PAF & the ramifications of Rafale's sale to India

[denel]

Well our Mirage platform only became stagnant, since we started the JF17 thunder platform
It became stagnant becasue we ourselves choose it to become as such

A plane can continuously evolve
Example :

• F15 Became F-15SE
  
• F16 evolved into F16 C/D or F16 UAE
• Gripen evolved into Gripen NG

However , the engineering base we have for Mirage is on par with Thunder. Why should the Engineering base for MRF should be lost ? When the same engineers can help bring in another 200 planes from open market. Let us use their knowledge

It makes 100% logical sense. We just need to match the Technology improvements with platform, if we are missing 2-5% air-frame items , just manufacture it with collaboration

No major Engineering Training would be needed or minimal

Engineering base > any 1 single plane even if it is F-35

Between 2000 and 2016, obviously the Avionics market has boomed in China / Pakistan world wide, and also new technologies have emerged.

Biggest factor , Mirage units (Old , lets call it Block 1) are undeniably available , as people don't have understanding to maintain them or keep them flying. We have that "Engineering base"

• 1%-2% Cost compared to 100 Million Rafael , for procurement cost , then obviously the upgrades we will do will be done locally Made in Pakistan initiative (Already proven)

Cost of RAFALE :

• 100 Million

Cost of Mirage NG project :

• 200k-500k (Initial Purchase even more cheaper)
• 12 Million (Next Gen Radar / Avionics/ HUD / Helmet)
• 2 Million (Targeting POD)
• MLU'ed at Mirage Rebuild Factory servicing and QA check (1 Million)

• 3 Billion investment will give us 360 Mirage Modern New Generation fleet vs odd 8 planes we get here and there

[The cost of radar or avionics would be less now that we have done bulk of research already with Thunder platform]

• Next Gen BVR missiles can be procured in abundance with new Radar with Large Range , which should effectively increase potency of the jet

Keep our DELTA wing flying, if Air-frame is old , rebuild brand new one locally we paid for old frame, it is just metal work , we already have the structural copy in hand. Put a local tender for company to make it in Pakistan

> We have 160 Mirages
> Purchase 200 Units in Open market (DIRT DIRT DIRT Cheap)
> Launch a Next Generation Avionics & Radar Initiative in Pakistan , PUT THE DAMN
MONEY HERE, local R&D
> Add in BVR from China Top of Line - get rid of low range shit use it some where
> Get Pods from Turkey /China / France
> Retro fit the Helmet technology we are making from Thunder in to Mirage

Collective force of 360 Units should keep Teja in check

Thunder's Growth:

• This is already going at its own designated pace and mile stone 100% correct decision
  
• Block 3 promises to be awesome
  
• Getting all the necessary updates we planed 20 years ago
• Grow it as per our need 150 , 250 , 300 , 500 as needed

**Make sure the 360 Delta Wing (Next GEN Mirage) & 150-500 Thunders
(Can talk to Chinese AWAC and share data) - Chinese AWAC platform is
here to stay. And he 360 Units should help maintain any Air defense needs



However if we are filthy rich $$$$$$$$$ , I mean really filthy rich $$$$$$

> By all means get the troubled F-35
> Sukhoi -35
> Typhoon
> Rafale
> F18
> F16 etc


2-3 planes or 8 planes is not going to cut it

I would rather have 360 Mirage (Next Gen Upgrade) , plus 150-200 Thunder (Block 2-3) in air
with BVR (Classified Range)

• Then fly 4-5 purchased planes with the most amazing video game like display

No friend. Obsolescence is part of life; Mirage 3/5 has reached its end of life. The alternative is to move to Mirage 2000. It is the most comparable to F-16; there are plenty out there being phased out; just have to look at Greeks vs Turkish jet skirms; Mirage 2000 knocked f16s out twice. The Mirage rebuild can be leveraged to move toward this new platform; they already know the mirage itself.
We went the Cheetah route back in late 80s and took apart the Mirage and rebuilt it into a completely new aircraft but there comes a time when you ahve to state that it has reached its limits.

View attachment 300992

View attachment 300999

* Develop 1 Standard for upgrade for Existing 165 planes and the new 200 planes to be picked
from open market. MLU could be done locally or with international collaboration

* Under this proposal , if Air-force decides we can even just move with J11 , production line

If this was to be done; please contact Atlas - they will be very happy to do the entire work based on Cheetah. Our teams have already collaborated with you on many aspects on the Mirage.

 

[Abingdonboy]

One point to note is the timing.

RAFALEs would be inducted into IAF ~2020. J-31 should be available to Pakistan by then.

The first IAF Rafales will be delivered in early 2019 and I would take the Rafale over the J-31 or J-20 any day of the week.

 

[cerberus]

1. So you don't Consider LCA Tejas Mk-1 as 4th Generation combat Plane.

Why Not LCA is Indeed a 4th gen fighter

1. LCA Has Ability to Fire HOBS IIR CCM Missile With DASH III HMDS
2. Use of High Composite Material & Kevlar which generate Low RCS
3. Totally Indigenous Spare Flow chain & MRO's Which Make its Serviceability High
4. Elta 2052 AESA

 

[Abingdonboy]

Sir why r u silent on rafale's exorbitant cost

Exorbitant by what measure? Compared to what?

For the immediate term, if the Rafale deal goes through as Parikrama mentioned in his post, 36 will be direct buy, 90 under MII. I however, do not see the Indian Navy acquiring the Rafale, quite simply because the INS Vishal won't be ready for sea trials atleast for another 10 years and to acquire a 4.5 gen Rafale when plenty of 5th gen options like F-35C, Naval PAKFA and possibly even a Naval AMCA are available at that moment is being quite silly.

It is possible the IAF get more but I think for now 126 fighters in total. Ideally, IAF can order another 54 to take the total to 180 by 2027 i.e 2 sqds of 18 aircraft i.e 36 aircraft for each of 5 air commands, thats a good number. The price of 7.8 billion being quoted for 36, though still high is back to be being in line as timelines of the Brazilian deal so its certainly a more attractive deal.

Rafale M is a certainty for the IN now, the Naval FGFA is of no interest to the IN neither is the F-35C and the N-AMCA is 20+ years away. The Rafale-M will be the future of the IN's fighter stream as it allows them the ability to standardise on a single type with the Rafale able to launch from both STOBAR and CATOBAR carries. If the Rafale-am was noticing you'd have seen some more MIG-29K orders by now given the IAC-1 will be going To sea trails in 2 years. There isn't even a whiff of such a deal (like the S-400s,SSNs, more V5s etc).

 

[Abingdonboy]

+ @Topic, I find the entire premise of this thread a bit laughable considering the PAF hasn't exactly dealt with the ramifications of 300+ MKIs. This game of false equivalency many on here try to engage in is rather bizzare IMO.

So u r ok with french demand for $13 billion for 36 rafales.

$13 billion? What nonsense is this? The price as been agreed- $9BN (approx) with 50% offsets and a lot of "sweeteners" between India and France assured.

 

[v9s]

+ @Topic, I find the entire premise of this thread a bit laughable considering the PAF hasn't exactly dealt with the ramifications of 300+ MKIs.

Considering the MKI's have such shitty serviceability rates (even though it's "Made in India"), the MKI's have been dealt with PAF's F-16's.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Considering the MKI's have such shitty serviceability rates (even though it's "Made in India"), the MKI's have been dealt with PAF's F-16's.

75% is not bad for a heavy weight twin engined air dominance fighter and a Russian one at that. Even if the F-16 has 100% availability rates (which they don't) they will still be outnumbered >2:1 by a superior plane. You're meant to offset a numerical disadvantage with a qualitative advantage but the PAF has not been able to do that.

 

[CHACHA"G"]

A.A All
Here is my second post. As I said in my first post which might be gone throw your eyes , only way to have tech and numbers in paf is to build at home ,,, Yes u like it or not all birds out there in market are too much expansive,
@AZADPAKISTAN2009 as says about Mirage if u think it is madness or to outdated then what about J10C(p)
it is a delta wing bird talk with china bring this baby with our own needed upgrades in all expects let them be a mutant 4.5 gen single engine delta wing multirole (air to air and air to ground ) fighter , made in Pakistan less expensive and majority of money stays in Pakistan in long run will help keep delta wing strike force in paf ,(we already have lot of experience in this type of birds and a factory as MRF that can be turned in to J10C(p) Building and maintenance factory) , AND a very very good replacement for all of mirages we can build 150 to 200 of them they will surely stay 20 to 25 years in our service ,and a good counter to indian Teja and older 4 or 4+ gen gets
Note: J10c(p) is not a replacement for F16 but with all the upgrades the (p) in it it will surly not less the F16 block 60 at least . Please forgive for any mistake thanks
@ Manticore @Zarvan @MastanKhan

 

[majid mehmood]

guys i dont understand the iaf logic
just see they have signed the deal now in march after 2 years iaf will get the first batch ONLY and that too could be only 18 planes in 2018 and and by start of 2020 iaf will get last batch
at this time 5th gen would have almost taken over around the world about 40% what would iaf do with these 4.5gen fighters which they just got at that time
really i dont understand iaf logics
for me its just a waste of money and resorces if rafale was for only 2 billion then would be a good deal
i never thought iaf would have gone to this level of STUPIDITY

 

[MKC]

A.A All
Here is my second post. As I said in my first post which might be gone throw your eyes , only way to have tech and numbers in paf is to build at home ,,, Yes u like it or not all birds out there in market are too much expansive,
@AZADPAKISTAN2009 as says about Mirage if u think it is madness or to outdated then what about J10C(p)
it is a delta wing bird talk with china bring this baby with our own needed upgrades in all expects let them be a mutant 4.5 gen single engine delta wing multirole (air to air and air to ground ) fighter , made in Pakistan less expensive and majority of money stays in Pakistan in long run will help keep delta wing strike force in paf ,(we already have lot of experience in this type of birds and a factory as MRF that can be turned in to J10C(p) Building and maintenance factory) , AND a very very good replacement for all of mirages we can build 150 to 200 of them they will surely stay 20 to 25 years in our service ,and a good counter to indian Teja and older 4 or 4+ gen gets
Note: J10c(p) is not a replacement for F16 but with all the upgrades the (p) in it it will surly not less the F16 block 60 at least . Please forgive for any mistake thanks
@ Manticore @Zarvan @MastanKhan

First try to know difference between Teja & Tejas then counter it with Mirage.
Also difference between Bharat, Bharati & Bharatiya.

Sir i cannot post link . Google rafale deal the hindu.

I tried before you posted this but I didn't find, you might have read any old news.

guys i dont understand the iaf logic
just see they have signed the deal now in march after 2 years iaf will get the first batch ONLY and that too could be only 18 planes in 2018 and and by start of 2020 iaf will get last batch
at this time 5th gen would have almost taken over around the world about 40% what would iaf do with these 4.5gen fighters which they just got at that time
really i dont understand iaf logics
for me its just a waste of money and resorces if rafale was for only 2 billion then would be a good deal
i never thought iaf would have gone to this level of STUPIDITY

Which 5G aircraft will be in service in 2020?
There are still 4G aircrafts under development.
Fourth-generation jet fighter

 

[mikkix]

guys i dont understand the iaf logic
just see they have signed the deal now in march after 2 years iaf will get the first batch ONLY and that too could be only 18 planes in 2018 and and by start of 2020 iaf will get last batch
at this time 5th gen would have almost taken over around the world about 40% what would iaf do with these 4.5gen fighters which they just got at that time
really i dont understand iaf logics
for me its just a waste of money and resorces if rafale was for only 2 billion then would be a good deal
i never thought iaf would have gone to this level of STUPIDITY

Its a good decision on the indian part.
Iaf has enough money and they will soon sign other deals. Dont look it like they are getting 4.5 gen planes take it as a force to reckon against China and Pakistan.

 

[MilSpec]

Sir,
a bit off topic, but from planners point of view, do you feel, IAF wants RAFALE as counter to rapidly increasing fleet of 4++ generation fighters of PLAAF and not necessarily what Pakistan is getting.
One on One, IAF might not be able to cover for what China is allowing its Air Force to acquire and therefore, India might be looking for a significantly superior (in terms of avionics atleast) fighter to cover for a hypothetical threat scenario involving reasonable number of fighters China would deploy in a conflict against India.
Mathematically, Chinese Airpower will eventually dominate India's, but with induction of such massively advanced fighters, India might inflict a damage, that could be actually more than the cost, China might be willing to bear.
India too would want to maintain a minimum deterrence against China and with such developments, this minimum line on y axis, might go a bit higher.
(I write all this with a limited knowledge of platform comparisons between what India and China have).

Without a minimum of 42 squadrons of 4.5th gen Platforms, it will be a tall task to mitigate PLAAF and my apprehension is this not 62, if there is aggression from PLAAF, smart money says there will be at the least aggressive posturing from PAF.

The intent of the 186 units of MMRCA was originally to mitigate PLAAF risk and by doing so PAF issues would be countered, but the cost buttressed the intent so now we continue to face a significant risk. This is strictly speaking from the operational perspective, but the political reality is conflict with PLA is quite unlikely, and thus we must prepare for the war that we actually fight rather than the ones we can imagine.

Albeit that PLAAF has a significant advantage in number, but the number of air assets India has is no easy walk over for PLAAF in any realm. And I would dis agree to the minimum credible deterrence idea against of PLAAF, there is no one shoe fits all doctrine, We need to have a clear strategic road map for mitigating PLAAF, and some of it might be to increase numbers of Strike multirole platforms like MMRCA and MKI which can be moved from any command to required theater of combat to not just defend Indian airspace, but to have a solid ingress in enemy airspace too.

In the beginning I said we need to move to 42 sqdns minimum of 4.5th gen minimum for all IAF platforms, even if it means moving some of the legacy 3rd gen and early 4th Gen (Jaguar, even M2K) to Navy in coastal defence and maritime strike roles, even if not transferred to IN, atleast be specified for the Maritime role in IAF.

Our nightmare will begin with introduction of J20 in the neighborhood, We better have an offensive answer to a stealth platform in the next decade, or else there will be no other option than a US alliance.

 

[wiseone2]

guys i dont understand the iaf logic
just see they have signed the deal now in march after 2 years iaf will get the first batch ONLY and that too could be only 18 planes in 2018 and and by start of 2020 iaf will get last batch
at this time 5th gen would have almost taken over around the world about 40% what would iaf do with these 4.5gen fighters which they just got at that time
really i dont understand iaf logics
for me its just a waste of money and resorces if rafale was for only 2 billion then would be a good deal
i never thought iaf would have gone to this level of STUPIDITY

You are assuming countries not named America can build a 5th generation aircraft

How differnet?
The flight envelopes won t be much different

lot of variations - engines, avionics

IMO the threat from Rafael will be a factor in 2019/20 and right now we need to worry about other modifications and arsenal that IAF and IN has.
Pakistan needs development on all the 3 fronts i.e PN, PAF and PA... there needs to be a consistent and a stubborn approach to get the best of what is available...

b) we need work on a ground to air missile... the idea should be that it should be mobile... as small as possible and kind of replicates hwat mujahideen did to USSR in afghanistan but the range and kill ratio should be x 2 / 3.
Both a and b will make IAF uneasy to say the least and these couple with PAF should be sufficient for the near future.

c) We need MI28-Hind in numbers. the number of helicopters need to be decreased and a pakistan version of Z10 or T129 should be included.

thanks to CPEC we will be in a take off position provided we dont mess it up. Tax collection should be the biggest priority for us. its a shame that only 18 lacs pay taxes, amongst which... more than or close to 80% are people whose tax is deducted at source. Thousands alone are buying audis, mercs, Beemers, Bently, Ferraris etc... thousand more buy from stores which sell house hold electronics like sonos faber etc... thousands of people live in 3 kanal plus (1500 sq yard) houses in DHAs and similar socities where cost of plot only is 100 million plus... Tax them. Tax the doctors, tax the hospitals (Private hospitals pay very little tax), tax the lawyers and most of all tax anyone with land above 1,000 or max 2,000 acres.

The Muhajdeen in Afghanistan had heat seeking missiles to shoot down low flying helicopters and aircraft. Those missiles do not work for high altitude air defense

Mi-28 attack helicopters are useless against the Rafale.

Collecting taxes to prop up your military without tangible benefits to the taxpayers will not work. It will make your military and your government unpopular

 

[zebra7]

How differnet?
The flight envelopes won t be much different

IAF Su-30 MKI and PLAAF Su-30 MKK difference
1. MKI is Twin Seater, and always have the advantage of the interleaved operation of two Pilot.
2. MKI have TVC -- 2.5 D , which MKK don't have.
3. MKI pocess Powerfull N01 M Bars, a powerful PESA Radar, which MKK don't have.
4. MKI have Cannard, which MKK don't have.
5. MKI have western (French, Israeli, Indian) avionics components.

As far as flight profile is considered, the Cannard, and the 2.5 D Thrust Vector Nozzle makes, both the flight profile different.

 

[MilSpec]

Thanks for one of the most balanced and thought provoking post I have read on this forum.

I, respectfully, differ with you on your opinion of combat range of J-31. Combat range (not combat range mentioned in most open source data) of earlier Mig 29 version in use by East German AF and later luftwaffe (based on high subsonic cruise to area of operation, 10 minutes loiter, 1 minute of after burner, high subsonic cruise back to home base) is calculated to be about 150 NM radius. This most probably is because of its very low fuel fraction for two engines although RD-33 Specific fuel consumption is better than sencema engine Rafale carries. j-31 is rumoured to have a much better fuel fraction with about 7 tons of fuel and RD-93 has similar SFC to RD-33. Also I'll want to know your opinion about why Rafale combat range with internal fuel will be better than F-16 (or forgive me for mentioning JF-17) when both have better fuel fraction and better SFC as both are single engined with very good SFC.

Advertised combat range and theater specific operational range are two different things, It's similar to a mileage 24 mpg advertised on my 335 whereas getting less than 10 on a track day.

Now to get an apples to apples comparison, mig35 and Mig29K's are good candidates as they actually have a more advanced variant of the rd33 series - MK on them compared to a 93 variant on the J31.

Now with similar wing loading, and weight, there is a high probability that J31 carries the same internal fuel, and with a higher core temp for compressor stage, it is safe to assume that the RD93 actually has a lower specific fuel consumption rate than the RD33MK, or else you wouldn't see the MK variant on Mig35 and the 29K.
Another reason why J31 will take a internal fuel penalty is due to the internal weapons bay in the airframe with the same wing area as the fulcrums, these factors to me indicate a 20-30% lesser range on the J31 compared to a mig 35 or a Mig29K.

Now coming to F16 and rafales,
the GE F110 has a SFC of 1 98lb/hr/lb compare that to m88 's SFC of 0.78 lbm/lbf·h. It is evident that from performance aspect you have a more efficient engine on the rafale, in addition to that rafale's can supercruise which is incredible advantageous when it comes to getting from point A to point B in the most efficient manner. So to answer your query, yes Rafales will have a better fuel utilization and a better combat range than the F16Blk52's.