PAF J-10C News, Updates and Discussion

[Pakistan Space Agency]

I'm still awaiting official confirmation whether Pakistan has bought, leased or just borrowed the J-10.

There's no budget allocated to this large platform over the last few years and so I am sceptical. Super secrecy related to this acquisition doesn't add up either.

 

[Aspen]

I'm still awaiting official confirmation whether Pakistan has bought, leased or just borrowed the J-10.

There's no budget allocated to this large platform over the last few years and so I am sceptical. Super secrecy related to this acquisition doesn't add up either.

I don't think "official" confirmation will come until this plane actually lands in Pakistan but J-10 is worst kept secret of PAF at any rate. Pakistan likes to deal in secret and so does China. Even though everyone here knew J-10C was coming, I think Sheikh Rasheed admitting it this early was actually a slip up which he was not even supposed to say as the speech he was giving had nothing to do with J-10C and he just randomly decided to drop it for the audience probably because it was on his mind. But it does confirm what we already knew. Pak-China military deals are really a black box unless you are the only who is actually handling it and there is a reason for that, one of them being so that India has less time to lobby against it and throw public opposition and roadblocks in the way. India was caught totally off balance and flat footed by this announcement because they were never able to lobby against a deal that they knew nothing about, this is exactly what Pakistan and China were going for. To lobby against something, you need specifics and while there were obvious rumors here as well, I don't think anyone even on PDF had specifics about the deal as that info was really kept tight in a black box to prevent any specifics from leaking to Indian lobby in DC. Most likely these aircraft have already been made and paid for, they just have to be delivered.

 

[OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ]

Agreed. Only way I see J10CP numbers being reduced to 36 is if PAF decides to go for 36 J-31/J-35 as an initial order. Until 2025 focus will be on J10C, Project AZM, JF17B3, and upgrading all older JF17s to B3 standards. New AWAC/EW platforms also seems likely Pre-2025. In all the PAF is laying the infrastructural groundwork for the future intraduction of a 5th generation platform. I see the initial induction of atleast a squadron of 5th generations platforms by late the late 2020s

I have stated it before and will state it again. With the J10 procurement it becomes more likely now that the PAF will go full blown ahead with a delta canard designed 5th generation fighter, whether that will be CACs J20 or a redesigned version of the J20 (reduced weight/size) remains to be seen but the PAF has for decades had a close relationship with China's CAC (Producer of F7, JF17, J10, and now J20). The key requirement for the AZM program is a DEEP STRIKE STEALTH PLATFORM. The J20 fits that role far far more than the J31 would... just saying

J20 is a long range interceptor...
Chinese geography dictates that...
Going by Chinese strategy of A2/AD, they will, in coming years field some of the most sophisticated Aerial and ground stand-off weapons such as PL21 and hypersonic heat-seeking missiles etc.
Pakistan's geography doesn't allow the room for a thorough interceptor. So, the focus will remain on agile multirole, air superiority and land attack platforms.
Standoff platforms in case of Pakistan can work mostly in Naval roles(and deep strike)... where Mirage's now or perhaps something such as JH7? or it's newer iterations may work.

 

[HAIDER]

I don’t understand the obsession with TVC.

It's not an obsession, lock, and launch and turn back ...tvc is best for single engine strike fighters. Not suitable for SU30 or Flankers ..because of their weight they have to first reduce the speed and then make a turn, which gives the opponent more time to lock the plane.
TVC J10

In Air Combat “Speed is Life”. While thrust vectors can provide great manoeuvrability, it bleeds speed (energy) significantly – making the aircraft extremely vulnerable to the enemy.

You can perform excellent stunts in air shows and win the audience – showing how manoeuvrable the aircraft is.

But if a pilot performs such manoeuvres in a real combat, he’s not coming home.

The Cobra like manoeuvres are great for Air shows but complete opposite in Air combat. While the thrust vectors can help in achieving high Angle-of-attacks (pointing the nose) in near-stall like conditions, this leaves the aircraft with almost zero air speed – an easy target for the enemy.

This is even more lethal in today’s combat, with no more traditional dogfight. With HOBS (High-Off Boresight) missiles and Helmet Mounted Displays, the aircraft no longer needs to be pointing it’s nose at the target in order to launch a missile. And an aircraft having low air-speed is a much easy target for these missiles.

This is not to say that they’re complete useless. The increased AoA has advantage in combat but it’s not a silver bullet.

The real advantage of Thrust Vectors is in high-speed, supersonic manoeuvring. Using Thrust Vectors, the turn capabilities of the aircraft can be severely improved at high speeds.

Thrust Vectors has it’s advantage but this greatly depends on the pilot and the tactics. In a close-air-combat, using them is mostly suicidal.

Their effectiveness in combat is usually not substantial enough to justify huge developmental & maintenance cost of the new engines . This has been a major reason why US didn’t further develop the idea despite testing Thrust Vectoring nozzles until F-22.
It's long debate 2d or 3d tvc ... Russian made more research on tvc or US .... the role of thrust vectoring concept among US and Russian air war doctrine is totally different ..

 

[MultaniGuy]

I'm still awaiting official confirmation whether Pakistan has bought, leased or just borrowed the J-10.

There's no budget allocated to this large platform over the last few years and so I am sceptical. Super secrecy related to this acquisition doesn't add up either.

It is true, Pakistan has bought the J-10C. Even I wasn't sure about this.


Minister: Pakistan Bought Chinese J-10 Jets To Counter India’s Rafales

Sebastien Roblin
Contributor

Aerospace & Defense
I cover international security, conflict, history and aviation.

BEIJING, April 16, 2018 — File photo shows a J-10C fighter jet in a training. China's new ... [+]

Xinhua News Agency via Getty Images
On December 29, Pakistani Interior Minister Sheikh Rasheed Ahmed announced at a public event in Rawalpindi that the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) would perform a fly-over using 25 “JS-10” jet fighters newly purchased from China for the Republic Day parade on March 23.




These jets, he added, would counter the 36 Dassault Rafale jet fighters India was receiving from France.


Ahmed was likely referring to the J-10 Vigorous Dragon, a single-engine tactical fighter built by the Chengdu Aircraft Corporation in Sichuan province. Developed in the 1980s and 90s, the J-10 was similar in concept to the lightweight but high-performing F-16 jet fighter, and incorporated DNA from Israel’s cancelled Lavi fighter as well.


There has not been official confirmation (nor denial) from China or Pakistan of the buy since Ahmed’s statement, which has been primarily reported in regional press. The size of the order is unclear too: while Ahmed mentions 25 aircraft in one squadron ready by the March 23 date, other sources claim the total buy would actually be for 36 aircraft in two squadrons.


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If Ahmed’s claim that PAF J-10s will be flying before the public by March is true, it would imply Islamabad secretly arranged the purchase much earlier, as aircraft acquisitions usually take years to arrange, not months. After all, even once negotiations are concluded, it takes time to manufacture aircraft and train pilots to operate an entirely new design.


Pakistan, a longtime ally of China’s, first expressed interest in the J-10 back in 2006, but chose instead to co-manufacture with China a light fighter called the JF-17 Thunder, the latest Block III model of which introduces significant beyond-visual-range (BVR) warfare capability. However, Islamabad repeatedly explored buying the higher-performing J-10s as well, and has gained familiarity with the type in visits and joint exercises involving People’s Liberation Army Air Force J-10s.


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Chinese J10 fighter jet perform during the Pakistan Day parade in Islamabad on March 23, 2019. - ... [+]

AFP via Getty Images


It’s likely Pakistan would only buy the latest J-10C model which has Chinese-built WS-10B or WS-10C turbofan engines rather than Russian AL-31F engines used on the J-10A and J-10B, reducing political complexity of the buy. The J-10C also features an advanced Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar and compatibility with longer-distance PL-15 beyond-visual-range (BVR) missiles.

Light Fighters on the India-Pakistan Border

Though world air forces are increasingly favoring heavier, longer-range fighters, cheaper short-range light fighters appeal to countries like Pakistan and its rival India that face possible aerial engagements near their borders. For example, in 2019 fighters from India and Pakistan clashed, with India claiming one kill and Pakistan two. However, only wreckage of one Indian MiG-21 has ever been confirmed by photos (the pilot ejected), as well as fragments of an AIM-120C missile likely fired by one of Pakistan’s F-16s.

The PAF acquired its first F-16A/Bs in the 1980s, and these soon shot down between 5 and 10 Soviet and Afghan fighters on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. During the 2000s, the PAF received improved F-16C/Ds as well.

Pakistani fighters F-16 fly on November 4, 2013 during in the Azm-e-Nau-4" (New Resolve) military ... [+]
AFP via Getty Images
However, Pakistan has drawn closer to China in the last decade and has been a longtime backer of the Afghan Taliban, leading to deterioration of its relationship with the U.S., which is keen to improve relations with India.

In that context, though sale of eight additional F-16s was authorized in April 2021, the PAF can’t be sure it will retain access to F-16s and their spare parts, upgrades and munitions. The poor state of U.S.-Pakistan relations motivates renewed interest in Chinese fighters, which Pakistan began acquiring in the 1960s in the form of F-6, A-5C and F-7P/PG jets, all export models of Chinese-built spinoffs of the Soviet MiG-19 and MiG-21.

If J-10s are delivered to Pakistan, they would likely first be used to replace the PAF’s 87 delta-wing Mirage III ROSE fighters, which remain quite old despite integration of modern avionics, satellite navigation and Italian Grifo radar. The Mirage IIIs are field in one combat squadron (No. 7 “Bandits”) based at the Masroor base near Karachi, as well as the 22 Training Squadron also at Masroor, and Skybolts squadron at the Combat Commander’s School in Punjab.

In this picture taken on December 27, 2017, a Mirage aircraft of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) ... [+]
AFP via Getty Images
A match for the Rafale?

Ahmed and other Pakistani commentators explicitly cast the J-10 acquisition as a “counter” to the Rafale jets being delivered to India.

Indian Air Force's Rafale fighter jet takes off during the first day of the Aero India 2021 Airshow ... [+]
AFP via Getty Images
The J-10C does appear to be a capable F-16-like fighter, with sensors and armament that would improve the PAF’s air warfare capabilities. Though Chinese J-10s have suffered a number accidents, perhaps related to computer systems designed to stabilize its aerodynamically unstable airframe, this was also true of the similarly engineered F-16 in its early years.

However, the J-10 doesn’t qualitatively overmatch the twin-engine Dassault Rafale, which has a superior thrust-to-weight ratio, and likely boasts a more capable AESA radar and self-defense jammer. Some cynics therefore claim the buy Islamabad’s inability to pursue other options, and at least one Pakistani politician has criticized a J-10 buy, arguing Pakistan should invest in domestically developed jets.

French Defense Minister Gerard Longuet stands next to a model of the Rafale's new Active ... [+]
AFP via Getty Images
Nonetheless, the J-10C would be more capable than the PAF’s JF-17s and could potentially wield Chinese-built PL-15 missiles with a longer range than the AIM-120C missiles used on PAF F-16s. The PL-15, which is guided by an AESA radar seeker, is thought to have range lying between 124 and 187 miles, though the PL-15E export model is constrained to 90-mile range. Furthermore, the J-10C’s AESA radar (though of unknown characteristics) may give it a situational awareness edge versus Indian fighters besides the Rafale that lack AESA radars.

Confirmation of a J-10 buy should come early in 2022 if Ahmed’s statement is accurate. If true, it would mark another milestone in Pakistan’s embrace of Beijing as a patron, a big step for China’s aviation industry which has so far failed to export more advanced fighter-types, and a new chapter in the military aviation competition between India and Pakistan.


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Sebastien Roblin

Minister: Pakistan Bought Chinese J-10 Jets To Counter India’s Rafales

On Dec. 29, Pakistani Interior Minister Sheikh Rasheed Ahmed announced the Pakistan Air Force would unveil 25 newly imported “JS-10” jet fighters from China for the Republic Day parade on March 23. These jets, he added, would counter the 36 Dassault Rafale fighters India was receiving from France.

www.forbes.com

Even it popped up on USA's Forbes magazine. This is a big deal.
I was talking to my aging abba who is now in his late 70's, he says India has wasted its money on Rafales.

He said the Rafales are not that good. LOL!

 

[MultaniGuy]

View attachment 804419

Made in China stuff man won't work.
Rafale made by white man much superior.

I noticed that too, Indian posters are absent from this thread. Not suprising. Oh well who cares!

 

[MultaniGuy]

Yes bhai...

Knowing Americas past they will drop their pants when it suits them. They have almost no influence in Pakistan other than f16s and cobras.
They know that j10c is to counter their f16 position..they have no cards left.

We live in interesting times. Let's see InshAllah

I have always been the one to say never trust USA for anything.

 

[MH.Yang]

 

[jupiter2007]

I hope China allow Pakistan to integrate none-Chinese gadgets to J-10C.
Turkish SPEWS II and Targeting Pod.


ASELPOD is a high performance electro-optical reconnaissance, surveillance and targeting system designed specifically for fighter aircrafts. ASELPOD is designed as the new generation targeting pod for fighter aircrafts.

 

[The Terminator]

I believe that "Sheeda Tully" is deliberately used, for releasing such news, where some kind of confusion and vagueness is desired to be maintained.

What kind of vagueness and for whom? For general public!!!???

Ok the military seems to be more professional this way but the Army and Air force have become more and more secretive towards their large ticket acquisition programs unlike the navy which openly discusses most of its future acquisition plans. Recent examples: HQ-9, VT-4 and J-10 etc. All inducted and deployed in a meaningful numbers capable of delivering an impact, if a conflict arises.

I'm it's stark contrast, India begins promoting and projecting it's probable future acquisition plans well ahead like at least a decade or half a decade earlier.

But I think our military's can't keep facts like that secret for long especially against foreign hostile Intelligence agencies. For example, IMHO, India knew about J-10 induction well ahead of the official statement from one of our ministers. When India was being tortured and ridiculed by the Chinese in northern borders, India anticipated the integration of J-10s into PAF back then as they spread rumor against Pakistan that one of our northern base was being used for the J-10s. Then an image of several new unmarked J-10s (allegedly for delivery to PAF) parked outside of the factory in similar timeline is a public knowledge.

So all those rumours spread and public knowledge of a simple Pakistani civilian were all pointing towards this fact. And I guess professional intelligence agencies would be far more well equipped and informed than an average Joe.

So that's why I ponder,why all this secrecy is for? Or more probably it's just a norm of our military to do the their thing ie acquisition announcement SOP. Which is really toxic and a bad news for us PDFers (PDF members)

 

[Abid123]

I always thought Chinese flankers are the best option for PN due their longer range.

They are the best option.

 

[The Terminator]

IMO rafale wont face off with J-10 or even F-16 in at least WVR counter. IAF won't risk it as simple. MKI is the work horse but it have failed. If another skrimish happens, IAF will keep MKI at front with sweep from M29 and M2k coupled with AWACS and all these in numbers so as to overwhelm PAF numbers. Rafale will only provide EW support with spectra and SOW capability from behind the main package.
Now unless PAF take a shot with aim-120 or PL-15, which they definitely will given they have signature confirmation. So PAF won't be facing rafales directly.

Do you think the IAF would have such complex thought process, while in reality, they sent a couple of Mig 21s alone to takedown the mix of a fully loaded package sent by PAF alongside all other support systems in place and effective. At least you could have expected their flankers to give some cover for the MiG21s to be a sane and logical decision. But just at that moment, the Indians realized for the 1st time that JF-17 isn't really a glorified packaged F-7 but a whole new beast in fact.

 

[The Terminator]

Ah, that's quite rich since I remember reading 15 years ago that the "Raptor of the East", MKI would decimate PAF and IAF would rule the skies within hours of the conflict starting. Funny how that turned out when the first punch landed.

"AMRAAM DODGERS" became an official tagline.

I'd stop projecting and maintain some dignity, if your ethos allows it

The massive IAF having way more deep pockets is even more complacent when it comes to operational and professional excellence. They love to play with big and expensive toys bit doesn't have any clue about how a modern cohesive network centric force do operate. They (IAF) were lagging in key EW,command and control, communications support systems back in the 2000s, so went for a shopping spree to acquire new AWACS platforms. And now ten years later,they still lacked in those critical systems and paid the price and again went for the shopping spree of new jamming resistant radio systems and another globally glorified jet. So the pattern continues.

I surely believe IAF will get a really unpleasant surprise again with their pants down just like it has traditionally been happened multiple times before.

 

[IblinI]

Streets say the J11D and J10D programs are both alive, it would be interesting if J10CP can upgrade to the D version in the future.

 

[SQ8]

@CriticalThought
What you posted in the other thread kept me thinking of what if I am wrong based on whatever limited information + knowledge I have.

So lets put it through the simulation: @Bilal Khan (Quwa) @JamD in case you are interested

A flight of 4 J-10Cs with PL-15s and a flight of 4 Rafale F3Rs with Meteors.
In total the J-10Cs carry 16 PL-15s and 8 PL-10s along with KG-300 ECM pods while the Rafale's 16 Meteors and 8 MICA EMs along with 8 MICA IRs as well(SPECTRA BUILT IN)
Max Range of PL-15 is simulated at 92nm while the Meteor is at 75nm.

Both located at 36000ft, facing each other and at 200nm out - same simulated skill level.
They both have access to their respective DLs and the side overall is capable of exploiting other sensors but no AEW in place.
This is a straight charge in with no collective offset tactics or approaches - pretty much medieval knights riding to meet each other with sensor/weapons performance what we are looking to see.

Now I cannot change what the programmers of this simulation consider their values for sensor and weapons parameters and I do feel they have assigned the radar range to the J-10C lower than what it is(closer to the JF-17 Block 3) but that is offset to an extent by the range of the PL-15.
Additionally, they also limited the J-10C to only being able to guide 1 PL-15 at a time when that is not the case in reality. It does however somewhat simulate the block-3 to an extent as well so the initial results can be taken analogous to that engagement too barring the block-3s slightly smaller RCS.
To make this engagement fair I limit the Rafale's to launch 1 weapon at each target as well.

Finally, I AM HANDS OFF - no interference.

Quick snapshot shows the detection/engagement range of the J-10(White circle at 75nm) and the weapons range in red.

The Rafale has a detection range of 140nm - so nearly twice that of the J-10C shown but then its stick is shorter.

Both flights proceed to engage keeping the same altitude and fairly same kinematics as well with the J-10C approaching the max weapons range

At exactly 74nm the J-10Cs launch their PL-15s at the Rafales who are in weapons range for the Meteor but dont launch yet.

Finally at 70NMs the Meteors are also launch and the Rafale's start to notch - the J-10Cs are still not notching!

The Meteors don't loft as much as the PL-15s but the Meteors are FASTER due to their Ramjet propulsion and get to their target FASTER!
They go active and the J-10s are finally defending.

All 4 J-10Cs are gone while the PL-15s are still in the air!

WHEN the PL-15s do arrive they hit 2 Rafale's while the others are able to dodge and get away - thus ended attempt 1 at the simulation.
Since it works as if a dice is rolled in terms of calculating everything from "pilot" responses to weapon impacts I ran it 3 more times.

#2 - J-10Cs all lost, 1 Rafale remains

#3 - J-10Cs 1 survives the first volley while 2 Rafale's survive. ONCE this J-10C survives and both flow Hot again, it launches at another Rafale to bring it down and survives a Meteor. It launches again at the second Rafale and brings it down as well.

#4. No J-10Cs survive and 1 Rafale Survives.

However, as I mentioned the issue lies with the simulated radar range for the J-10C and this result may reflect more the Block-3 rather than the J-10CPs.
so perhaps suited to the other thread but the JF-17 Block-3 isnt some antidote for the Rafale and probably more akin to a numbers equalizer to outstick the IAF.

But, I wasnt done so I manipulated the database and increased the range of the J-10Cs radar to 100nm and allowing them (and the Rafale's) to guide 2 missiles at a time.
Doing that changed the whole game entirely -

Now the J-10Cs werent only launching right at the edge of the PL-15s range but also able to notch more comfortably. The PL-15s would arrive and since they were 2 per target bring down all Rafale's
while the meteors where still 35nm away from the J-10Cs!
Even with their high speed at the weapon endgame the Meteors would at best bring down 2 J-10s in repeat after repeat of this scenario.

So - having done so I decided to put up all other assets of the PAF against the Rafale.

JF-17 Block-2 - 2 out of 4 times is unable to engage even and brought down by the Rafale - the other two tries brings down 1-2 Rafales

F-16AM with AIDEWS - Only in 1 engagement do they actually manage to evade the meteor and bring down 3 Rafales but still lose 3-4. Other cases it is 2-4 or 0-4 as well.

So, clearly the other assets of the PAF barring the JF-17 Block-3 and J-10C arent going to have it easy against the Rafale - sure, the chance of this simple straight in engagement are also nearly nil but it goes to simulate what a game changer the Rafale is for the IAF.

Why I state that is because I ran the simulation for other scenarios as well:

J-10C(100nm Radar) with /PL-15 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: Won 4 times and in all it was 0-4 losses
J-10C with /PL-15 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 Win 4 out of 4 times , MKI managed to bring down 1 J10C in 2 rounds.
J-10C with /PL-15 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - Win 4 out of 4 times , UPG managed to bring down 1 J10C in 1 round.
J-10C vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - Win 4 out of 4 times - No chance for Tejas they all went down for no loss to J-10C

JF-17 Block-3(simulated by J-10C with 75nm Radar) W/PL-15 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: 3 out of 4 times could not fire a single MICA and all went down
JF-17 Block-3 W/PL-15 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 - Win 3 out of 4 times-, MKI Won only 1 round after losing 2 of theirs.
JF-17 Block-3 W/PL-15 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - 2 win, 1 draw(shoot each other down) and 1 lost.
JF-17 Block-3 W/PL-15 vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - 4 times they all went down for no loss to Block-3

JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: Evenly matched on rounds- When they win it is 4-3, when they lose it is 2-4.
JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 - 4 rounds EVEN 2-2 with 1-2 JF-17 remaining
JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - 4 times it is an EVEN result with either 1 Mig-29 or JF-17 surviving - very surprising considering the MKI is a superior aircraft in paper specs.
JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - EVEN result with 2 of either aircraft remaining after winning.

F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: Won 3 out of 4.
F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 - 4 rounds EVEN 2-2 with 3-4 F-16 remaining .
F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - Win 3 out of 4 with 2-3 F-16s remaining in all wins.
F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - Won all 4 times - but nearly lost in one round with 1 F-16 remaining.

So, just my thoughts are that at this point the PAF does have the superior stick against most of IAF's fleet except the Rafale.
Stating again that this is a VERY SIMPLE scenario.

Unfortunately we do not have the Astra to simulate so cannot see what that will do to change the engagements.