Military Simulation - The Indo-Pak conflict - A hyperbole

[CriticalThought]

So , what has happened by the introduction of these assets is that aircraft will have to fly much lower so reducing their effective combat radius and loiter time. They will have to carry severe jammers otherwise most of the border airspace on the Indian side and half of Pakistani airspace is hostile for their host countries.

Allow me to disagree. This is how an elite airforce such as PAF would plan. According to wikipedia:

S-400 missile system - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

we have the following situation:

Missile Name	Max Velocity	Max Range	Time To Target
40N6E	1190 m/s	400 km	5.6 mins
48N6DM/48N6E3	2000 m/s	250 km	2 mins
48N6E2	2000 m/s	200 km	1.6 mins
9M96	1000 m/s	120 km	2 mins

Assuming the missile flies at max velocity all the way, these are the times on station that PAF pilots have. In reality, the missile will not have a uniform max velocity, and there is time for the target acquisition, and decision making loop as well. This is more than enough time for any professional pilots to launch stand-off weapons. The exception is TV guided missiles such as H-2/4 for which even if NOE tactics are used, Indian AEWACS will pick them up and they will be vulnerable to Indian aircraft. Some measure of air superiority will be required to launch them.

In this context, it is interesting to note the space command. S-400 launches will be picked up by IR based satellites, and I expect at least Thunder pilots hearing 'SAM Launch', 'SAM Launch' in their cockpits. Let's see if they can get this announcement to the Viper Drivers as well.

 

[JamD]

I wonder if @SQ8 would do us the honor of running a simulation involving the newly acquired UAVs (in numbers to confuse the Indian IADS) in conjunctions with J10Cs/JF-17 to launch a first strike at S400 on the other side.

It'd make up for interesting results.

Lets do it on a separate thread - but that would be interesting to see what they are able to do.

Yes, please.

Perhaps we can continue in this thread or perhaps a separate thread is warranted due to the very specific nature of the requested simulation.

Step 0 should be our best estimate of the types, numbers, and roles of systems in service for whenever this scenario is to play out (end of 2022?)

Step 0a listing of types:
PA:
Uqaab
Uqaab NG
CH4B
Burraq
Shahpar II

PAF:
Falco?
Shahpar
Burraq
Shahpar II
TB2
WL
WL2

PN (should we consider PN?):
Luna NG
Scan Eagle
Uqaab NG
CH4B

These are just guesses and I might be wrong on some distributions since I'm just listing them. I would request @farooqbhai007 to correct this list.

Then we can easily decide the roles for each type.

Finally we can guesstimate numbers based on years in production and/or info based on orders.

 

[kursed]

Perhaps we can continue in this thread or perhaps a separate thread is warranted due to the very specific nature of the requested simulation.

Step 0 should be our best estimate of the types, numbers, and roles of systems in service for whenever this scenario is to play out (end of 2022?)

Step 0a listing of types:
PA:
Uqaab
Uqaab NG
CH4B
Burraq
Shahpar II

PAF:
Falco?
Shahpar
Burraq
Shahpar II
TB2
WL
WL2

PN (should we consider PN?):
Luna NG
Scan Eagle
Uqaab NG
CH4B

These are just guesses and I might be wrong on some distributions since I'm just listing them. I would request @farooqbhai007 to correct this list.

Then we can easily decide the roles for each type.

Finally we can guesstimate numbers based on years in production and/or info based on orders.

CM401, iREK, REK III and MAR-1 kits. EW payload on WL2s. Couple this with on ground help from Fatah-1.

 

[JamD]

We would also need to think about how many UCAVs can be launched for a time-on-target type attack. Maybe keep the scenario limited to a strike on that Brahmos housing facility on that other thread. Or maybe Ambala AFB.

 

[kursed]

Waiting on @SQ8

 

[SQ8]

tagging those who requested/liked the idea @kursed @JamD @_NOBODY_ @HRK @PWFI @AMG_12 @The Eagle @PanzerKiel
The Brahmos Gambit:
Playing on the scenario requested - India is planning a pre-emptive Brahmos strike on Pakistani installations after a militant attack following by India launching an abortive airstrike towards Pakistan.
The threat is credible enough that a combined strike against the Halwara depot has been authorized and assets put into play.
It is expected that the India strike will commence at midnight for which they are going to start to move their Brahmos assets.
There are 3 bunkers at Halwara which are storage facilities - some Brahmos have already been deployed to a launch site close to the border while others are on the move to pre=prepared locations but their movement is unknown.
In a semblance of cover India has CAPs patrolling including flights of MKIs, UPGs and Rafale's with AEW support from Netras.
Adampur houses the S-400 which is the primary threat for any strike group and must be removed - it is protected by Sa-3s and close in by Iglas.
Halwara is protected by SPYDER systems

In return Pakistan will be launching a combined manned/unmanned offensive against India using:

3 x Anka EW UAVs - 2 focused towards Adampur and the S-400 site.
1x Anka EW already patrolling near Lahore
1x Anka ELINT already patrolling near Lahore
2 x Wingloong ELINT at high altitude,
2x WIngloong HJ-10 ATGM for Anti-Brahmos activity at low altitude
4 x Falco UAVs for surveillance and to act as decoys
4 TB-2 UAVs for offensive against Adampur and Halwara
4x Burraq against any border radar/sam systems

1x IL-78 Midas for AAR
1 x Saab 2000 for AEW out of range of S-400 at Adampur.

2 J-10Cs fighter sweep for Adampur (sargodha)
2 JF-17 Block-2s with SEAD loadout for Adampur Kamra) - will refuel from Il-78
2 JF-17 Block-3s with SEAD loadout for Adampur Kamra) - will refuel from Il-78
2 JF-17 Block-3s with PL-15 escort of for Adampur SEAD

2 JF-17 Block-2s with SEAD loadout for Halwara (Rafiqui)
4 JF-17 Block-2 escort for Halwara (Rafiqui)
3x2 flights of Mirages with H-4 with 1 Mirage-III for guidance against 2 bunkers (Rafiqui)
2 x JF-17 Block-2 armed with REK for S-400 (Kamra) - will refuel from Il-78
4 x J-10C fighter sweep for Halwara (sargodha)

4 F-16s for a low level Ambush CAP within Pakistani territory (sargodha)
1x Falcon 20 to provide stand off ECM.

2 JF-17s from Peshawar are conducting a CAP near Islamabad

2 Ground based ELINT sensors will try to locate Indian emitters.

Pakistan LRSAMs are HQ-9Bs near Gujranwala and at the Sihala site.

India will not engage aircraft until Pakistan breaches airspace - Pakistan will not engage until a Pakistan asset is threatened.

Local time PST is around 1800 hours at start of mission so dusk takeoffs for first assets

1810: First flight of longer ranged UAVs(wing loong, Ankas, TB2s) start taking off from Murid heading towards the border. Indian AEW picks up the Wing loongs and 1 Anka.

The UAV's continue to proceed until 1900 hours where near Rahwali the flight of Falco UAVs takes off and starts heading towards the border as well.
The Kamra based JF-17s have taken off and will meet the il-78 near Kallar Kahar.
Joining at are the flight of Burraq from Rahwali as well. They are visibile to the Indian side so a triggerred reinforcement of the CAP takes off from Ambala of 2 x Rafale Cs armed with Meteors and MICAs

At 2000 hours the Strike packages start taking off from Rafiqui along with the Escort and Ambush CAP - and by 2030 hours the first UAVs are crossing the border.
They are picked up by Indian systems and the S-400 starts to engage with full force along with Indian fighters. At this time however the Ankas start jamming making it difficult for the Mig-29 CAP to engage.
Because the Pakistani assets were engaged - The HQ-9 start spitting out missiles at pretty much every Indian aircraft in the air- they are forced defensive and take losses while the higher flying ELINT and SURVEILLANCE wingloongs along with 2 Falcos are lost.

At the end of the first SAM Barrage from the Gujranwala HQ-9 site all but 1 Rafale of the Original Indian CAP remains.

2100 hours:
1 MirageV of the strike group and a F-16AM on CAP is lost to a S-400,
The Indian ADGE however is getting badly jammed as the Pakistani UAVs move in.

2120 hours:
As the Pakistani manned strike rolls in and launches its weapons the UAVs head into attacking both targets of opportunity and Indian ADGE.
ARMs take out the radars of the S-400 and other SAM systems until the JF-17 with REKs takes out the entire site. Indian interceptors are still raring to take off from Pathankot, Ambala and Halwara as well.

The Jamming is keeping most Indian SAMs from engaging other than SPYDERs which bring down TB2s and 1 Anka ECM unit.
Meanwhile as the first H-4s start arriving at the Halwara bunkers and the S-400 site has been pretty much flattened while the Burraqs kill the Brahmos TELs at the prepared site.

2130 Hours - PAF J-10s are now operating within Indian airspace and establish air superiority. PAF AEW is not flying closer to the border - Rafale Cs arriving in from Ambala engage PAF J-10s with Meteors but are quickly brought down.
UAVs are still being lost to MANPADS with 2 Burraqs brought down. Meanwhile a Falco picks out a convoy of Brahmos launchers in the outskirts of Halwara and the Wingloongs are tasked with taking it out.

Indian interceptors taking off are brought down rapidly by the J-10s while the Sirsa flight has to contend with PAF F-16 CAPs and HQ-9Bs. Pathankot flight of Mig-21s falls to JF-17s escorting.
by 2200 hours The Bunkers at halwara were 70% damaged which was the primary target, S-400 site was neutralized and Brahmos launchers on the Move or deployed were destroyed.

At this point I ended the simulation:

India Losses:

LOSSES:
-------------------------------
4x Brahmos Blk I [Land-Attack] [Cargo]
5x Brahmos Blk III [Land-Attack] [Cargo]
1x EMB-145I AEWC - No idea when this was taken out as I did not even notice it during the more intense part of the sim.
2x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison] (Pathankot Interceptors)
2x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A (original CAP)
1x Radar (Master-T)
1x Radar (PSM-33 Mk2)
1x Radar (Tin Shield A [5N59])
4x Rafale C (2 from original CAP and 2 from Ambala interceptors)
3x SA-16 Gimlet [9K310 Igla-1] MANPADS [Cargo]
8x SA-21a/b Growler TEL [Cargo]
3x SA-3b Goa Quad Rail [Cargo]
3x SA-7a Grail [9K32 Strela-2] MANPADS [Cargo]
4x Su-30MKI Flanker H (Halwara Interceptors)
4x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H (Sirsa Interceptors)
2x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H (original CAP)
1x Vehicle (Cheese Board [96L6]) [Cargo]
1x Vehicle (Flat Face B [P-19]) [Cargo]
1x Vehicle (Grave Stone [92N2]) [Cargo]
1x Vehicle (Low Blow [SNR-125]) [Cargo]
1x Vehicle (Straight Flush [1S91]) [Cargo]

Expenditures:
------------------
12x 1250 liter Drop Tank
2x 1500 liter Drop Tank
2x 800 liter Drop Tank
8x Derby [SPYDER-MR]
25x Generic Chaff Salvo [4x Cartridges]
3x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
2x Generic Flare Salvo [3x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
6x Generic Flare Salvo [4x Cartridges, Dual Spectral]
21x Generic Flare Salvo [4x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
7x Python 5 [SPYDER-MR]
12x SA-21b Growler [40N6]
6x SA-3b Goa [5V27, V-601P]


Pakistan Losses:
-------------------------------
2x Anka-I ELINT Mod
1x F-16AM Falcon MLU
4x Falco UAV
1x GJ-2 Wing Loong [Pterodactyl] II UCAV
1x GJ-2 Wing Loong II ELINT UCAV
1x Anka-I ECM Mod UAV [Star]
1x Mirage 5F [ROSE II/III]
1x Wing Loong [Pterodactyl] II UCAV

EXPENDITURES:
------------------
4x 23mm Type 23-3 Burst [40 rnds]
2x AIM-9P-4 Sidewinder (apparently 1 MKI taking off was brought down by a guiding Mirage-IIIEL who stuck around for god knows what reason)
8x Barq ATGM
5x Generic Chaff Salvo [4x Cartridges]
2x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
4x H-4 SOW [Raptor 2]
7x HJ-10 ATGM
33x HQ-9B
11x LS-6-500 Extended-Range Bomb, GPS/INS [500kg HE]
12x MAR-1 [ARM]
4x PL-10
9x PL-15
2x PL-9

My thoughts; Surprised at how effective the IAV jammers were and how they truly did make that entire ADGE weep. However, The handicap for the Indian side is that they are not expecting an offensive. The tables might be different if the Indian side is opening the salvos with the S-400 before Jammers are within range.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

All well outlined and plausible strategic outcomes - but perhaps I should have clarified. Seeing as how I am posting a tactical view - what do you see happening on the tactical level.
so for e.g. after the heavy Indian attack on the 28th - Pakistan retaliates within 40 minutes with a massive barrage of Shaheen -II and Babur systems armed with conventional warheads while simultaneously hitting the Indian Air force and key command and control nodes. This I can put into the sim if I get a guess of where to place what. Does that make sense?

Ok - so lets put that into what happens later on 28th February - what is Pakistani retaliation to what you quoted?

Well - that sort of played out already. So what happens after this massive Indian retaliation for swift retort. Now what tactical scenario plays out?

Do you believe (your simulation predicts) that our conventional fighting abilities using platforms like acs would be blunted to the extent that we would have to use CMs and BMs? The simulation ended with IAF withdrawal at around 3 am from the Pakistani skies. Can you imagine a scenario where a Pakistani riposte includes PAF as well?

I am curious if we are conducting integrated exercises using all these assets simultaneously to war game similar scenarios. When PAF conducts exercises, there is no leak about simulating BM/CM strikes as well anywhere.

We could not afford to wage a long conflict given the state of our economy, otherwise, cross LoC large scale intrusions could be a good riposte that could catch Indians by surprise if they were waiting for a type for type response. However, for any substantive gains in terms of capturing and holding ground in Kashmir, troop mobilization would have to take place. I wonder if mixed "irregulars" and available troops, special forces in AJK could be routed to probe Indian defenses along the LoC as rapid mobilization of other elements takes place. We must be able to mobilize more quickly than the Indians in this scenario as well.

 

[PanzerKiel]

I am curious if we are conducting integrated exercises using all these assets simultaneously to war game similar scenarios. When PAF conducts exercises, there is no leak about simulating BM/CM strikes as well anywhere.

We could not afford to wage a long conflict given the state of our economy, otherwise, cross LoC large scale intrusions could be a good riposte that could catch Indians by surprise if they were waiting for a type for type response. However, for any substantive gains in terms of capturing and holding ground in Kashmir, troop mobilization would have to take place. I wonder if mixed "irregulars" and available troops, special forces in AJK could be routed to probe Indian defenses along the LoC as rapid mobilization of other elements takes place. We must be able to mobilize more quickly than the Indians in this scenario as well.

I can answer all this..... But somehow can't. Just can assure you that all this this plays out pretty smoothly.....with a much greater escalation.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

I can answer all this..... But somehow can't. Just can assure you that all this this plays out pretty smoothly.....with a much greater escalation.

A quick intrusion and grab of as much territory as possible along the LoC followed by the mating of strategic weapons would make the world intervene immediately while denting the prestige of the Indian military as well as the Hindu nationalist government's popularity there.

 

[kursed]

tagging those who requested/liked the idea @kursed @JamD @_NOBODY_ @HRK @PWFI @AMG_12 @The Eagle @PanzerKiel
The Brahmos Gambit:
Playing on the scenario requested - India is planning a pre-emptive Brahmos strike on Pakistani installations after a militant attack following by India launching an abortive airstrike towards Pakistan.
The threat is credible enough that a combined strike against the Halwara depot has been authorized and assets put into play.
It is expected that the India strike will commence at midnight for which they are going to start to move their Brahmos assets.
There are 3 bunkers at Halwara which are storage facilities - some Brahmos have already been deployed to a launch site close to the border while others are on the move to pre=prepared locations but their movement is unknown.
In a semblance of cover India has CAPs patrolling including flights of MKIs, UPGs and Rafale's with AEW support from Netras.
Adampur houses the S-400 which is the primary threat for any strike group and must be removed - it is protected by Sa-3s and close in by Iglas.
Halwara is protected by SPYDER systems

In return Pakistan will be launching a combined manned/unmanned offensive against India using:

3 x Anka EW UAVs - 2 focused towards Adampur and the S-400 site.
1x Anka EW already patrolling near Lahore
1x Anka ELINT already patrolling near Lahore
2 x Wingloong ELINT at high altitude,
2x WIngloong HJ-10 ATGM for Anti-Brahmos activity at low altitude
4 x Falco UAVs for surveillance and to act as decoys
4 TB-2 UAVs for offensive against Adampur and Halwara
4x Burraq against any border radar/sam systems

1x IL-78 Midas for AAR
1 x Saab 2000 for AEW out of range of S-400 at Adampur.

2 J-10Cs fighter sweep for Adampur (sargodha)
2 JF-17 Block-2s with SEAD loadout for Adampur Kamra) - will refuel from Il-78
2 JF-17 Block-3s with SEAD loadout for Adampur Kamra) - will refuel from Il-78
2 JF-17 Block-3s with PL-15 escort of for Adampur SEAD

2 JF-17 Block-2s with SEAD loadout for Halwara (Rafiqui)
4 JF-17 Block-2 escort for Halwara (Rafiqui)
3x2 flights of Mirages with H-4 with 1 Mirage-III for guidance against 2 bunkers (Rafiqui)
2 x JF-17 Block-2 armed with REK for S-400 (Kamra) - will refuel from Il-78
4 x J-10C fighter sweep for Halwara (sargodha)

4 F-16s for a low level Ambush CAP within Pakistani territory (sargodha)
1x Falcon 20 to provide stand off ECM.

2 JF-17s from Peshawar are conducting a CAP near Islamabad

2 Ground based ELINT sensors will try to locate Indian emitters.

Pakistan LRSAMs are HQ-9Bs near Gujranwala and at the Sihala site.

India will not engage aircraft until Pakistan breaches airspace - Pakistan will not engage until a Pakistan asset is threatened.

Local time PST is around 1800 hours at start of mission so dusk takeoffs for first assets

1810: First flight of longer ranged UAVs(wing loong, Ankas, TB2s) start taking off from Murid heading towards the border. Indian AEW picks up the Wing loongs and 1 Anka.

View attachment 807940

The UAV's continue to proceed until 1900 hours where near Rahwali the flight of Falco UAVs takes off and starts heading towards the border as well.
The Kamra based JF-17s have taken off and will meet the il-78 near Kallar Kahar.
Joining at are the flight of Burraq from Rahwali as well. They are visibile to the Indian side so a triggerred reinforcement of the CAP takes off from Ambala of 2 x Rafale Cs armed with Meteors and MICAs

View attachment 807941

At 2000 hours the Strike packages start taking off from Rafiqui along with the Escort and Ambush CAP - and by 2030 hours the first UAVs are crossing the border.
They are picked up by Indian systems and the S-400 starts to engage with full force along with Indian fighters. At this time however the Ankas start jamming making it difficult for the Mig-29 CAP to engage.
Because the Pakistani assets were engaged - The HQ-9 start spitting out missiles at pretty much every Indian aircraft in the air- they are forced defensive and take losses while the higher flying ELINT and SURVEILLANCE wingloongs along with 2 Falcos are lost.

At the end of the first SAM Barrage from the Gujranwala HQ-9 site all but 1 Rafale of the Original Indian CAP remains.

View attachment 807942

2100 hours:
1 MirageV of the strike group and a F-16AM on CAP is lost to a S-400,
The Indian ADGE however is getting badly jammed as the Pakistani UAVs move in.

View attachment 807943

2120 hours:
As the Pakistani manned strike rolls in and launches its weapons the UAVs head into attacking both targets of opportunity and Indian ADGE.
ARMs take out the radars of the S-400 and other SAM systems until the JF-17 with REKs takes out the entire site. Indian interceptors are still raring to take off from Pathankot, Ambala and Halwara as well.

The Jamming is keeping most Indian SAMs from engaging other than SPYDERs which bring down TB2s and 1 Anka ECM unit.
Meanwhile as the first H-4s start arriving at the Halwara bunkers and the S-400 site has been pretty much flattened while the Burraqs kill the Brahmos TELs at the prepared site.

View attachment 807944

2130 Hours - PAF J-10s are now operating within Indian airspace and establish air superiority. PAF AEW is not flying closer to the border - Rafale Cs arriving in from Ambala engage PAF J-10s with Meteors but are quickly brought down.
UAVs are still being lost to MANPADS with 2 Burraqs brought down. Meanwhile a Falco picks out a convoy of Brahmos launchers in the outskirts of Halwara and the Wingloongs are tasked with taking it out.


View attachment 807945

Indian interceptors taking off are brought down rapidly by the J-10s while the Sirsa flight has to contend with PAF F-16 CAPs and HQ-9Bs. Pathankot flight of Mig-21s falls to JF-17s escorting.
by 2200 hours The Bunkers at halwara were 70% damaged which was the primary target, S-400 site was neutralized and Brahmos launchers on the Move or deployed were destroyed.

At this point I ended the simulation:

India Losses:

LOSSES:
-------------------------------
4x Brahmos Blk I [Land-Attack] [Cargo]
5x Brahmos Blk III [Land-Attack] [Cargo]
1x EMB-145I AEWC - No idea when this was taken out as I did not even notice it during the more intense part of the sim.
2x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison] (Pathankot Interceptors)
2x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A (original CAP)
1x Radar (Master-T)
1x Radar (PSM-33 Mk2)
1x Radar (Tin Shield A [5N59])
4x Rafale C (2 from original CAP and 2 from Ambala interceptors)
3x SA-16 Gimlet [9K310 Igla-1] MANPADS [Cargo]
8x SA-21a/b Growler TEL [Cargo]
3x SA-3b Goa Quad Rail [Cargo]
3x SA-7a Grail [9K32 Strela-2] MANPADS [Cargo]
4x Su-30MKI Flanker H (Halwara Interceptors)
4x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H (Sirsa Interceptors)
2x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H (original CAP)
1x Vehicle (Cheese Board [96L6]) [Cargo]
1x Vehicle (Flat Face B [P-19]) [Cargo]
1x Vehicle (Grave Stone [92N2]) [Cargo]
1x Vehicle (Low Blow [SNR-125]) [Cargo]
1x Vehicle (Straight Flush [1S91]) [Cargo]

Expenditures:
------------------
12x 1250 liter Drop Tank
2x 1500 liter Drop Tank
2x 800 liter Drop Tank
8x Derby [SPYDER-MR]
25x Generic Chaff Salvo [4x Cartridges]
3x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
2x Generic Flare Salvo [3x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
6x Generic Flare Salvo [4x Cartridges, Dual Spectral]
21x Generic Flare Salvo [4x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
7x Python 5 [SPYDER-MR]
12x SA-21b Growler [40N6]
6x SA-3b Goa [5V27, V-601P]


Pakistan Losses:
-------------------------------
2x Anka-I ELINT Mod
1x F-16AM Falcon MLU
4x Falco UAV
1x GJ-2 Wing Loong [Pterodactyl] II UCAV
1x GJ-2 Wing Loong II ELINT UCAV
1x Anka-I ECM Mod UAV [Star]
1x Mirage 5F [ROSE II/III]
1x Wing Loong [Pterodactyl] II UCAV

EXPENDITURES:
------------------
4x 23mm Type 23-3 Burst [40 rnds]
2x AIM-9P-4 Sidewinder (apparently 1 MKI taking off was brought down by a guiding Mirage-IIIEL who stuck around for god knows what reason)
8x Barq ATGM
5x Generic Chaff Salvo [4x Cartridges]
2x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
4x H-4 SOW [Raptor 2]
7x HJ-10 ATGM
33x HQ-9B
11x LS-6-500 Extended-Range Bomb, GPS/INS [500kg HE]
12x MAR-1 [ARM]
4x PL-10
9x PL-15
2x PL-9

My thoughts; Surprised at how effective the IAV jammers were and how they truly did make that entire ADGE weep. However, The handicap for the Indian side is that they are not expecting an offensive. The tables might be different if the Indian side is opening the salvos with the S-400 before Jammers are within range.

Pretty much how I’d have imagined this scenario to shape up. I would like to know if you can add Fatah-1 to the mix, before our UAVs start jamming the other side - while considering S400 operational (active) - pushing its effective range back - and instead of H4, JF17s deploy with CM401s. And so far, we haven’t even taken into account loitering munition capable of being deployed via ANKA, WL2s and TB2s for SEAD missions.

All in all, you can pretty much see why PAF is going for a large number of UAVs right here.

 

[JamD]

Pretty much how I’d have imagined this scenario to shape up. I would like to know if you can add Fatah-1 to the mix, before our UAVs start jamming the other side - while considering S400 operational (active) - pushing its effective range back - and instead of H4, JF17s deploy with CM401s. And so far, we haven’t even taken into account loitering munition capable of being deployed via ANKA, WL2s and TB2s for SEAD missions.

All in all, you can pretty much see why PAF is going for a large number of UAVs right here.

Question: Is India doing the same? If not wont they eventually? How does one defend against something like this?

 

[PanzerKiel]

tagging those who requested/liked the idea @kursed @JamD @_NOBODY_ @HRK @PWFI @AMG_12 @The Eagle @PanzerKiel
The Brahmos Gambit:
Playing on the scenario requested - India is planning a pre-emptive Brahmos strike on Pakistani installations after a militant attack following by India launching an abortive airstrike towards Pakistan.
The threat is credible enough that a combined strike against the Halwara depot has been authorized and assets put into play.
It is expected that the India strike will commence at midnight for which they are going to start to move their Brahmos assets.
There are 3 bunkers at Halwara which are storage facilities - some Brahmos have already been deployed to a launch site close to the border while others are on the move to pre=prepared locations but their movement is unknown.
In a semblance of cover India has CAPs patrolling including flights of MKIs, UPGs and Rafale's with AEW support from Netras.
Adampur houses the S-400 which is the primary threat for any strike group and must be removed - it is protected by Sa-3s and close in by Iglas.
Halwara is protected by SPYDER systems

In return Pakistan will be launching a combined manned/unmanned offensive against India using:

3 x Anka EW UAVs - 2 focused towards Adampur and the S-400 site.
1x Anka EW already patrolling near Lahore
1x Anka ELINT already patrolling near Lahore
2 x Wingloong ELINT at high altitude,
2x WIngloong HJ-10 ATGM for Anti-Brahmos activity at low altitude
4 x Falco UAVs for surveillance and to act as decoys
4 TB-2 UAVs for offensive against Adampur and Halwara
4x Burraq against any border radar/sam systems

1x IL-78 Midas for AAR
1 x Saab 2000 for AEW out of range of S-400 at Adampur.

2 J-10Cs fighter sweep for Adampur (sargodha)
2 JF-17 Block-2s with SEAD loadout for Adampur Kamra) - will refuel from Il-78
2 JF-17 Block-3s with SEAD loadout for Adampur Kamra) - will refuel from Il-78
2 JF-17 Block-3s with PL-15 escort of for Adampur SEAD

2 JF-17 Block-2s with SEAD loadout for Halwara (Rafiqui)
4 JF-17 Block-2 escort for Halwara (Rafiqui)
3x2 flights of Mirages with H-4 with 1 Mirage-III for guidance against 2 bunkers (Rafiqui)
2 x JF-17 Block-2 armed with REK for S-400 (Kamra) - will refuel from Il-78
4 x J-10C fighter sweep for Halwara (sargodha)

4 F-16s for a low level Ambush CAP within Pakistani territory (sargodha)
1x Falcon 20 to provide stand off ECM.

2 JF-17s from Peshawar are conducting a CAP near Islamabad

2 Ground based ELINT sensors will try to locate Indian emitters.

Pakistan LRSAMs are HQ-9Bs near Gujranwala and at the Sihala site.

India will not engage aircraft until Pakistan breaches airspace - Pakistan will not engage until a Pakistan asset is threatened.

Local time PST is around 1800 hours at start of mission so dusk takeoffs for first assets

1810: First flight of longer ranged UAVs(wing loong, Ankas, TB2s) start taking off from Murid heading towards the border. Indian AEW picks up the Wing loongs and 1 Anka.

View attachment 807940

The UAV's continue to proceed until 1900 hours where near Rahwali the flight of Falco UAVs takes off and starts heading towards the border as well.
The Kamra based JF-17s have taken off and will meet the il-78 near Kallar Kahar.
Joining at are the flight of Burraq from Rahwali as well. They are visibile to the Indian side so a triggerred reinforcement of the CAP takes off from Ambala of 2 x Rafale Cs armed with Meteors and MICAs

View attachment 807941

At 2000 hours the Strike packages start taking off from Rafiqui along with the Escort and Ambush CAP - and by 2030 hours the first UAVs are crossing the border.
They are picked up by Indian systems and the S-400 starts to engage with full force along with Indian fighters. At this time however the Ankas start jamming making it difficult for the Mig-29 CAP to engage.
Because the Pakistani assets were engaged - The HQ-9 start spitting out missiles at pretty much every Indian aircraft in the air- they are forced defensive and take losses while the higher flying ELINT and SURVEILLANCE wingloongs along with 2 Falcos are lost.

At the end of the first SAM Barrage from the Gujranwala HQ-9 site all but 1 Rafale of the Original Indian CAP remains.

View attachment 807942

2100 hours:
1 MirageV of the strike group and a F-16AM on CAP is lost to a S-400,
The Indian ADGE however is getting badly jammed as the Pakistani UAVs move in.

View attachment 807943

2120 hours:
As the Pakistani manned strike rolls in and launches its weapons the UAVs head into attacking both targets of opportunity and Indian ADGE.
ARMs take out the radars of the S-400 and other SAM systems until the JF-17 with REKs takes out the entire site. Indian interceptors are still raring to take off from Pathankot, Ambala and Halwara as well.

The Jamming is keeping most Indian SAMs from engaging other than SPYDERs which bring down TB2s and 1 Anka ECM unit.
Meanwhile as the first H-4s start arriving at the Halwara bunkers and the S-400 site has been pretty much flattened while the Burraqs kill the Brahmos TELs at the prepared site.

View attachment 807944

2130 Hours - PAF J-10s are now operating within Indian airspace and establish air superiority. PAF AEW is not flying closer to the border - Rafale Cs arriving in from Ambala engage PAF J-10s with Meteors but are quickly brought down.
UAVs are still being lost to MANPADS with 2 Burraqs brought down. Meanwhile a Falco picks out a convoy of Brahmos launchers in the outskirts of Halwara and the Wingloongs are tasked with taking it out.


View attachment 807945

Indian interceptors taking off are brought down rapidly by the J-10s while the Sirsa flight has to contend with PAF F-16 CAPs and HQ-9Bs. Pathankot flight of Mig-21s falls to JF-17s escorting.
by 2200 hours The Bunkers at halwara were 70% damaged which was the primary target, S-400 site was neutralized and Brahmos launchers on the Move or deployed were destroyed.

At this point I ended the simulation:

India Losses:

LOSSES:
-------------------------------
4x Brahmos Blk I [Land-Attack] [Cargo]
5x Brahmos Blk III [Land-Attack] [Cargo]
1x EMB-145I AEWC - No idea when this was taken out as I did not even notice it during the more intense part of the sim.
2x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison] (Pathankot Interceptors)
2x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A (original CAP)
1x Radar (Master-T)
1x Radar (PSM-33 Mk2)
1x Radar (Tin Shield A [5N59])
4x Rafale C (2 from original CAP and 2 from Ambala interceptors)
3x SA-16 Gimlet [9K310 Igla-1] MANPADS [Cargo]
8x SA-21a/b Growler TEL [Cargo]
3x SA-3b Goa Quad Rail [Cargo]
3x SA-7a Grail [9K32 Strela-2] MANPADS [Cargo]
4x Su-30MKI Flanker H (Halwara Interceptors)
4x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H (Sirsa Interceptors)
2x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H (original CAP)
1x Vehicle (Cheese Board [96L6]) [Cargo]
1x Vehicle (Flat Face B [P-19]) [Cargo]
1x Vehicle (Grave Stone [92N2]) [Cargo]
1x Vehicle (Low Blow [SNR-125]) [Cargo]
1x Vehicle (Straight Flush [1S91]) [Cargo]

Expenditures:
------------------
12x 1250 liter Drop Tank
2x 1500 liter Drop Tank
2x 800 liter Drop Tank
8x Derby [SPYDER-MR]
25x Generic Chaff Salvo [4x Cartridges]
3x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
2x Generic Flare Salvo [3x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
6x Generic Flare Salvo [4x Cartridges, Dual Spectral]
21x Generic Flare Salvo [4x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
7x Python 5 [SPYDER-MR]
12x SA-21b Growler [40N6]
6x SA-3b Goa [5V27, V-601P]


Pakistan Losses:
-------------------------------
2x Anka-I ELINT Mod
1x F-16AM Falcon MLU
4x Falco UAV
1x GJ-2 Wing Loong [Pterodactyl] II UCAV
1x GJ-2 Wing Loong II ELINT UCAV
1x Anka-I ECM Mod UAV [Star]
1x Mirage 5F [ROSE II/III]
1x Wing Loong [Pterodactyl] II UCAV

EXPENDITURES:
------------------
4x 23mm Type 23-3 Burst [40 rnds]
2x AIM-9P-4 Sidewinder (apparently 1 MKI taking off was brought down by a guiding Mirage-IIIEL who stuck around for god knows what reason)
8x Barq ATGM
5x Generic Chaff Salvo [4x Cartridges]
2x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
4x H-4 SOW [Raptor 2]
7x HJ-10 ATGM
33x HQ-9B
11x LS-6-500 Extended-Range Bomb, GPS/INS [500kg HE]
12x MAR-1 [ARM]
4x PL-10
9x PL-15
2x PL-9

My thoughts; Surprised at how effective the IAV jammers were and how they truly did make that entire ADGE weep. However, The handicap for the Indian side is that they are not expecting an offensive. The tables might be different if the Indian side is opening the salvos with the S-400 before Jammers are within range.

Some important lessons for me......"on a personal level"...from this simulation.....

First HQ-9.......33 rounds were fired.....means troops need to be highly trained in quick loading drills, ammo reserve needs to be readily available after each engagement....ammo carriers along with the SAM site itself need to be protected at all cost.

Second...simulation maybe does not take into account duds or failed launches......

Third...Brahmos....some of them were taken out.....however, God knows if some of them are nuclear tipped, what would be the outcome? Rad fallout?

Fourth...Indian jamming capabilities....there are more than 10 Signal EW Groups, out of which number 1 group is with their Northern Command....their jamming capabilities are considerable....should have an effect on our UAV operations....but then they might use as a last resort....which means NOTHING would fly.

Fifth....i see no mention of commercial flights.....if they are not there, that serves as an early indicator, if they are there then it gets pretty dangerous.

My two cents. @SQ8 excellent read as usual.

 

[SQ8]

Question: Is India doing the same? If not wont they eventually? How does one defend against something like this?

That really is the right question - Pakistan was a direct spectator/advisor to the karabakh conflict where Israel being India’s partner who was the spectator/advisor. Only Israel is a manufacturer who can adapt on the fly.

 

[PanzerKiel]

Some important lessons for me......"on a personal level"...from this simulation.....

First HQ-9.......33 rounds were fired.....means troops need to be highly trained in quick loading drills, ammo reserve needs to be readily available after each engagement....ammo carriers need to be protected at all cost.

Second...simulation maybe does not take into account duds or failed launches......

Third...Brahmos....some of them were taken out.....however, God knows if some of them are nuclear tipped, what would be the outcome? Rad fallout?

Fourth...Indian jamming capabilities....there are more than 10 Signal EW Groups, out of which number 1 group is with their Northern Command....their jamming capabilities are considerable....should have an effect on our UAV operations....but then they might use as a last resort....which means EVERYTHING would go out.

Fifth....i see no mention of commercial flights.....if they are not there, that serves as an early indicator, if they are there then it gets pretty dangerous.

My two cents. @SQ8 excellent read as usual.

...and then, what if, India goes all out against us...with all assets....that would be even more interesting.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

Question: Is India doing the same? If not wont they eventually? How does one defend against something like this?

They are working on swarm drone technology. They have put in some rudimentary stuff in the public domain already. Their armed UAV program might not be that far ahead, but they might be looking at utilizing unmanned systems in other ways (cluttering the enemy's AD environment to affect increased survivability for their aircraft in contested environments) than purely as platforms for payload delivery.