Rebound To Russia: Amid Rafale Impasse, IAF To Buy 40 More Sukhois

[PARIKRAMA]

This is a significant development running concurrently with the rapid headway in India-Russia talks on finalizing an agreement on an Indian commitment to the futuristic Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA). Arming India had on Feb. 3, 2016 exclusively reported a $3.7 billion deal-in-the-works for India's contribution to the development costs of the FGFA, and a further commitment to buy a minimum of 60 of these fighters.

On Jan 29th 2016, i gave the ffollowing how Russia's influential folks are talking with MOD/GOI

Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2] | Page 110



I had said on Feb 2nd, 2016 that DM MP is clear about adding some more MKIs,,,

Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2] | Page 113

Then came Another point
I said in coming times, we may see 100 odd fighters being retired and 81 odd pilots being available and i gave 2 options as below in picture.. and i said 40 MKIs in option 2 ..

Looks like @MilSpec discussion on this topic was spot on.. I was preferring single seaters to justify numbers but MOD/IAF planners looked at MKIs as we discussed and i pointed that 40 MKI option. Again on Feb 03,2016

Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2] | Page 115


Looks like at least we are able to decode few things source based and few based on facts and figures from public domain...

@Abingdonboy @MilSpec @anant_s @cerberus @Ind4Ever
Its a good ply bcz technically we know surely FGFA needs time and MKI at Nashik line needs either order or it will lie idle for a period of 3-4 years post the delivery of 222.
If you see article states we have got 175 out of 222 implying 47 left.
- At 12 jets a year we are talking for 47+40 = 87/12 = 7 years 3 months or uptill 2023 June timeline
- At 10 jets a year we are talking about 8 years and 6 months uptill 2024 September

Post which they foresee at least prelim work on FGFA line up-gradation...

Interestingly, what i am really concerned is what is the pace for the Super Sukhoi program upgrades.. Up-gradation per year at 12 jets would mean 312/12 = 26 years to upgrade the last of the produced ones.. Implying a jet made in 2023-24 will be upgraded in 2049-50. Surely, i think in practical sense, the Super program needs far more numbers per year up-gradation and a dedicated place in Nashik plant.

Now going by past history, i hope HAL does nt slow it to under 12 per year bcz then the upgradation will come much closer to 30 years or almost whole lifetime of a jet... A more clear program for Super upgrade would be good.. i hope within the goodies this aspect is taken care properly...

Its a good move nonetheless.. We keep Russia also satisfied and dont make them look for 24-40 jets sale to any other country in our sub continent for wanting funds or trying to pass a message to us.. In the meantime, its time for Dassault and French government to up the ante and finish the 36 and MII part... Bcz message seems to be clear.. we are anyway going for Rafales.. and we have appeased Russia as a first step along with passing the buck to deliver what we want at mutually agreeable terms to Dassault..

@Taygibay @Vauban
Interesting developments... 60 FGFA + 40 MKI = 100 heavy additions...
You bet 200 medium additions coming under MII (my fav Rafales) or you see as i said earlier - baby steps to just hi-lo instead of hi-med-lo...

 

[SUDIP]

On Jan 29th 2015, i gave the ffollowing how Russia's influential folks are talking with MOD/GOI

View attachment 292750
Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2] | Page 110



I had said on Feb 2nd, 2016 that DM MP is clear about adding some more MKIs,,,

View attachment 292748

Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2] | Page 113

Then came Another point
I said in coming times, we may see 100 odd fighters being retired and 81 odd pilots being available and i gave 2 options as below in picture.. and i said 40 MKIs in option 2 ..

Looks like @MilSpec discussion on this topic was spot on.. I was preferring single seaters to justify numbers but MOD/IAF planners looked at MKIs as we discussed and i pointed that 40 MKI option. Again on Feb 03,2016



View attachment 292749

Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2] | Page 115


Looks like at least we are able to decode few things source based and few based on facts and figures from public domain...

@Abingdonboy @MilSpec @anant_s @cerberus @Ind4Ever
Its a good ply bcz technically we know surely FGFA needs time and MKI at Nashik line needs either order or it will lie idle for a period of 3-4 years post the delivery of 222.
If you see article states we have got 175 out of 222 implying 47 left.
- At 12 jets a year we are talking for 47+40 = 87/12 = 7 years 3 months or uptill 2023 June timeline
- At 10 jets a year we are talking about 8 years and 6 months uptill 2024 September

Post which they foresee at least prelim work on FGFA line up-gradation...

Interestingly, what i am really concerned is what is the pace for the Super Sukhoi program upgrades.. Up-gradation per year at 12 jets would mean 312/12 = 26 years to upgrade the last of the produced ones.. Implying a jet made in 2023-24 will be upgraded in 2049-50. Surely, i think in practical sense, the Super program needs far more numbers per year up-gradation and a dedicated place in Nashik plant.

Now going by past history, i hope HAL does nt slow it to under 12 per year bcz then the upgradation will come much closer to 30 years or almost whole lifetime of a jet... A more clear program for Super upgrade would be good.. i hope within the goodies this aspect is taken care properly...

Its a good move nonetheless.. We keep Russia also satisfied and dont make them look for 24-40 jets sale to any other country in our sub continent for wanting funds or trying to pass a message to us.. In the meantime, its time for Dassault and French government to up the ante and finish the 36 and MII part... Bcz message seems to be clear.. we are anyway going for Rafales.. and we have appeased Russia as a first step along with passing the buck to deliver what we want at mutually agreeable terms to Dassault..

@Taygibay @Vauban
Interesting developments... 60 FGFA + 40 MKI = 100 heavy additions...
You bet 200 medium additions coming under MII (my fav Rafales) or you see as i said earlier - baby steps to just hi-lo instead of hi-med-lo...

Who the hell is your Source ? Are you a friend of son of MP or the son hmself

 

[SpArK]

@Abingdonboy Future of Rafale is not looking good. I'd still pitch for F-18 SH amid this cloud of confusion.

Thats been a realistic choice to me for quite sometime.

Global relations, Engine commonality, air exercises, "interests"... all point to super hornet as the ideal one.

 

[Skull and Bones]

Thats been a realistic choice to me for quite sometime.

Global relations, Engine commonality, air exercises, "interests"... all point to super hornet as the ideal one.

And not to forget the promise of full localized production.

 

[Archie]

Who the hell is your Source ? Are you a friend of son of MP or the son hmself

He probably had chai with a famous chai wala

 

[rockstarIN]

Is there a specific reason behind F-18, or is it because of that american origin. Cost couldn't be the reason bcoz L2 is eurofighter in that mmrca tender, and it holds more ground if Rafael deal fails. Until some extra ordinary diplomatic pressure by US for a FMS route, i dont think this will go through.

Still i am thinking Rafael will be there with IAF. Arming India may be a new russian sympathizer in the town.

I read this today in some other sites too, the news seems true..

F-18 SH is a bomb truck, with unmatched precision strike capability, and not to forget the strategic advantage of Growlers in any SEAD missions.

Any time Americans will pull the strings, there will be no spares and weapons..They hardly allow other Russian or Indian origin weapons to integrate!

 

[srshkmr]

Noob question : If they are produced in India do we have to pay them(Russians) extra for these 40 jets for licences ?

 

[$@rJen]

Noob question : If they are produced in India do we have to pay them(Russians) extra for these 40 jets for licences ?

i think No, the same we're paying now, we're already producing them under license, this 40 would be like additional jets

 

[INDIAISM]

I read this today in some other sites too, the news seems true..



Any time Americans will pull the strings, there will be no spares and weapons..They hardly allow other Russian or Indian origin weapons to integrate!

They will have problem in allowing us to integrate Russian origin weapons but I don't think they will have any problem in letting us integrate Israeli or Indian origin weapons or radar or other elctronic counter measures....

Don't forget that they are going to close F 18 E/F line anyway and any further order is nothing but bonus for them...

 

[anant_s]

Its a good ply bcz technically we know surely FGFA needs time and MKI at Nashik line needs either order or it will lie idle for a period of 3-4 years post the delivery of 222.

I don't think just to keep MKI line occupied they are buying additional MKIs, it looks like there is something more to it.

 

[ayesha.a]

Wait for reports from a more mainstream news outlet. I'm skeptical of articles that appear in blogs before appearing in newspapers or from news agencies.

If true, I really hope the Rafale is out. It is ridiculous to pay 8 billion dollars for 36 jets at this point of time, when the LCA is on the threshold of induction (ameliorating the numberr shortfall) and 5th gen alternatives are taking shape (to maintain qualitative edge).

Sure, the 8 billion includes costs of weapons systems, maintainence facilities, traininng etc, but why pay for all that when we have already paid for all that for the MKI? Adding MKIs is the most cost effective option at this point, not investing in yet another fighter type. Frankly, the costs being mentioned were turning obscene.

BTW i like SU30MKI the most , i dont know its like first love when i saw it for the 1st time(in real eyes) on my roof top in pune some 5 yrs back.[/I]

What was the MKI doing on your rooftop? )

 

[Abingdonboy]

@Abingdonboy Future of Rafale is not looking good. I'd still pitch for F-18 SH amid this cloud of confusion.

Is there a specific reason behind F-18, or is it because of that american origin. Cost couldn't be the reason bcoz L2 is eurofighter in that mmrca tender, and it holds more ground if Rafael deal fails. Until some extra ordinary diplomatic pressure by US for a FMS route, i dont think this will go through.

Still i am thinking Rafael will be there with IAF. Arming India may be a new russian sympathizer in the town.

I've been saying since 2012 (the height of the MMRCA saga) that the IAF would be getting >300 MKIs eventually, this has no bearing on the Rafale/MMRCA whatsoever though.

Another 40 MKIs changes nothing- it doesn't address the urgent needs of the IAF as these 40 will only be made AFTER this existing MKI orders at Nasik are completed so the earliest the first MKI of this 40 order will land with the IAF is in 2020/21- 4-5 years away. And secondly it still doesn't address the reason the IAF intiated the MMRCA process in the first place- it wants a strike fighter, the MKI is its air dominace fighter, if there was no need for the Rafale or a Rafale-like fighter the IAF would have just ordered 126-189 more MKIs years ago but the fact remains the MKI is not a substitute for the Rafale. It is far more expensive to run, it cannot do the same low level strike missions as the Rafale and it offers signficantly less availability.

IMO, this order is a carrot to the Russians and designed to keep the Nasik plant running as the FGFA (that is meant to be made there) encounters delay after delay. Without this order the plant would be shutting down by 2018/19 and the FGFA will only be in production by 2025- at the earliest- HAL/GoI/MoD are trying to prevent this.


As for the F-18, if you want to throw another 5-7 years away (talks+ setting up plant in India) before the first jet is delivered that is the way to go and that too with a product the IAF found to fail some of their ciritical tests the first time around.


@PARIKRAMA

 

[[Bregs]]

I've been saying since 2012 (the height of the MMRCA saga) that the IAF would be getting >300 MKIs eventually, this has no bearing on the Rafale/MMRCA whatsoever though.

Another 40 MKIs changes nothing- it doesn't address the urgent needs of the IAF as these 40 will only be made AFTER this existing MKI orders at Nasik are completed so the earliest the first MKI of this 40 order will land with the IAF is in 2020/21- 4-5 years away. And secondly it still doesn't address the reason the IAF intiated the MMRCA process in the first place- it wants a strike fighter, the MKI is its air dominace fighter, if there was no need for the Rafale or a Rafale-like fighter the IAF would have just ordered 126-189 more MKIs years ago but the fact remains the MKI is not a substitute for the Rafale. It is far more expensive to run, it cannot do the same low level strike missions as the Rafale and it offers signficantly less availability.

IMO, this order is a carrot to the Russians and designed to keep the Nasik plant running as the FGFA (that is meant to be made there) encounters delay after delay. Without this order the plant would be shutting down by 2018/19 and the FGFA will only be in production by 2025- at the earliest- HAL/GoI/MoD are trying to prevent this.


As for the F-18, if you want to throw another 5-7 years away (talks+ setting up plant in India) before the first jet is delivered that is the way to go and that too with a product the IAF found to fail some of their ciritical tests the first time around.


@PARIKRAMA

one thing is sure bro if the deal is clinched as being reported in next 2-3 months of FGFA then it will star moving in from 2019

 

[Abingdonboy]

Sure, the 8 billion includes costs of weapons systems, maintainence facilities, traininng etc, but why pay for all that when we have already paid for all that for the MKI? Adding MKIs is the most cost effective option at this point, not investing in yet another fighter type. Frankly, the costs being mentioned were turning obscene

The Rafale's higher upfront costs are MORE than cancelled out over the course of its life span vis a vis the MKIs. The MKIs are going to have truly horrific LCCs and this is elephant in the room that no one seems to want to talk about. Looking at upfront costs alone is rather naive and there is a reason why the Indian Mil has moved towards LCC analysis as the basis of all future procurements and incidentally why no Russian products have been succesful as a result (Mi-26T2, Mi-28, IL-78 etc).

one thing is sure bro if the deal is clinched as being reported in next 2-3 months of FGFA then it will star moving in from 2019

FGFA won't be coming before 2025- at the earliest my friend.

 

[cerberus]

Arming India
NEW DELHI, FEB. 10, 2016: The Indian Air Force (IAF) has initiated the procurement of a fresh lot of 40 additional Su-30MKI air dominance fighters at an estimated $75 million apiece, reliable diplomatic sources disclosed to Arming India.

The procurement is being taken up as a follow-on order to the 222 Su-30MKI fighters already contracted to be made under transfer of technology at Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)'s Nasik division.

Along with the initial 50 aircraft acquired in a flyaway condition from Russia in the late 1990s, the latest increment of 40 aircraft will take the total number of Su-30MKIs ordered for the IAF to 312.

This is a significant development running concurrently with the rapid headway in India-Russia talks on finalizing an agreement on an Indian commitment to the futuristic Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA). Arming India had on Feb. 3, 2016 exclusively reported a $3.7 billion deal-in-the-works for India's contribution to the development costs of the FGFA, and a further commitment to buy a minimum of 60 of these fighters.

The rebound to Russia takes places amidst a continuing impasse in Indo-French price negotiations for the import of 36 Rafale fighter aircraft for the IAF.

Observers also see these developments as a consequence of a determined rearguard action by Russia to protect its turf and reinforce its pre-eminence in the Indian defense aerospace market. Russia's traditional dominance in the Indian market has sought to have been challenged by the U.S., Israel and Europe in the last decade-and-a-half.

The reliance on the Sukhois extends the life of the Su-30MKI assembly line in Nasik by another decade. An estimated 175 of the 222 Su-30 MKIs contracted to be assembled in India are reported to have already been rolled out. The roll-out rate is between 10 and 12 aircraft a year. Post the Sukhois, the Russian complex at HAL will be kept alive with the licensed manufacture of the FGFA.

Interestingly, India and Russia are set to sign a deal for faster delivery of Sukhoi spares for the IAF. The Economic Times had reported in early December 2015, quoting Sukhoi Managing Director Valery V. Chishchevoy, that an Indian delegation was to deliberate on the spares supply deal later that month and the contract for the same would be signed at the earliest.

The Sukhoi resurgence and the FGFA inroads will directly impact on the market for the Rafale in India, keen observers of defense trade reckon. Although the initial negotiations are for only 36 Rafale jets for the IAF, France is already pursuing a detailed roadmap to notch up sales even beyond the original Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) number of 126 and also pitch the Rafale for the Indian Navy, sources inform Arming India. The Russian jets, clearly, stand in the way of these plans.

What is hard for a resource-strapped Indian defense establishment to ignore is that the Rafale is, reportedly, two-and-a-half times more expensive than the Rafale. The cost of 40 follow-on Sukhois to the Indian exchequer is about $3 billion, as against the reported $7 billion to $8 billion for the 36 Rafales.

However, IAF chief Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha has made it clear on more than a couple of occasions that Sukhois aren't a replacement for the MMRCA, under which Rafale is the chosen one.

Mian ki Daud Masjid tak!!!!! i have said earlier it really difficult to replace russia from delhi. Well any way we need numbers now, regardless of which ac TEJAS shudn't be derail from mainstream.

BTW i like SU30MKI the most , i dont know its like first love when i saw it for the 1st time(in real eyes) on my roof top in pune some 5 yrs back.

Great 300+ MKI will Serve IAF Till 2040 With Rafale's IAF+IN Combined