Military Simulation - The Indo-Pak conflict - A hyperbole

[VkdIndian]

@SQ8 thanks for running the simulation again. However, it raised one more question.
There isn’t any UAV losses from Indian side. Is it because they don’t have any or some other reason? If they also employ UAVs for jamming, SEAD and DEAD their could be more twist to the tale.

 

[Titanium100]

This is all dandy and sweet but to far fatched..

War is unpredictable and it comes down to the cunningness of the generals specifically at this stage where there is parity and where the parity will be continued for decades to come..

If the last remnants of the Indians are holding out in Tamil Nadu we will be there dugging it out with them until there is one winner left

 

[SQ8]

@SQ8 thanks for running the simulation again. However, it raised one more question.
There isn’t any UAV losses from Indian side. Is it because they don’t have any or some other reason? If they also employ UAVs for jamming, SEAD and DEAD their could be more twist to the tale.

I havent given them any assuming this is a Pakistani side push - I am curious as to doing the same but from an Indian perspective.

What assets does India have to use here? - I am only aware of the Searcher IIs

 

[HRK]

2x Hermes 900 UAV [Star]

thing as far I know Hermes 900 is not with IA army or airforce as of now, secondly if it is included then plz also mention in which role it was performing with IAF/IA

 

[SQ8]

thing as far I know Hermes 900 is not with IA army or airforce as of now, secondly if it is included then plz also mention in which role it was performing with IAF/IA

Corrected - Using them to simulate ANKA EW

 

[Titanium100]

I havent given them any assuming this is a Pakistani side push

More like American perspective

 

[VkdIndian]

What assets does India have to use here? - I am only aware of the Searcher IIs

Google search brought out these links - https://www.indiastrategic.in/topstories1369_Unmanned_Aerial_Vehicle.htm

Heron, Searcher, Sea Guardian, SWITCH — the many UAVs that make up India's drone arsenal

UAVs are not just meant for long range surveillance but also for carrying out precision strikes. ThePrint gives you a roundup of the various drones in India's unmanned aerial squadrons.

theprint.in

These links talk of Harop and Harpy which are anti-radiation as well as targeting drones.
MQ9b are already on lease and more likely to be inducted. Don’t know how effective they would be in the scenario painted by you.

If Harop/Harpy are what is claimed about them, then it could prove to be a significant asset that an adversary can’t ignore.

 

[SQ8]

Google search brought out these links - https://www.indiastrategic.in/topstories1369_Unmanned_Aerial_Vehicle.htm

Heron, Searcher, Sea Guardian, SWITCH — the many UAVs that make up India's drone arsenal

UAVs are not just meant for long range surveillance but also for carrying out precision strikes. ThePrint gives you a roundup of the various drones in India's unmanned aerial squadrons.

theprint.in

These links talk of Harop and Harpy which are anti-radiation as well as targeting drones.
MQ9b are already on lease and more likely to be inducted. Don’t know how effective they would be in the scenario painted by you.

If Harop/Harpy are what is claimed about them, then it could prove to be a significant asset that an adversary can’t ignore.

Lets flip it around and make it an Indian surprise focused on destroying Pakistani AD before launching a combined Brahmos/ Air Strike.

 

[VkdIndian]

Lets flip it around and make it an Indian surprise focused on destroying Pakistani AD before launching a combined Brahmos/ Air Strike.

It would definitely give a new and different perspective.

There is one more possibility though. It is possible that it all starts with a little skirmish and escalate over a period of time wherein both the sides are fully ready. All the guards are up. Assets are deployed. This can lead to dispersing of forces making the task difficult for the opposing side. Surveillance would have gone up giving both sides a better look at latest deployments. Radars even mobile ones can’t remain hidden due to thier very nature of making radar noise giving away their positions. But mobile weapon systems based on passive guidance may be a different ball game.

If the situation flares up now -
- HQ9/S400 are likely to be the most sought after targets for both. Both countries are likely to deploy significant efforts to neutralise these. Surveillance would have given the exact location of these to both the sides.
- All the airfields would be major targets. Successful attack on weapon storage and fuel storage at military airfields were always the primary focus.
- Air and ground launched Brahmos could give a significant edge to IAF. Aircraft launching these wouldn’t need to come closer than 200-250 Km from the border giving them relative safety.
- Surface launched Brahmos can be launched from mobile launchers hard to detect and neutralise. Even their missiles also may have been moved out of weapon storage areas which would have been the first few targets in a pre-emotive scenario.

These simulations do have AI built into them but are these factored in? I don’t know.

Thanks @SQ8.

 

[SQ8]

It would give it a new and different perspective. Thanks.

Where would you place a second S-400 battery assuming the one I placed at Adampur actually turns out to be the location?

 

[PurpleButcher]

These are the topics for which I became a member of pdf!

 

[VkdIndian]

Where would you place a second S-400 battery assuming the one I placed at Adampur actually turns out to be the location?

Adampur one gives a good cover to areas around and behind it. Ideally there should be an overlap between two adjacent batteries. That too not considering max range of 400 kms. 150kms south of Adampur sounds ok to me. But that would mean all the systems would be consumed on the western border, which leaves East and north vulnerable to China.
Considering that it is a mobile system, a broad consideration of two S400 in general area of Punjab and Haryana might work for the scenario. Exact location may not mean much.
For simulation 1battery 150km south of Adampur and 1 in Gujrat can be tried.

 

[m52k85]

Updating Scenario with the following tweaks -
Indian Side will not engage at will any and all PAF forces once the border has been breached instead of waiting for Pakistan to engage.
Given 2 additional Scrambles with 4 MKIs and 4 Mig-29UPGs - in total from last scenario Indians had 8 aircraft on CAP vs 6 and are able to launch 10 interceptors to 6 previously
HQ-9 Battery near Gujranwala reduced to 4 TELs

F-16 CAP will move to medium altitude. The UAVs fly in at fairly low level but as suggested by @VkdIndian they are picked up by Indian radars eventually - first by the Netra AEW and also by the PSM(or spoon rest) near Rajauri at an elevation.

Result:
The Jammers are still fairly effective but the F-16 Flight does get hit by the S-400, However, a larger percentage of UAVs include those intended to attack the Brhamos on the Move are taken out by the Indian CAPs.
The initial wave of Indian CAPs also inflicts damage on PAF fixed wing assets but is taken out by a mix of HQ-9 and PL-12/PL-15 from escorting fighters.

The PAF is able to launch stand off weapons' and hit the bunkers but the S-400 makes it out with some damage.
However, the PAF flights are mauled by Indian interceptors on their way out and take a lot of losses even as they fight back and HQ-9 after a 15 minute reload is able to provide enough cover to bring a lot of IAF down too.
Someone still takes out the Netra and I cannot figure out who.

The HQ-9 makes a big difference and really has the airspace hostile for Indian aircraft out of Adampur and Halwara - IAF aircraft do fairly well in BVR A2A combat against PAF fighters especially as they are retreating. The majority of IAF losses were to the HQ-9.


View attachment 808252


LOSSES:
-------------------------------
SIDE: India
===========================================================
1x EMB-145I AEWC
2x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison]
3x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A
1x Radar (PSM-33 Mk2)
3x Rafale C
3x SA-3b Goa Quad Rail [Cargo]
3x SA-7a Grail [9K32 Strela-2] MANPADS [Cargo]
2x Su-30MKI Flanker H
2x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H
6x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H
1x Vehicle (Flat Face B [P-19]) [Cargo]
3x SA-21a/b Growler TEL [Cargo]


SIDE: Pakistan
===========================================================

LOSSES:
-------------------------------
3x Anka-I ELINT Mod
3x F-16AM Falcon MLU
1x F-16BM Falcon MLU
1x Falco UAV
2x ANKA EW
3x J-10C Vigorous Dragon
3x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2
1x Mirage 5F [ROSE II/III]
2x Wing Loong [Pterodactyl] II UCAV

Thanks! Could you possibly upload a video, since doing a long post (like the first Brahmos Gamit) I assume is time consuming. No need to add text commentary to the video as well, since we are requesting so many scenarios from you.

In the video, if you can just keep hovering with your mouse on the place where the action is taking place, that should give us enough understanding as to how it plays out.

 

[JamD]

@SQ8 In the plethora of requests here's one more. I'd be quite happy with a 3 sentence description of the results from you.

I want to know how a purely UCAV attack would fare. I'm thinking that PA (independent of PAF) decides to take a target out and launches CH4B and burraq. Maybe 2 CH4B (EW) and 6 Burraqs (x2 Barq). Does this even work at all or is it just swatted out of the sky like bugs?

And then roughly the same scenario with the roles reversed between India and Pakistan.

I'm wondering about this specifically because huge joint operations take a lot of coordination. Maybe PA going at it alone is a more realistic scenario depicting how PA will use UCAVs

 

[Reichsmarschall]

Thanks! Could you possibly upload a video, since doing a long post (like the first Brahmos Gamit) I assume is time consuming. No need to add text commentary to the video as well, since we are requesting so many scenarios from you.

In the video, if you can just keep hovering with your mouse on the place where the action is taking place, that should give us enough understanding as to how it plays out.

Actually i quite enjoy his commentary. It helps us layman to better understand the whole situation