Military Simulation - The Indo-Pak conflict - A hyperbole

[untitled]

Lets flip it around and make it an Indian surprise focused on destroying Pakistani AD before launching a combined Brahmos/ Air Strike

An attack on Karachi port and surrounding air bases would be interesting. As we have been told our Northern flank is relatively secure

 

[m52k85]

Actually i quite enjoy his commentary. It helps us layman to better understand the whole situation

Yes I agree, but we can only ask him to put so much time into it.

 

[PanzerKiel]

Updating Scenario with the following tweaks -
Indian Side will not engage at will any and all PAF forces once the border has been breached instead of waiting for Pakistan to engage.
Given 2 additional Scrambles with 4 MKIs and 4 Mig-29UPGs - in total from last scenario Indians had 8 aircraft on CAP vs 6 and are able to launch 10 interceptors to 6 previously
HQ-9 Battery near Gujranwala reduced to 4 TELs

F-16 CAP will move to medium altitude. The UAVs fly in at fairly low level but as suggested by @VkdIndian they are picked up by Indian radars eventually - first by the Netra AEW and also by the PSM(or spoon rest) near Rajauri at an elevation.

Result:
The Jammers are still fairly effective but the F-16 Flight does get hit by the S-400, However, a larger percentage of UAVs include those intended to attack the Brhamos on the Move are taken out by the Indian CAPs.
The initial wave of Indian CAPs also inflicts damage on PAF fixed wing assets but is taken out by a mix of HQ-9 and PL-12/PL-15 from escorting fighters.

The PAF is able to launch stand off weapons' and hit the bunkers but the S-400 makes it out with some damage.
However, the PAF flights are mauled by Indian interceptors on their way out and take a lot of losses even as they fight back and HQ-9 after a 15 minute reload is able to provide enough cover to bring a lot of IAF down too.
Someone still takes out the Netra and I cannot figure out who.

The HQ-9 makes a big difference and really has the airspace hostile for Indian aircraft out of Adampur and Halwara - IAF aircraft do fairly well in BVR A2A combat against PAF fighters especially as they are retreating. The majority of IAF losses were to the HQ-9.


View attachment 808252


LOSSES:
-------------------------------
SIDE: India
===========================================================
1x EMB-145I AEWC
2x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison]
3x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A
1x Radar (PSM-33 Mk2)
3x Rafale C
3x SA-3b Goa Quad Rail [Cargo]
3x SA-7a Grail [9K32 Strela-2] MANPADS [Cargo]
2x Su-30MKI Flanker H
2x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H
6x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H
1x Vehicle (Flat Face B [P-19]) [Cargo]
3x SA-21a/b Growler TEL [Cargo]


SIDE: Pakistan
===========================================================

LOSSES:
-------------------------------
3x Anka-I ELINT Mod
3x F-16AM Falcon MLU
1x F-16BM Falcon MLU
1x Falco UAV
2x ANKA EW
3x J-10C Vigorous Dragon
3x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2
1x Mirage 5F [ROSE II/III]
2x Wing Loong [Pterodactyl] II UCAV

Some food for thought....
..throughout this whole simulation, the big assets....HQ-9 and S400 remain in being....if by chance (i mean indirect approach) HQ-9 or S-400 gets neutralized or disabled, the big advantage other side will have is for everyone to see. You remove either one of them from the equation....then it could get a one-sided match....just one asset, located at one precise location, waiting for....

 

[m52k85]

Updating Scenario with the following tweaks -
Indian Side will not engage at will any and all PAF forces once the border has been breached instead of waiting for Pakistan to engage.
Given 2 additional Scrambles with 4 MKIs and 4 Mig-29UPGs - in total from last scenario Indians had 8 aircraft on CAP vs 6 and are able to launch 10 interceptors to 6 previously
HQ-9 Battery near Gujranwala reduced to 4 TELs

F-16 CAP will move to medium altitude. The UAVs fly in at fairly low level but as suggested by @VkdIndian they are picked up by Indian radars eventually - first by the Netra AEW and also by the PSM(or spoon rest) near Rajauri at an elevation.

Result:
The Jammers are still fairly effective but the F-16 Flight does get hit by the S-400, However, a larger percentage of UAVs include those intended to attack the Brhamos on the Move are taken out by the Indian CAPs.
The initial wave of Indian CAPs also inflicts damage on PAF fixed wing assets but is taken out by a mix of HQ-9 and PL-12/PL-15 from escorting fighters.

The PAF is able to launch stand off weapons' and hit the bunkers but the S-400 makes it out with some damage.
However, the PAF flights are mauled by Indian interceptors on their way out and take a lot of losses even as they fight back and HQ-9 after a 15 minute reload is able to provide enough cover to bring a lot of IAF down too.
Someone still takes out the Netra and I cannot figure out who.

The HQ-9 makes a big difference and really has the airspace hostile for Indian aircraft out of Adampur and Halwara - IAF aircraft do fairly well in BVR A2A combat against PAF fighters especially as they are retreating. The majority of IAF losses were to the HQ-9.


View attachment 808252


LOSSES:
-------------------------------
SIDE: India
===========================================================
1x EMB-145I AEWC
2x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison]
3x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A
1x Radar (PSM-33 Mk2)
3x Rafale C
3x SA-3b Goa Quad Rail [Cargo]
3x SA-7a Grail [9K32 Strela-2] MANPADS [Cargo]
2x Su-30MKI Flanker H
2x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H
6x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H
1x Vehicle (Flat Face B [P-19]) [Cargo]
3x SA-21a/b Growler TEL [Cargo]


SIDE: Pakistan
===========================================================

LOSSES:
-------------------------------
3x Anka-I ELINT Mod
3x F-16AM Falcon MLU
1x F-16BM Falcon MLU
1x Falco UAV
2x ANKA EW
3x J-10C Vigorous Dragon
3x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2
1x Mirage 5F [ROSE II/III]
2x Wing Loong [Pterodactyl] II UCAV

So, even though the IAF faced heavy losses (all initial CAPs and all subsequent interceptors), PAF faced significant losses (3 out of 6 J-10s, 3 out of 10 Blk-IIs and all F-16s 4 of 4), but importantly the primary objective was not met i.e. no Brahmos losses.

Hope, I summarized it right. (That video will help).

Edit: It seems the SEAD Jf-17s meant for Adampur mostly survived, did their ARMs not find the S-400 radars?

 

[Pak Nationalist]

We might be facing these

https://twitter.com/x/status/1481618641015930883

watch after 1:45. Are these the same drones or something new?

 

[SQ8]

So, even though the IAF faced heavy losses (all initial CAPs and all subsequent interceptors), PAF faced significant losses (3 out of 6 J-10s, 3 out of 10 Blk-IIs and all F-16s 4 of 4), but importantly the primary objective was not met i.e. no Brahmos losses.

Hope, I summarized it right. (That video will help).

Edit: It seems the SEAD Jf-17s meant for Adampur mostly survived, did their ARMs not find the S-400 radars?

The Brahmos storage facilities were hit but the UAV hunter killer teams were shot down before they could get to the Brahmos.
The SEAD JF-17s launched at inbound ADGE.

video is bit more of a headache due to uploading vs the snipping tool.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

Updating Scenario with the following tweaks -
Indian Side will not engage at will any and all PAF forces once the border has been breached instead of waiting for Pakistan to engage.
Given 2 additional Scrambles with 4 MKIs and 4 Mig-29UPGs - in total from last scenario Indians had 8 aircraft on CAP vs 6 and are able to launch 10 interceptors to 6 previously
HQ-9 Battery near Gujranwala reduced to 4 TELs

F-16 CAP will move to medium altitude. The UAVs fly in at fairly low level but as suggested by @VkdIndian they are picked up by Indian radars eventually - first by the Netra AEW and also by the PSM(or spoon rest) near Rajauri at an elevation.

Result:
The Jammers are still fairly effective but the F-16 Flight does get hit by the S-400, However, a larger percentage of UAVs include those intended to attack the Brhamos on the Move are taken out by the Indian CAPs.
The initial wave of Indian CAPs also inflicts damage on PAF fixed wing assets but is taken out by a mix of HQ-9 and PL-12/PL-15 from escorting fighters.

The PAF is able to launch stand off weapons' and hit the bunkers but the S-400 makes it out with some damage.
However, the PAF flights are mauled by Indian interceptors on their way out and take a lot of losses even as they fight back and HQ-9 after a 15 minute reload is able to provide enough cover to bring a lot of IAF down too.
Someone still takes out the Netra and I cannot figure out who.

The HQ-9 makes a big difference and really has the airspace hostile for Indian aircraft out of Adampur and Halwara - IAF aircraft do fairly well in BVR A2A combat against PAF fighters especially as they are retreating. The majority of IAF losses were to the HQ-9.


View attachment 808252


LOSSES:
-------------------------------
SIDE: India
===========================================================
1x EMB-145I AEWC
2x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison]
3x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A
1x Radar (PSM-33 Mk2)
3x Rafale C
3x SA-3b Goa Quad Rail [Cargo]
3x SA-7a Grail [9K32 Strela-2] MANPADS [Cargo]
2x Su-30MKI Flanker H
2x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H
6x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H
1x Vehicle (Flat Face B [P-19]) [Cargo]
3x SA-21a/b Growler TEL [Cargo]


SIDE: Pakistan
===========================================================

LOSSES:
-------------------------------
3x Anka-I ELINT Mod
3x F-16AM Falcon MLU
1x F-16BM Falcon MLU
1x Falco UAV
2x ANKA EW
3x J-10C Vigorous Dragon
3x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2
1x Mirage 5F [ROSE II/III]
2x Wing Loong [Pterodactyl] II UCAV

A question, did our strike package dispose of its payloads at the intended targets from stand-off ranges while staying in Pakistani airbases or apart from some UAVs did any assets violate the IB as well in this simulation? If it is the former, can the fire tracing radars be jammed at stand-off ranges? If the ROEs say that there would be no engagement until exchange from the Pakistani side is noticed, there is a possibility to capitalize on that by jamming the sensors that could trace delivery of payloads to minimize or completely eliminate the possibility of losses.

 

[SQ8]

A question, did our strike package dispose of its payloads at the intended targets from stand-off ranges while staying in Pakistani airbases or apart from some UAVs did any assets violate the IB as well in this simulation? If it is the former, can the fire tracing radars be jammed at stand-off ranges? If the ROEs say that there would be no engagement until exchange from the Pakistani side is noticed, there is a possibility to capitalize on that by jamming the sensors that could trace delivery of payloads to minimize or completely eliminate the possibility of losses.

This was a full on incursion - Adampur and Halwara are fairly inside India and Pakistan doesn’t possess any tactical standoff systems capable of getting that far. In addition, jamming assets need to close a certain distance before they can effectively deter the S-400 otherwise stand off systems will be shot down - A rafale shot down 2 H-4s using the meteor, stand off missiles do show up on radar.

 

[TsAr]

So, I don't think that we'd compare the actions of Feb 26th and 27th as a benchmark for any such future events. Both PAF and IAF seem to have worked out the kinks, in terms of understanding of the other and in terms of responses.

So both sides will be bringing different rabbits out of their hats when they face off again. What we 'can' anticipate in any such short and hot exchange in the future are cross-border BVR shots and SAM shots, I genuinely believe that this is where EW will set the stage before any kinetic action takes place.

The party that can dissuade or even resist the other, just enough in terms of EW, will be able to get more shots across and on target. It does not mean that nothing will fly, it does not mean that both sides will not take losses, but that capability degradation achieved via EW will be one of the first targets.

one thing more, events that occurred in Feb restraints was shown by PAF and IAF, but the forces were not on full throttle.

 

[kursed]

@SQ8 Can we change the PAF package to include CM400 and REKIII kits, automatically putting some distance between them and targets? They’re pretty much there to deter Brahmos attacks now. It feels like PAF is fighting with one hand tied behind its back, still trying on H4.

Also, why not include Fatah-1 to the mix?

 

[Pak Nationalist]

@SQ8 Can we change the PAF package to include CM400 and REKIII kits, automatically putting some distance between them and targets? They’re pretty much there to deter Brahmos attacks now. It feels like PAF is fighting with one hand tied behind its back, still trying on H4.

Also, why not include Fatah-1 to the mix?

And why not use Ra'ad in the simulation as well? The possibility that it could be perceived as nuclear-tipped?

On a side note, does Ra'ad also have terrain hugging features? It should ideally be a better platform for the neutralization of enemy air defenses given its ability to make alterations to its flight path, or would that be moot given the high velocity of an array of S-400 missiles?

 

[PanzerKiel]

@SQ8 Can we change the PAF package to include CM400 and REKIII kits, automatically putting some distance between them and targets? They’re pretty much there to deter Brahmos attacks now. It feels like PAF is fighting with one hand tied behind its back, still trying on H4.

Also, why not include Fatah-1 to the mix?

And why not use Ra'ad in the simulation as well? The possibility that it could be perceived as nuclear-tipped?

On a side note, does Ra'ad also have terrain hugging features? It should ideally be a better platform for the neutralization of enemy air defenses given its ability to make alterations to its flight path, or would that be moot given the high velocity of an array of S-400 missiles?

Why not @SQ8 run a full war scenario then. Instead of little tweaks, lets run a full-blown war scenario then. War was never this simple.

 

[kursed]

Why not @SQ8 run a full war scenario then. Instead of little tweaks, lets run a full-blown war scenario then. War was never this simple.

But aren't REK kits already being used, the difference between boosted and non-boosted versions is the distance they'd allow the JF-17 party without being targeted. OTOH, if the other side if employing Brahmos, why'd we keep back from using CM400?

 

[PanzerKiel]

But aren't REK kits already being used, the difference between boosted and non-boosted versions is the distance they'd allow the JF-17 party without being targeted. OTOH, if the other side if employing Brahmos, why'd we keep back from using CM400?

There were some other assets....if we talk about 27 Feb.....which were supposed to come into play on that day from both sides, but mostly Pak could play them while they were able to MOSTLY deny those to the Indians.....those assets might have played a greater role in the ultimate result (and i am not talking about simple assets like EW, Blinders etc).

Those, and now some additional, will again come into play from our side, while we will again seek to deny Indians the use of their assets......

A short incomplete example.....infiltrated SF teams which WERE in enemy area, suitable equipped and having the mission to deny SAR, BDA, post engagement assessment, some were there to exactly pinpoint once their SAR heli took to the air (real-time battle int), some had the mission to neutralize that specific SPYDER battery (we knew it was there) which ultimately (lucky for us...made us literally sweat at one moment, the same battery dried the sweat by doing a Blue on Blue ) took down one of their own heli instead of one of our aircrafts, some teams much deeper (Su-30 wreck etc), some were in overwatch mode in the area of that ammo dump which was bombed, their secondary mission being to ambush the convoy having HVTs which was bound to move out from that place after bombing (they actually did move the HVTs out in a convoy, could have been easily ambushed with both options of air and ground / fire, but we decided that enough had already been done).....

.......Our PAF danced as it wanted on that day, but there were much important assets on ground (humans and technical) which absolutely neutralized and ultimately sapped the will of indians.....these assets provided the carpet on which PAF danced, because they were spread like a carpet on that terrain...

Simulations are always useful, but my point is there are things which cannot be built into a simulation...... @SQ8 dear, nothing against you ofcourse, just wanted to point out something,

 

[PanzerKiel]

There were some other assets....if we talk about 27 Feb.....which were supposed to come into play on that day from both sides, but mostly Pak could play them while they were able to MOSTLY deny those to the Indians.....those assets might have played a greater role in the ultimate result (and i am not talking about simple assets like EW, Blinders etc).

Those, and now some additional, will again come into play from our side, while we will again seek to deny Indians the use of their assets......

A short incomplete example.....infiltrated SF teams which WERE in enemy area, suitable equipped and having the mission to deny SAR, BDA, post engagement assessment, some were there to exactly pinpoint once their SAR heli took to the air (real-time battle int), some had the mission to neutralize that specific SPYDER battery which ultimately (lucky for us...made us literally sweat at one moment, the same battery dried the sweat by doing a Blue on Blue ) took down one of their own heli instead of one of our aircrafts, some teams much deeper (Su-30 wreck etc), some were in overwatch mode in the area of that ammo dump which was bombed, their secondary mission being to ambush the convoy having HVTs which was bound to move out from that place after bombing (they actually did move the HVTs out in a convoy, could have been easily ambushed with both options of air and ground / fire, but we decided that enough had already been done).....

.......Our PAF danced as it wanted on that day, but there were much important assets on ground (humans and technical) which absolutely neutralized and ultimately sapped the will of indians.....these assets provided the carpet on which PAF danced, because they were spread like a carpet on that terrain...

Simulations are always useful, but my point is there are things which cannot be built into a simulation...... @SQ8 dear, nothing against you ofcourse, just wanted to point out something,

let me depict it in a more interesting manner....

the orange one are the assets, first to came on ground.......that black T Shirt is the PAF....he came from the back of that girl, did what he wanted to do.....then the PAF bugged out, the other girl in jeans can be called our leadership, she first kept on observing what PAF was doing and then literally dragged out the PAF from the arena once she thought it was enough......that orange girl stayed there with a big smile on her face....
the vid also depicts precisely the coordination of steps between PAF and others.....clockwork....