PAF J-10C News, Updates and Discussion

[The Terminator]

I was wondering about J-10C as our new Mirage too! Delivering precision nuclear tipped munitions deep into Indian territories and modernizing our nuclear triad which was lagging behind due to physical limitations of the Thunders . Slapping some RAAD cruise missiles on them or some Chinese equivalent would turn them into the real fierce dragons at stand off ranges delivering punches as and when needed and that too with complete impunity and style

 

[Goritoes]

@CriticalThought
What you posted in the other thread kept me thinking of what if I am wrong based on whatever limited information + knowledge I have.

So lets put it through the simulation: @Bilal Khan (Quwa) @JamD in case you are interested

A flight of 4 J-10Cs with PL-15s and a flight of 4 Rafale F3Rs with Meteors.
In total the J-10Cs carry 16 PL-15s and 8 PL-10s along with KG-300 ECM pods while the Rafale's 16 Meteors and 8 MICA EMs along with 8 MICA IRs as well(SPECTRA BUILT IN)
Max Range of PL-15 is simulated at 92nm while the Meteor is at 75nm.

Both located at 36000ft, facing each other and at 200nm out - same simulated skill level.
They both have access to their respective DLs and the side overall is capable of exploiting other sensors but no AEW in place.
This is a straight charge in with no collective offset tactics or approaches - pretty much medieval knights riding to meet each other with sensor/weapons performance what we are looking to see.

Now I cannot change what the programmers of this simulation consider their values for sensor and weapons parameters and I do feel they have assigned the radar range to the J-10C lower than what it is(closer to the JF-17 Block 3) but that is offset to an extent by the range of the PL-15.
Additionally, they also limited the J-10C to only being able to guide 1 PL-15 at a time when that is not the case in reality. It does however somewhat simulate the block-3 to an extent as well so the initial results can be taken analogous to that engagement too barring the block-3s slightly smaller RCS.
To make this engagement fair I limit the Rafale's to launch 1 weapon at each target as well.

Finally, I AM HANDS OFF - no interference.

Quick snapshot shows the detection/engagement range of the J-10(White circle at 75nm) and the weapons range in red.

View attachment 805184

The Rafale has a detection range of 140nm - so nearly twice that of the J-10C shown but then its stick is shorter.

View attachment 805187

Both flights proceed to engage keeping the same altitude and fairly same kinematics as well with the J-10C approaching the max weapons range

View attachment 805190

At exactly 74nm the J-10Cs launch their PL-15s at the Rafales who are in weapons range for the Meteor but dont launch yet.

View attachment 805193

Finally at 70NMs the Meteors are also launch and the Rafale's start to notch - the J-10Cs are still not notching!
View attachment 805194
View attachment 805195

The Meteors don't loft as much as the PL-15s but the Meteors are FASTER due to their Ramjet propulsion and get to their target FASTER!
They go active and the J-10s are finally defending.

View attachment 805196

All 4 J-10Cs are gone while the PL-15s are still in the air!
View attachment 805197



WHEN the PL-15s do arrive they hit 2 Rafale's while the others are able to dodge and get away - thus ended attempt 1 at the simulation.
Since it works as if a dice is rolled in terms of calculating everything from "pilot" responses to weapon impacts I ran it 3 more times.

#2 - J-10Cs all lost, 1 Rafale remains

#3 - J-10Cs 1 survives the first volley while 2 Rafale's survive. ONCE this J-10C survives and both flow Hot again, it launches at another Rafale to bring it down and survives a Meteor. It launches again at the second Rafale and brings it down as well.

#4. No J-10Cs survive and 1 Rafale Survives.

However, as I mentioned the issue lies with the simulated radar range for the J-10C and this result may reflect more the Block-3 rather than the J-10CPs.
so perhaps suited to the other thread but the JF-17 Block-3 isnt some antidote for the Rafale and probably more akin to a numbers equalizer to outstick the IAF.

But, I wasnt done so I manipulated the database and increased the range of the J-10Cs radar to 100nm and allowing them (and the Rafale's) to guide 2 missiles at a time.
Doing that changed the whole game entirely -

Now the J-10Cs werent only launching right at the edge of the PL-15s range but also able to notch more comfortably. The PL-15s would arrive and since they were 2 per target bring down all Rafale's
while the meteors where still 35nm away from the J-10Cs!
Even with their high speed at the weapon endgame the Meteors would at best bring down 2 J-10s in repeat after repeat of this scenario.

View attachment 805200


So - having done so I decided to put up all other assets of the PAF against the Rafale.

JF-17 Block-2 - 2 out of 4 times is unable to engage even and brought down by the Rafale - the other two tries brings down 1-2 Rafales

F-16AM with AIDEWS - Only in 1 engagement do they actually manage to evade the meteor and bring down 3 Rafales but still lose 3-4. Other cases it is 2-4 or 0-4 as well.

So, clearly the other assets of the PAF barring the JF-17 Block-3 and J-10C arent going to have it easy against the Rafale - sure, the chance of this simple straight in engagement are also nearly nil but it goes to simulate what a game changer the Rafale is for the IAF.

Why I state that is because I ran the simulation for other scenarios as well:

J-10C(100nm Radar) with /PL-15 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: Won 4 times and in all it was 0-4 losses
J-10C with /PL-15 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 Win 4 out of 4 times , MKI managed to bring down 1 J10C in 2 rounds.
J-10C with /PL-15 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - Win 4 out of 4 times , UPG managed to bring down 1 J10C in 1 round.
J-10C vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - Win 4 out of 4 times - No chance for Tejas they all went down for no loss to J-10C

JF-17 Block-3(simulated by J-10C with 75nm Radar) W/PL-15 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: 3 out of 4 times could not fire a single MICA and all went down
JF-17 Block-3 W/PL-15 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 - Win 3 out of 4 times-, MKI Won only 1 round after losing 2 of theirs.
JF-17 Block-3 W/PL-15 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - 2 win, 1 draw(shoot each other down) and 1 lost.
JF-17 Block-3 W/PL-15 vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - 4 times they all went down for no loss to Block-3

JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: Evenly matched on rounds- When they win it is 4-3, when they lose it is 2-4.
JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 - 4 rounds EVEN 2-2 with 1-2 JF-17 remaining
JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - 4 times it is an EVEN result with either 1 Mig-29 or JF-17 surviving - very surprising considering the MKI is a superior aircraft in paper specs.
JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - EVEN result with 2 of either aircraft remaining after winning.

F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: Won 3 out of 4.
F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 - 4 rounds EVEN 2-2 with 3-4 F-16 remaining .
F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - Win 3 out of 4 with 2-3 F-16s remaining in all wins.
F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - Won all 4 times - but nearly lost in one round with 1 F-16 remaining.

So, just my thoughts are that at this point the PAF does have the superior stick against most of IAF's fleet except the Rafale.
Stating again that this is a VERY SIMPLE scenario.

Unfortunately we do not have the Astra to simulate so cannot see what that will do to change the engagements.

Does this simulation take Radar Jamming into consideration ? If yes, then I am assuming (and don't kill me for it) Rafale has the better Jamming pods compare to J-10C's, Also second question is that, I noticed that most of your simulations are in the Punjab sector, is it possible that J-10 or Rafale perform different in a more high Altitude Terrain like the Northern Sectors? Will Mountains play a role ?

 

[syed_yusuf]

I would like to see raad and Babar alcm on j10p

 

[Reichsmarschall]

@CriticalThought
What you posted in the other thread kept me thinking of what if I am wrong based on whatever limited information + knowledge I have.

So lets put it through the simulation: @Bilal Khan (Quwa) @JamD in case you are interested

A flight of 4 J-10Cs with PL-15s and a flight of 4 Rafale F3Rs with Meteors.
In total the J-10Cs carry 16 PL-15s and 8 PL-10s along with KG-300 ECM pods while the Rafale's 16 Meteors and 8 MICA EMs along with 8 MICA IRs as well(SPECTRA BUILT IN)
Max Range of PL-15 is simulated at 92nm while the Meteor is at 75nm.

Both located at 36000ft, facing each other and at 200nm out - same simulated skill level.
They both have access to their respective DLs and the side overall is capable of exploiting other sensors but no AEW in place.
This is a straight charge in with no collective offset tactics or approaches - pretty much medieval knights riding to meet each other with sensor/weapons performance what we are looking to see.

Now I cannot change what the programmers of this simulation consider their values for sensor and weapons parameters and I do feel they have assigned the radar range to the J-10C lower than what it is(closer to the JF-17 Block 3) but that is offset to an extent by the range of the PL-15.
Additionally, they also limited the J-10C to only being able to guide 1 PL-15 at a time when that is not the case in reality. It does however somewhat simulate the block-3 to an extent as well so the initial results can be taken analogous to that engagement too barring the block-3s slightly smaller RCS.
To make this engagement fair I limit the Rafale's to launch 1 weapon at each target as well.

Finally, I AM HANDS OFF - no interference.

Quick snapshot shows the detection/engagement range of the J-10(White circle at 75nm) and the weapons range in red.

View attachment 805184

The Rafale has a detection range of 140nm - so nearly twice that of the J-10C shown but then its stick is shorter.

View attachment 805187

Both flights proceed to engage keeping the same altitude and fairly same kinematics as well with the J-10C approaching the max weapons range

View attachment 805190

At exactly 74nm the J-10Cs launch their PL-15s at the Rafales who are in weapons range for the Meteor but dont launch yet.

View attachment 805193

Finally at 70NMs the Meteors are also launch and the Rafale's start to notch - the J-10Cs are still not notching!
View attachment 805194
View attachment 805195

The Meteors don't loft as much as the PL-15s but the Meteors are FASTER due to their Ramjet propulsion and get to their target FASTER!
They go active and the J-10s are finally defending.

View attachment 805196

All 4 J-10Cs are gone while the PL-15s are still in the air!
View attachment 805197



WHEN the PL-15s do arrive they hit 2 Rafale's while the others are able to dodge and get away - thus ended attempt 1 at the simulation.
Since it works as if a dice is rolled in terms of calculating everything from "pilot" responses to weapon impacts I ran it 3 more times.

#2 - J-10Cs all lost, 1 Rafale remains

#3 - J-10Cs 1 survives the first volley while 2 Rafale's survive. ONCE this J-10C survives and both flow Hot again, it launches at another Rafale to bring it down and survives a Meteor. It launches again at the second Rafale and brings it down as well.

#4. No J-10Cs survive and 1 Rafale Survives.

However, as I mentioned the issue lies with the simulated radar range for the J-10C and this result may reflect more the Block-3 rather than the J-10CPs.
so perhaps suited to the other thread but the JF-17 Block-3 isnt some antidote for the Rafale and probably more akin to a numbers equalizer to outstick the IAF.

But, I wasnt done so I manipulated the database and increased the range of the J-10Cs radar to 100nm and allowing them (and the Rafale's) to guide 2 missiles at a time.
Doing that changed the whole game entirely -

Now the J-10Cs werent only launching right at the edge of the PL-15s range but also able to notch more comfortably. The PL-15s would arrive and since they were 2 per target bring down all Rafale's
while the meteors where still 35nm away from the J-10Cs!
Even with their high speed at the weapon endgame the Meteors would at best bring down 2 J-10s in repeat after repeat of this scenario.

View attachment 805200


So - having done so I decided to put up all other assets of the PAF against the Rafale.

JF-17 Block-2 - 2 out of 4 times is unable to engage even and brought down by the Rafale - the other two tries brings down 1-2 Rafales

F-16AM with AIDEWS - Only in 1 engagement do they actually manage to evade the meteor and bring down 3 Rafales but still lose 3-4. Other cases it is 2-4 or 0-4 as well.

So, clearly the other assets of the PAF barring the JF-17 Block-3 and J-10C arent going to have it easy against the Rafale - sure, the chance of this simple straight in engagement are also nearly nil but it goes to simulate what a game changer the Rafale is for the IAF.

Why I state that is because I ran the simulation for other scenarios as well:

J-10C(100nm Radar) with /PL-15 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: Won 4 times and in all it was 0-4 losses
J-10C with /PL-15 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 Win 4 out of 4 times , MKI managed to bring down 1 J10C in 2 rounds.
J-10C with /PL-15 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - Win 4 out of 4 times , UPG managed to bring down 1 J10C in 1 round.
J-10C vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - Win 4 out of 4 times - No chance for Tejas they all went down for no loss to J-10C

JF-17 Block-3(simulated by J-10C with 75nm Radar) W/PL-15 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: 3 out of 4 times could not fire a single MICA and all went down
JF-17 Block-3 W/PL-15 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 - Win 3 out of 4 times-, MKI Won only 1 round after losing 2 of theirs.
JF-17 Block-3 W/PL-15 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - 2 win, 1 draw(shoot each other down) and 1 lost.
JF-17 Block-3 W/PL-15 vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - 4 times they all went down for no loss to Block-3

JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: Evenly matched on rounds- When they win it is 4-3, when they lose it is 2-4.
JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 - 4 rounds EVEN 2-2 with 1-2 JF-17 remaining
JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - 4 times it is an EVEN result with either 1 Mig-29 or JF-17 surviving - very surprising considering the MKI is a superior aircraft in paper specs.
JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - EVEN result with 2 of either aircraft remaining after winning.

F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: Won 3 out of 4.
F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 - 4 rounds EVEN 2-2 with 3-4 F-16 remaining .
F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - Win 3 out of 4 with 2-3 F-16s remaining in all wins.
F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - Won all 4 times - but nearly lost in one round with 1 F-16 remaining.

So, just my thoughts are that at this point the PAF does have the superior stick against most of IAF's fleet except the Rafale.
Stating again that this is a VERY SIMPLE scenario.

Unfortunately we do not have the Astra to simulate so cannot see what that will do to change the engagements.

This post deserves it's own featured thread

 

[mingle]

I hope China allow Pakistan to integrate none-Chinese gadgets to J-10C.
Turkish SPEWS II and Targeting Pod.


ASELPOD is a high performance electro-optical reconnaissance, surveillance and targeting system designed specifically for fighter aircrafts. ASELPOD is designed as the new generation targeting pod for fighter aircrafts.

Shouldn't be a problem

 

[SQ8]

Does this simulation take Radar Jamming into consideration ? If yes, then I am assuming (and don't kill me for it) Rafale has the better Jamming pods compare to J-10C's, Also second question is that, I noticed that most of your simulations are in the Punjab sector, is it possible that J-10 or Rafale perform different in a more high Altitude Terrain like the Northern Sectors? Will Mountains play a role ?

It does take jamming and atmospheric conditions along with a host of other things into consideration.

Some of their clients

 

[Rank]

J10C is nowhere equivalent to Rafale
however, it's good enough for a Rafael with an Indian pilot

@CriticalThought
What you posted in the other thread kept me thinking of what if I am wrong based on whatever limited information + knowledge I have.

So lets put it through the simulation: @Bilal Khan (Quwa) @JamD in case you are interested

A flight of 4 J-10Cs with PL-15s and a flight of 4 Rafale F3Rs with Meteors.
In total the J-10Cs carry 16 PL-15s and 8 PL-10s along with KG-300 ECM pods while the Rafale's 16 Meteors and 8 MICA EMs along with 8 MICA IRs as well(SPECTRA BUILT IN)
Max Range of PL-15 is simulated at 92nm while the Meteor is at 75nm.

Both located at 36000ft, facing each other and at 200nm out - same simulated skill level.
They both have access to their respective DLs and the side overall is capable of exploiting other sensors but no AEW in place.
This is a straight charge in with no collective offset tactics or approaches - pretty much medieval knights riding to meet each other with sensor/weapons performance what we are looking to see.

Now I cannot change what the programmers of this simulation consider their values for sensor and weapons parameters and I do feel they have assigned the radar range to the J-10C lower than what it is(closer to the JF-17 Block 3) but that is offset to an extent by the range of the PL-15.
Additionally, they also limited the J-10C to only being able to guide 1 PL-15 at a time when that is not the case in reality. It does however somewhat simulate the block-3 to an extent as well so the initial results can be taken analogous to that engagement too barring the block-3s slightly smaller RCS.
To make this engagement fair I limit the Rafale's to launch 1 weapon at each target as well.

Finally, I AM HANDS OFF - no interference.

Quick snapshot shows the detection/engagement range of the J-10(White circle at 75nm) and the weapons range in red.

View attachment 805184

The Rafale has a detection range of 140nm - so nearly twice that of the J-10C shown but then its stick is shorter.

View attachment 805187

Both flights proceed to engage keeping the same altitude and fairly same kinematics as well with the J-10C approaching the max weapons range

View attachment 805190

At exactly 74nm the J-10Cs launch their PL-15s at the Rafales who are in weapons range for the Meteor but dont launch yet.

View attachment 805193

Finally at 70NMs the Meteors are also launch and the Rafale's start to notch - the J-10Cs are still not notching!
View attachment 805194
View attachment 805195

The Meteors don't loft as much as the PL-15s but the Meteors are FASTER due to their Ramjet propulsion and get to their target FASTER!
They go active and the J-10s are finally defending.

View attachment 805196

All 4 J-10Cs are gone while the PL-15s are still in the air!
View attachment 805197



WHEN the PL-15s do arrive they hit 2 Rafale's while the others are able to dodge and get away - thus ended attempt 1 at the simulation.
Since it works as if a dice is rolled in terms of calculating everything from "pilot" responses to weapon impacts I ran it 3 more times.

#2 - J-10Cs all lost, 1 Rafale remains

#3 - J-10Cs 1 survives the first volley while 2 Rafale's survive. ONCE this J-10C survives and both flow Hot again, it launches at another Rafale to bring it down and survives a Meteor. It launches again at the second Rafale and brings it down as well.

#4. No J-10Cs survive and 1 Rafale Survives.

However, as I mentioned the issue lies with the simulated radar range for the J-10C and this result may reflect more the Block-3 rather than the J-10CPs.
so perhaps suited to the other thread but the JF-17 Block-3 isnt some antidote for the Rafale and probably more akin to a numbers equalizer to outstick the IAF.

But, I wasnt done so I manipulated the database and increased the range of the J-10Cs radar to 100nm and allowing them (and the Rafale's) to guide 2 missiles at a time.
Doing that changed the whole game entirely -

Now the J-10Cs werent only launching right at the edge of the PL-15s range but also able to notch more comfortably. The PL-15s would arrive and since they were 2 per target bring down all Rafale's
while the meteors where still 35nm away from the J-10Cs!
Even with their high speed at the weapon endgame the Meteors would at best bring down 2 J-10s in repeat after repeat of this scenario.

View attachment 805200


So - having done so I decided to put up all other assets of the PAF against the Rafale.

JF-17 Block-2 - 2 out of 4 times is unable to engage even and brought down by the Rafale - the other two tries brings down 1-2 Rafales

F-16AM with AIDEWS - Only in 1 engagement do they actually manage to evade the meteor and bring down 3 Rafales but still lose 3-4. Other cases it is 2-4 or 0-4 as well.

So, clearly the other assets of the PAF barring the JF-17 Block-3 and J-10C arent going to have it easy against the Rafale - sure, the chance of this simple straight in engagement are also nearly nil but it goes to simulate what a game changer the Rafale is for the IAF.

Why I state that is because I ran the simulation for other scenarios as well:

J-10C(100nm Radar) with /PL-15 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: Won 4 times and in all it was 0-4 losses
J-10C with /PL-15 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 Win 4 out of 4 times , MKI managed to bring down 1 J10C in 2 rounds.
J-10C with /PL-15 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - Win 4 out of 4 times , UPG managed to bring down 1 J10C in 1 round.
J-10C vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - Win 4 out of 4 times - No chance for Tejas they all went down for no loss to J-10C

JF-17 Block-3(simulated by J-10C with 75nm Radar) W/PL-15 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: 3 out of 4 times could not fire a single MICA and all went down
JF-17 Block-3 W/PL-15 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 - Win 3 out of 4 times-, MKI Won only 1 round after losing 2 of theirs.
JF-17 Block-3 W/PL-15 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - 2 win, 1 draw(shoot each other down) and 1 lost.
JF-17 Block-3 W/PL-15 vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - 4 times they all went down for no loss to Block-3

JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: Evenly matched on rounds- When they win it is 4-3, when they lose it is 2-4.
JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 - 4 rounds EVEN 2-2 with 1-2 JF-17 remaining
JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - 4 times it is an EVEN result with either 1 Mig-29 or JF-17 surviving - very surprising considering the MKI is a superior aircraft in paper specs.
JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - EVEN result with 2 of either aircraft remaining after winning.

F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: Won 3 out of 4.
F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 - 4 rounds EVEN 2-2 with 3-4 F-16 remaining .
F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - Win 3 out of 4 with 2-3 F-16s remaining in all wins.
F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - Won all 4 times - but nearly lost in one round with 1 F-16 remaining.

So, just my thoughts are that at this point the PAF does have the superior stick against most of IAF's fleet except the Rafale.
Stating again that this is a VERY SIMPLE scenario.

Unfortunately we do not have the Astra to simulate so cannot see what that will do to change the engagements.

Brilliant!!!!

 

[iLION12345_1]

@CriticalThought
What you posted in the other thread kept me thinking of what if I am wrong based on whatever limited information + knowledge I have.

So lets put it through the simulation: @Bilal Khan (Quwa) @JamD in case you are interested

A flight of 4 J-10Cs with PL-15s and a flight of 4 Rafale F3Rs with Meteors.
In total the J-10Cs carry 16 PL-15s and 8 PL-10s along with KG-300 ECM pods while the Rafale's 16 Meteors and 8 MICA EMs along with 8 MICA IRs as well(SPECTRA BUILT IN)
Max Range of PL-15 is simulated at 92nm while the Meteor is at 75nm.

Both located at 36000ft, facing each other and at 200nm out - same simulated skill level.
They both have access to their respective DLs and the side overall is capable of exploiting other sensors but no AEW in place.
This is a straight charge in with no collective offset tactics or approaches - pretty much medieval knights riding to meet each other with sensor/weapons performance what we are looking to see.

Now I cannot change what the programmers of this simulation consider their values for sensor and weapons parameters and I do feel they have assigned the radar range to the J-10C lower than what it is(closer to the JF-17 Block 3) but that is offset to an extent by the range of the PL-15.
Additionally, they also limited the J-10C to only being able to guide 1 PL-15 at a time when that is not the case in reality. It does however somewhat simulate the block-3 to an extent as well so the initial results can be taken analogous to that engagement too barring the block-3s slightly smaller RCS.
To make this engagement fair I limit the Rafale's to launch 1 weapon at each target as well.

Finally, I AM HANDS OFF - no interference.

Quick snapshot shows the detection/engagement range of the J-10(White circle at 75nm) and the weapons range in red.

View attachment 805184

The Rafale has a detection range of 140nm - so nearly twice that of the J-10C shown but then its stick is shorter.

View attachment 805187

Both flights proceed to engage keeping the same altitude and fairly same kinematics as well with the J-10C approaching the max weapons range

View attachment 805190

At exactly 74nm the J-10Cs launch their PL-15s at the Rafales who are in weapons range for the Meteor but dont launch yet.

View attachment 805193

Finally at 70NMs the Meteors are also launch and the Rafale's start to notch - the J-10Cs are still not notching!
View attachment 805194
View attachment 805195

The Meteors don't loft as much as the PL-15s but the Meteors are FASTER due to their Ramjet propulsion and get to their target FASTER!
They go active and the J-10s are finally defending.

View attachment 805196

All 4 J-10Cs are gone while the PL-15s are still in the air!
View attachment 805197



WHEN the PL-15s do arrive they hit 2 Rafale's while the others are able to dodge and get away - thus ended attempt 1 at the simulation.
Since it works as if a dice is rolled in terms of calculating everything from "pilot" responses to weapon impacts I ran it 3 more times.

#2 - J-10Cs all lost, 1 Rafale remains

#3 - J-10Cs 1 survives the first volley while 2 Rafale's survive. ONCE this J-10C survives and both flow Hot again, it launches at another Rafale to bring it down and survives a Meteor. It launches again at the second Rafale and brings it down as well.

#4. No J-10Cs survive and 1 Rafale Survives.

However, as I mentioned the issue lies with the simulated radar range for the J-10C and this result may reflect more the Block-3 rather than the J-10CPs.
so perhaps suited to the other thread but the JF-17 Block-3 isnt some antidote for the Rafale and probably more akin to a numbers equalizer to outstick the IAF.

But, I wasnt done so I manipulated the database and increased the range of the J-10Cs radar to 100nm and allowing them (and the Rafale's) to guide 2 missiles at a time.
Doing that changed the whole game entirely -

Now the J-10Cs werent only launching right at the edge of the PL-15s range but also able to notch more comfortably. The PL-15s would arrive and since they were 2 per target bring down all Rafale's
while the meteors where still 35nm away from the J-10Cs!
Even with their high speed at the weapon endgame the Meteors would at best bring down 2 J-10s in repeat after repeat of this scenario.

View attachment 805200


So - having done so I decided to put up all other assets of the PAF against the Rafale.

JF-17 Block-2 - 2 out of 4 times is unable to engage even and brought down by the Rafale - the other two tries brings down 1-2 Rafales

F-16AM with AIDEWS - Only in 1 engagement do they actually manage to evade the meteor and bring down 3 Rafales but still lose 3-4. Other cases it is 2-4 or 0-4 as well.

So, clearly the other assets of the PAF barring the JF-17 Block-3 and J-10C arent going to have it easy against the Rafale - sure, the chance of this simple straight in engagement are also nearly nil but it goes to simulate what a game changer the Rafale is for the IAF.

Why I state that is because I ran the simulation for other scenarios as well:

J-10C(100nm Radar) with /PL-15 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: Won 4 times and in all it was 0-4 losses
J-10C with /PL-15 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 Win 4 out of 4 times , MKI managed to bring down 1 J10C in 2 rounds.
J-10C with /PL-15 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - Win 4 out of 4 times , UPG managed to bring down 1 J10C in 1 round.
J-10C vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - Win 4 out of 4 times - No chance for Tejas they all went down for no loss to J-10C

JF-17 Block-3(simulated by J-10C with 75nm Radar) W/PL-15 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: 3 out of 4 times could not fire a single MICA and all went down
JF-17 Block-3 W/PL-15 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 - Win 3 out of 4 times-, MKI Won only 1 round after losing 2 of theirs.
JF-17 Block-3 W/PL-15 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - 2 win, 1 draw(shoot each other down) and 1 lost.
JF-17 Block-3 W/PL-15 vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - 4 times they all went down for no loss to Block-3

JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: Evenly matched on rounds- When they win it is 4-3, when they lose it is 2-4.
JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 - 4 rounds EVEN 2-2 with 1-2 JF-17 remaining
JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - 4 times it is an EVEN result with either 1 Mig-29 or JF-17 surviving - very surprising considering the MKI is a superior aircraft in paper specs.
JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - EVEN result with 2 of either aircraft remaining after winning.

F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: Won 3 out of 4.
F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 - 4 rounds EVEN 2-2 with 3-4 F-16 remaining .
F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - Win 3 out of 4 with 2-3 F-16s remaining in all wins.
F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - Won all 4 times - but nearly lost in one round with 1 F-16 remaining.

So, just my thoughts are that at this point the PAF does have the superior stick against most of IAF's fleet except the Rafale.
Stating again that this is a VERY SIMPLE scenario.

Unfortunately we do not have the Astra to simulate so cannot see what that will do to change the engagements.

Amazing, would just like to point out that the KG-300 is very dated, PAF uses the KG-700A Pods on the JF-17s and I expect they will use the same on the J-10Cs.
Not sure about China still using KG-300, but they also employ KG700 and larger 800 series pods as well.

 

[SIPRA]

J10C is nowhere equivalent to Rafale
however, it's good enough for a Rafael with an Indian pilot

Perfect. A Rafael with an Indian pilot is no better than a "Khoti Rairhi".

 

[Falcon26]

@CriticalThought
What you posted in the other thread kept me thinking of what if I am wrong based on whatever limited information + knowledge I have.

So lets put it through the simulation: @Bilal Khan (Quwa) @JamD in case you are interested

A flight of 4 J-10Cs with PL-15s and a flight of 4 Rafale F3Rs with Meteors.
In total the J-10Cs carry 16 PL-15s and 8 PL-10s along with KG-300 ECM pods while the Rafale's 16 Meteors and 8 MICA EMs along with 8 MICA IRs as well(SPECTRA BUILT IN)
Max Range of PL-15 is simulated at 92nm while the Meteor is at 75nm.

Both located at 36000ft, facing each other and at 200nm out - same simulated skill level.
They both have access to their respective DLs and the side overall is capable of exploiting other sensors but no AEW in place.
This is a straight charge in with no collective offset tactics or approaches - pretty much medieval knights riding to meet each other with sensor/weapons performance what we are looking to see.

Now I cannot change what the programmers of this simulation consider their values for sensor and weapons parameters and I do feel they have assigned the radar range to the J-10C lower than what it is(closer to the JF-17 Block 3) but that is offset to an extent by the range of the PL-15.
Additionally, they also limited the J-10C to only being able to guide 1 PL-15 at a time when that is not the case in reality. It does however somewhat simulate the block-3 to an extent as well so the initial results can be taken analogous to that engagement too barring the block-3s slightly smaller RCS.
To make this engagement fair I limit the Rafale's to launch 1 weapon at each target as well.

Finally, I AM HANDS OFF - no interference.

Quick snapshot shows the detection/engagement range of the J-10(White circle at 75nm) and the weapons range in red.

View attachment 805184

The Rafale has a detection range of 140nm - so nearly twice that of the J-10C shown but then its stick is shorter.

View attachment 805187

Both flights proceed to engage keeping the same altitude and fairly same kinematics as well with the J-10C approaching the max weapons range

View attachment 805190

At exactly 74nm the J-10Cs launch their PL-15s at the Rafales who are in weapons range for the Meteor but dont launch yet.

View attachment 805193

Finally at 70NMs the Meteors are also launch and the Rafale's start to notch - the J-10Cs are still not notching!
View attachment 805194
View attachment 805195

The Meteors don't loft as much as the PL-15s but the Meteors are FASTER due to their Ramjet propulsion and get to their target FASTER!
They go active and the J-10s are finally defending.

View attachment 805196

All 4 J-10Cs are gone while the PL-15s are still in the air!
View attachment 805197



WHEN the PL-15s do arrive they hit 2 Rafale's while the others are able to dodge and get away - thus ended attempt 1 at the simulation.
Since it works as if a dice is rolled in terms of calculating everything from "pilot" responses to weapon impacts I ran it 3 more times.

#2 - J-10Cs all lost, 1 Rafale remains

#3 - J-10Cs 1 survives the first volley while 2 Rafale's survive. ONCE this J-10C survives and both flow Hot again, it launches at another Rafale to bring it down and survives a Meteor. It launches again at the second Rafale and brings it down as well.

#4. No J-10Cs survive and 1 Rafale Survives.

However, as I mentioned the issue lies with the simulated radar range for the J-10C and this result may reflect more the Block-3 rather than the J-10CPs.
so perhaps suited to the other thread but the JF-17 Block-3 isnt some antidote for the Rafale and probably more akin to a numbers equalizer to outstick the IAF.

But, I wasnt done so I manipulated the database and increased the range of the J-10Cs radar to 100nm and allowing them (and the Rafale's) to guide 2 missiles at a time.
Doing that changed the whole game entirely -

Now the J-10Cs werent only launching right at the edge of the PL-15s range but also able to notch more comfortably. The PL-15s would arrive and since they were 2 per target bring down all Rafale's
while the meteors where still 35nm away from the J-10Cs!
Even with their high speed at the weapon endgame the Meteors would at best bring down 2 J-10s in repeat after repeat of this scenario.

View attachment 805200


So - having done so I decided to put up all other assets of the PAF against the Rafale.

JF-17 Block-2 - 2 out of 4 times is unable to engage even and brought down by the Rafale - the other two tries brings down 1-2 Rafales

F-16AM with AIDEWS - Only in 1 engagement do they actually manage to evade the meteor and bring down 3 Rafales but still lose 3-4. Other cases it is 2-4 or 0-4 as well.

So, clearly the other assets of the PAF barring the JF-17 Block-3 and J-10C arent going to have it easy against the Rafale - sure, the chance of this simple straight in engagement are also nearly nil but it goes to simulate what a game changer the Rafale is for the IAF.

Why I state that is because I ran the simulation for other scenarios as well:

J-10C(100nm Radar) with /PL-15 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: Won 4 times and in all it was 0-4 losses
J-10C with /PL-15 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 Win 4 out of 4 times , MKI managed to bring down 1 J10C in 2 rounds.
J-10C with /PL-15 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - Win 4 out of 4 times , UPG managed to bring down 1 J10C in 1 round.
J-10C vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - Win 4 out of 4 times - No chance for Tejas they all went down for no loss to J-10C

JF-17 Block-3(simulated by J-10C with 75nm Radar) W/PL-15 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: 3 out of 4 times could not fire a single MICA and all went down
JF-17 Block-3 W/PL-15 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 - Win 3 out of 4 times-, MKI Won only 1 round after losing 2 of theirs.
JF-17 Block-3 W/PL-15 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - 2 win, 1 draw(shoot each other down) and 1 lost.
JF-17 Block-3 W/PL-15 vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - 4 times they all went down for no loss to Block-3

JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: Evenly matched on rounds- When they win it is 4-3, when they lose it is 2-4.
JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 - 4 rounds EVEN 2-2 with 1-2 JF-17 remaining
JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - 4 times it is an EVEN result with either 1 Mig-29 or JF-17 surviving - very surprising considering the MKI is a superior aircraft in paper specs.
JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - EVEN result with 2 of either aircraft remaining after winning.

F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: Won 3 out of 4.
F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 - 4 rounds EVEN 2-2 with 3-4 F-16 remaining .
F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - Win 3 out of 4 with 2-3 F-16s remaining in all wins.
F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - Won all 4 times - but nearly lost in one round with 1 F-16 remaining.

So, just my thoughts are that at this point the PAF does have the superior stick against most of IAF's fleet except the Rafale.
Stating again that this is a VERY SIMPLE scenario.

Unfortunately we do not have the Astra to simulate so cannot see what that will do to change the engagements.

Thanks for the simulation and the very detailed analysis. This was a treat to read!

This post got me thinking of the rumored engagements between the PLAAF J-10C and Thai Saab Gripens. Does anyone know how well the J-10c performed? It should give an indication of the capability of the J-10C. @Deino @Bilal Khan (Quwa)

 

[Goritoes]

It does take jamming and atmospheric conditions along with a host of other things into consideration.

Some of their clients
View attachment 805204

How would you rate J-10's Jamming capability, with respect to Rafale's.

 

[Basel]

Also, it might have skipped through the minds of many here but, less is seen in regard to advance and modern weapon procurement like F-16 or J-10.

Taking over the command of balancing geostrategic equation and replacing a power with more influence having control to hold the region together and with equal military power balance.

Does anyone try to understand that? US always vouch and sold weapons only as per needed power balance and keeping the influence over certain parties in the region while controlling the escalation tech. We have seen it before and that too, it was kept balanced by Pakistan. Whether USSR in Afghanistan or post Afghan war, Pakistan emerges as the regional king maker.

A fact and bit of harsh reality which is more of a truth to say that US will have hard time to forget instead of people saying that PAF is obsessed and F-16 boys wouldn't let it go. Ultimately, Pakistan is the one balancing regional conventional power by keeping ahead of only warmongering PM in East. Eventually and not to surprise, China has taken over the role of balancing the regional theater by way of weapon sale and so the economic practice. The geostrategic balance command is shifted to China and who's the key here.... Pakistan.

This fact alone hitting hard or might be hard for Viper producing and blocking Country.

China is now replacing US in this regard and the show has just begun. It's not just about J-10C but that command to control and balance regional strategic games. The most sensitive and advance tech, aka J-10 is nothing less than those Vipers in 80s for PAF. Game changing and so the geostrategic referee. For US, holding back onto something such as Viper and some other stuff believing into submission by Pakistan, was the least wrong move and apparently lost it.

What's next then? Drums of unrest and chaotic situation so that Pakistan, China and Russia be affected. Pakistan could be the first Target since only Muslim nuclear power and with unsustainable economy till now.

Game rules changing and so the game itself.

Current US behavior shows that they intentionally pushing Pakistan towards China to make us evil in front of the world in future also they see India as strategic ally so it's obvious that they will punish Pakistan for failure in Afghanistan and to make India Policeman of the region.

A strong or United Pakistan is not in favor of US future plans for region.

Same reason why people including me were against J-10 in PAF. Same era fighter with pretty much the same capability and hence little need to add another type to fleet.

J-10 C is on par with F-16 block-60 (at least) which means it's better then current PAF's F-16 fleet, also in any future war PAF will be facing sorties rate issue with F-16s (similar to Kargil time) as US is now strategic ally of India and silently hostile towards Pakistan, here J-10 will shine and allow PAF to conduct sorties without hassle of spares and related equipment.

 

[Basel]

Does this simulation take Radar Jamming into consideration ? If yes, then I am assuming (and don't kill me for it) Rafale has the better Jamming pods compare to J-10C's, Also second question is that, I noticed that most of your simulations are in the Punjab sector, is it possible that J-10 or Rafale perform different in a more high Altitude Terrain like the Northern Sectors? Will Mountains play a role ?

PAF will deploy dedicated EW birds other then it's AEWCS so it's not that easy for Rafales to go out blazing with their EW suit.

SD-10 & AIM-120 C5 have jamming homing capability too.

 

[Abid123]

How credible is the rumour that PAF is considering a Chinese flanker? I know they are expensive but even Egypt a country with limited resources like Pakistan has bought 30 SU-35. I hope we could see 36 J-16 in PAF.

 

[iLION12345_1]

How credible is the rumour that PAF is considering a Chinese flanker? I know they are expensive but even Egypt a country with limited resources like Pakistan has bought 30 SU-35. I hope we could see 36 J-16 in PAF.

Not credible at all and has been shot down several times, not because PAF wasn’t interested in flankers (they went directly to Russia for that), but because Chinese flankers aren’t for sale. China cannot sell them without Russian permission, and it doesn’t have said permission. It’s just the same delusional people that think China can and is ready to sell everything to Pakistan from J20 to J-16D to Nuclear submarines.

Besides, imo flankers don’t fit in the best with PAFs doctrine (though that can always be changed).