Opinion: Turkey not a regional power.

[Gaara]

Turkiye has enough power to crush Assad's forces like cockroaches, within just 72 hours. There is no doubt for that. But the afterward that concerns us. Syrian issue is very complicated and Syria is a more possible swamp than Iraq. An operation without a strong international support might lead both Turkiye and the region directly go into a regional war between sects, that will last years.

Since getting a UN decision is not likely because of Russia, there are two options. First one is a NATO operation, that will be performed by at least Turkiye, France, Germany, UK an US. The other one is a regional operation, that will be performed by at least Turkiye, Egypt, KSA and Gulf countries. (Latter one is more likely because of US' and Europe's economic crissis and US' unwillingness to enter another conflict in ME) Both of the options need "pressing the button together", which means physical presence is required by all parties. And either of them fits us, since Russia will not dare to object to that kind of coalition, in sight at least.

 

[t_for_talli]

Turkey might take on the Assad forces easily .... but what after that???

No one wants a unstable region around its borders...........and in this case where instability is unavoidable Turkey is trying not to get its hand dirty and hence avoiding the after effects of outcome
Else Turkey will be facing similar problems as Pakistan in the Afghanistan bordering areas

Local snakes of ME have habits of biting their own masters { Al-Qaeda, Afghan Taliban }

 

[PapaDoc23]

I think the biggest reason why Turkey does not want to intervene is because they do not trust the FSA fully. They hear stories of foreign fighters entering Syria,they hear sectarian tensions,they hear radical wahhabi **** heads ruining the revolution. So they do not want to get involved into a sectarian mess. Turkey has a wait and see mentality. They will intervene if it looks like the rebellion is about to get crushed. However they see the rebels gaining momentum they will just arm them and see what happens. Also there is the question of what comes after Assad. there are reports that FSA militias have actually fought against radical extremist groups and ready to fight them after Assad falls. Then you have the situation in Lebanon. When Assad falls the sunni groups in Lebanon will turn their guns against Hezbollah.Not to mention that the PYD have autonomy in Syria. It is really messy and Turkey feels to just wait and see.

In my opinion Turkey is going to send troops into Syria one way or another. I believe Turkey should intervene now. Send in ground troops(75,000-95,000) as peacekeepers to take out Islamic extremist groups,prevent sectarian warfare,and train the FSA militias into a strong force to keep the peace and back upt the SNC transitional government. If not this will grind on for years. Then post Assad Syria will be like Lebanon in the 80s,Iraq in the 2000s times 10 because there is a toxic mix of foreign fighters,proxy warfare from the GCC and Iran,autonomous militias,sectarian militias and chemical weapons. Something must be done,if not we will look back in 15 years with regret how we could have saved Syria from being another Yugoslavia but did nothing. Turkey will be heavily involed in Post Assad Syria anyway. The radicals like Ahrar Al Sham,al Nusra Front,etc hate everything Turkey stands for. And they will turn their guns on to Turkey and the FSA when the war is over.

 

[atatwolf]

I think the biggest reason why Turkey does not want to intervene is because they do not trust the FSA fully. They hear stories of foreign fighters entering Syria,they hear sectarian tensions,they hear radical wahhabi **** heads ruining the revolution. So they do not want to get involved into a sectarian mess. Turkey has a wait and see mentality. They will intervene if it looks like the rebellion is about to get crushed. However they see the rebels gaining momentum they will just arm them and see what happens. Also there is the question of what comes after Assad. there are reports that FSA militias have actually fought against radical extremist groups and ready to fight them after Assad falls. Then you have the situation in Lebanon. When Assad falls the sunni groups in Lebanon will turn their guns against Hezbollah.Not to mention that the PYD have autonomy in Syria. It is really messy and Turkey feels to just wait and see.

In my opinion Turkey is going to send troops into Syria one way or another. I believe Turkey should intervene now. Send in ground troops(75,000-95,000) as peacekeepers to take out Islamic extremist groups,prevent sectarian warfare,and train the FSA militias into a strong force to keep the peace and back upt the SNC transitional government. If not this will grind on for years. Then post Assad Syria will be like Lebanon in the 80s,Iraq in the 2000s times 10 because there is a toxic mix of foreign fighters,proxy warfare from the GCC and Iran,autonomous militias,sectarian militias and chemical weapons. Something must be done,if not we will look back in 15 years with regret how we could have saved Syria from being another Yugoslavia but did nothing. Turkey will be heavily involed in Post Assad Syria anyway. The radicals like Ahrar Al Sham,al Nusra Front,etc hate everything Turkey stands for. And they will turn their guns on to Turkey and the FSA when the war is over.

I agree with the first part of your story. Syria is just too messy, if Turkey gets involved and gets its hand dirty, maybe at the end it will just play at the hands of extremist and Syria would not be manageable for them, or atleast the benefits would not weigh out the negatives. I don't think Turkey is going to send that large of troops into Syria, hell, Turkey doesn't even send 80 k troops into Iraq to whipe out PKK bases. In Syria, I think the most the Turks would do is set-up a bufferzone. That would give free Syrian army a launching pad into Syria. Secondly, Turkey could implement no fly zone with some allies. That is the most what they should do imho.

 

[Type 052D]

What the Arabs failed to consider is that Iran is watching SA and Qatar and may even deploy basjis or Al quds forces to Syria and make a toxic mix of secterian violence for NATO/OIC/GCC forces. Russia is watching Turks and most importantly China may buy Iranian oil instead of SA.

if I was China, I would encourage russia to deploy slava class distroyers and marines.

 

[mb444]

Turkey needs to be a regional power if not a global power. It is the only Muslim country with the ability to be so. To the best of my understanding turkey does not have any independence in terms of the nukes based there. Maybe someone can enlighten. Turkey once it's more of an economic powerhouse should throw of the shakels of NATO and be the standard bearer that can Muslim countries can rally behind.. It's a long shot I know as NATO gives turkey other advantages.... But the truth is nation of Muslims has no better candidate than turkey to lift us collectively up.

 

[Abii]

Let's end this thread

In the end, starting a war in Syria has ZERO economic advantage and comes with a list of problems. Best case scenario a bunch of al quida jihadists will take over Syria (best case). The more possible scenario is that if Assad falls, Syria will go through a period of civil war and it'll become AFG 2.0. Once the Russians left and the Afghan govt fell, we all saw what happened in that country. Either way, Turkey has a border with Syria and it'll have to live with the consequences. If you think you have a refugee problem now, wait till the Syrian govt falls. Millions will run towards Turkey, literally (like how 3-4 mln Afghans came to Iran after the Soviet war).

/thread

 

[Gaara]

What the Arabs failed to consider is that Iran is watching SA and Qatar and may even deploy basjis or Al quds forces to Syria and make a toxic mix of secterian violence for NATO/OIC/GCC forces. Russia is watching Turks and most importantly China may buy Iranian oil instead of SA.

if I was China, I would encourage russia to deploy slava class distroyers and marines.

Yeah, right. Like Russia would listen to China. They would do exactly opposite if China tells them to deploy their destroyers.

"Most importantly(!?) China may buy Iranian oil instead of SA" Is this the most important thing that prevents KSA from intervening Syria? Really? Like KSA is heavily(!) dependent to China on the oil sales. Here is a news for you: Both Iran and China are nothing in Syrian issue. They don't have any weight on this manner. Nobody listens to them and neither Iran nor China can not do anything to Turkiye, KSA or other Gulf states if they decide to go into Syria. They can do nothing! Do you understand me? Nothing!

Russia is the only one that must be bribed sufficiently to look the other way.

 

[Surenas]

Here is a news for you: Both Iran and China are nothing in Syrian issue. They don't have any weight on this manner.

Haha. Iran is the only reason Assad is still standing. It is the country with the most influence in Syria and it's neighbors like Lebanon and Iraq. Wtf are you talking about?

 

[Gaara]

Haha. Iran is the only reason Assad is still standing.

I know that. But you just don't undertstand what I mean. Iran is doing all it can to prevent Assad from falling. Turkiye hasn't started yet.

 

[tyrant]

Yeah, right. Like Russia would listen to China. They would do exactly opposite if China tells them to deploy their destroyers.

"Most importantly(!?) China may buy Iranian oil instead of SA" Is this the most important thing that prevents KSA from intervening Syria? Really? Like KSA is heavily(!) dependent to China on the oil sales. Here is a news for you: Both Iran and China are nothing in Syrian issue. They don't have any weight on this manner. Nobody listens to them and neither Iran nor China can not do anything to Turkiye, KSA or other Gulf states if they decide to go into Syria. They can do nothing! Do you understand me? Nothing!

Russia is the only one that must be bribed sufficiently to look the other way. And we are waiting US, a player in/above Russia's league, to take care of that issue after the elections.

Russia can not be bribed in this case (an exception).
The way Iran can hurt is recruiting the whole Iran/Iraq militia and more importantly:
*** Giving a huge amount of missiles to Syria to hit Turkish main military/industrial places. This is why ground forces are a must.
It should be finished as fast as possible before they can transfer and launch missiles.
As the final way, Iran will work on an independent Alawitte state.

 

[mb444]

Mark_t,

I think Syria is a Sunni majority country. Can others confirm.

 

[Surenas]

I know that. But you just don't undertstand what I mean. Iran is doing all it can to prevent Assad from falling. Turkiye hasn't started yet.

Iran isn't doing all it can. Iran and Syria have defence pact, and Iran could even justify deploying it's troops to Syria based on that pact.

 

[Gaara]

Either you don't know the foreign policy issues or you are just pretending to be a jingoist. Iran, Iraq and Syria are all Shia majority nation. All of these can wreck havoc in the Kingdom and Turkey. Turkey already has a big problem with the kurds. The kurds are just looking for an opportunity like this and they will definitely pounce on it especially so when backed by Iran. Iran is already known to give Israel nightmares in lebanon war through rockets. There is no popular support in Turkey for war. The US wont go for any war.

Now imagine rockets pounding Turkey city from across the border and Kurds also attacking some vital installations. The people of Turkey will immediately call for the army back to the barracks. And Bahrain and SA are already facing Shia revolutionist's in their countries. With the start of war, these guys will obviously make it a hell lot worse for these nations to be actively involved in war in the backdrop of civilians in these countries under attack by such groups. It ain't no easy road man !!!

Syria is not a shia majority nation.

Iran could even justify deploying it's troops to Syria based on that pact.

Excuse me if I don't take that sentence seriously.

 

[Gaara]

Russia can not be bribed in this case (an exception).
The way Iran can hurt is recruiting the whole Iran/Iraq militia and more importantly:
*** Giving a huge amount of missiles to Syria to hit Turkish main military/industrial places. This is why ground forces are a must.
It should be finished as fast as possible before they can transfer and launch missiles.
As the final way, Iran will work on an independent Alawitte state.

I don't think Russians support Assad because they love him. They just have benefits in this regimes. If international community can offer sufficient replacements to them, why not.