Operation Rah-e-Nijat (South Waziristan)

[vsdoc]

Thanks Taimi.

But if you read your own long post (which i appreciate in terms of the effort put in) you will see that a number of the questions you have raised have no logical answer UNLESS it is that the Taliban were gutless cowards who turned and fled at the first signs of organised assault.

Somehow I still have my reservations on that score, and while I defer to your superior local knowledge, I will still follow and wait and see.

Also to an extent I am aware of the ethnicity and language/custom issues of mutually exclusive tribes that do not share a lot of love for each other historically and have spilt blood for years as they hold on tightly to their domains.

Not very different from a fragmented land of warring tribes/principalities anywhere else in the world too. But history is also witness to the coming together of such disparate hostile entities either under a common banner or in the form of a mutually self-serving loose alliance against a common enemy, only to return back to their cosy domains when the enemy has been taken care of.

And this is I feel a serious reality in the present context, where a mobile force with a widened theater of operations and easy routes of egress in times of distress, clashes with a more cumbersome and less mobile traditional army where superior firepower counts for nothing once there is nothing much left to destroy, and superior numbers often translate just to higher kill rates sustained in carefully planned attacks on bunched targets as opposed to the nebulous enemy.

I remember an old post of S-2 and concur with it to an extent - i.e. the Taliban have gone underground, given up the gun (side-arms are de rigeur in that part of the world anyways apparently) for the time being, and will lie low and merge with the populance. However, where I veer away from his way of thinking is that this is not going to be any permamnent seeing the light abjurement of violence type change of heart and they will regroup, re-affiliate, and come back unless they are finished off right now.

And as correctly pointed out by you, like in any locally home grown and locally supported war, unless the PA has superb ground level intelligence/moles and the support of the local population, these guys are going to sift away like sand through your fingertips.

And I do not see that happening in these traditionally hostile blood-loyalty type tribal areas, rerwards, threats, or not.

Cheers, Doc

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Could just be a coincidence but this is exactly the scenario I was reading about with a lazy Sunday morning coffee yesterday ..... and I must admit that it made sense to me.

Winter is around the corner, and it is unlikely that the fighting will be done by then. These guys (TTP) have the option of not only melting/merging into the Afghan side, with NO one being the wiser, but now apparently there is also another serious possibility.

And herein lies the successful implementation of the Strategic Depth doctrine ..... by the pupil and not the master.

The TTP who have magically disappeared are likely going to ghost their way into Balochistan over the winter where ties are already being forged with the Baloch freedom fighters to regroup and re-open a new front once the Waziristan operation is done and dusted (though the more probable reality seems to be continuing low-level conflict with cross border incursions across what is always going to be a porous soft "border").

Herein lies Pakistan's biggest challenge ..... SWAT, FATA, NWFP, Waziristan, Balochistan ...... all with less-than-friendly Afghanistan (and here is where India will play a big role ..... the current lack of the 106 km long chicken neck notwithstanding) next door, and sandwiched by India waiting patiently on the East.

Someone said it right ..... The pakistan army is not trained for such a fight ..... no open plains, no tanks, no "MAD" nuke deterrent.

And most importantly ..... NO MOBILITY.

Add to that, no long-time US ally support anymore, no money, and encircled by hostile forces ..... both Hindu and Muslim.

Slowly but inexorably, Pakistan is running out of space to maneuver.

From here, India needs to carefully weigh its options and decide on where its best bet lies ..... on a balkanized Pakistan at its doorstep ..... or a chastened one which has been forced violently to look within for the first time in its 62 year history ..... and find and forge an identity for itself which is truly Pakistani as opposed to simply reactionary Anti-Indian.

Cheers, Doc

The Baluch nationalists have no love lost for the Pashtun, whom they see as demographic competitors, and even less love for the Taliban, whom they see as being encouraged by the Pakistani establishment to settle into Baluchistan to counter the Baluch groups. There is already strong opposition to the refugees from Afghanistan settled in Baluchistan, that may have shifted the demographic balance in favor of the Pashtun.

The goals and ideology of the Baluch separatists and the Taliban are also vastly different - while there may be similarities in some of the medieval traditions practiced by both sets of groups (the burying alive of five women by Baluch sardars for example), the Baluch nationalists are waging a largely 'secular' war, based not on 'Islamic ideology', but secular political goals of independence/autonomy.

The Taliban goal is of course one entirely rooted in religious dogma, and it leaves no room for an independent or sovereign Baluchistan - their stated goal is one of spreading their ideology across Pakistan and turning it into a 'true Islamic State'. Secular Baluch groups, or any separatist group for that matter, have no role to play in such a Taliban State.

There will therefore be no 'linkup' between the Baluch and the Taliban in Baluchistan, and the Taliban themselves will find it hard to merely 'relocate' to Baluchistan en masse, given the reasons already mentioned by TK.

Thanks Taimi.

But if you read your own long post (which i appreciate in terms of the effort put in) you will see that a number of the questions you have raised have no logical answer UNLESS it is that the Taliban were gutless cowards who turned and fled at the first signs of organised assault.

Somehow I still have my reservations on that score, and while I defer to your superior local knowledge, I will still follow and wait and see.

Also to an extent I am aware of the ethnicity and language/custom issues of mutually exclusive tribes that do not share a lot of love for each other historically and have spilt blood for years as they hold on tightly to their domains.

Not very different from a fragmented land of warring tribes/principalities anywhere else in the world too. But history is also witness to the coming together of such disparate hostile entities either under a common banner or in the form of a mutually self-serving loose alliance against a common enemy, only to return back to their cosy domains when the enemy has been taken care of.

And this is I feel a serious reality in the present context, where a mobile force with a widened theater of operations and easy routes of egress in times of distress, clashes with a more cumbersome and less mobile traditional army where superior firepower counts for nothing once there is nothing much left to destroy, and superior numbers often translate just to higher kill rates sustained in carefully planned attacks on bunched targets as opposed to the nebulous enemy.

I remember an old post of S-2 and concur with it to an extent - i.e. the Taliban have gone underground, given up the gun (side-arms are de rigeur in that part of the world anyways apparently) for the time being, and will lie low and merge with the populance. However, where I veer away from his way of thinking is that this is not going to be any permamnent seeing the light abjurement of violence type change of heart and they will regroup, re-affiliate, and come back unless they are finished off right now.

And as correctly pointed out by you, like in any locally home grown and locally supported war, unless the PA has superb ground level intelligence/moles and the support of the local population, these guys are going to sift away like sand through your fingertips.

And I do not see that happening in these traditionally hostile blood-loyalty type tribal areas, rerwards, threats, or not.

Cheers, Doc

You have to remember that the locals do not necessarily wholeheartedly support the Taliban. One of the things the Taliban did was to destroy the traditional tribal structure, killing the respected Tribal elders, imposing their doctrine on the locals and extorting from businesses and locals in various ways to finance their operations.

They maintained support through force and fear, and it is therefore not as grassroots an insurgency as you make it out to be, and therefore not very conducive to argument you are trying to make based on possible analogies with other insurgencies that do have extensive grassroots support.

The war will not be over once the PA consolidates its positions, I imagine the PA will take greater casualties as it moves further into the smaller villages and hamlets, but it would also be incorrect to argue that the Taliban have not suffered significant setbacks because of being routed out of their strongholds in SW.

In the long run victory will be dependent upon whether the GoP can deliver after the Army has cleared the region, and offer political and economic solutions. It will be judged by, as S-2 once said, 'how long it has been since the last suicide bombing occurred'.

Swat, in terms of a dramatic reduction in the frequency of terrorist attacks, is so far a huge success. Whether that will be sustained or replicated in SW only time will tell.

 

[Metallic]

Militant attacks leave six Pakistan troops dead
PAKISTAN - 9 NOVEMBER 2009

PESHAWAR, Pakistan – Militant attacks killed six troops in Pakistan's tribal belt, where soldiers backed by warplanes and helicopter gunships are pressing a major anti-Taliban offensive, officials said Monday.

The first attack, late Sunday, left four soldiers dead in Makin, one of the battlefields where ground troops are pressing an operation against the homegrown Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) network into a fourth week.

Military officials said initially that the soldiers died in an improvised explosive device (IED) attack -- of the type deployed by the Taliban to such deadly effect against US and NATO troops across the border in Afghanistan.

But the army press office later issued a statement saying militants fired rockets at a security checkpost, killing the four soldiers and wounding one other. Eight militants were killed, the statement said.

Further to the north in the lawless tribal belt, where US officials say Al-Qaeda are plotting attacks on the West, a roadside bomb killed two paramilitary soldiers in Bajaur district, officials said.

The soldiers were travelling at the time in a vehicle to take up duty at the strategic Mullahsaid Top checkpoint, 40 kilometres (25 miles) northeast of Khar, the main town of Bajaur.

"Two soldiers were killed and one injured in an IED attack," tribal administration official Abdul Hameed Khan told AFP.

Paramilitary and intelligence officials confirmed Monday's incident and toll.

Officials say the Taliban have stepped up attacks in Bajaur to deflect attention away from South Waziristan, where around 30,000 Pakistani troops are pressing their most ambitious offensive to date against the TTP.

Makin is one of the most notorious Taliban-held towns in South Waziristan and close to where former TTP chief Baitullah Mehsud had a house, which the military said Friday had been demolished.

A US missile attack killed Mehsud on August 5 in South Waziristan, part of the border area with Afghanistan that Washington calls the most dangerous place in the world because of an abundance of Al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters.

The military says around 480 militants and 46 soldiers have been killed since the offensive began, but security officials and analysts say that many Islamist rebels have simply fled rather than staying to fight.

The military provides the only regular information coming from the frontlines. None of the details can be verified because communication lines are down and journalists and aid workers barred from the area.


Source: AFP

 

[PakShaheen79]

Could just be a coincidence but this is exactly the scenario I was reading about with a lazy Sunday morning coffee yesterday ..... and I must admit that it made sense to me.

Winter is around the corner, and it is unlikely that the fighting will be done by then. These guys (TTP) have the option of not only melting/merging into the Afghan side, with NO one being the wiser, but now apparently there is also another serious possibility.

And herein lies the successful implementation of the Strategic Depth doctrine ..... by the pupil and not the master.

The TTP who have magically disappeared are likely going to ghost their way into Balochistan over the winter where ties are already being forged with the Baloch freedom fighters to regroup and re-open a new front once the Waziristan operation is done and dusted (though the more probable reality seems to be continuing low-level conflict with cross border incursions across what is always going to be a porous soft "border").

Herein lies Pakistan's biggest challenge ..... SWAT, FATA, NWFP, Waziristan, Balochistan ...... all with less-than-friendly Afghanistan (and here is where India will play a big role ..... the current lack of the 106 km long chicken neck notwithstanding) next door, and sandwiched by India waiting patiently on the East.

Someone said it right ..... The pakistan army is not trained for such a fight ..... no open plains, no tanks, no "MAD" nuke deterrent.

And most importantly ..... NO MOBILITY.

Add to that, no long-time US ally support anymore, no money, and encircled by hostile forces ..... both Hindu and Muslim.

Slowly but inexorably, Pakistan is running out of space to maneuver.

From here, India needs to carefully weigh its options and decide on where its best bet lies ..... on a balkanized Pakistan at its doorstep ..... or a chastened one which has been forced violently to look within for the first time in its 62 year history ..... and find and forge an identity for itself which is truly Pakistani as opposed to simply reactionary Anti-Indian.

Cheers, Doc

Have you applied for a script writer in bollywood? If not please don't waste your time because you have got some unthinkable imagination powers. This is only thing i can suggest to you after reading above post of your's.

 

[Barrett]

Some friends have been comparing the current situation with various events in history. We must understand the Objective/goal of any movement/struggle before getting into the details of its modus operandi.

The ideology TTP follows and the justification they give for their attacks is the support of Pakistani Government for US & NATO forces in Afghanistan. These attacks are directed towards local population of Pakistan and not the American & NATO assets in the Country, in recent times we haven’t seen attacks on their supply lines or their personnel. You kill someone for supporting your enemy but not kill the enemy itself, Strange!

If TTP is towing the same line as the Afghan Talibans, we should see suicide bombings in schools, mosques, bazaars of Afghanistan killing innocent citizens of its own country but that’s not the case because the objective seems to be different. Mullah Omar and Gul badin Hikmatyar disowned Baithullah Mehsood and Naik Mohammed.

If it’s not the Afghan Talibans supporting the TTP who is? Where is the huge cache of arms coming from? Clearly the nexus we all know about.
A natural Alliance of common enemy.

The scale of damage TTP has inflicted upon Pakistan would have been substantial against the NATO forces in Afghanistan.
Hence the objective of TTP is to destabilize Pakistan, Kill its civilians and cripple the state apparatus, putting a big question mark to the safety of its nuclear arsenal.

A covert War fought very overtly.

 

[vsdoc]

The ideology TTP follows and the justification they give for their attacks is the support of Pakistani Government for US & NATO forces in Afghanistan. These attacks are directed towards local population of Pakistan and not the American & NATO assets in the Country, in recent times we haven’t seen attacks on their supply lines or their personnel. You kill someone for supporting your enemy but not kill the enemy itself, Strange!

The ideology / justification pointed out by you above has more to it than meets the eye my friend ..... and its really not very difficult for the world at large to read between the lines, Pakistani conspiracy theories notwithstanding.

Unfortunately seeing the scope and size of your indigenous movie industry, you'd be hungrier than a church mouse were you to go the scriptwriter route, as suggested by pakshaheen for me.

I fail to see what is so mysterious or difficult to understand in the above for you?

Simply put, an enemy is an enemy, and one respects and gives him his due for his standing by his hatred for you ..... what you see is what you get ..... full frontal.

On the other hand, the hand that fed you, now raised to strike you, in an "ideological" flip-flop of convenience, especially when the hand is purportedly your own flesh and blood ..... now there is the genesis for true hatred.

If the Taliban spoke Hindi .... dushman kahin nahin ja raha hai, usko baad mein dekh lenge. Pahle apne gaddaron ko khatm karo.

(For S-2 and others who do not know Hindi .... "The nemy is not going anywhere and can wait .... we will get to them later. First things first ..... let us finish off the traitors within.")

Regardless of protests to the contrary by Pakistanis here, THAT is how the WORLD sees it.

Cheers, Doc

 

[iPhone]

^naa dude, that's just your thinking, don't drag the world into it.

 

[fatman17]

Taliban were gutless cowards who turned and fled at the first signs of organised assault.

correct - remember the US assault in 01 and how these cowards fled afghanistan without a fight - ditto here - no difference!

Somehow I still have my reservations on that score, and while I defer to your superior local knowledge, I will still follow and wait and see.

fair enough! - remember Deter, Deny and.......DEFEAT!

 

[courageneverdies]

Rawalpindi - November 9, 2009:

South Waziristan - Operation Rah-e-Nijat. ​

In last 24 hours, 8 terrorists have been killed while security forces losses are 4 soldiers embraced shahadat and 1 injured. Details of operations are as follows:-

a. On Jandola – Sararogha Axis.

Security forces consolidated and strengthened their positions around Jandola-Sararogha axis.

b. On Shakai – Kaniguram Axis.

Security forces conducted search and clearance operation at Bangal Khel, Totai Langar Khel and Kanigurm and demolished terrorist commander Mumtaz Burki’s hideout.

c. On Razmak- Makeen Axis

(1) Security forces cleared Tauda China Khola and established check post near Makeen.

(2) Terrorists fired rockets at security forces check post at Makeen, resultantly 4 soldiers embraced shahadat and 1 got injured. While 8 terrorists were killed.

3. Relief Activities

a. 9,343 Cash Cards have issued to displaced families of Waziristan.

b. Army Field Hospital has treated over 4,845 patients at Dera Ismail Khan.

---

KIT Over n Out

 

[Barrett]

The ideology / justification pointed out by you above has more to it than meets the eye my friend ..... and its really not very difficult for the world at large to read between the lines, Pakistani conspiracy theories notwithstanding.

Unfortunately seeing the scope and size of your indigenous movie industry, you'd be hungrier than a church mouse were you to go the scriptwriter route, as suggested by pakshaheen for me.

I fail to see what is so mysterious or difficult to understand in the above for you?

Simply put, an enemy is an enemy, and one respects and gives him his due for his standing by his hatred for you ..... what you see is what you get ..... full frontal.

On the other hand, the hand that fed you, now raised to strike you, in an "ideological" flip-flop of convenience, especially when the hand is purportedly your own flesh and blood ..... now there is the genesis for true hatred.

If the Taliban spoke Hindi .... dushman kahin nahin ja raha hai, usko baad mein dekh lenge. Pahle apne gaddaron ko khatm karo.

(For S-2 and others who do not know Hindi .... "The nemy is not going anywhere and can wait .... we will get to them later. First things first ..... let us finish off the traitors within.")

Regardless of protests to the contrary by Pakistanis here, THAT is how the WORLD sees it.

Cheers, Doc

The most difficult thing to do is to make an ignorant person understand the complexities of war.

As your (indians) world revolves around only and only bollywood so we see your comparisons in the same context.

I have never read anything form you, justified with facts or even logic, but your own wishes that you try to portray as reality, which is far from the situation on ground.

I completely disagree with Pakshaheen for his suggestions about a script writer, you don't stand a chance even for that, you should seriously consider pursuing a career as a comedian.

 

[Barrett]

GEO Pakistan
Afghan Taliban commander expresses disassociation with TTP

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Afghan Taliban commander expresses disassociation with TTP KABUL: Afghan Taliban commander Abdul Mannan alias Mullah Toor has expressed disassociation with Tahreek-e-Taliban Pakistan(TTP) and said Afghan Taliban have no connection with outlawed Tahreek-e-Taliban.

In an interview, Mullah Toor said targeting innocent people in suicide attacks and blasts is wrong. Al Qaeda has no influence on Tahreek-e-Taliban and Afghan Taliban target only Americans and Nato forces.

http://www.geo.tv/11-10-2009/52687.htm

 

[waraich66]

Task to completely flush Al Qaeda and TTP will be much easier if Afghan talaban and GOP/PA start helping each other but ISAF cammanders should also distance them self from Indian intelligence and other extremist organisation ie RSS in Afghanistan, better kick them out from Afghanistan

 

[air marshal]

9 terrorists killed in security forces’ operation in Waziristan: ISPR

PESHAWAR Nov 10 (APP): As many as nine terrorists have been killed and another terrorist was apprehended during operation Rah-e-Rast in last 24 hours in South Waziristan Agency, an ISPR statement here Tuesday said. On Jandola-Sararogha Axis, security forces secured Tsappara and adjoining ridges and during search and clearance operations at Sarai Ghundaka, Kandao, Spinkai and Zariwam are under progress.

On Shakai-Kaniguram Axis, security forces cleared area north of Ladha and found a private jail near Bangel Khel and destroyed number of caves, bunkers, towers and observation posts of the terrorists in the area. During search operation in area north of Ladha, a group of terrorists was engaged and five terrorists were killed.

On Razmak-Makeen Axis, area domination, clearance and consolidation of positions is under way on Razmak-Makeen axis. Security forces carried out house to house search at Tauda China Khula and Fort Knoll and recovered huge cache of arms and ammunition. One terrorist has been apprehended while 4 terrorists were killed.

In Swat, Malakand Operation Rah-e-Rast, nine terrorists voluntarily surrendered to security forces at Maindam, Lakhar and Kabbal. Security forces conducted search operation at Roria, Shalpin and apprehended four terrorists.

About relief activities, as many as 9,924 cash cards have been issued to displaced families of Waziristan. Army Field Hospital has treated over 6,020 patients at Dera Ismail Khan, Wanna and Shakai.

 

[courageneverdies]

Rawalpindi - November 10, 2009:

South Waziristan - Operation Rah-e-Nijat.

In last 24 hours, 9 terrorists have been killed and 1 terrorist was apprehended. Details of operations are as follows:-

a. On Jandola – Sararogha Axis.

Security forces secured Tsappara and adjoining ridges. Search and clearance operations at Sarai Ghundaka, Kandao, Spinkai and Zariwam are under progress.

b. On Shakai – Kaniguram Axis.

(1) Security forces cleared area north of Ladha and found a private jail near Bangel Khel and destroyed number of caves, bunkers, towers and observation posts of the terrorists in the area.

(2) During search operation in area north of Ladha, a group of terrorists was engaged, as a result 5 terrorists were killed.

c. On Razmak- Makeen Axis

(1) Area domination, clearance and consolidation of positions is under way on Razmak-Makeen axis.

(2) Security forces carried out house to house search at Tauda China Khula and Fort Knoll and recovered huge cache of arms and ammunition. 1 terrorist has been apprehended while 4 terrorists were killed.

3. Relief Activities

a. 9,924 Cash Cards have issued to displaced families of Waziristan.

b. Army Field Hospital has treated over 6,020 patients at Dera Ismail Khan, Wanna and Shakai.

---

KIT Over n Out

 

[vsdoc]

The most difficult thing to do is to make an ignorant person understand the complexities of war.

As your (indians) world revolves around only and only bollywood so we see your comparisons in the same context.

I have never read anything form you, justified with facts or even logic, but your own wishes that you try to portray as reality, which is far from the situation on ground.

I completely disagree with Pakshaheen for his suggestions about a script writer, you don't stand a chance even for that, you should seriously consider pursuing a career as a comedian.

Jee hazoor.