IRL vs expected/fantasy :
Govt takes note of Su-30MKI's poor 'serviceability' | Business Standard News

Now those are, you'll notice, Bharati sources for the MKIs.
The French sources for Rafale are much easier to find because
we have our generals come, sit and chat with assembly members
as they do in the US :

Ainsi, en 2015, nous paierons les heures de vol du Rafale 14 % de moins qu’auparavant.​

That would be General Denis Mercier acting CEMAA [ Air Chief / Marshall / ze big boss ] speaking
in October 2014. Assemblée nationale ~ Compte rendu de réunion de la commission de la défense nationale et des forces armées
To help you, the most recognized if still imprecise value for a Rafale CPH is from Jane's at 16,5K.
Circa 2013. The sentence by our guy above say that from 2014 to 2015, the CPH went down by 14%.


At PariK-2, that's about right as usual. No two armed forces operate the same. Cost of
use per fighter is different. Each user has to compute if it's worth it under their own set
of constraints and parameters. That measure is to be taken every so often

Great day all, , Tay.

 

[Abingdonboy]

These sukhois will be integrated with Brahmos, not for carrier operations.

At the very least , we should opt for 40 Super Sukhoi, there after upgradation of previous mki

It doesn't make sense to mak old block su30 and upgrade at the same

These MKIs will be the last batch of MKIs made so will be made to the current production standard at the time (2018/19) ie the Super standard.

@Srinivas
Sir, the maritime strike role for stand off weapons atm is being handled by Squadron No 6 based out of Jamnagar AFS.. Its made up of Jaguars and carries Harpoons
View attachment 292798
Quarter Century of the Jaguar in India - Bharat Rakshak:Indian Air Force

In terms of equipment the IAF has roughly 12 air defence squadrons, 17 strike/ground attack squadrons, one maritime strike squadron, three attack helicopter units, nine transport squadrons, one tanker squadron and one AWACS squadron
..:: India Strategic ::. IAF: Aviation Capibility of the Indian Armed Forces


if we are planning for such a squadron role replacement it has to be DPSA not air Superiority/Air defence squadrons/Strike platforms.

The ability of a DPSA (Deep Penetration Strike Aircraft) coupled with Tactical Air Strike Aircraft envisions a ground attack role too.. So the jets has to have a AShM plus A2G role..

MKI can do it surely owing to its ability to carry loads of different ordnance but primarily it has to be Jags replaced by Rafales (twin engine replacement program).

Brahmos i doubt will see AshM variant as of now in a pure maritime role squadron.. Owing to size and only MKI carrying ability.. In 3-5 years we will see a smaller Brahmos with an ability to be carried by Mig 29s, Mirages, Rafales etc and 3 in Su30 MKI belly.. That may be then be given as secondary roles in Ground attack/Strike squadrons..

AFAIK No.30 SQN (Rhinos) based out of Pune has a (secondary) maritime role also.

 

[Blue Marlin]

A Su35 with a Su30mki engine and the French/ Israeli systems which mki has, plus it should be dual seater, well that's tough.

Its easier to continue with the present mki and upgrade their Avionics in near future.

not what i had in mind. a su35 frame and engine. coupled with Israeli communications and French avionics. but this will complicate the maintenance program, and the availability rate will be low unless India has the ability(and is allowed ) to make the parts and have a al31/41 overhaul/service-maintenance facility. also some of the su-35 tech can be transferred on to current and future mki's

 

[Ind4Ever]

On Jan 29th 2015, i gave the ffollowing how Russia's influential folks are talking with MOD/GOI

View attachment 292750
Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2] | Page 110



I had said on Feb 2nd, 2016 that DM MP is clear about adding some more MKIs,,,

View attachment 292748

Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2] | Page 113

Then came Another point
I said in coming times, we may see 100 odd fighters being retired and 81 odd pilots being available and i gave 2 options as below in picture.. and i said 40 MKIs in option 2 ..

Looks like @MilSpec discussion on this topic was spot on.. I was preferring single seaters to justify numbers but MOD/IAF planners looked at MKIs as we discussed and i pointed that 40 MKI option. Again on Feb 03,2016



View attachment 292749

Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2] | Page 115


Looks like at least we are able to decode few things source based and few based on facts and figures from public domain...

@Abingdonboy @MilSpec @anant_s @cerberus @Ind4Ever
Its a good ply bcz technically we know surely FGFA needs time and MKI at Nashik line needs either order or it will lie idle for a period of 3-4 years post the delivery of 222.
If you see article states we have got 175 out of 222 implying 47 left.
- At 12 jets a year we are talking for 47+40 = 87/12 = 7 years 3 months or uptill 2023 June timeline
- At 10 jets a year we are talking about 8 years and 6 months uptill 2024 September

Post which they foresee at least prelim work on FGFA line up-gradation...

Interestingly, what i am really concerned is what is the pace for the Super Sukhoi program upgrades.. Up-gradation per year at 12 jets would mean 312/12 = 26 years to upgrade the last of the produced ones.. Implying a jet made in 2023-24 will be upgraded in 2049-50. Surely, i think in practical sense, the Super program needs far more numbers per year up-gradation and a dedicated place in Nashik plant.

Now going by past history, i hope HAL does nt slow it to under 12 per year bcz then the upgradation will come much closer to 30 years or almost whole lifetime of a jet... A more clear program for Super upgrade would be good.. i hope within the goodies this aspect is taken care properly...

Its a good move nonetheless.. We keep Russia also satisfied and dont make them look for 24-40 jets sale to any other country in our sub continent for wanting funds or trying to pass a message to us.. In the meantime, its time for Dassault and French government to up the ante and finish the 36 and MII part... Bcz message seems to be clear.. we are anyway going for Rafales.. and we have appeased Russia as a first step along with passing the buck to deliver what we want at mutually agreeable terms to Dassault..

@Taygibay @Vauban
Interesting developments... 60 FGFA + 40 MKI = 100 heavy additions...
You bet 200 medium additions coming under MII (my fav Rafales) or you see as i said earlier - baby steps to just hi-lo instead of hi-med-lo...

Bro but why we don't get upgraded MKI... Anyways our current supply line will take couple more years. This another 40 could take another 3 years at least if am not wrong?

 

[Abingdonboy]

Bro but why we don't get upgraded MKI... Anyways our current supply line will take couple more years. This another 40 could take another 3 years at least if am not wrong?

This batch of 40 WILL be upgraded (to at least MLU standard if not the full spec "Super"). This is because they won't be in service before 2020/1.

not what i had in mind. a su35 frame and engine. coupled with Israeli communications and French avionics. but this will complicate the maintenance program, and the availability rate will be low unless India has the ability(and is allowed ) to make the parts and have a al31/41 overhaul/service-maintenance facility. also some of the su-35 tech can be transferred on to current and future mki's

The difference between the Su-35 and the Super Su-30MKIs will be almost negligable along with the fact that the IAF is very happy with the two seat pilot/WSO concept of the MKI.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Bro but why we don't get upgraded MKI... Anyways our current supply line will take couple more years. This another 40 could take another 3 years at least if am not wrong?

You know i am dying to find out answer to this question.. I will surely eat my source head on this !!!

 

[Blue Marlin]

Would that be the journo's brother-in-law or superintendant? Such sources ( sic ) mean nothing!



Con or cold fusion, that's a mystical idea : the F-18 did not make the MMRCA cut!
How strange that I would have to advise Bharatis to trust the IAF's selection process ...
especially since it was much vaunted by all, mother of all AC procurements bla bla...
most stringent evaluation in history bla bla ... until the Rafale won of course, tsssk!



Nah, pretty dull actually because the 2 are separate issues! Picture going to get the
ingredients for a meal. Your list says rice and curry. Being out of rice, you need to buy
enough for all but you only need a complement of curry as you still have some at home.
You buy more of one and less of the other but each has a minimum quantity to be had.



But India is not Australia quite yet in terms of relationship with the USA.
Others asked for Growlers and though not officially denied are still waiting
for an answer as the line is expected to close relatively soon! Strange huh?

With ref. to #hydra#

At PariK, agreed as usual. Doubtful yet on FGFA though.



Because they are not the same type. Rafale does more but cost less to operate.
MKIs are elephants and Rafales are tigers and IAF wants both to overcome.
The strategic aspect adds to this vision as PariK mentioned. As Abindon told you
in his following post.

As for those numbers you asked for :
Real price of MKIs as 440 crores in India and not 227 as in Russia :
IAF frets over Russian fighter aircraft deal - The Economic Times

It is an impressive strength for such a high-end and expensive ($67 million to $79 million) weapons platform.
With the Russians themselves hiking the price higher!!! Source :
Sukhoi-30MKI is India’s fallback fighter | Russia & India Report

Now a quote! Who said :
The Su-30 MKI is a fantastic aircraft but a generation behind the Rafale in technology. The Su-30 MKI is fully capable of not only guarding our skies but also delivering a very good punch to the enemy. It is truly a multi-role aircraft -- maintenance-intensive but a true deterrent in the real sense.
?​

Air Marshal (Rtrd) Anjan Kumar Gogoi in here :
Two new Rafale squadrons are fine, but IAF's dwindling fighters a worry: Former Air Marshal Gogoi - Firstpost

As for service hours IRL vs expected/fantasy :
Govt takes note of Su-30MKI's poor 'serviceability' | Business Standard News

Now those are, you'll notice, Bharati sources for the MKIs.
The French sources for Rafale are much easier to find because
we have our generals come, sit and chat with assembly members
as they do in the US :

Ainsi, en 2015, nous paierons les heures de vol du Rafale 14 % de moins qu’auparavant.​

That would be General Denis Mercier acting CEMAA [ Air Chief / Marshall / ze big boss ] speaking
in October 2014. Assemblée nationale ~ Compte rendu de réunion de la commission de la défense nationale et des forces armées
To help you, the most recognized if still imprecise value for a Rafale CPH is from Jane's at 16,5K.
Circa 2013. The sentence by our guy above say that from 2014 to 2015, the CPH went down by 14%.


At PariK-2, that's about right as usual. No two armed forces operate the same. Cost of
use per fighter is different. Each user has to compute if it's worth it under their own set
of constraints and parameters. That measure is to be taken every so often

Great day all, View attachment 292802, Tay.

i can sense the anger in your words but can you blame them!? come on....... 3 years and getting on to the 4th year. it depends on who you are. if your the iaf chief you just would like to have jets quickly and that can deliver a good punch.
if your from Sukhoi you would like India to buy the either more mki's or the su-35. and if your French you would want India to buy the rafale. the USA with the F-18 and so on with the euro-fighter consortium.

its got to the point where i think India is getting fed up and needs jets asap with out getting milked of extortionate amounts of money from France.

well all i can say is congrats you have befumbled India. the rafale is expensive, the su3/mki is maintenance heavy the Americans will come with strings and the European (eurofighter) is even more expensive than the rafale. i say just stick with Russia and get a su35 upgraded variant or play it safe and buy more of the current mki's but with parts and engine overhaul/maintenance for independence, so if there's any problems India can't blame Russia.

You know i am dying to find out answer to this question.. I will surely eat my source head on this !!!

well hal are building them and are due to finish production on the current order near the end of 2019 and early 2020. so a follow on would be about mid/late 2020.

 

[Ind4Ever]

This batch of 40 WILL be upgraded (to at least MLU standard if not the full spec "Super"). This is because they won't be in service before 2020/1.


The difference between the Su-35 and the Super Su-30MKIs will be almost negligable along with the fact that the IAF is very happy with the two seat pilot/WSO concept of the MKI.

Two pilot improves kill probability than with one pilot!! We have more man power so it's not the problem . And am not sure what we might actually get with this last batch. Am worried it could be in the same like BMP2 purchase. With same configuration.

And I was expecting New variant of Su35 in line with MKI. As we already looking to upgrade our MKI fleet with many shared features of Su35 why not buy Su35 instead MKI? Never the less additional MKI released from pressure on our depletion. Stop gap purchase. Better Russians gives our S400 asap