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Operation Rah-e-Nijat (South Waziristan)

Pakistan: Tracking the Offensive in South Waziristan
October 19, 2009 | 2224 GMT

AAMIR QURESHI/AFP/Getty Images
Pakistani soldiers search civilians displaced by the Waziristan offensive on Oct. 19Summary
Pakistan began its highly anticipated, three-pronged ground offensive in South Waziristan Oct. 17. However, the military has only begun to enter Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan’s stronghold, and despite the fact that the military has been preparing for this offensive since June, considerable challenges remain. The military will not address the entire spectrum of militancy in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas in one fell swoop but will instead address it one step at a time. Its first objective is to establish a foothold in the area from which it can project power in future operations.

Analysis
The Pakistani army began Oct. 17 its much anticipated ground offensive, dubbed Operation Rah-e-Nijat (Path to Salvation), deploying 28,000-30,000 soldiers who are advancing into the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan’s (TTP) strongholds along three axes toward Makeen, Jandola and Tiraza. The deployment and direction of the offensives focus on an area of approximately 400 square miles (South Waziristan is roughly 2,550 square miles total) that is the stronghold of the TTP, led by Hakeemullah Mehsud. Some 10,000-15,000 militants are believed to be residing in the region, along with another 1,500 foreign fighters (mostly from Uzbekistan).

The mission is specific and is hardly an assault on the entire militant network in South Waziristan; the military is focusing on this area to strike a blow against the TTP on its own turf and to establish a base to use in its effort to gain control over the surrounding areas.

Additionally, the military is negotiating deals with two influential militant commanders: Maulvi Nazir and Hafiz Gul Bahadir, who control North Waziristan and western South Waziristan, respectively. Without even their limited support, military operations in this region would be dramatically more complicated because Nazir and Gul Bahadir control large amounts of territory.

The TTP has a tight zone of influence in South Waziristan, but it has also alienated some of the local population through its repressive tactics. Nearly 100,000 locals left the area prior to the operation, reducing the militants’ ability to hide among civilians. The Uzbek fighters are perceived less as ideologically motivated warriors and more as common criminals capitalizing on their alliance with the TTP. The military is seeking to capitalize on this negative sentiment and move into the area controlled by Mehsud in order to impose law and order — which the population desperately wants. Compared to the Swat Valley offensive in May, where the military had much stronger local support to flush out militants, the offensive in South Waziristan will be difficult because the locals are much more wary of the military’s actions and are not confident that the military will end up winning the conflict outright. This high level of uncertainty going into the offensive thus detracts from the military’s ability to convince the local warlords and tribal leaders to give information on TTP hideouts.

Historically, Islamabad’s refusal to dedicate conventional forces in the FATA since a failed mission in 2005 has created problems; however, Islamabad knows why it failed in the past and has not spent the last five months preparing to fail again.

Since June, the Pakistani military has been using airstrikes to soften up targets and engaging in negotiations with tribal leaders (such as Nazir and Gul Bahadir) to win their support. Initial pushes into TTP territory have been successful, but the contact has been with peripheral TTP outposts that would be expected to fall easily, and the action so far should not be considered indicative of resistance throughout the whole campaign. Indeed, due to the high amount of publicity surrounding this operation, the militants have also had plenty of time to prepare. As troops advance, the TTP will resort to using more guerilla-style tactics in order to evade artillery and airstrikes. If the militants stand and fight, the military will overwhelm them with conventional tactics. Therefore, it is likely that militants will retreat and disperse from concerted military efforts, so the follow-on measures to secure the population and make the area inhospitable for militants will be as crucial as the initial offensive.

A major problem for the military is that it does not have good intelligence on the exact locations of the TTP’s and Uzbek leadership in South Waziristan; rumors indicate that TTP leaders Mehsud and Wali ur Rehman have escaped northwest into North Waziristan — an area controlled by Gul Bahadir (also where many foreign fighters like Yahya al-Libi are reportedly located). Pakistan’s air force is pursuing these fleeing militants and launching airstrikes in North Waziristan as well as bombing anti-aircraft artillery emplacements controlled by the TTP and its allies.

In order to carry out its mission in this kind of environment, the military must work with local warlords and increase their level of cooperation. The two actors involved in this area who can be portrayed as somewhat neutral are Nazir and Gul Bahadir. These militant leaders are not as ideologically motivated as Mehsud and instead are motivated by lucrative criminal activities. This means that they are easier for the government to negotiate with, but their cooperation is fickle. For example, Nazir and Gul Bahadir allegedly have agreed not to confront the military if it enters their territory, but they will continue to allow militants (like Mehsud and Rehman) to flee — similar to what happened during the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan. For Pakistan, neutrality is the first step — Nazir and Gul Bahadir have far too many alliances and interests in the region to be expected to completely switch sides so quickly. They are waiting to see how Operation Rah-e-Nijat pans out before they commit further.

The other actor in all of this is the United States. U.S. Central Command chief Gen. David Petraeus and Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. general in Afghanistan, are in Pakistan during the initial phases of the operation, underlining U.S. support for the operation. South and North Waziristan have been the site of numerous suspected strikes by U.S. unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) recently against both al Qaeda and TTP high-value targets. Petraeus and McChrystal have a much wider militant target set than the Pakistanis and would like to see Pakistan extend the offensive to critical al Qaeda strongholds along Waziristan’s border with Afghanistan. To heighten the success of this operation, the United States would like a hand in pursuing fleeing militants with UAV strikes. However, as recent history has illustrated, this is a politically explosive commitment for Islamabad to make, particularly if it runs even a remote chance of having Pakistani military forces caught in the crossfire. It is not yet clear how restrained the United States will be when it has the potential to hit key leadership targets, or how coordinated those efforts may be with Pakistani operations.

STRATFOR will continue to monitor the Pakistani offensive in South Waziristan and continue posting updates of the situation as the military attempts to overthrow a militant stronghold and establish a foothold in the area.
 
All TTP main leadership already escaped from battle ground its mean battle is over , to capture the villages was not prime objective of PA also to keep these Mountain areas under control will be difficult task for PA , TTP can again regroup and attack by using Gurrilla tactics .

Also Nazir and Gul bhadar supporting TTP that is reason they provide TTP
escape route
 
All TTP main leadership already escaped from battle ground its mean battle is over , to capture the villages was not prime objective of PA also to keep these Mountain areas under control will be difficult task for PA , TTP can again regroup and attack by using Gurrilla tactics .

Also Nazir and Gul bhadar supporting TTP that is reason they provide TTP
escape route

how do u know that - for all we know they may be on orakzai !
 
US pleased with Pakistan’s advances in South Waziristan

WASHINGTON, Nov 18 (APP): As Pakistan made fresh gains in its anti militant drive in South Waziristan, the United States said it is pleased with success of the operation, taking place along Pak Afghan border region considered critical to security efforts in both countries.

State Department Spokesman Ian Kelly also reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to back the ally with economic and security assistance.

“We’ve been very supportive of their offensive in South Waziristan and supportive of their efforts to deal with the problem of the violent extremists in the region,” Kelly stated when asked to comment on Pakistan’s capture of some strategic towns including Sararogha, which until recently were feared as Taliban strongholds.

The Obama administration says Pakistan’s anti Taliban achievements in Swat in the summer and South Waziristan currently have boosted its confidence in the country’s ability to rout the militants.

At the briefing, Kelly indicated the growing confidence in the Pakistani government by renewing the administration’s commitment to economic and security support for the South Asian nation.

“We have a robust partnership with Pakistan, an aid package that is supportive of their economic development efforts, but also of their û some of their security efforts.”
 
6 more terrorists killed, 8 soldiers including 2 officers injured in Rah-e-Nijat

ISLAMABAD, Nov 18 (APP): Six more terrorists were killed while 8 soldiers including 2 officers injured during the on-going operation Rah-e-Nijat in South Waziristan Agency. As per an update for the last 24 hours issued by ISPR here on Wednesday, the security forces are consolidating their position in the area.

On Jandola - Sararogha Axis, security forces established link up short of Janata and point 1694 while sanitization was carried out at village Adire Mela and village Khazhankai. During the process huge quantity of Arms and Ammunition including 12.7 mm gun were recovered.
Security forces carried out patrolling on route Jandola - Chagmalai - Siplatoi, during patrolling an IED exploded, resultantly 3 soldiers were injured including an officer.

On Shakai - Kaniguram Axis, terrorists fired with small arms on security forces at Kidney Ridge near Kund Mela, resultantly 5 soldiers including an officer were injured while 6 terrorists were killed.

On Razmak- Makeen Axis, security forces carried out search operation at Lita Sar and village Blanki Sar and destroyed 8 bunkers while during search of village China large quantity of Arms and Ammunition was recovered.

In Operation Rah-e-Rast being undertaken in Swat and Malakand security forces apprehended four suspects from Kalam and Manglor while 4 others voluntarily surrendered themselves to security forces at Charbagh.

In all 12, 469 Cash Cards have been issued to displaced families of Waziristan.
 
Taliban declare guerrilla war against Pakistan army

MIRANSHAH, Pakistan — The Taliban have hit back at Pakistan claims of success in a major offensive, vowing on Wednesday that their guerrilla war would expel troops from their stronghold near the Afghan border.

"We have not been defeated. We have voluntarily withdrawn into the mountains under a strategy that will trap the Pakistan army in the area," Taliban spokesman Azam Tariq told journalists taken by blindfold to a mountain top.

Pakistan's main umbrella Taliban faction, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) arranged a news conference for journalists from the tribal belt a day after the military flew correspondents into South Waziristan to visit the battlefield.

The army told reporters that troops waging a major ground and air offensive for five weeks had captured most towns once under rebel control in South Waziristan, part of Pakistan's militant-infested tribal belt.

An AFP reporter, who was among those taken to the undefined mountain top, said Tariq sat on the open ground, without a rug or chairs.

Bearded Tariq, who is spokesman for TTP chief Hakimullah Mehsud, was flanked by two armed bodyguards. This was his first direct interaction with journalists since the military mounted a major offensive on October 17.

Journalists from North Waziristan were driven to the border of neighbouring South Waziristan in broad daylight where they were blindfolded and transferred into waiting vehicles, said the AFP reporter.

They were then taken several kilometres into the rugged terrain where some 30,000 Pakistan troops backed by fighter aircraft and attack helicopters were engaged in their heaviest to date anti-Taliban offensive.

Gunfire could be heard from the mountains while one military helicopter was also seen flying in the area.

"Look -- the firing is in Nawazkot of Makin town. But this is a futile exercise, the army will never succeed in seizing control of the area," Tariq said pointing to the helicopter.

"The army claims they have captured most of the towns. This is wrong, in fact we have vacated old forts which we captured from them in previous clashes. The troops are trapped there and we will retake the area," he added.
AFP: Taliban declare guerrilla war against Pakistan army
 
I think i'm starting to feel that the Talibs may have a point, they're safe and sound, bragging and chirping.

The army oughta get em. At any cost.
 
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I think i'm starting to feel that the Talibs may have a point, they're safe and sound bragging and chirping.

The army oughta get em. At any cost.

Didn't we heard same views from the Swat Taliban before military went on with Op Rah e Rast ??

His point of view is right for the time being, but military authorities are saying repeatedly that this is not the end of the operation that they capture main roads, villages & towns. Once they secure these areas, get back the population in, let civil admn kick start, PA will span out and start going into the small villages and mountains located inside the triangle of operation. The interview being done in NWA or at the border area of NWA/SWA clearly illustrates that they have run away and taking shelter in areas where there is no army.

Even yesterday DG ISPR said that now troops will start moving to the jungles and other important areas, the fact that PA so swiftly moved in and achieved objectives before the target time given gives them a perfect opportunity to move before the snow comes to areas which the militants were hoping would be secure as snow will come by the time PA achieves their objectives. They are on the run and giving them maximum damage before snow comes in and they try to regroup would be an additional bonus for PA. Even in snow PA has good capability to move and engage them.

Its just the start, same used to be talked about Swat Operation in the start, but see what situation is there now and how their leadership got either killed or captured or are on the run.
 
Didn't we heard same views from the Swat Taliban before military went on with Op Rah e Rast ??

His point of view is right for the time being, but military authorities are saying repeatedly that this is not the end of the operation that they capture main roads, villages & towns. Once they secure these areas, get back the population in, let civil admn kick start, PA will span out and start going into the small villages and mountains located inside the triangle of operation. The interview being done in NWA or at the border area of NWA/SWA clearly illustrates that they have run away and taking shelter in areas where there is no army.

Even yesterday DG ISPR said that now troops will start moving to the jungles and other important areas, the fact that PA so swiftly moved in and achieved objectives before the target time given gives them a perfect opportunity to move before the snow comes to areas which the militants were hoping would be secure as snow will come by the time PA achieves their objectives. They are on the run and giving them maximum damage before snow comes in and they try to regroup would be an additional bonus for PA. Even in snow PA has good capability to move and engage them.

Its just the start, same used to be talked about Swat Operation in the start, but see what situation is there now and how their leadership got either killed or captured or are on the run.

Double thanks to you sir, for this enlightening response.
May your words hold true.

Thanks!:pakistan:
 
we should use our drones more to monitor the border....a few km inside Afghanistan would also be good to see advances towards our side.

its not like ISAF can, or is in position to raise protest about us invading Afghan airspace
 
we should use our drones more to monitor the border....a few km inside Afghanistan would also be good to see advances towards our side.

its not like ISAF can, or is in position to raise protest about us invading Afghan airspace

Not only to Afghanistan but surveillance must be increased to neighboring agencies particularly to Orakzai and Mohmand.
 
Army shell accidentally kills 6 Pakistan civilians
PAKISTAN - 18 NOVEMBER 2009

By HUSSAIN AFZAL

PARACHINAR, Pakistan – An army shell intended for a militant hide-out accidentally killed six civilians in northwestern Pakistan on Wednesday, police said.

Dozens of people dragged the bodies onto the main highway running through North West Frontier Province, blocking traffic to protest the killings.

The demonstrators chanted "stop the killing of innocent people" and "stop this cruelty," said Hashim Khan, a local resident who participated. The protest lasted about two hours and then dispersed peacefully, he said.

The dead included three women, two children and a man, said a local police official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media. The accident occurred in Shahukhel, a town in the Hangu district of the province, he said.

Hangu is close to two areas in Pakistan's semiautonomous tribal region where jet fighters also pounded militant hide-outs Wednesday killing 18 suspected fighters, said intelligence and political officials.

The attacks come as the Pakistani army is waging a major offensive in the South Waziristan tribal area near the Afghan border, where al-Qaida and Taliban leaders are believed to be hiding.

Officials believe many militants have fled South Waziristan, seeking refuge in other parts of the tribal region and elsewhere in Pakistan.

Jet fighters pounded two hide-outs used by militants loyal to Pakistani Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud in the Orakzai tribal area, killing 13 suspected fighters, said the officials.

Planes also attacked compounds in the Kurram tribal area, killing five militants who had fled South Waziristan, said the officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media.

Pakistan's army has pitted some 30,000 troops against up to 8,000 militants in South Waziristan, including many Uzbeks and other foreign insurgents who have long taken refuge in the lawless tribal areas.

Commanders say Pakistani troops have retaken most population centers, roads and strategic high ground in the region but that insurgents remain in parts of the countryside.

The most recent fighting in South Waziristan killed six militants and injured eight soldiers, the army said in a statement Wednesday.

The information is impossible to verify independently since Pakistan has blocked access to the battle zone.


Source: Associated Press
 
Let the resources come online, InshAllah that will also be done.

The reason for Falco UAV local production is to have large number of UAVs with max cost saving and with ability to service these UAVs ourselves.
 
We have not been defeated. We have voluntarily withdrawn into the mountains under a strategy that will trap the Pakistan army in the area," Taliban spokesman Azam Tariq told journalists taken by blindfold to a mountain top.

Really? :blink: Well i suggest you remain in those mountains holes until the army comes, because if you do come out now you will be sent straight to hell.

Most of the towns are under our control now - MashAllah, now army is planning to move into mountains & jungle areas. Watch out you fu**ers, F-16s are gona bomb the hell out of you, our armed forces will stick the artillery right up in your ar** hole. Then we'll see who will claim the victory.

The awaam has no sympathy for you, army has no intention whatsoever to entertain you, your time has come and your colleagues are waiting for you in HELL.

Many of these bastards will soon be sent to hell, InshAllah and the one who will get caught will be sent to prison with a bullet shoved up in their ar**. :angry:
 
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