Rebound To Russia: Amid Rafale Impasse, IAF To Buy 40 More Sukhois

[srshkmr]

Some parts of the jet is not manufactured here, its assembled here from kits delivered by Irkut. We pay Russians for them too.

Yes we have to..

Yes. Royalty has to be paid. Apart from that we still import some items from Russia for our Sukhois.

Thanks . So if all parts are made in India then royalty has to be paid just like software purchase .

 

[ayesha.a]

From History of the rupee - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

View attachment 292767


1980-85 = Between 7.85-12.38
1985 USD/INR - 12.38
2011 July - ~46

We bought those mirages for approx 60 Crs per jet flyaway with weapons extra in 1980s or USD 6 Mn at USD/INR = 10 (for easier computation)

In July 2011 the Indian government has finally cleared the upgrade deal worth $ 2.4 billion (Rs 10,947 Crs) for 51 Mirage 2000 H/TH fighter planes of the Indian Air Force (IAF).+ Weapons extra

MLU cost per jet Rs 10947/51 = 214.64 Crs

Based on Indexed Cost of acquistion
Cost Inflation Index for 2014, 2015 and last 30 years

CII (cost index of inflation) figure for 1983-84 - 116
CII for 2011 - 711

So an asset acquired for Rs 100 in 1983-84 would mean
View attachment 292779
So index cost of acquistion = 100 x (711/116) = Rs 612.93 or Rs 613 approx

If i use this concept on Mirages deal, The Rs 60 Crs becomes Rs 367 Crs as on 2011

Thus if we compare the ratio of 214.64/367 ~ 58%

So its not that MLU was costly.. Its the multitude of factors like currency devaluation and inflation based effect...



@Abingdonboy @MilSpec @AUSTERLITZ @SpArK @anant_s @Taygibay @Vauban
Pls correct me if i am wrong

I don't understand your point - what has the monetary value of rupee through the past decades got to do with the price of mirage upgrades today? The contract for upgrading the mirages was signed in the past 3 years or so, and the price is obscene. 52 million dollars to upgrade a 25 year old platform, without any airframe strengthening or re-engining, is expensive no matter which way you cut it. That's more than or near the cost of a new mig-29K, or 2/3rd the cost of a brand new MKI, or near the cost of a brand new F-16 block-52.

In other words upgrading a mirage to serve 15 years at the most is as expensive as buying a comparable F-16 or mig-29K that can serve 30 years. Pakistan can buy new F-16s for the same amount of money we spend to upgrade a mirage. The former would last 30 years, the latter 15.

That's expensive. Historical values of the rupee is irrelevant to that fact. This is happening right now, not in the past few decades. It is expensive in dollar terms, and rupee terms.

 

[#hydra#]

Actually we should dump entire rafale program and go for few su34. Mix of mki & su34 will give IAF the much needed air. Superiority & strike capabilities,induct few squadrons of LCA mk1&mk2 which can be a very good replacement of mig21. Lastly pump huge amount of money for stealth gen5 AMCA,which I believe we can make a very decent medium weight aircraft. Till AMCA matures IAF should be satisfied with the upgraded mirages,mig29(upgraded) & darin 3 jags for medium class aircrafts.

 

[ayesha.a]

Of course I don't have the empircal evidence to back it up- that rests with the IAF and a few OEMs alone. But it is not really a huge revelation that Russian products are far more expensive over the course of their lives than Western products. A general rule of thumb is that a Western product will cost 2-3 its upfront cost over its life time, a Russian product will cost 4-5+.

By you your "general rule of thumb", the MKI turns out to be cheaper than Rafale for LCC:

Cost of Rafale : 150 million
LCC : 3*150 million = 450 million

Cost of MKI : 75 million
LCC : 5*75 million = 375 million

And I'm being very generous to the Rafale here. Most reports state that the flyaway cost of Rafale today in the present config is more than 200 million dollars.

Here:

France offers India fly-away Rafales at same rate as its own air force - The Economic Times

As per industry experts, the price of a Rafale to French air force works out to anywhere between $200-220 million.

And that's not including the weapons package, which is extremely expensive, and don't have a separate life cycle cost to consider. Or the additional costs of training and infra that would be needed. Simply the LCC of the birds already makes it more expensive, and then add the additional costs. To all appearances, the Rafale deal is NOT value for money. Far from it.


Sure, there is a wide acceptance that Russian products are maintenance intensive. IAF officers have said so on occasions, and they have also complained about difficulty of getting spare parts from Russia. But the claim that paying close to 3 times the flyaway cost will be offset by lower costs of maintenance, is a bit hard to swallow. That assertion should not be made so confidently, unless there are figures available, or at least such a statement is made by someone in the know.

From all available public source info, the obscene price of Rafales cannot be offset by lower maintenance cost. Even with the rule you stated.

Seriously? The A330 MRTT (that the Il-78 lost out to) and the Fennec (that the Ka-226T intially lost out to) are both FRENCH.

The Kamov wasn't mentioned in your post, and the A-330 can hardly be called exclusively French. It's pan-European, like the EF.

BTW the Fennec wasn't chosen, was it?

That's the reason that none of these examples you gave are relevant to countering my point.

[/SIZE]
Because they are not the same type. Rafale does more but cost less to operate.
MKIs are elephants and Rafales are tigers and IAF wants both to overcome.
The strategic aspect adds to this vision as PariK mentioned. As Abindon told you
in his following post.

The purpose of having different classes of fighter jets is that heavy, expensive ones can be supplemented by lighter, cheaper ones to make up numbers. That is why the USAF has a few hundred F-15s and thousands of F-16s. But if the lighter ones are more expensive than the heavies, there is no point in having both.

The need for an MRCA was that we have a sizeable force of top notch fighters, and we wanted smaller, lighter aircrafts to make up the mid tier and have numbers. But at the start of the MRCA process, if anybody thought that the MRCA would be more expensive than the MKI, then we would simply have bought more MKI. The ridiculous process of procuring an MRCA led to the very expensive Rafale being chosen, with no cost consideration.

If we had 250 Rafales, we would not have purchased MKIs - we would purchase or make cheaper, light fighters to complement them. Since we have MKIs, there is no point purchasing very expensive Rafales. The sensible thing to do is to get cheap, light fighters to beef up numbers. And it just so happens that we have such a thing, home made.

There is no shortage of quality in the IAF at the moment. In a few years, both F-35 and PAKFA would be available, and would bring a real leap in capability over all existing non-stealth fighters. If there is a shortage of quality in a few years, then getting 5th gen birds makes sense, not adding another expensive 4th gen one to the mix.

BTW, considering the figures you gave for CPFH, I think once again the MKI turns out cheaper, when considering acquisition cost and life cycle cost. That's how it seems from all available info.

 

[foxbat]

Is there a specific reason behind F-18, or is it because of that american origin. Cost couldn't be the reason bcoz L2 is eurofighter in that mmrca tender, and it holds more ground if Rafael deal fails. Until some extra ordinary diplomatic pressure by US for a FMS route, i dont think this will go through.

Still i am thinking Rafael will be there with IAF. Arming India may be a new russian sympathizer in the town.

Boeing CEO Pitches Super Hornet Fighter Jet To India

 

[MilSpec]

Boeing CEO Pitches Super Hornet Fighter Jet To India

Reject with a capital R

 

[kaykay]

Actually we should dump entire rafale program and go for few su34. Mix of mki & su34 will give IAF the much needed air. Superiority & strike capabilities,induct few squadrons of LCA mk1&mk2 which can be a very good replacement of mig21. Lastly pump huge amount of money for stealth gen5 AMCA,which I believe we can make a very decent medium weight aircraft. Till AMCA matures IAF should be satisfied with the upgraded mirages,mig29(upgraded) & darin 3 jags for medium class aircrafts.

Rafale is a done deal. There's no coming back now. Also Rafale is as good as MKI if not better in air dominance role while as good as Su-34 in ground strike role......Its a complete package in its own.

 

[thesolar65]

Main yeh Aircraft thread padh padh ke bore ho gaya hun!! Pata nahin kab kya dekhne ke liye milega??

 

[#hydra#]

Rafale is a done deal. There's no coming back now. Also Rafale is as good as MKI if not better in air dominance role while as good as Su-34 in ground strike role......Its a complete package in its own.

But at what price?let's assume a strike mission involving 2 su34 escorted with 2 mki,will 4 rafale can carry the same punch at same range I think it's not. And should compare the price of just four rafale with that of su34 mki combinations.

Also some reports says its jamming capabilities are as good as of that of present day growler(I don't know how much truth is there in it).

 

[kaykay]

But at what price?let's assume a strike mission involving 2 su34 escorted with 2 mki,will 4 rafale can carry the same punch at same range I think it's not. And should compare the price of just four rafale with that of su34 mki combinations.

Also some reports says its jamming capabilities are as good as of that of present day growler(I don't know how much truth is there in it).

Well yeah price is a bit on higher side but then it comes with some awesome goodies too. For eg. Rafale's Spectra EW suite is unmatched so far, More availability, less maintenance, one of the best AESA with GaN tech, Meteor, 14 hardpoints with 9000kg payload, very low rcs etc. Seeing all these tell me why can't it match( i believe it suppress), 2* MKIs + 2*Su-34s.

PS: sorry for typos

PS: sorry for typos

 

[cirr]

Go for Su-35s，buy at least 200 of them。

Our Russian friends can do with the money at a time when oil prices are scaling multi-year lows。

 

[kaykay]

Go for Su-35s，buy at least 200 of them。

Our Russian friends can do with the money at a time when oil prices are scaling multi-year lows。

I think super sukhoi upgrades planned for MKIs( AESA, uprated engines, reduced rcs, etc) will bring them to the level of Su-35s itself. Just keep rolling more MKIs( 350+) and upgrade older one is what India is planning it seems.

 

[cerberus]

I think super sukhoi upgrades planned for MKIs( AESA, uprated engines, reduced rcs, etc) will bring them to the level of Su-35s itself. Just keep rolling more MKIs( 350+) and upgrade older one is what India is planning it seems.

That's Totally Misconception Sir, MKI Has His Plus over Su-35 Even Today
With Dash III HMDS with HOBS (Dogfight Edge) And Israeli EW.Su-35 Has Slight Edge In RCS and better Radar With IBRIS-E PESA.That Will Be Covered In Super Sukhoi Upgrade When It is Mounted with New NIIP AESA and Virgilius AESA EW Suit (Mig-upg)and DRFM and Engine thrust Up to 30 % with FADEC Many Other Avionics Upgraded Included

Production of Tejas? Tag me when HAL makes more than 12. I am sure that time is still at least 3 years away.

And yes MKIs will keep coming. HAL needs to produce them in good numbers, the Chinese produce on average 24 airframe of Flankers per year.

HAL Trying Its Best Now Its Free Go By MOD the Full Scale Production Starts From Next Year
Full-scale production of Tejas by next year: Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar - The Economic Times
Full-scale production of Light Combat Aircraft Tejas to begin in 2017 - Airforce Technology

Go through My Previous Post HAL is Issued Tender in MII To Absorb TOT and Maintenance Duty to Private Firms To Shift the Load of 30+years on Corporate Giants

 

[#hydra#]

Well yeah price is a bit on higher side but then it comes with some awesome goodies too. For eg. Rafale's Spectra EW suite is unmatched so far, More availability, less maintenance, one of the best AESA with GaN tech, Meteor, 14 hardpoints with 9000kg payload, very low rcs etc. Seeing all these tell me why can't it match( i believe it suppress), 2* MKIs + 2*Su-34s.

PS: sorry for typos

PS: sorry for typos

First of all we should by goods based on our threat perception,mki & su34 and planned LCA(numerical superiority) is more than a match for any thing PAF can have in future.

Now when comes to China,except su34 no one can fly over Tibet and bombard mainland China. The mki & su34 again superior than their j10 & Chinese su30s. We want both numerical superiority & tech superiority of aircrafts to deal with Chinese. I still believing in quantity is having its own quality,imagine a scenario of we are having high-tech aircrafts like mki&su34 in hundreds.

Rafale's low RCS is its clean configuration RCS and we are not going to send our aircraft like that to battle airspace. Once you armed rafale with arms&ammunition its better to forget low RCS value. Spectre may be a good EW suit,but as I said earlier even su34 is also having very capable EW attack capabilities like EA growler. Regarding aesa,I do agry with you that it's one of the best radar. Regarding 9000kg payload capacity, let me ask you what will be the range of rafale with this much payload?it will be way less than that of even a fully loaded mki.

Lastly rafale doesn't have the range to carry out strike mission over Chinese mainland, only su34 can have that range.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

I don't understand your point - what has the monetary value of rupee through the past decades got to do with the price of mirage upgrades today? The contract for upgrading the mirages was signed in the past 3 years or so, and the price is obscene. 52 million dollars to upgrade a 25 year old platform, without any airframe strengthening or re-engining, is expensive no matter which way you cut it. That's more than or near the cost of a new mig-29K, or 2/3rd the cost of a brand new MKI, or near the cost of a brand new F-16 block-52.

In other words upgrading a mirage to serve 15 years at the most is as expensive as buying a comparable F-16 or mig-29K that can serve 30 years. Pakistan can buy new F-16s for the same amount of money we spend to upgrade a mirage. The former would last 30 years, the latter 15.

That's expensive. Historical values of the rupee is irrelevant to that fact. This is happening right now, not in the past few decades. It is expensive in dollar terms, and rupee terms.

For an asset you have brought in the past multi decades, if you plan to upgrade it, the assets past price has to be converted into present price to understand what will be the price of the upgrade,

In essence, the MLU cost vs benefit serves as a reminder to see if an Off the shelf new purchase will the similar capability can serve us better or not..

Thats the reason the past asset in this case Mirages purchase price has to be converted to understand present valuation and upgrade costing versus benefits.

Mig 29K and Mirages are completely different fighters..
Again MKI being twin engined is completely different and so is the cost/benefits

F16 Black 52
24 Jets purchased for Morroco in 2008
The Bush administration notified Congress in December that it planned to sell the fighter jets, plus engines, associated weapons and equipment in a deal valued at $2.4 billion.

Source F16 forum Morocco buys 24 Block 52 F-16's - F-16 News

using the same logic like the one you used for Rafale and dividing the whole purchase amount by 24, you Get USD 100 Mn as per 2008

Originally in 1996 F-16 Fighting Falcon unit cost was USD $25.67 Mn
From own PDF F16 blk 52 Flyaway approximated at USD 70 Mn flyaway
F-16 Evolves to Meet Changing Requirements

Thus buying this at flyaway and an equivalent cost for engines+equipment+ training + infrastructure+ weapons+ service+ others would have pushed per jet price closer to USD 120 Mn per jet.

Thus extending life for 15 years at USD 52 Mn << USD 120 Mn acquisition outright + op cost extra

On top possible issues like embargo seen in PAF F16 cases and spares issues..

Thus your whole assertion falls flat in terms of finance, strategic geo political considerations and most importantly trying to compare an MLU with an outright purchase without considering what else comes in the package...

Mirage upgrade purpose is just a stop gap for 15 years till another single engine jet (LCA) takes over and covers partially their roles if not fully and still maintain squadron numbers for dedicated roles.. On top they were the N weapon option for us for a very very long time and were maintained at 85% approx availability for strategic purposes.