Pakistani Military's Conventional Deterrence Against India's Cold Start Doctrine

[SQ8]

There is another perspective on the 2001-02 standoff, it was fist brought to my notice by Brig Samson Saraf (if I remember correct it was Brig Saraf) posting on the sadly defunct chowk.com. The perspective had two key propositions:

1. The mobilisation of Pak troops to the Eastern border forced it to substantially abandon its guard on the Western front where the Pak Army had the putative TTP on the mat. This allowed the likes of Baitullah and Radio to mobilise and eventually they would be a serious threat later in the decade.
2. This, along with the Parliament attack itself, was a deliberate act of the Indian Army/agencies in connivance with some foreign powers.

I am a peace loving Bong having remotely nothing to do with the business of fighting but experts here like @Oscar and @Joe Shearer may want to chip in on this.

Regards

TTP was as such a non-entity but what is true is that a lot of Pakistani forces which were initially being sent to cover the moutain front ended up being deployed to the east. Hence the oft whined claim of militant haven did come true as the FC was non-existant as an effective force to check these droves of AQ, Haqqani, Taliban and other militants that came into the region. A lot of these people immediately got involved in turning FATA into the next Afghanistan.

India was looking to push militants into our territory so it could return to Afghanistan and th second front.

 

[randomradio]

Cold Start doctrine itself offers no ‘end point’. Though there is very much flexibility in its operation but it fails to wind up limited war in a balanced manner. Bite and Hold strategy provides understanding about ‘biting’ but gives no explanation about ‘holding’. The lack of conclusive strategies, both political & military types, indicates that at best Cold Start Doctrine can be used for coercive purposes or as a ‘patch’ to enhance the war fighting capabilities of Indian armed forces.

The point of Cold Start is to start the war early, before international pressure comes into play. Anyway, the new doctrine has gone beyond Cold Start now. The erstwhile "Holding Corps" have started receiving the necessary firepower to become offensive units too. So they are no more Holding Corps.

On the ground, the idea is to hold Pakistani territory in a short war for a negotiation advantage. In case we end up with full scale war, any successful thrusts made by the IBGs will be taken advantage of by the three main strike corps.

 

[Yasser76]

The point of Cold Start is to start the war early, before international pressure comes into play. Anyway, the new doctrine has gone beyond Cold Start now. The erstwhile "Holding Corps" have started receiving the necessary firepower to become offensive units too. So they are no more Holding Corps.

On the ground, the idea is to hold Pakistani territory in a short war for a negotiation advantage. In case we end up with full scale war, any successful thrusts made by the IBGs will be taken advantage of by the three main strike corps.

Read this and the "critical" shortages and defficiencies on everything that an army needs to fight a land war. Tanks, APCS, Ammo and you still think these plans are realistic.

Most Indian amoured vehicles cannot fight at night

severe problems in tank and artillery ammo (83 unusable)

Sever lack of self propelled howitzers

40% shortage of officers in some units

only enough reserves to fight for 10 days

This is not an army capable of intense large scale manouvre warfare myfriend

"IA continues to be a hollow army" Lt Gen Vijay Oberoi (retired)

 

[randomradio]

Read this and the "critical" shortages and defficiencies on everything that an army needs to fight a land war. Tanks, APCS, Ammo and you still think these plans are realistic.

Most Indian amoured vehicles cannot fight at night

severe problems in tank and artillery ammo (83 unusable)

Sever lack of self propelled howitzers

40% shortage of officers in some units

only enough reserves to fight for 10 days

This is not an army capable of intense large scale manouvre warfare myfriend

"IA continues to be a hollow army" Lt Gen Vijay Oberoi (retired)

Most of the deficiencies you listed are either non-existent or already fixed.

 

[Yasser76]

Most of the deficiencies you listed are either non-existent or already fixed.

No, I am qouting from a Janes defence report on lack of modernisation within the Indian Military published this week.

 

[randomradio]

No, I am qouting from a Janes defence report on lack of modernisation within the Indian Military published this week.

Their information is very old. And there is a lot of half-information mixed in. Jane's isn't reliable for non-western sources anyway. India is not their target market, so they don't bother doing enough research there.

Take the example of night vision. The T-90s all come with TIs, there is no issue of night vision there and we have 1200+ tanks operational. Even the driver sights are being upgraded with TIs now.

As for the T-72s--
2015
http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities...anks-improved-night-vision/article6911932.ece
“We started fitting Thermal Imager Fire Control Systems (TIFCS) in November 2014. So far, 170 kits have been supplied to the army,” he said adding the night vision technology will be fitted in 1,000 T-72s over the next one year.

The company is also the offset partner in the Indian Army’s infantry command vehicle upgradation. It has already supplied 300 thermal imager standalone kits (TISK), which improves night vision for main gun firing and also missiles. By September this year, 969 vehicles would be upgraded, he said.

Even in 2010--
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/indian-army-t-72-tanks-now-have-night-vision.67983/

As for reserve ammunition, the reserves they are talking about are the absolute final line of reserves in the army and not the total warfighting reserves. So we have operational ammunition, then we have HQ reserves at all levels, like brigade, division etc, then we have the final line of reserves called the War Wastage Reserves, which is at half right now and will go to full capacity by 2019. There's a lot of hue and cry made for nothing. We have enough ammunition to fight both China and Pakistan. So why won't we have ammo when we have to fight Pakistan only?

 

[Yasser76]

No, I am qouting from a Janes defence report on lack of modernisation within the Indian Military published this week.

Most of the deficiencies you listed are either non-existent or already fixed.

Indian Army has officially stated to Indian Government that it cannot even commit to it's current liabilities under the present budget. This is not my opinion but face. Report states that 70% of equipment is obsolete. Pensions and salaries are taking a larger and larger share of the Indian Army budget. 2000 BMP1/2s and 2000 T-72s have no night fighting capabilities.

Talk of epic armoured thrusts into Pakistan is not within the realms of reality, more so when you consider that Pakistan has a larger number of SPHs and APCs within its armoured and mechanised divisons

 

[Dazzler]

Their information is very old. And there is a lot of half-information mixed in. Jane's isn't reliable for non-western sources anyway. India is not their target market, so they don't bother doing enough research there.

Take the example of night vision. The T-90s all come with TIs, there is no issue of night vision there and we have 1200+ tanks operational. Even the driver sights are being upgraded with TIs now.

As for the T-72s--
2015
http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities...anks-improved-night-vision/article6911932.ece
“We started fitting Thermal Imager Fire Control Systems (TIFCS) in November 2014. So far, 170 kits have been supplied to the army,” he said adding the night vision technology will be fitted in 1,000 T-72s over the next one year.

The company is also the offset partner in the Indian Army’s infantry command vehicle upgradation. It has already supplied 300 thermal imager standalone kits (TISK), which improves night vision for main gun firing and also missiles. By September this year, 969 vehicles would be upgraded, he said.

Even in 2010--
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/indian-army-t-72-tanks-now-have-night-vision.67983/

As for reserve ammunition, the reserves they are talking about are the absolute final line of reserves in the army and not the total warfighting reserves. So we have operational ammunition, then we have HQ reserves at all levels, like brigade, division etc, then we have the final line of reserves called the War Wastage Reserves, which is at half right now and will go to full capacity by 2019. There's a lot of hue and cry made for nothing. We have enough ammunition to fight both China and Pakistan. So why won't we have ammo when we have to fight Pakistan only?

Your argument as usual is a flawed one and you seem to take pride in it. The man quoted you the latest and you are thumping chest as if all is well, which is not.

The Indian army is not in a position to go into a war, even a limited war. The ammo shortage is there, half of your mbt fleet still cannot fight at night. Having thermal imagers in 900 t-72s still leave close to 800 vehicles without them, even the IIR optics are not there. The red tape culture is now causing your army big time and things are not going to change for several years to come.

Read this: https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/army...ence-modernisation-pace.548478/#post-10322860

 

[Yasser76]

I dont mind debating you but if you insist of just lying to save face then an debate becomes pointless. Janes is the world's foremost source on defence matter and I would take their word over yours any day of the week. You are qouting sources that say T-72s will be modernised for night, but I can qoute sources from 2015 that say IAF would have several Tejas squadrons by now, it does not make it so right? If you do not believe Janes (the report was from this week) then maybe you will believe the Indian Army and your own standing committee on defence report published this week

"current revenues do not meet liabilities of routine maintenance. This shall also effect serviceability of equipment"
"Insufficient allocation of funds for committed procurements will definately have a negative effect, besides leading to the legal issues of not making payments"

 

[randomradio]

Your argument as usual is a flawed one and you seem to take pride in it. The man quoted you the latest and you are thumping chest as if all is well, which is not.

The Indian army is not in a position to go into a war, even a limited war. The ammo shortage is there, half of your mbt fleet still cannot fight at night. Having thermal imagers in 900 t-72s still leave close to 800 vehicles without them, even the IIR optics are not there. The red tape culture is now causing your army big time and things are not going to change for several years to come.

Read this: https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/army...ence-modernisation-pace.548478/#post-10322860

This is funny. What makes you think the remaining T-72s don't have them? All the T-72s were upgraded long ago.

And I would suggest reading up on what War Wastage Reserves mean. We have enough ammo to fight both China and Pakistan. And the WWR is being replenished as we speak.

As for the link you posted:
A series of reports tabled in Parliament on Tuesday revealed that an allocation of Rs 21,338 crore for modernisation was barely enough for the committed payment of Rs 29,033 crore for 125 ongoing schemes and emergency procurements.

That's only for one year. Is that an amount the PA can wrap around their heads first? We are spending more money than the PA's entire budget only on procurement and you think that's a problem for us?

The article is only highlighting the army's need for a much bigger budget. There's nothing special there.

 

[Yasser76]

This is funny. What makes you think the remaining T-72s don't have them? All the T-72s were upgraded long ago.

And I would suggest reading up on what War Wastage Reserves mean. We have enough ammo to fight both China and Pakistan. And the WWR is being replenished as we speak.

As for the link you posted:
A series of reports tabled in Parliament on Tuesday revealed that an allocation of Rs 21,338 crore for modernisation was barely enough for the committed payment of Rs 29,033 crore for 125 ongoing schemes and emergency procurements.

That's only for one year. Is that an amount the PA can wrap around their heads first? We are spending more money than the PA's entire budget only on procurement and you think that's a problem for us?

The article is only highlighting the army's need for a much bigger budget. There's nothing special there.

Again, unsure why so angry. Couple of points

1) It's Janes THIS WEEK saying the T-72s and BMPS still cannot fight at night. Go argue with them, but they are a more trusted source then you on the internet.

2) As you know Pak procurement/salary budget is larger then our official stats indicate. Also just because you have a budget it does not make it get spent (as shown by Indian MOD over many years). Pak Army pensions not included in our figures. Also India has approx 3 times the Army to modernise compared to Pak.

3) Your own Army is stating reserves for 62 out of 81 ammunition types will last for only 10 days.

 

[Dazzler]

This is funny. What makes you think the remaining T-72s don't have them? All the T-72s were upgraded long ago.

And I would suggest reading up on what War Wastage Reserves mean. We have enough ammo to fight both China and Pakistan. And the WWR is being replenished as we speak.

On the contrary, you should use your head while reading. Your t-72 fleet has become a huge liability with bursting barrels, incompatible ammo with t-90, ballistic computer not recognizing rounds and lack of night sights and thermal imagers are all crippling its abilities.
In fact, IA would be better off buying Polish PT-91 instead of using these pieces, at least theyll give the enemy some degree of resistance.

 

[randomradio]

I dont mind debating you but if you insist of just lying to save face then an debate becomes pointless. Janes is the world's foremost source on defence matter and I would take their word over yours any day of the week. You are qouting sources that say T-72s will be modernised for night, but I can qoute sources from 2015 that say IAF would have several Tejas squadrons by now, it does not make it so right? If you do not believe Janes (the report was from this week) then maybe you will believe the Indian Army and your own standing committee on defence report published this week

"current revenues do not meet liabilities of routine maintenance. This shall also effect serviceability of equipment"
"Insufficient allocation of funds for committed procurements will definately have a negative effect, besides leading to the legal issues of not making payments"

Who's lying? You are comparing signed contracts with a development program.

All the T-72s necessary are upgraded. That's 1600 of them.

Again, unsure why so angry. Couple of points

1) It's Janes THIS WEEK saying the T-72s and BMPS still cannot fight at night. Go argue with them, but they are a more trusted source then you on the internet.

2) As you know Pak procurement/salary budget is larger then our official stats indicate. Also just because you have a budget it does not make it get spent (as shown by Indian MOD over many years). Pak Army pensions not included in our figures. Also India has approx 3 times the Army to modernise compared to Pak.

That post wasn't direct towards you, it was at Dazzler.

3) Your own Army is stating reserves for 62 out of 81 ammunition types will last for only 10 days.

The very, very last line of reserves.

I would recommend checking from the PA whether they have the ability to handle IA's definition of "10 days of intense fighting".

On the contrary, you should use your head while reading. Your t-72 fleet has become a huge liability with bursting barrels, incompatible ammo with t-90, ballistic computer not recognizing rounds and lack of night sights and thermal imagers are all crippling its abilities.
In fact, IA would be better off buying Polish PT-91 instead of using these pieces, at least theyll give the enemy some degree of resistance.

This is hilarious now.

Here in India we are talking about upgrading the T-90 with a new engine, a full scope APS and a new missile and you are talking about non-existent issues.

 

[SoulSpokesman]

Indian Army being in the state it is in (allegedly), dunno why the Pak Fauj doesnt invade Kashmir and take it....

Regards

 

[The-Hack]

Indian Army being in the state it is in (allegedly), dunno why the Pak Fauj doesnt invade Kashmir and take it....

Regards

We did this in 1948 but your leaders start to wept in front of UN,
"Pakistani forces led Indian leaders to approach the United Nations who ultimately introduced Observers in June 1948"

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/indo-pak_1947.htm