PAF & the ramifications of Rafale's sale to India

[Stephen Cohen]

Won't happen, the Mig-29K will remain a strictly Naval aircraft. As for Indian Rafales on US carriers won't happen because we are not even sure the Rafale will be acquired in those timelines where Naval AMCA, F-35C and Naval FGFA are available. You're hoping for interoperability but that will only happen if we sign CISMOA and that won't happen either unless the text is re-written without intrusive clauses. We have denied request for joint patrols, joint fighter ops from the same carrier is out of the question for now even during excercises.

Let us wait and watch ; what happens in the future

 

[Mirza Jatt]

I second that Spectre. IMO IAF is well equipped even in current situation to totally take on PAF and still have an upper hand..MKIs are the advantage I am talking about here combined with upgraded mirage. Rafales are mainly to close the gap with China.

 

[ZAC1]

Pakistan will get more f-16s C/D in near future.As Jf-17 block 3 will be operational till 2019 with at least 2 squadrons have AESA capability.but if US don't provide more F-16 C/D then i can bet we will have J-10B for interim solution

 

[anant_s]

PAF's priority remains the same, Minimum credible defence against India. This is no different than introduction of Mirage 2000 in the late 80's with Mig29 as a frontline fighter. It is similar with Rafale coming into the equation and it's relevance is even lower because MKI poses a similar operational challenge.

Sir,
a bit off topic, but from planners point of view, do you feel, IAF wants RAFALE as counter to rapidly increasing fleet of 4++ generation fighters of PLAAF and not necessarily what Pakistan is getting.
One on One, IAF might not be able to cover for what China is allowing its Air Force to acquire and therefore, India might be looking for a significantly superior (in terms of avionics atleast) fighter to cover for a hypothetical threat scenario involving reasonable number of fighters China would deploy in a conflict against India.
Mathematically, Chinese Airpower will eventually dominate India's, but with induction of such massively advanced fighters, India might inflict a damage, that could be actually more than the cost, China might be willing to bear.
India too would want to maintain a minimum deterrence against China and with such developments, this minimum line on y axis, might go a bit higher.
(I write all this with a limited knowledge of platform comparisons between what India and China have).

 

[Hamza913]

The FGFA is good 15-20 yrs away by that time PAF would be considering TFX or some 6th Gen weapon systems.

As quoted earlier 4 th generation are a must for Indian Air Force but for PAF there is no need because it has got two already.


Please read my reply to @Humble Analyst post # 140 above.

Surgical strikes can only be a short term solution but not permanent.

I know they don't work long term, which is why I said negotiate. But when things go wrong in negotiations, then we should launch surgical strikes. That routine sounds much better than building an expensive wall or launching a full scale war.

Sir,
a bit off topic, but from planners point of view, do you feel, IAF wants RAFALE as counter to rapidly increasing fleet of 4++ generation fighters of PLAAF and not necessarily what Pakistan is getting.
One on One, IAF might not be able to cover for what China is allowing its Air Force to acquire and therefore, India might be looking for a significantly superior (in terms of avionics atleast) fighter to cover for a hypothetical threat scenario involving reasonable number of fighters China would deploy in a conflict against India.
Mathematically, Chinese Airpower will eventually dominate India's, but with induction of such massively advanced fighters, India might inflict a damage, that could be actually more than the cost, China might be willing to bear.
India too would want to maintain a minimum deterrence against China and with such developments, this minimum line on y axis, might go a bit higher.
(I write all this with a limited knowledge of platform comparisons between what India and China have).

The Rafale would probably be best used for India's Aircraft carriers. The IAF doesn't really need them.

 

[ACE OF THE AIR]

Back up you claim with facts.
TFX is still in Papers, and for Sixth Gen Weapon System, first you need 5th Generation equipments.

Here you go.
http://www.defensenews.com/story/de...domestic-indian-aircraft-production/80229070/

http://www.militaryfactory.com/aircraft/detail.asp?aircraft_id=1083

http://www.defenceupdate.in/hal-amca-indias-fifth-generation-fighter-update/

Articles indicate that the delivery dates of both FGFA and AMCA would be available between 2025 - 2032.

For the updates on TFX and its availability go to the relevant thread.

1. So you don't Consider LCA Tejas Mk-1 as 4th Generation combat Plane. Always remember Dhruv takes decades to be build by HAL with many ups and downs, but check out the LCH, LUH, LAH latter on.
2. Read about the Combat HAWK, and the LCA Mk-1 Trainer as the LIFT cum CAS platform.
3. Pls also consider the modernization of Mig 29 to MIG 29 UPG, Jaguar to Jaguar Darin -3 and Mirrage 2000 H to Mirrage 2005 standard Upgradation, been done by India, which is going on as we speak.
4. Pls consider the LCA MK-2 updates, which will have the first flight by 2018-19, Indegineous Uttam AESA, DRDO AWAACS, of which 6 are Airbus 330 based, Tanker Fleets, Transportation fleet Upgradation and modernisation.

Where and how did you come to conclude from my post this :
1. So you don't Consider LCA Tejas Mk-1 as 4th Generation combat Plane.

The reason for adding more 4 gen or 4++ gen aircraft by India is based on the Two Front War and IN aircraft carriers ability to engage China in their back yard (South China Sea). Hence the existing assets Migs, Mirage 2000 and the Jag's would be used on the Western Theater. Top Cover to be provided by SU-30 MKI's.

why I said negotiate

Negotiation can go hand in hand with permanent solutions. The capabilities of the Afghan Defence Forces is limited. There is also a trust deficit between the two sides.

Russia is also very worried that an other civil war like situation might arise because NATO has not build up the capabilities of local law enforcement out of fear that they might turn against them. Afghans can not get weapons that are offensive from India because India fears that their technology would some how end in the hands of Pakistan.

It's 2016 & you are talking about 2031-2036 or what will happen after 15-20 years.
IAF currently has 69 Mig-29 which was originally built to counter F-16, as old as F-16s of PAF, till now only 76+8 F-16 a& 66 JF-17 are operational.
312 MKIs on order, 242 already operational, may be more ordered to keep production line operational till FGFA starts production.
IN has 45 Mig-29K which is much better than Mig-29, you know at least 45 more aircraft will be ordered for IAC-I.
IAF is not going to stop to 36 Rafales MMRCA was for 126+63 aircraft that will be bought before AMCA comes.
You are right in 2031 PAF will be considering TFX for AMCA or FGFA as it is considering F-16 or JF17 today for Rafales.

TFX would be a great addition because PAF would never rely on one supplier be it how trust worthy it may be.

 

[rockstarIN]

Well, i'm not a big fan of JFT as stated by @MilSpec @PARIKRAMA though that is an excellent jump for pakistan from the current series jets.

It is a light fighter, at the core and the usage is limited for any counter attack. Like IAF insisted, they need an LCA which can fight the low tier PLAF jet, which is J-10 over Chinese territory.

But since it is the best option PAF have, which gives them a huge jump in capability, adding the same in numbers will be a good option. No need to add more expensive stuff or blocks if it does not add much capabilities.

AS of now, it is well with in PAF command and control systems which is exceptional within its budgets.

I would prefer add a MRSAM net work which gives them area denial but most importantly cover the AWACS, the most vital assets of PAF of which the first targets of IAF jets.

The longer the command system works, the higher the chances PAF has.

 

[ravinderpalrulez]

According to prasun!!-"After the Rafale MMRCA deal is inked by India, expect China to announce that the PAF will be the launch customer for the Shenyang FC-31 twin-engined MRCA. I was told about it by CATIC & AVIC officials last February during the Singapore Air Show. That's the reason why the FC-31 comes powered by twin RD-33 turbofans--the very same engines powering the JF-17 light MRCA. The PAF desperately requires a twin-engined combat aircraft that can be employed as a deep interdictor. CATIC/AVIC officials are of the view that series-production of the FC-31 will get underway only by 2020.

Will try to get some more updates from them when I meet them over the next 24/48 hours during the DSA-2016 expo in KL, Malaysia."
So no more worries for PAF!!

 

[salarsikander]

PLAAF Su-30 MKK is quite different from IAF Su-30 MKI

How differnet?
The flight envelopes won t be much different

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

* Develop 1 Standard for upgrade for Existing 165 planes and the new 200 planes to be picked
from open market. MLU could be done locally or with international collaboration

* Under this proposal , if Air-force decides we can even just move with J11 , production line

 

[Trisonics]

I wish to add a different perspective to the debate. IMO, this thread reflects how rapidly things are changing between the two nations. If Pakistan has to be seriously concerned, it should be India's navy but there is certain excitement and romance with airplanes that lead us all to debate and discuss airplanes but everyone here knows that the IN navy has pulled so far away from Pakistan's.

If you can zoom out and take a view for the distance, it's fair to conclude that India is expanding it's military might in a systematic way that Pakistan will find hard to keep pace with. There is nothing called credible alternatives since for every defensive measure that Pakistan takes India would have added something new. So where will this end?

Pakistan's only credible measure that India will fear is Pakistan's nuclear weapons. Conventional weaponry is just an arms race leading nowhere since if India continues to grow at it's current pace there is nothing Pak can do to continue matching it. There is no credible alternative but only credible defensive measures which Pakistani air force has done quite well to maintain the balance.

The bigger worry for Pakistan should be India's navy and it's upcoming projects. I will name a few here. Anti missile development, advanced military satellites and laser weapons only point to one thing; furiously tracking Pak's nuclear weapons development and counter measures. The biggest gap in Pakistan's security is second strike capability.

There are two more measures that Pakistan can take which may lead to a troll war and hence I will merely mention it.
1) Having a Chinese Navy presence in gawdar.
2) Not hopeful, but making the LOC the international border.

 

[Hamza913]

Here you go.
http://www.defensenews.com/story/de...domestic-indian-aircraft-production/80229070/

http://www.militaryfactory.com/aircraft/detail.asp?aircraft_id=1083

http://www.defenceupdate.in/hal-amca-indias-fifth-generation-fighter-update/

Articles indicate that the delivery dates of both FGFA and AMCA would be available between 2025 - 2032.

For the updates on TFX and its availability go to the relevant thread.


Where and how did you come to conclude from my post this :
1. So you don't Consider LCA Tejas Mk-1 as 4th Generation combat Plane.

The reason for adding more 4 gen or 4++ gen aircraft by India is based on the Two Front War and IN aircraft carriers ability to engage China in their back yard (South China Sea). Hence the existing assets Migs, Mirage 2000 and the Jag's would be used on the Western Theater. Top Cover to be provided by SU-30 MKI's.



Negotiation can go hand in hand with permanent solutions. The capabilities of the Afghan Defence Forces is limited. There is also a trust deficit between the two sides.

Russia is also very worried that an other civil war like situation might arise because NATO has not build up the capabilities of local law enforcement out of fear that they might turn against them. Afghans can not get weapons that are offensive from India because India fears that their technology would some how end in the hands of Pakistan.



TFX would be a great addition because PAF would never rely on one supplier be it how trust worthy it may be.

When I say negotiate, I mean make sure Afghan militants don't help their Pakistani counterparts and keep themselves outside of Pakistan. The Northen Alliance can go to hell, they don't pose any threat nor are they significant.

 

[Mav3rick]

Pakistan will get more f-16s C/D in near future.As Jf-17 block 3 will be operational till 2019 with at least 2 squadrons have AESA capability.but if US don't provide more F-16 C/D then i can bet we will have J-10B for interim solution

So we fall back to F-16's once again, despite the defeat that we have seen in the US Congress on the potential sale of a mere 8 of these Jets. And this while we have a relatively supportive US President.

People like you live in a fools paradise and this is one of the reasons why Pakistan is in such a sorry state of affairs. The MKI alone can give F-16's a run for their money and India has like 4 MKIs for each F-16 that we have!

Every time I hear the word F-16 and further procurement from US, I cannot do anything but shake my head and pray that my fellow countrymen start using their brains!!!

 

[Blue Marlin]

1) Increase the number of JF-17 blk 3 with Selex AESA radar & avionics.
2) Put some token money in J-31 or TFX program for early development. Meanwhile work on JF-17 stealth version should be initiated.
3) Get A-darter & Marlin BVR missiles with HMDS and integrate on all JF-17 blocks.
4) Get 36 customized Su-35s from Russia (having AESA-N050-Radar & K-77M bvr missiles) with approval for procurement of 60 Chinese J-11D having AL-37FU/ 117S thrust-vectoring turbofan engines. Please note that Procurement of Su-35 will open the gate for Chinese J-10s & other J series aircrafts with Russian engines.
5) Get S-350E Vityaz missile systems from Russia & Marlin SAM system from SA/Brazil for PAF.
6) Get Pantsyr-2 missile systems from Russia with Tot & Umkhonto IR Block II system for army air defence.
7) Join local production of a Mi-28 attack helicopter with dual control & 360° millimetre-wave radar system.
8) Replace all old MPDR systems with Turkish KALKAN Air Defence Radar
9) All fire control radars for guns and short range missiles should be replaced with ASELSAN Mobile Search 3D Radar.
10) PAF to introduce KORAL, a transportable system with jamming and deception capabilities that can paralyze hostile radar
11) Introduce submarine launched babar cruise missile.

do you mind putting your post in standard text next time

I think you can.... You have good relations with britain... germany is neutral and italy hates India right now... UK can pull the strings for you

if they have the meney then yes we can supply but be wary as some of the components are americain but that wont be too much of a problem. [i think]

 

[ZAC1]

So we fall back to F-16's once again, despite the defeat that we have seen in the US Congress on the potential sale of a mere 8 of these Jets. And this while we have a relatively supportive US President.

People like you live in a fools paradise and this is one of the reasons why Pakistan is in such a sorry state of affairs. The MKI alone can give F-16's a run for their money and India has like 4 MKIs for each F-16 that we have!

Every time I hear the word F-16 and further procurement from US, I cannot do anything but shake my head and pray that my fellow countrymen start using their brains!!!

i dont even like f-16 my dear one but its ours higher_ups mentality i am see towards j-10B as interim solution