Rebound To Russia: Amid Rafale Impasse, IAF To Buy 40 More Sukhois

[45'22']

On Jan 29th 2015, i gave the ffollowing how Russia's influential folks are talking with MOD/GOI

View attachment 292750
Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2] | Page 110



I had said on Feb 2nd, 2016 that DM MP is clear about adding some more MKIs,,,

View attachment 292748

Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2] | Page 113

Then came Another point
I said in coming times, we may see 100 odd fighters being retired and 81 odd pilots being available and i gave 2 options as below in picture.. and i said 40 MKIs in option 2 ..

Looks like @MilSpec discussion on this topic was spot on.. I was preferring single seaters to justify numbers but MOD/IAF planners looked at MKIs as we discussed and i pointed that 40 MKI option. Again on Feb 03,2016



View attachment 292749

Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2] | Page 115


Looks like at least we are able to decode few things source based and few based on facts and figures from public domain...

@Abingdonboy @MilSpec @anant_s @cerberus @Ind4Ever
Its a good ply bcz technically we know surely FGFA needs time and MKI at Nashik line needs either order or it will lie idle for a period of 3-4 years post the delivery of 222.
If you see article states we have got 175 out of 222 implying 47 left.
- At 12 jets a year we are talking for 47+40 = 87/12 = 7 years 3 months or uptill 2023 June timeline
- At 10 jets a year we are talking about 8 years and 6 months uptill 2024 September

Post which they foresee at least prelim work on FGFA line up-gradation...

Interestingly, what i am really concerned is what is the pace for the Super Sukhoi program upgrades.. Up-gradation per year at 12 jets would mean 312/12 = 26 years to upgrade the last of the produced ones.. Implying a jet made in 2023-24 will be upgraded in 2049-50. Surely, i think in practical sense, the Super program needs far more numbers per year up-gradation and a dedicated place in Nashik plant.

Now going by past history, i hope HAL does nt slow it to under 12 per year bcz then the upgradation will come much closer to 30 years or almost whole lifetime of a jet... A more clear program for Super upgrade would be good.. i hope within the goodies this aspect is taken care properly...

Its a good move nonetheless.. We keep Russia also satisfied and dont make them look for 24-40 jets sale to any other country in our sub continent for wanting funds or trying to pass a message to us.. In the meantime, its time for Dassault and French government to up the ante and finish the 36 and MII part... Bcz message seems to be clear.. we are anyway going for Rafales.. and we have appeased Russia as a first step along with passing the buck to deliver what we want at mutually agreeable terms to Dassault..

@Taygibay @Vauban
Interesting developments... 60 FGFA + 40 MKI = 100 heavy additions...
You bet 200 medium additions coming under MII (my fav Rafales) or you see as i said earlier - baby steps to just hi-lo instead of hi-med-lo...

Make that 2016 Jan 29
I am counting on your source for the Rafales and the carriers
Fingers crossed

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Make that 2016 Jan 29

Thats silly mistake... i am embarrassed

 

[MilSpec]

HA HA HA ---- Now I can say "I TOLD YOU SO".

This is post from may 2013....... @Abingdonboy @PARIKRAMA

Jags when bought were already reaching obsolescence, I doubt same is the case with MKI, And I am not disagreeing with you about the numbers that should be in IAF colors, I am just letting you know to be ready for a surprise, MKI numbers will exceed upto ~340.

Source: Air C.Marshal Browne confirms MiG-21 and MiG-27 to be phased out by 2019 | Page 4

Guys, this news made my day... I don't know if we realize this but growing awareness of military strength among our youth is very positive sign and it is a factor that drives change. Very Happy with this development.

Now lets get the rafales wrapped up and get them in the air.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

HA HA HA ---- Now I can say "I TOLD YOU SO".

This is post from may 2013....... @Abingdonboy @PARIKRAMA

Jags when bought were already reaching obsolescence, I doubt same is the case with MKI, And I am not disagreeing with you about the numbers that should be in IAF colors, I am just letting you know to be ready for a surprise, MKI numbers will exceed upto ~340.

Source: Air C.Marshal Browne confirms MiG-21 and MiG-27 to be phased out by 2019 | Page 4

Guys, this news made my day... I don't know if we realize this but growing awareness of military strength among our youth is very positive sign and it is a factor that drives change. Very Happy with this development.

Now lets get the rafales wrapped up and get them in the air.

For everyone

Excellent as usual.. ironically the discussion debate other side was sancho...

You know i miss that thread folks.. @sancho @Sergi @janon

 

[Techy]

Except the MKIs don't have EMP hardening (required for Nuclear strike missions), their airframes aren't certified for low-level strike missions and their radars don't have terrain mapping modes required for such low level misions. The Rafale will be the IAF's defacto strike bird- including for nuclear missions.

i doubt that but then let me check... bcz i dont think these are hardened for EMP shock..

Its not the case friends, I had a chance to talk with IAF personal who used to work in SFC (won't disclose the name and location of the base for obvious reasons) and came to know that SU-30MKI was the asset used for nuke delivery. Weapons were stored at de-mated state ready to be operational within a short notice. Delivery plateforms are always on standby with standard config. and in ready to fly state. Its a misconception that MKI can't be used for nuke delivery.

About spare parts, there is some contractual obligation which force us to use Russian parts despite half of them available in India at lot cheaper prices (thus leads to less availability most of the time due to delay in Russian supply) as per my source.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Any info on Su35S? I know it's not gonna happen But am quite sure that we seriously looked into it for the past 3 years wondering what went wrong. May be the 100 mil price tag after upgrades and shifting supply line to India or upgrading nasik production line?

The IAF wasn't blown away by the Su-35S and are quite convinced their Super Su-30MKIs will be of a similar spec. The price tag wasn't really considered- it isn't the job of the IAF's flying branch to look at price tags but make reccomendations. It was simply the product didn't impress them all that much.

IAF wasn't impressed with it, when they went for exercises in Russia ( but they were impressed with the PMU2 and later S400). Its not like every thing which is awesome in the world is needed by us. We should just make sure we fulfill our needs, and not be over ambitious.

True, but right now India's isn't even doing that- 42 SQN sanctioned strength, at this rate (even with an addtional 40 MKIs) the IAF will have 24/25 (about equivalent to the PAF) by 2022/3. As our friend posted on the IAF thread:

IAF is declining rapidly without new jets induction, the government shall take responsibility for it.

China last year add 82 brand new fighter jets to PLAAF. You guys need to catch up, or there is no fun for the game.

The IAF is adding about 1/4 of that (around 1 SQN of MKIs a year) and now is starting to phase out 2-3 SQNs of MiG-21/27 a year.

The IAF's troubles aren't going to be addressed by a single type- there needs to be multiple types and multiple production lines churning out fighters for the IAF at one time. The ideal situation would be 4 production lines- 2 for LCA (1 with the private sector), a Rafale production line and the Nasik plant all churning out birds for the IAF. This could see >3 SQNs of cutting edge birds entering the IAF every year- what a sign that would be!


@PARIKRAMA

Sorry bro, comepletly missed this post earlier.

- At 12 jets a year we are talking for 47+40 = 87/12 = 7 years 3 months or uptill 2023 June timeline
- At 10 jets a year we are talking about 8 years and 6 months uptill 2024 September

Actually the figures here are rather conservative. By all accounts the Nasik plant is churning out 1 SQN worth(18-20) MKIs every year so if there is just 47 MKIs outstanding (from the orginal order) then production will be finishing in 2018/19 which fits perfectly with what I have heard and with what HAL has been saying for years. The orginal plan of course was to re-tool and for the Nasik plan to start churning out FGFAs but obviously that will be an impossibility in 2018/19 so the MoD is throwing this lifeline of 40 to keep the line open until the FGFA is ready.

interestingly, unless the Nasik plant massively scale down their production the 40 order won't be enough to keep the plant open more than 2-2.5 years (so around 2021/2). I am going to predict now that another 40 order will be made for MKIs to keep the plant open until 2024/5 at which time the FGFA should be ready for production.

Interestingly, what i am really concerned is what is the pace for the Super Sukhoi program upgrades.. Up-gradation per year at 12 jets would mean 312/12 = 26 years to upgrade the last of the produced ones.. Implying a jet made in 2023-24 will be upgraded in 2049-50. Surely, i think in practical sense, the Super program needs far more numbers per year up-gradation and a dedicated place in Nashik plant.

Interestingly I've heard some things about this recently and let me assure you your fears are unfounded, the birds to be upgraded to the "Super" standard have already been earmarked and it won't take anything like 26 years to get them to that standard and any MKIs made beyond 2018 will be of this standard from day one.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

@Abingdonboy
I see Rafale deal going forward as a much bigger strategic game changer...

As i have written with 12 product rate in Nashik plan versus original plan for 16/year, we are going to take about 7 years so these 40 will come in 2021-23 timeline.. IF the production slows down add another year and it becomes 2022-24 types..

So this effort is for not keeping line idle.. Post this, we may see another 2 squadrons or roughly around 24-30 more to keep line occupied for another 2 - 2.5 years uptill FGFA timeline will is concretized and the line gets upgraded for FGFA production. I see FGFA around 2025-26 + or may be around 10 years from now.. So i see every possibility of another 24-30 MKI order making it closer to 340 as @MilSpec said..

Interestingly
@ 75% of 272 = 204
@ 75% of 340 = 255 Jets... Implying we are clear about wartime availability of at least 250+ MKis. Now thats a good strategy anyhow.. Thats 15+ squadrons available... A sizeable number for air dominance...

What i want now is a honest foray in wrapping up Rafale off the shelf and plan for MII...
As i said earlier time is money and we have limited 10-12 years before our next big investment matures in the form of FGFA and 15-20 years our AMCA program starts rolling...

Assuming MII takes 3 years to start, we have 7-10 years for inducting 100-150 jets at 14 jets a year to 112-160 at 16 jets a year. Since Merignac 2 lines can reach 33 i am assuming 14-16 jets a year is a strong possibility.... This is just for IAF..
IN needs can very well add up more...

GOI/MOD should not miss this opportunity and wrap it up... and most importantly Dassault should make use of the situation and finish this strategic foray...

Interestingly I've heard some things about this recently and let me assure you your fears are unfounded, the birds to be upgraded to the "Super" standard have already been earmarked and it won't take anything like 26 years to get them to that standard and any MKIs made beyond 2018 will be of this standard from day one.

If that happens well and good.. Originally read somewhere that 80 will go to Russia for first batch upgrades to Super config... and rest in India.. if from 2018 locally made are in Super config, thats a massive gain..

 

[kaykay]

In 2013, HAL produced 15 MKIs and since then I believe more or less but we are producing around same. 10-12 figure is a old one( before 2013)...

 

[cerberus]

@PARIKRAMA @MilSpec @Abingdonboy

The HAL Last Year on 16 july 2015 Issued A Tender Under MII For Absorbing TOT From Russia and MKI Fighter Fleet to be continuously maintained / serviced for next 30+ years.

Contents of Documents Below

Invitation for “Empanelling Vendors for Make in India Programme for SU-30 MkI”

REF: HAL/CD/617(RFI-SU-30 MKI)/2015 DATE: 16/07/2015



Sub: Invitation for “Empanelling Vendors for Make in India Programme for SU-30 MkI”

1. Background

1.1. Sukhoi-30 MkI is a twin seat, twin engine supersonic multipurpose fighter aircraft capable of day and night flying under all weather condition. The aircraft is powered by two powerful AL-31 FP engines with high thrust vectoring capability, fly-by-wire control in all axes, capability for in-flight refueling among other advanced features.HAL is manufacturing Su-30 MkI Aircraft under license from Russia.

1.2 Manufacture & overhaul of the Su-30MkI is carried out at HAL’s Aircraft Manufacturing Division at Nasik and the AL-31FP engine at Sukhoi Engine Division at Koraput. Various system LRUs are manufactured and repaired / serviced at HAL.

1.3 This fighterfleet of around 300 would need to be continuously maintained / serviced for next 30+ years.



2. Scope of ‘Make in India’programme for SU-30 MKI

2.1 This fighter fleet of Sukhoi numbering around 300 needs to be continuously kept flying fit for over three decades. HAL has established manufacturing and MRO facilities through ToT from Russia. There are further manufacturing and MRO technologies which have not been transferred under ToT. List of items / LRUs involved is placed at Annexure 1. In the light of long term support these technologies are to be established in the Country.Russian side / OEMs have expressed their willingness to transfer such Technologies to the Indian Industry.

2.2 In support of the above requirement a ‘MAKE IN INDIA’ conference is being organized at Moscow during MAKS Airshow (August 25th to August 30th) to facilitate B2B meetings between Indian industry and Russian OEMs.

2.3 Due to paucity of time, HAL is publishing the requirements under “Make in India” link in www.hal-india.com website. Indian vendors are requested to go through and respond directly to General Manager (Integrated Material Management), Corporate Office as per the procedure described in para 3.

2.4 Indian Vendors will have to visit Russia at their own cost for the “MAKS Airshow”. During the interaction with Russian Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), discussions can take place for understanding the technology and finalise a Business Cooperation model.



3. Procedure for Response:

The interested firms must fill the form of response as given in Appendix-A. The filled-in form along with required documents should be submittedto General Manager (IMM) through e-mail id: tender.co@hal-india.com latest by 24thJuly 2015, 10:00 Hrs. This email id should not be used for any other correspondence. For correspondence / clarifications,e-mailid: imm1@hal-india.com is to be used.






Appendix-A
INFORMATION TO BE SUBMITTTED BY THE INTERESTED FIRMS

1. Name of the Firm :
2. CIN
3. Contact Details:

· Name of the Contact Person:
· Designation:
· Postal Address:
· Telephone / Mob. no.:
· Fax no.:
· E-mail address:

4. Other details:

· Present business portfolio:
· Annual Turnover for last 3 years:
· No of employees in the Firm:
· Details of manufacturing infrastructure:

5. It may be noted that the following requirement need to be fulfilled in future

a) Firms may need to obtain necessary approvals from Govt. agencies.
b) Firms may be required to create necessary infrastructure (Land / Building / Plant & Machinery etc..)
c) Firms are ready to obtain certifications from Airworthiness agencies (DGAQA / CEMILAC)
d) Firms are ready to obtain AS 9100C Certification

6. Any experience in Defence manufacturing:

If yes, please provide details.

7. Any other relevant information:

8. Declaration:It is certified that the above information is true to the best of my knowledge and belief.




(Authorized Signatory)
Seal of the Company


This information is collected only to facilitate B2B meetings under MAKE IN INDIA during MAKS Airshow 2015 at Moscow, Russia.


Firewall Notification

 

[帅的一匹]

Its not the case friends, I had a chance to talk with IAF personal who used to work in SFC (won't disclose the name and location of the base for obvious reasons) and came to know that SU-30MKI was the asset used for nuke delivery. Weapons were stored at de-mated state ready to be operational within a short notice. Delivery plateforms are always on standby with standard config. and in ready to fly state. Its a misconception that MKI can't be used for nuke delivery.

About spare parts, there is some contractual obligation which force us to use Russian parts despite half of them available in India at lot cheaper prices (thus leads to less availability most of the time due to delay in Russian supply) as per my source.

LOL, you just take those Russians too seriously.

In 2013, HAL produced 15 MKIs and since then I believe more or less but we are producing around same. 10-12 figure is a old one( before 2013)...

15 units in CKD assembly mode is too slow.

 

[Abingdonboy]

In 2013, HAL produced 15 MKIs and since then I believe more or less but we are producing around same. 10-12 figure is a old one( before 2013)...

16 were made in 2014 and this is up to 18 in 2015 and all 272 will be delivered by 2018/19.

 

[MilSpec]

Time for some celebratory fireworks.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

The IAF wasn't blown away by the Su-35S and are quite convinced their Super Su-30MKIs will be of a similar spec. The price tag wasn't really considered- it isn't the job of the IAF's flying branch to look at price tags but make reccomendations. It was simply the product didn't impress them all that much.


True, but right now India's isn't even doing that- 42 SQN sanctioned strength, at this rate (even with an addtional 40 MKIs) the IAF will have 24/25 (about equivalent to the PAF) by 2022/3. As our friend posted on the IAF thread:



The IAF is adding about 1/4 of that (around 1 SQN of MKIs a year) and now is starting to phase out 2-3 SQNs of MiG-21/27 a year.

The IAF's troubles aren't going to be addressed by a single type- there needs to be multiple types and multiple production lines churning out fighters for the IAF at one time. The ideal situation would be 4 production lines- 2 for LCA (1 with the private sector), a Rafale production line and the Nasik plant all churning out birds for the IAF. This could see >3 SQNs of cutting edge birds entering the IAF every year- what a sign that would be!


@PARIKRAMA

Sorry bro, comepletly missed this post earlier.


Actually the figures here are rather conservative. By all accounts the Nasik plant is churning out 1 SQN worth(18-20) MKIs every year so if there is just 47 MKIs outstanding (from the orginal order) then production will be finishing in 2018/19 which fits perfectly with what I have heard and with what HAL has been saying for years. The orginal plan of course was to re-tool and for the Nasik plan to start churning out FGFAs but obviously that will be an impossibility in 2018/19 so the MoD is throwing this lifeline of 40 to keep the line open until the FGFA is ready.

interestingly, unless the Nasik plant massively scale down their production the 40 order won't be enough to keep the plant open more than 2-2.5 years (so around 2021/2). I am going to predict now that another 40 order will be made for MKIs to keep the plant open until 2024/5 at which time the FGFA should be ready for production.


Interestingly I've heard some things about this recently and let me assure you your fears are unfounded, the birds to be upgraded to the "Super" standard have already been earmarked and it won't take anything like 26 years to get them to that standard and any MKIs made beyond 2018 will be of this standard from day one.

That's why I have said again and again. Get more Mirage2000s, and Mig29s.
The Rafales will take their time.
And Tejas will not start rolling out from the factories like hot cakes, at least for next 3 years ( untill the government shows some spine and gets a private manufacturers )
Same for Rafale , the first 36 will not be operational before ~2022.

But when we talk about Mig29s,then the situation is better, we already operate them, they will take less time to get operationalise , comes at a reasonable price and its capabilities are more than bang for a buck.

Same for Mirage 2000, if we get around 2-4 squadrons from UAE/ France/Greece , they would be replacing, the mig27s one on one.
And they would be quick.

 

[MilSpec]

@Abingdonboy @PARIKRAMA @anant_s looks like we need to have another fleet composition projections with MKI, LCA1P, and Rafales for next 5-8-12 year time frame.

That's why I have said again and again. Get more Mirage2000s, and Mig29s.
The Rafales will take their time.
And Tejas will not start rolling out from the factories like hot cakes, at least for next 3 years ( untill the government shows some spine and gets a private manufacturers )
Same for Rafale , the first 36 will not be operational before ~2022.

But when we talk about Mig29s,then the situation is better, we already operate them, they will take less time to get operationalise , comes at a reasonable price and its capabilities are more than bang for a buck.

Same for Mirage 2000, if we get around 2-4 squadrons from UAE/ France/Greece , they would be replacing, the mig27s one on one.
And they would be quick.

No one is selling M2K's to India, not France, not UAE not Greece. 1P will enter full production in couple of years.. Mig29 would have been a good interim. IAF has a lot of faith in MKI... BTW it think MKI will be the largest platform ever in operation by Indian Air force. I am quite stoked.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

@Abingdonboy @PARIKRAMA @anant_s looks like we need to have another fleet composition projections with MKI, LCA1P, and Rafales for next 5-8-12 year time frame.


No one is selling M2K's to India, not France, not UAE not Greece. 1P will enter full production in couple of years.. Mig29 would have been a good interim. IAF has a lot of faith in MKI... BTW it think MKI will be the largest platform ever in operation by Indian Air force. I am quite stoked.

Well France is replacing its Mirages , we can surely get it. UAE trying to sell some to Iraq and Egypt, and given the recent warming in the relations its one option which should be given a try. Greece needs money.... its also surely worth to give a try.

Its not like they are not ready, actually the IAF haven't looked at this option in recent times.

And yes , a couple of Mig29 squadrons will not do any harm.

Production of Tejas? Tag me when HAL makes more than 12. I am sure that time is still at least 3 years away.

And yes MKIs will keep coming. HAL needs to produce them in good numbers, the Chinese produce on average 24 airframe of Flankers per year.