There's currently a minor flap going on about France selling submarines to Pakistan, including worries that this will give Pakistan a sub-based nuclear deterrent. We noticed that program back in 2002, and Pakistan's subs aren't a big concern. Not yet, anyway. Let me explain why.
Let's start with some background. Naval-Technology.com has details on the French Agosta class of submarines, and GlobalSecurity.org adds a cutaway diagram and details re: the Khalid-class version for export to Pakistan. Over at Roger Simon's blog, commenter Holmwood has some intelligent background on the Agosta-class subs and Pakistans likely level of warhead development.
The bottom line? Agostas are diesel-powered attack subs, not missile subs. The submarine also has a limited range when submerged, unlike a nuclear-powered boat that can cruise around the world without surfacing. It's possible to have an Agosta-class sub carry nuclear weapons, but you need to have very advanced warhead designs to fit them, and the missiles you fire tend to have fairly short ranges.
That isn't what Pakistan is building them for.
The Agostas are primarily designed as a counter to India's growing Navy, which will soon include an aircraft carrier that is also planned as a nuclear strike platform and command-and-control center. The deal for is to be finalized this December, with delivery in 2007-2008. It is also in India's long-term strategic interest to build its navy into the pre-eminent local force between the Straits of Malacca (Indonesia) and the Arabian Sea, and its carrier will force procurement and doctrinal changes that will accelerate this evolution. Something the USA may even find it smart to encourage.
Pakistan obviously wants a lever against that potential threat. They cannot compete in a surface ship race, and they know it - so submarines are their logical choice. Hence the Agostas.
With that said, the future is murkier. The logic of deterrence is likely to push Pakistan toward nuclear-armed submarines eventually, especially if they decide that India is getting a potential first strike capability on their land-based weapons. So watch for any acquisition of new sub designs in future years, though Tom Roberts is correct in stating that this will be the least of their challenges, and now that Holmwood has found us here at Winds, he adds more thoughtful commentary on Pakistan's strategic options.
To see the logic of submarine-based missiles in action on another front, the Israelis are already moving in the direction of sub-launched nukes, with some Dolphin class subs that have been modified to carry cruise missiles. Missile testing was carried out by a submarine in the Indian Ocean about 4 years ago, almost certainly in cooperation with India.
http://www.windsofchange.net/archives/005619.php
Let's start with some background. Naval-Technology.com has details on the French Agosta class of submarines, and GlobalSecurity.org adds a cutaway diagram and details re: the Khalid-class version for export to Pakistan. Over at Roger Simon's blog, commenter Holmwood has some intelligent background on the Agosta-class subs and Pakistans likely level of warhead development.
The bottom line? Agostas are diesel-powered attack subs, not missile subs. The submarine also has a limited range when submerged, unlike a nuclear-powered boat that can cruise around the world without surfacing. It's possible to have an Agosta-class sub carry nuclear weapons, but you need to have very advanced warhead designs to fit them, and the missiles you fire tend to have fairly short ranges.
That isn't what Pakistan is building them for.
The Agostas are primarily designed as a counter to India's growing Navy, which will soon include an aircraft carrier that is also planned as a nuclear strike platform and command-and-control center. The deal for is to be finalized this December, with delivery in 2007-2008. It is also in India's long-term strategic interest to build its navy into the pre-eminent local force between the Straits of Malacca (Indonesia) and the Arabian Sea, and its carrier will force procurement and doctrinal changes that will accelerate this evolution. Something the USA may even find it smart to encourage.
Pakistan obviously wants a lever against that potential threat. They cannot compete in a surface ship race, and they know it - so submarines are their logical choice. Hence the Agostas.
With that said, the future is murkier. The logic of deterrence is likely to push Pakistan toward nuclear-armed submarines eventually, especially if they decide that India is getting a potential first strike capability on their land-based weapons. So watch for any acquisition of new sub designs in future years, though Tom Roberts is correct in stating that this will be the least of their challenges, and now that Holmwood has found us here at Winds, he adds more thoughtful commentary on Pakistan's strategic options.
To see the logic of submarine-based missiles in action on another front, the Israelis are already moving in the direction of sub-launched nukes, with some Dolphin class subs that have been modified to carry cruise missiles. Missile testing was carried out by a submarine in the Indian Ocean about 4 years ago, almost certainly in cooperation with India.
http://www.windsofchange.net/archives/005619.php
