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Qatari Leadership Change Could Impact Mideast Balance of Power

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The Emir of Qatar Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani abdicated this week, handing power to his 33-year old son Tamim. The sudden but anticipated move raised questions about the potential regional consequences for Doha's active role in the so-called Arab Spring.

Qatar gave no reasons why Al Thani stepped down. But news reports theorized that the Emir's health was the main reason behind his decision.

"One of the reasons behind the Prince’s decision is his health that took a turn for the worse," said Simon Henderson, program director of the Gulf and Energy Policy at the Washington Institute for Middle East Studies.

"Hamad has only one kidney that works," he said, pointing out that Emir had surgery for a kidney transplant in 1997.

He said that when you compare a photograph of the prince with President Obama in 2009 and another picture taken at the White House in April this year, it is obvious that he had lost a lot of weight.

Some Qatari sources denied that the Emir has any health problems. The leadership change is a well-organized transfer of power in the Gulf emirate, Henderson said, quoting a Qatari source who spoke with him on condition of anonymity.

Mohammed Al -Mesfer, a political science professor at the University of Qatar, told Radio Sawa that he expects the transfer of power will not lead to any change in Qatar's foreign policy. But some regional experts in Washington are worried.

In an analysis, Foreign Policy magazine suggests the leadership change could prompt some regional powers to challenge Doha’s foreign policy regarding Syria and Qatar’s support for Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi.

Henderson thinks that Qatar’s role will decline in Libya, Syria, and Egypt in light of Doha's reliance on its financial leverage to influence those countries. He believes that Saudi Arabia will try to take over the Qatari role in Syria.


Qatari Leadership Change Could Impact Mideast Balance of Power
 
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