Possible steps to counter the rising threat from IAF ?

[Lil Mathew]

is it 2022 yet? not interested in fantasy parade, wait 2022, you may have to deal with j-31s as well.

Actually your j-31 remark is the fantacy or a dream ..Every thing in IAF plan are reality.. IAF is on modernization.. Will take time to give results..
IAF's Modernisation Projects' 75% Completion By 2022: Air Chief Marshal Browne
Mig 29+ mirage2k+Jaguar upgrades are underway..
Rafale deal is almost ready for signing..
LCA mk2 is also not a fantacy now( upgrading of entire fleet is on cards)..
Deal already signed for 42 more mki s..
Sukhoi HAL PMF is also a reality and it is on the way..
AMCA project also was intiated..

According to your logic JF17 block 2 also is a fantacy..

Now, here the question is how PAF counter rising threat of IAF ( whose budget is 6 times more than that of PAF)??
PAF's budget is only ~~$1.5 billon dollars.. In today's standards it is even hardly enough for maintaining its large fleet of ~~1000 aircrafts (most of the aircrafts are very old).. Then revenue expenditure of its large personnel fleet( their wages, transport, training, stores etc etc)..

What will remain for a major capital purchace??

 

[Dazzler]

Actually your j-31 remark is the fantacy or a dream ..Every thing in IAF plan are reality.. IAF is on modernization.. Will take time to give results..
IAF's Modernisation Projects' 75% Completion By 2022: Air Chief Marshal Browne
Mig 29+ mirage2k+Jaguar upgrades are underway..
Rafale deal is almost ready for signing..
LCA mk2 is also not a fantacy now( upgrading of entire fleet is on cards)..
Deal already signed for 42 more mki s..
Sukhoi HAL PMF is also a reality and it is on the way..
AMCA project also was intiated..

According to your logic JF17 block 2 also is a fantacy..

PAF induction takes much less time compared to IAF, i have been hearing and hearing MMRCA deal since 2005, till today no contract signed, iirc it may be signed next year but who knows.
itis evident that you have a habit of grossly overestimating IAF. I clearly stated i am not interested in future dreams, but j-31 IS for export primarily if SAC spokesman and chinese new agencies are to be believed.

As for blk 2, go to jf-17 thread and see atleast three aircraft on assembly line.
usually big ticket items are not purchased in a years fiscal budget. Capital allocation is done through multiple means. By your logic, PAF could not have got any major weapon system due to lack of funds, where did spada sam come from then?
Lastly, you are considering IAF as USAF which it is not, you have china on your head waiting to crush IIAF anytime. Commiting most of your fleet to the eastern front will allow them a stroll in India while chankiya lovers were motivating their forces to charge on poor little neighbour.

 

[Viper0011.]

Sarkar I agree with each and every word of your post except MiG-21 Bison part as it has 'limited' BVR capability & will get retired in 2022, but other platforms will continue to serve IAF so our main focus should be that +400 True BVR capable Indian fighters Jet in short term planing, once we attain the ability to pose 'counter threat in efficient manner' to those middle and heavy class fighter Bison factor will get countered automatically..

I am not arguing with your stance. Please know that. I am debating so you can see my point of view while I am struggling to understand yours.Whether BISONS are to be retired in 2022, is a useless argument. What happens before that if a conventional war broke out, and NOT war, a few conventional attacks happened and IA used large numbers? BISONS are definitely a part of that equation that tha PAF will have to deal with. Say if you somehow counter or semi-counter all other Indian platforms like you said above that it is the focus. Add 100 BISONS to it.......the dimension changes significantly. Although old and all.....you have to account for 100 extra jets.
Remember, in today's war, you may never see a BISON or a SU-30.....the BVR missile may down the other pane before he can visually sight the pane. So really, these old jets from 70 KM away are just as dangerous as an SU-30 from that far. They are both being used as a Missile Firing platform irrespective of their age or capability.

Also, there is no short or long term without BISONS.....today's BISONS will be replaced by tomorrow's LCA....so you always have to account for these Tier III jets and in a large number like 150-200 of those. Without this, there is no "strategy" or "focus" as you may be ignoring the largest fleet altogether outside of the SU-30's and that's a dangerous mistake to made from a strategic point of view.

 

[surya kiran]

PAF induction takes much less time compared to IAF, i have been hearing and hearing MMRCA deal since 2005, till today no contract signed, iirc it may be signed next year but who knows.
itis evident that you have a habit of grossly overestimating IAF. I clearly stated i am not interested in future dreams, but j-31 IS for export primarily if SAC spokesman and chinese new agencies are to be believed.

As for blk 2, go to jf-17 thread and see atleast three aircraft on assembly line.
usually big ticket items are not purchased in a years fiscal budget. Capital allocation is done through multiple means. By your logic, PAF could not have got any major weapon system due to lack of funds, where did spada sam come from then?
Lastly, you are considering IAF as USAF which it is not, you have china on your head waiting to crush IIAF anytime. Commiting most of your fleet to the eastern front will allow them a stroll in India while chankiya lovers were motivating their forces to charge on poor little neighbour.

Without getting into the planes and platforms, I had formed an opinion after reading Kaiser's (I think thats his name) blog.

They key is not just planes. They key is ensuring supplementary things like spares and oil is available. Getting into a discussion of which plane is better and which is not, is a matter or tactics and operational doctrine. And this applies in a given situation in combat.

During a scenario of war, importance is to first keep the jets flying. The aggressor always has a limit to the appetite to take hits to achieve a goal. Now, let's say, the aircraft in the PAF are lethal and can deter the IAF, but, have a problem in sortie rate and spares, its an issue.

Just my 2 bts.

 

[Dazzler]

I am not arguing with your stance. Please know that. I am debating so you can see my point of view while I am struggling to understand yours.Whether BISONS are to be retired in 2022, is a useless argument. What happens before that if a conventional war broke out, and NOT war, a few conventional attacks happened and IA used large numbers? BISONS are definitely a part of that equation that tha PAF will have to deal with. Say if you somehow counter or semi-counter all other Indian platforms like you said above that it is the focus. Add 100 BISONS to it.......the dimension changes significantly. Although old and all.....you have to account for 100 extra jets.
Remember, in today's war, you may never see a BISON or a SU-30.....the BVR missile may down the other pane before he can visually sight the pane. So really, these old jets from 70 KM away are just as dangerous as an SU-30 from that far. They are both being used as a Missile Firing platform irrespective of their age or capability.

Also, there is no short or long term without BISONS.....today's BISONS will be replaced by tomorrow's LCA....so you always have to account for these Tier III jets and in a large number like 150-200 of those. Without this, there is no "strategy" or "focus" as you may be ignoring the largest fleet altogether outside of the SU-30's and that's a dangerous mistake to made from a strategic point of view.

we have 60+ PGs for this very purpose, countering a bison is not a big huff, it is as exaggerated as the mki despite being small and having a mediocre radar in kopyo with search range not exceeding 80 and track less than 65km. Similar to what PG has with grifo-7 PG radar. As for elta 8222b jammer, again, it is too much hoopla out of nothing since f-7 can also carry drfm capable KG-300G ecm pod. so the situation is pretty much at parity, perhaps slightly in PGs favor with a drfm jammer onboard.

 

[Armstrong]

we have 60+ PGs for this very purpose, countering a bison is not a big huff, it is as exaggerated as the mki despite being small and having a mediocre radar in kopyo with search range not exceeding 80 and track less than 65km. Similar to what PG has with grifo-7 PG radar. As for elta 8222b jammer, again, it is too much hoopla out of nothing since f-7 can also carry drfm capable KG-300G ecm pod. so the situation is pretty much at parity, perhaps slightly in PGs favor with a drfm jammer onboard.

So if our PGs are there to counter the BISONs, the F-16s are there to counter the MKIs and the Jf-17s are there to plug in the gaps (of course they're not supposed to counter pound for pound but in a system with each having their roles as per our threat-assessment); what the heck are we going to counter the Rafaels by when they come ?

No money....no honey !

 

[Dazzler]

Without getting into the planes and platforms, I had formed an opinion after reading Kaiser's (I think thats his name) blog.

They key is not just planes. They key is ensuring supplementary things like spares and oil is available. Getting into a discussion of which plane is better and which is not, is a matter or tactics and operational doctrine. And this applies in a given situation in combat.

During a scenario of war, importance is to first keep the jets flying. The aggressor always has a limit to the appetite to take hits to achieve a goal. Now, let's say, the aircraft in the PAF are lethal and can deter the IAF, but, have a problem in sortie rate and spares, its an issue.

Just my 2 bts.

you have missed the mostimportant point, apart of logisti s, fuel and others, the turnaround time and fast sortie generation is of prime importance. A concept that USAF and allied forces used to great benefit. It allows a small airforce acting like a big on provided the aircraft availability remains high, something that favors PAF much more than IAF.

At any given time, despite less in numbers, PAF fleet comprising on f-16s, jf17s, f-7s and Mirages, are all maintenance friendly aircraft and spend much less time at depot. OTOH, IAF has mki, mirage 2000 and mig 29, forming the bulk of fleet, all are maintenance nightmares. I have had several discussions with su-30 jockeys from abroad, they all praise the size and range and performance of it but are damattant that the maintenance and turnaround time is dismal to say the least, in some cases it is as low as 50 percent.

All of these factors count big time in an air war, ask Israelis hiw they generated twice as many sorties vis a vis arabs despite having three times less in aircraft numbers.

 

[Lil Mathew]

PAF induction takes much less time compared to IAF, i have been hearing and hearing MMRCA deal since 2005, till today no contract signed, iirc it may be signed next year but who knows.
itis evident that you have a habit of grossly overestimating IAF. I clearly stated i am not interested in future dreams, but j-31 IS for export primarily if SAC spokesman and chinese new agencies are to be believed.

In your above statement it is evident that as of now PAF have no plans to counter rising IAF threats.. That is what I also tried to say.. That is our topic in this thread,na??
Yes, J31 is for exports.. Did PAF intiate any step to acquire that??

As for blk 2, go to jf-17 thread and see atleast three aircraft on assembly line.

I know that.. That was a sarcastic comment against your logic..

usually big ticket items are not purchased in a years fiscal budget. Capital allocation is done through multiple means. By your logic, PAF could not have got any major weapon system due to lack of funds, where did spada sam come from then?
Lastly, you are considering IAF as USAF which it is not, you have china on your head waiting to crush IIAF anytime. Commiting most of your fleet to the eastern front will allow them a stroll in India while chankiya lovers were motivating their forces to charge on poor little neighbour.

If you study about your defence expenditure, you can understand your country spending at most amount for def and security..
Pakistan is one of the country with lowest total expenditure in the world(~50billion dollar- bellow 10%og gdp).. Even for that money your govt is struggling( only 20 billion dollar tax money-well below 10% of gdp)..
Your country already spending 11-13 billion for def, internal security, nuclear etc( ~ 20-25% of total spending almost eats major share of tax money).. The 35-40 % spending for debt management( interest, repay etc.).. Govt really struggling for other expences( nation building, infra, education, health) wit non tax revenues( aids, imf funds etc.)..
Only ~15billion dollar reserve, huge debt etc..
From where money come other than fiscal budget???
China- be yours man.. Prepare for the worst.. Expect India will use its max of its force against you.. What will China do other than moral support??

 

[surya kiran]

you have missed the mostimportant point, apart of logisti s, fuel and others, the turnaround time and fast sortie generation is of prime importance. A concept that USAF and allied forces used to great benefit. It allows a small airforce acting like a big on provided the aircraft availability remains high, something that favors PAF much more than IAF.

At any given time, despite less in numbers, PAF fleet comprising on f-16s, jf17s, f-7s and Mirages, are all maintenance friendly aircraft and spend much less time at depot. OTOH, IAF has mki, mirage 2000 and mig 29, forming the bulk of fleet, all are maintenance nightmares. I have had several discussions with su-30 jockeys from abroad, they all praise the size and range and performance of it but are damattant that the maintenance and turnaround time is dismal to say the least, in some cases it is as low as 50 percent.

All of these factors count big time in an air war, ask Israelis hiw they generated twice as many sorties vis a vis arabs despite having three times less in aircraft numbers.

Which is what I was getting at. Sortie rate and availability of spares. I think, both go hand in hand. If an aircraft has a high sortie rate, but low availability of spares its a problem. Same way, lots of spare but huge turnaround time is a problem. If the PAF is able to ensure that availability of spares is not an issue for the F-16s, then there is deterrence. I am not saying dominance, but deterrence. If, the PAF ensures this, half the objective is won.

 

[Dazzler]

In your above statement it is evident that as of now PAF have no plans to counter rising IAF threats.. That is what I also tried to say.. That is our topic in this thread,na??
Yes, J31 is for exports.. Did PAF intiate any step to acquire that??


I know that.. That was a sarcastic comment against your logic..


If you study about your defence expenditure, you can understand your country spending at most amount for def and security..
Pakistan is one of the country with lowest total expenditure in the world(~50billion dollar- bellow 10%og gdp).. Even for that money your govt is struggling( only 20 billion dollar tax money-well below 10% of gdp)..
Your country already spending 11-13 billion for def, internal security, nuclear etc( ~ 20-25% of total spending almost eats major share of tax money).. The 35-40 % spending for debt management( interest, repay etc.).. Govt really struggling for other expences( nation building, infra, education, health) wit non tax revenues( aids, imf funds etc.)..
Only ~15billion dollar reserve, huge debt etc..
From where money come other than fiscal budget???
China- be yours man.. Prepare for the worst.. Expect India will use its max of its force against you.. What will China do other than moral support??

as i said, as of today, it is IAF that has to worry about reducing sqdrns. No one relies on chinese aid in a war. However, if india concentrates bulk of assets against pakistan, i doubt it, dont it happening even if it did, PAF has the means and skill to take care of it while China will have a stroll through india.

Regarding budget, you should worry about your dwindling economy first, where will funds come for rafale deal? Its a worrying sign for IAF.

 

[Imran Khan]

Really Imran bhai read lot of your post..from bottom of my heart I say u always neutral and really post something to read and think abt.. great

bhai main ne to pakka jugaar lagaya hai na rahy ga bans na bajy gee bansuri

jab permanent peace ho ga to IAF ya PAF ke jet khary khary zaang (rust) lag jaay gay use nhi hoon gay

 

[Kloitra]

as i said, as of today, it is IAF that has to worry about reducing sqdrns.

Majority of the fighters getting retired are ground attack. They are been replaced by multirole fighters. For example, 1 Mki is effectively a replacement for both a Mig21 and 23BN. So on paper the number have been going down, but capability is actually on rise.

Ignore my reply if you were just trolling/counter-trolling

 

[HRK]

Add 100 BISONS to it.......the dimension changes significantly. Although old and all.....you have to account for 100 extra jets.

I am not factoring BISON in my scenario as I have included 'all of the MKI fleet' in +400 figure, In reality India will have to keep some numbers of MKI at China border, let say around 60 to 100 number of MKI.

BTW which fighter jet pose more threat 100 BISON or 100 MKI ... ??

If you want to include 100 BISON in threat perception analysis than you should also exclude at least 60 MKI for the purpose stated above.

As per my previous estimate for next 3 years

400 BVR Indian Jets (MKI+MiG-29+Mirage) against 236 BVR Pakistani Fleet (F-16+JF-17+ New Air Superiority Platform 3 Squadron)

==> 400/236 = 1.69 numerical superiority of India in BVR platform

Now include 100 Bison & exclude 60 MKI as per your argument

440/236= 1.86 numerical superiority of India in BVR platform

not a major difference or boast in threat level, in-fact this will decrease the threat level as the capability to launch the the number of BVR will decrease.

this is the reason I termed next 3 years as 'window of opportunity'

 

[cranwerkhan]

the only positive step you can take right now is to prey that your Kaptan moron gets some sense and let the economy grow and then your can buy some equipments.

Through this moron ganju from seat n country economy will boost..

 

[xyxmt]

Through this moron ganju from seat n country economy will boost..

economy boosts where people are hard working, no chance in Pakistan.