PAF & the ramifications of Rafale's sale to India

[Abingdonboy]

What i have heard that PAF going for Typhoons...
Is that true...?

I have no way of knowing whether that is true my friend, I don't follow the Pakistani Mil that closely. Objectively though, I would be skeptical about such news but who knows?

 

[Bossman]

I have no way of knowing whether that is true my friend, I don't follow the Pakistani Mil that closely. Objectively though, I would be skeptical about such news but who knows?

as for not following Pak Mil, why are you always hanging out at Pakistani military sites including this one. I can post your IP address in all those sites if you want

 

[Abingdonboy]

as for not following Pak Mil, why are you always hanging out at Pakistani military sites including this one. I can post your IP address in all those sites if you want

 

[SQ8]

I would not take the Rafale sale as a threat much beyond perhaps 48 purchased for the IAF and some 36 for the IN.
The much touted but ill-planned and managed "Make in India" policy will sadly victimize the Rafale purchase as it did the MMRCA. This will lead to another delay with the IAF having to resort to further numbers of MKIs or(as is common in Indian defence procurements) do a U-Turn and end up purchasing yet another platform.

The biggest threat the Rafale does bring is the AASM. Its multi-target attack capability means that even a flight of 4 rafale's can hit 24 potential targets with pinpoint precision from a fairly respectable stand-off distance. The very fact that its a kit much like the JDAM makes it a much greater ordnance booster than any other weapon in India's arsenal in the future.

While its A2A capability is impressive, I would not much too much weight against the current well network Air assets of the PAF. It is still going to take losses at similar rates as the MKI against the combination of F-16s and JF-17s with their respective BVRs.

However, I dont think the IAF command would be much inclined to put their best strike fighter in an employment role that pits it against aerial resistance without effective cover; and as such the Rafale is only bringing in a proportional capability increase as the block-52's did for Pakistan.

 

[ito]

The present IAF strength can best PAF. So just 36 more Rafale will not bring a great edge to IAF. The second line of fighter planes that India is proposing to replace in mass MIGs can change the strategic balance. Imagine another 200 F16s or F18 or Gripens in IAF colors. I am sure PAF will have no answer for that quantitative edge. Moreover, even inducting Tejas in large numbers can have similar effect, however may Pakistani members disagree about the quality of Tejas. It will be simply impossible for PAF to beat the quantitative edge given the proximity of geography. It will be rather easier for PAF to beat Rafale if they are inducted in low numbers.

 

[SQ8]

The present IAF strength can best PAF. So just 36 more Rafale will not bring a great edge to IAF. The second line of fighter planes that India is proposing to replace in mass MIGs can change the strategic balance. Imagine another 200 F16s or F18 or Gripens in IAF colors. I am sure PAF will have no answer for that quantitative edge. Moreover, even inducting Tejas in large numbers can have similar effect, however may Pakistani members disagree about the quality of Tejas. It will be simply impossible for PAF to beat the quantitative edge given the proximity of geography. It will be rather easier for PAF to beat Rafale if they are inducted in low numbers.

200 F-18s, 300 Su-35, 500 PAK-50s, 10000000 Asambhavi Vimans..

Seriously.

 

[ito]

200 F-18s, 300 Su-35, 500 PAK-50s, 10000000 Asambhavi Vimans..

Seriously.

I didn't say 500 PAKFA or I am not sure SU 35 will fly in Indian colors.

But there is a huge requirement for fighter planes in IAF. The Squadron strength is down from 42 to 33. So there will be a mass induction of fighter planes. That is why LM, Boeing and SAAB have offered to setup their assembly lines in India. And it doesn't make business sense for them if the number is below 150 to 200 to have a dedicated assembly lines in India. Moreover, India is one of few countries in the world where defense expenditure is growing very fast, while the trend world wide is the opposite, so that make India a great market for the likes of LM. I am sure in a decade of two Indian defense expenditure will be among the top three in the world so assuming that India will acquire a lot of fighter planes is safe.

 

[SQ8]

I didn't say 500 PAKFA or I am not sure SU 35 will fly in Indian colors.

But there is a huge requirement for fighter planes in IAF. The Squadron strength is down from 42 to 33. So there will be a mass induction of fighter planes. That is why LM, Boeing and SAAB have offered to setup their assembly lines in India. And it doesn't make business sense for them if the number is below 150 to 200 to have a dedicated assembly lines in India. Moreover, India is one of few countries in the world where defense expenditure is growing very fast, while the trend world wide is the opposite, so that make India a great market for the likes of LM. I am sure in a decade of two Indian defense expenditure will be among the top three in the world so assuming that India will acquire a lot of fighter planes is safe.

No, you just made up numbers like our Nishan. There is an entire historical precedent available for how India's defence procurements work and the delays they face. Not to mention the sense of national pride that every other Indian government end up shooting itself(or rather the IAF) in the foot with everytime with mismanaged indigenous approaches.

Unless the Indian private sector is opened up and the MoD being given a better procurement process than the current red tape ridden marathon; the IAF is going to take a lot longer to modernize.

 

[AugenBlick]

The present IAF strength can best PAF. So just 36 more Rafale will not bring a great edge to IAF. The second line of fighter planes that India is proposing to replace in mass MIGs can change the strategic balance. Imagine another 200 F16s or F18 or Gripens in IAF colors. I am sure PAF will have no answer for that quantitative edge. Moreover, even inducting Tejas in large numbers can have similar effect, however may Pakistani members disagree about the quality of Tejas. It will be simply impossible for PAF to beat the quantitative edge given the proximity of geography. It will be rather easier for PAF to beat Rafale if they are inducted in low numbers.

no f 16/18 is coming it's gonna be Tejas ... and apart from time/cost overruns rest criticism is just Keyboard e-badassery.

 

[Metanoia]

@Manticore

1--What is PAF's priority [ Land defence,Sea denial, deep attacks with heavy bombs or smart ammunitions ] ?

Unfortunately it will be complete guess work on my part…perhaps a little bit of everything? In my opinion currently we don’t have a properly effective deep attack platform (barring our Mirages).

2--Can jf-17 completely meet those demands/doctrine even after aesa/ifr probe/composites/strengthened structure/tweaked engine?

JFT will turn out to be a very potent and lethal platform with all the above mentioned upgrades…and with numbers….I reckon anyone would think at least twice or thrice before thinking of a misadventure in our skies. However…the question I would ask is that after all these upgrades, will the JFT supersede our F-16s (because they’re our current benchmark)? If the experts believe that with our current F-16’s we’ll be able manage the threat of IAF(Rafale included)….then I don’t find the reason as to why can’t an upgraded JFT won’t be able to do it.


3--If not what are the options and possible numbers? Is the cost of buying/ training/maintenance/spare parts/ years to build strategy/ availability rate worth the hassle?

If in case the JFTs can’t fulfil the expectations…then I reckon a Chinese option will make the most sense in terms of all the above parameters. I doubt it will be a hassle as well.


4--S300 copies vs introduction of another 4.5 gen fighter?

This is a bit complex in my opinion. From what I understand a solid SAM platform/network will greatly augment the PAF within our own airspace. S-300 copies would act like force-multiplier (I hope it’s the correct term here) for our JFTs and F-16s. Considering our traditional budgetary constraints I doubt we’ll be able to induct 4.5 gen platforms in numbers…so it’s either they’ll be used for deep strike/maritime missions OR defence? I reckon vis-à-vis Rafale….we’ll need to invest in the both of ‘em. I reckon better AWACS will also be important in our fight against IAF Rafales.


5--Should we wait another decade for j31 or should we buy some 4.5 gen fighter instead and develop tactics in the meanwhile


Ideally (in my opinion) we should stop trying playing catch-up and wait for a 5th gen platform. The world around is constantly evolving (in terms of technology and threat)…and that too at a scary pace. Better swallow a bitter pill in the present for a better vision/future of tomorrow.


7--Is the replacement of 190 old fighters with a BVR capable light fighter sufficient keeping in view Pakistan's economy?

Sufficient in view of Pakistan’s economy? Yes. However we must have a vision if want to see ourselves in the future.


8--J10 and JF-17 may have similar capability but they DON'T have SAME capability. Are the J-10 an ideal replacement for the mirage squadrons?

Sort of. Mirage has a better combat radius and ferry range as compared to J-10….while the rest of the specifications are quite identical. J-10 does have a better take-off weight. In my opinion the J-10 platform can be deployed for a deep strike role inside the Indian territory but it won’t that effective in the maritime roles. I am assuming that the electronic suits/avionics will be similar in both the platforms (Mirage vs. J-10). Specifically only in regards to Rafale….I don’t really see the point of inducting J-10 platform.


9--Is there any chance of getting reliable subsystems for jft from the French?

Reliable in terms of quality? Yes. Reliable in terms of geo-politics and logistics? No


10--Other than numbers, what capability rafale brings to IAF, which they wont exploit in the su30 including its naval role

I am very poor when it comes to technicalities...but if I had to guess I would say the reduced RCS will be a huge advantage for them and a major threat for us.


11-- Importance of loiter time in war

Quite important I assume. It would save some crucial time in certain situations as well I guess.


12--Are destroyers, submarines, helicopters, s300 derivatives and cruise missiles the answer?

Don’t know about the destroyers, submarines and the helicopters…doubt they would do much against the Rafale. However S300 can be effectively used and the cruise missiles can be used for pre-empt their airfields or parked aircraft….still debatable though.


13--Importance of joint ventures for subsystems avionics / ammunitions with countries other than China

Turkey is the only country which comes to mind at the moment.



Disclaimer: I am not an expert...obviously.

 

[weqi]

Hi,

That is incorrect---they are winning thru making friends and showing how important they are.

The BRAGGING that pakistanis used to do---show the GORA the money and they will sell everything to you has been smashed back at the faces of the pakistanis----.

Nobody wants to sell anything to pakistan---. Pakistan has deceived so many countries regarding the fighter aircraft purchase----now it is being paid bacvk in coin---.

You are lucky that south china seas issues came up for china----otherwise pakistan would not have a pot to pi-ss in even.

ofcourse this is the south china sea issue and idnia's stupid unnecessary involvement

The present IAF strength can best PAF. So just 36 more Rafale will not bring a great edge to IAF. The second line of fighter planes that India is proposing to replace in mass MIGs can change the strategic balance. Imagine another 200 F16s or F18 or Gripens in IAF colors. I am sure PAF will have no answer for that quantitative edge. Moreover, even inducting Tejas in large numbers can have similar effect, however may Pakistani members disagree about the quality of Tejas. It will be simply impossible for PAF to beat the quantitative edge given the proximity of geography. It will be rather easier for PAF to beat Rafale if they are inducted in low numbers.

HAL SENIORS REJECTED PRODUCTION OF F-16 & F-18 JUST FEW WEEKS AGO DURING VISIT OF CARTER

J-11 & Eurfighter are best answers .

J-11 in one go can cover from karachi till calcutta (Deep penetration Strike ) WoW

 

[_NOBODY_]

[B]4--[COLOR=#ff0000]S300 copies[/COLOR] vs introduction of another 4.5 gen fighter?[/B]

If you are referring to HQ-9 then HQ-9 is not S-300 copy and it is far superior to S-300 as HQ-9 incorporates the technology of both MIM-104 Patriot and S-300.

 

[Metanoia]

If you are referring to HQ-9 then HQ-9 is not S-300 copy and it is far superior to S-300 as HQ-9 incorporates the technology of both MIM-104 Patriot and S-300.

I was answering to the OP...that's his question which you have quoted

 

[knight11]

If you are referring to HQ-9 then HQ-9 is not S-300 copy and it is far superior to S-300 as HQ-9 incorporates the technology of both MIM-104 Patriot and S-300.

Source and back up with facts and link for you BIG CLAIM.

ofcourse this is the south china sea issue and idnia's stupid unnecessary involvement


HAL SENIORS REJECTED PRODUCTION OF F-16 & F-18 JUST FEW WEEKS AGO DURING VISIT OF CARTER

J-11 & Eurfighter are best answers .

J-11 in one go can cover from karachi till calcutta (Deep penetration Strike ) WoW

J-11 could not be exported due to IPR Voilation as it is build on the Su-27 technology and design, and is still powered by Russian Engine.

HAL SENIORS REJECTED PRODUCTION OF F-16 & F-18 JUST FEW WEEKS AGO DURING VISIT OF CARTER

HAL have rejected, they are free to choose the Indian PVT company such as TATA .

 

[Abingdonboy]

The much touted but ill-planned and managed "Make in India" policy

How can the "Make in India" policy be termed as "ill-planned/managed" considering it has only been in place for the best part of 18 months, these kind of landmark policies cannot be judged after such a limited implementation period. Thus it may be difficult to properly judge the MII policy thus far but the fact that India is now the largest global FDI recipient says something.

This will lead to another delay with the IAF having to resort to further numbers of MKIs or(as is common in Indian defence procurements) do a U-Turn and end up purchasing yet another platform.

Nope. Dassualt are already in advanced talks to set up a production line in India for the Rafale for at least 90 more (36+90=126 ie the orginal MMRCA) for the IAF.

The mistake you are making sir is that you are assuming past mistakes are to be repeated and failing to consider the different dynamics that now exist in India's government. I'm no Modi fanboy but implementation is his forte and he is results driven and he is turning the lethargic Indian system around bit by bit. The Rafale deal is actually testiment to this; in late 2014 the MMRCA process is scrapped entirely, in April 2015 Modi visits Paris and intiates entirely seperate talks for 36 Rafales to be prcured off the shelf (with an option for 18 more), a year later the deal is all but finalised with favourable industrial benefits (50% offsets), price and customisation agreed.

The biggest threat the Rafale does bring is the AASM.

Indeed and the AASM is to be made in India (a JV has been formed in India recently), the AASM will also be pitched to be fitted on the Su-30MKIs (as part of their "Super" upgrade), LCAs, Mirage 2000-5 Mk.2s and the Indian Navy's MiG-29Ks.

While its A2A capability is impressive, I would not much too much weight against the current well network Air assets of the PAF. It is still going to take losses at similar rates as the MKI against the combination of F-16s and JF-17s with their respective BVRs.

So the Rafale's AESA radar and unmatched SPECTRA suite count for nothing?

@Taygibay @Picdelamirand-oil @Vauban the Rafale brings nothing to the table vis a vis a fight aganst the F-16 or JF-17 that the MKI can't already do apparently.

Unless the Indian private sector is opened up and the MoD being given a better procurement process than the current red tape ridden marathon; the IAF is going to take a lot longer to modernize.

Is this not happening? More licences than ever have been awarded to the Indian private sector, all areas of the defence market in India has been opened up to the private sector, the DPP-2016 announced in April 2016 explictly favours Indian private sector led projects. Talking specifics, Kaylani group has become the lead production agency for the DRDO's ATAGS, L&T's bid has been selected to manufacutre the K9 SPG in India for the IA, TATA has been awarded the contract to produce C-295s in India, the Rafale will be built with an Indian private player, HAL is already outsourcing work to the private secotr and ramping this up to meet their target of 25 LCA/year prodcutive capacity by 2020 , the FICV project (worth >$15BN USD) has been opened to private sector lead consortiums (TATA, L&T, Mahindra, Kaylani group etc) etc etc etc the list goes on and on and this is within 24 months of this present govt- another 3 years will see some serious progress especially now DPP-2016 is in place.

@PARIKRAMA

HAL SENIORS REJECTED PRODUCTION OF F-16 & F-18 JUST FEW WEEKS AGO DURING VISIT OF CARTER

No one is interested in the outdated F-18 and F-16 for the IAF or IN (in the F-18's case).