N & S Waziristan Taliban Groups Join Forces

[TruthSeeker]

North and South Waziristan Taliban Groups Form Alliance

By Bill Roggio, February 21, 2009, The Long War Journal
North and South Waziristan Taliban groups form alliance - The Long War Journal

Two major Pakistani Taliban groups based in Waziristan that have feuded in the past have put aside differences and formed an alliance.

The North Waziristan faction, led by Hafiz Gul Bahadar, and the South Waziristan faction, led by Mullah Nazir, have agreed to put an end to a local feud with Baitullah Mehsud, the overall leader of the Pakistani Taliban. The three groups have joined forces to prevent outside enemies from dividing the Taliban, the BBC reported.

The three leaders met at an undisclosed location in the Waziristan region. The Taliban warlords agreed to form a 13-man shura, or council. Leadership of the shura would rotate and Baitullah, Nazir, and Bahadar will all sit on the council.

It is unclear if Nazir and Bahadar will join Baitullah Tehrik-e-Taliban, or the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan. Baitullah's group, which operates in all of the tribal areas and throughout the Northwest Frontier Province, has defeated the Pakistani military in multiple battles, forcing the government to cut peace agreements.

The move to unite the Waziristan factions comes as the Taliban achieved its greatest victory yet by humiliating government forces in Swat and forcing the state to cede a vast region in the Northwest Frontier Province. Mullah Fazlullah, the second in command of the Tehrik-e-Taliban, has led the fighting in Swat.

The prior rivalry between Baitullah on one side and Nazir and Bahadar on the other led to small scale clashes between the groups. Last summer, Nazir and Bahadar formed an alliance to resist Baitullah's expansion in the tribal areas.

Aside from tribal rivalries and disputes over land, the two sides disagreed over the issue of fighting the Pakistani state. Baitullah aims to conquer territory by fighting the military, while Nazir and Bahadar want to focus efforts across the border in Afghanistan. This led some analysts to improperly label the two "pro-government Taliban."

The new alliance will strengthen the Taliban throughout the tribal areas. The differences prevented the groups from pooling their forces to battle Pakistani government forces during past engagements in the Waziristan region.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Roggio has a set template in all of his articles "Taliban have decisively beaten the Pakistan Army", with variations such as, "the Taliban have decisively beaten the PA in multiple battles", and "the PA have lost decisively to the Taliban repeatedly".

Click on template and insert anywhere in the article.

But that nitpicking aside, a worrying development if it results in the three joining forces against the PA.

 

[ajpirzada]

that is y drone attacks are counter productive. those whose relatives got killed will also join these talibans and attack both US led nato in afghanistan and our army in Pakistan

 

[fatman17]

Roggio has a set template in all of his articles "Taliban have decisively beaten the Pakistan Army", with variations such as, "the Taliban have decisively beaten the PA in multiple battles", and "the PA have lost decisively to the Taliban repeatedly".

Click on template and insert anywhere in the article.

But that nitpicking aside, a worrying development if it results in the three joining forces against the PA.[/QUOTE]

this is the new and final battleground - all the hardened militants including criminals are gathered here - i would support the use of drones in this area - win this, you win FATA!

 

[S-2]

"...all the hardened militants including criminals are gathered here - i would support the use of drones in this area - win this, you win FATA!"

If you truly believe that then your army must go to the Waziristans and give battle. There lies your enemy.

PREDATOR can never replace boots on the ground in these communities.

This agreement should be seen in one light only. Bahadar and Nazir have licked their index fingers and stuck them into the breeze to see which way the wind's blowing.

They have their answer from SWAT.

 

[RedBaron]

this is the new and final battleground - all the hardened militants including criminals are gathered here - i would support the use of drones in this area - win this, you win FATA!

But are drones, however effective they maybe, enough? These guys probably number 5000, if not more? And they're all well entrenched and now apparently have a unified command and control structure. PA being a conventional army will face a Herculean task operating against such a powerful enemy in a terrain that they are not used to operating in...but I guess failure is not an option, else FATA becomes TATA.

 

[fatman17]

"...all the hardened militants including criminals are gathered here - i would support the use of drones in this area - win this, you win FATA!"

If you truly believe that then your army must go to the Waziristans and give battle. There lies your enemy.

PREDATOR can never replace boots on the ground in these communities.

This agreement should be seen in one light only. Bahadar and Nazir have licked their index fingers and stuck them into the breeze to see which way the wind's blowing.

They have their answer from SWAT.

SWAT is different from the other districts - the army will have to move into the Waziristan's. there is no other choice.

 

[DarkStar]

Could this proposed alliance (hope it doesn't come true) be actually a result of the militants' desperation at the government's successful policy in Swat.

It seems that the militants were cheesed off with especially Sufi Mohammad and his son in law's agreement with the government, and decided to bury their differences, or they would have to commit to a ceasefire and disarmamanent themselves.

I believe the swat peace deal has sent the militants scrambling, because if the same happens in FATA, they'll be out of a job.

 

[Ratus Ratus]

a worrying development if it results in the three joining forces against the PA

They will and they have a prize to look forward to. The example was defined in Swat. It is a case of the intent not the locality. Swat showed a possible outcome. Something that gives a safe area that is in essence theirs. This is in many ways a conventional war because it is about territory.

"...all the hardened militants including criminals are gathered here - i would support the use of drones in this area - win this, you win FATA!"

If you truly believe that then your army must go to the Waziristans and give battle. There lies your enemy.

You have 2 problems:
1. N & S Waziristan is the major AO. It is their turf.
2. The PA in itself must be ready for this and it is going to be a hard CI conflict. The problem is the PA is not yet ready for a CI battle. Also add to that the FC are not up to scratch for this yet either.

But are drones, however effective they maybe, enough?

If you rely completely on UAVs you have admitted you have lost. This will be a fierce war waged only with the full intent and aggression of CI. Forget anything else.
Loose this and you may start to think of handing over the whole FATA area and then more.

I believe the swat peace deal has sent the militants scrambling, because if the same happens in FATA, they'll be out of a job.

No it shown territorial gain is possible.


ON a side note, neither the PA or the FC are ready for a hard straight CI war. The PA is well doctrined for a conventional war with India. The FC is not fully or properly equipped.
Many here have made snide comments re the US helping by training Pakistan Instructors in the doctrine of CI so these Pakistan instructors can train the FC.
There is a thread here that is worse in comments on the lines of Australia providing CI instruction
These would be the best 2 nations world wide, to provide quality training in the area of CI and you need it yesterday.

Bluntly it is time the GoP got moving instead of trying to make the soft option.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

No it shown territorial gain is possible.

I think it is premature to make that determination. It may very well turn out, given precedent, that the GoP will not demand any significant concessions from the militants, such as a disbanding of the militia's and respect for the writ of the State, but the negotiations are still ongoing and only when we see the final agreement can we make a judgment on whether this new 'deal' is a loss or victory for the GoP.

If the GoP is able to squeeze out major concessions from the militants, then I do not think Swat will be a poor template to follow in FATA. Shariah is not the problem here, as I have said repeatedly (though it is no the optimal solution either), the issue is the extent of concessions the GoP makes, and enforcement of the writ of the State post 'deal'.

I agree with your point on the PA and FC not being ready. The scale of the training program remains small, and I was glad to see that the GoP accepted the Australian offer this time, unlike a few months ago when it was rebuffed.

According to the IG FC Gen. Tariq Khan's testimony to the Senate, Pakistan spent a paltry 30 million USD out of a budgeted 100 million USD or so in equipping and training the FC. Adm. Mullen's comments woudl seem to indicate that even that small amount has resulted in significant improvements in the FC capacity, so I am hopeful that a full fledged program, properly funded and with expanded training resources, will deliver the necessary results.

 

[fatman17]

Could this proposed alliance (hope it doesn't come true) be actually a result of the militants' desperation at the government's successful policy in Swat.

It seems that the militants were cheesed off with especially Sufi Mohammad and his son in law's agreement with the government, and decided to bury their differences, or they would have to commit to a ceasefire and disarmamanent themselves.

I believe the swat peace deal has sent the militants scrambling, because if the same happens in FATA, they'll be out of a job.[/QUOTE]

this could be so but where will they go! they dont know anything except killing!

 

[Ratus Ratus]

AgNoStIc MuSliM:
I truly love you optimism in this.
My comments re Swat have nothing to do with Shariah as such. It is more to do with the outcomes short and long term. I have not seen it written but Shariah must cohabitate with national law as well. Different argument not for here.

I sincerely hope the GoP does not let you down.

 

[S-2]

So what's the story in SWAT? Is there an agreement with the guy who matters there-Mullah Faizullah? If so, what are the terms? I'd understood disarming as a government proviso as we entered this. I'd also understood that the government, as a matter of policy, would only negotiate with elements who'd disarmed?

That's changed, no?

Still, final terms in SWAT? Seems al Jazerra had footage of a town with plenty of TTS gunmen running around and very happy-armed.

I'll look forward to somebody's reply there. A.M. suggests that this isn't finalized at all. I've seen nothing of these Faizullah-Mohammad discussions other than an "agreement" has been reached between the two. Does Mohammad now have authority to speak for the government and act as it's agent?

RATUS RATUS:

Your response to my encouraging the P.A. to give battle-

"You have 2 problems:
1. N & S Waziristan is the major AO. It is their turf.
2. The PA in itself must be ready for this and it is going to be a hard CI conflict. The problem is the PA is not yet ready for a CI battle. Also add to that the FC are not up to scratch for this yet either."

#1- I fully concur. It is the center of gravity to this operation and terrain does matter. To that extent the battle will likely, should it come, be a major mid-intensity conflict. The enemy is well-armed, numerous, has the sympathy of much of the community, likely with many prepared battle positions on all the key terrain ala' Bajaur.

#2- A VERY HARD C.I. conflict, likely unrecognizable as COIN in the initial phases. Likely no pre-determined time to those phases either. Don't go to the next until you've successfully completed the first.

My argument to counter your suggestion that the PA is not yet ready for the fight.

Yes, they are if the PA is everything that I've been told here. First, "perfect" is the enemy of "good enough". I can say that so long as the PA's professionalism is reflected in a disciplined, well-drilled army that understands at the fire-team through company level the essential tenets of good infantry operations anywhere by any army. If they are confident in their weapons, small-unit battle doctrine, and unit leaders, they can begin to take the battle to their enemy and build their own "battle-book" of experiences.

Of course, there are armies with more battle and COIN experience which have practical skills and equipment upon which to enhance operations. These should be leveraged at every turn, particularly where there's no cost to the PA.

The U.S. Army which entered SVN in 1965 was a thoroughly professional, post- W.W.II equipped armed force with a superb Air Force supporting it. Our failure in SVN didn't stem from our inability to adapt and learn at the local level-squads, platoons, companies, and battalions all quickly began to assimilate the "lessons-learned" at their levels.

Collation of those experiences by higher command was slower to react. Training spun from those experiences too then. Still, even that caught up to a decent training base (offset to some extent by the decline in soldier material as the effects of the draft began to show). Where we suffered most was at our highest echelons of command. There, commanders with a perspective honed in W.W.II and Korea, didn't show the mental agility of their NVA counterparts. We were defeated strategically though winners tactically and operationally.

Our army as a war-fighting organization was better for the experiences derived even if the nation and the army as a cultural institution wasn't.

If the PA is a well-drilled, professional army, then it's ready NOW to go downrange. Sadly, it isn't and here's why-tactics and weapons handling skills aren't the question (I hope. If so then basic professionalism may be questioned). Those are excuses given the urgency to become engaged and the degree of erosion already to the state's writ.

The real issue here is the morale and determination to close with the enemy. This army is uniformly-from the lowest to highest rank-unprepared MENTALLY to wage aggressive combat operations on it's national soil against these militants. In point of fact, many within are unsure that they ARE the enemy.

Tough to affix bayonets, close, and remorselessly kill with cold steel your "so-called" neighbor. Not for me with neighbors like these but I don't control the narrative. Others do.

You can spend money and train until the cows come home but sooner or later you gotta go gitterdun'.

This is a war of survival. Pakistan is being challenged and defined for the first time here. Pakistan will determine if it's existance is based upon more than some borders and capital now. Easy to hate the Indians but a nation really comes to terms with it's identity during civil war.

Caustic as hell but Pakistan's nat'l identity will be established once finished.

Long way of saying that I'd like to see the P.A. get started in Waziristan like, as you said, yesterday. Doubt they will for reasons that have nothing to do with soldiering.

 

[roadrunner]

In peacetime, these two tribes would normally be fighting each other.

 

[Ratus Ratus]

Long way of saying that I'd like to see the P.A. get started in Waziristan like, as you said, yesterday. Doubt they will for reasons that have nothing to do with soldiering.

My basic comment to you on this is simple:
FIO WAF NDJ ZHB CVO LJY
LKY CCB ZBM GQY HNH YOG
DWE KKU OZW GSN OQE NIN
GLY VBB GDC IOB HUC GLT
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AEQ HWR CLT DDM CCM DNM
XFW QDY BKN KOM THT IXW
BAI OUT NDJ FTJ OIS KOL
YNS BYH NFF ZVO URX GZZ
YYO UQC SWK ZBM XGE DZG
GSN WAF HER XPR HXR GDC
DTZ SOL YHG KRK KAX HUC
IRK CLT HCV OTG OQE KWN
THM DNM RAV TXF YJY YUC
PWM XYD NLL THT MFI FSY
GQY UFC BMC DWE NDJ FFJ
ZBM QOE GSN DHO KKU GDC
YMD SGA FIO SNA NNR HUC
MDG NKR KKT TMC CLT GWN
PNE DNM GLY YFT THT SCA
GOI WQP NDJ EEE HPT DGU
ZBM UDC OIS RNM YNS DMM
ZAZ UQC ZAN VBB GSN WOK
HWR GDC PMY IFT YHG FKZ
HUC CMH QDY CCM SKB KLA
OTG HYS CLT BKN JPR UNB
ZNS OJD KAX RAV KOL KOM
EAU KVR GAQ DNM BEZ THT
QUV BAI NDJ DDM NDD ZBM
UFC JYX BPW NYN KWN DVJ
TXF GSN VPP DWE GZZ VKC
TBB GDC YYO VNN GQY NFF
SNA XPR DMM ZAP HUC CVO
QWI CLT SDN OIS ZAN WAF
KKU QWA KOZ QVJ DYU DNM
HKM KAQ YNS FQH AHG GLY
FMC GLT THT SOL OQE NDJ
HCV OUT ZBM VBB FIO JPF
UQC GSN HXR AEQ GPS YHG
GDC HNH KAX ZVO YOG SQG
KWN HUC YTI SGA YCC TXF
CLT UNK DTZ QJI TUA YUC
DWE OIS KST PNE DNM UCD
THT YNS HWR XOX NDJ GWN
YFT ZBM GOI CCM GSN KLA
PMY EEE GDC BZS HPT YPV
HUC QSJ CLT QDY DNM OTG
KOM SKB DDM WOK RAV NDD
THT CCB UQC BAI BKN NIN
NDJ HDD BHI ZBM VYX BFI
UAU KDH GSN BEX KZN KOL
GLT HDW
In this we may agree.