Military Simulation - The Indo-Pak conflict - A hyperbole

[SQ8]

Has SSW been thrown in the mix yet ? If not, then an important element of PAF's offensive arm on the ground is missing.

It was in an earlier scenario - what is interesting is that the computer activity detects and targets the H-4 but real life is different.

You have then to take into account PAF’s two new assets; CM-401 and REK-3. We would have targeted S-400 if it’d painted our aircrafts. And Mirages wouldn’t have depended on H4.

S-400 from the date of its inclusion into Indian ORBAT, would be at the top of PAF's target list. It would have been neutralized by all means available, if it was seen as a threat on Feb 2019.

Absolutely! The entire plan would have been very different but the general danger posed by LRSAMs to “normal” operations is very palpable.

 

[Maarkhoor]

Bull shit .... @SQ8

 

[Jungibaaz]

Nice update, it’s quite evident from your simulation how difficult to achieve these strikes would have been had S-400 and HQ-9P been deployed. I think back then in their absence we concluded that because of initiative advantage and fog of war / RoE restrictions, the defender would always have odds stacked against them if the other side planned properly. I wonder to what extent that dynamic has changed now with this significant challenge introduced, the defender should surely have an easier go of it now.

 

[SQ8]

Nice update, it’s quite evident from your simulation how difficult to achieve these strikes would have been had S-400 and HQ-9P been deployed. I think back then in their absence we concluded that because of initiative advantage and fog of war / RoE restrictions, the defender would always have odds stacked against them if the other side planned properly. I wonder to what extent that dynamic has changed now with this significant challenge introduced, the defender should surely have an easier go of it now.

I would think that the 26th strike might still have gone through but then the 27th would have had to be something very different in some respects. Perhaps the mirages would need to do some AAR or hot refuel from a FOB. The vipers would also follow a different profile with more equipped with the AIDEWS pods along with perhaps the block-52s being brought in.
It would still be achievable since the HQ-9 would provide the cover against interception by the IAF as well so the escort/sweep could focus on low level.

 

[JamD]

You have then to take into account PAF’s two new assets; CM-401 and REK-3...

Is that a typo and you really meant CM400AKG? Or is this news?

 

[kursed]

Is that a typo and you really meant CM400AKG? Or is this news?

Apologies, I was typing from my cell. I meant CM400AKG.

 

[SQ8]

Alright - since people @kursed had pointed out that the original scenario seemed rigged to give the LRSAMs an advantage. I just reran it with a few minor adjustments.

The doctrine for the Indian side was that it was to go weapons free as soon as the first strike was hit(H-4 hit on Narian or Naushera).

So the Mirage strike force was tasked to take a different route westward but otherwise the same altitude profile. Launching from the south west rather than a southern approach. The H-4 guidance aircraft too follow this approach and all made it back ok with decent internal fuel remaining.

The F-16 escort package too was tasked to fly at 2000ft all the way to the border.

The interesting aspect of this approach was that while with the original approach the simulated Indian aircraft would redirect and focus on the strike group, here they seemed to have no clue and happily loitered away.

The REK group with JF-17s too was not bothered inbound and by this time the trigger made ROE hostile pursuit for the Indian side but they were unable to bother the strike package instead starting a spat with the JF-17 escort.

Now at this time the S-400 at Adampur(elevation 800ft) was ROE free to engage all targets not positively identified as friendly and yet not a single missile left the ground. I took over and deliberately tried to get it to fire at everything and it would not fire. (FYI I had set the skill level for both LRSAMs as average so no inequality).
This same S-400 that was pumping out missile after missile at the F-16 flight at 20000ft was unable to make a meow at 2000ft???
It did manage to launch 1 missile finally at a F-16 but that went stupid after heading towards the north east. Was overall SA for the Indian side a factor?

BECAUSE - getting a targeting solution on something flying 50km closer at 15000ft is easier than something flying either same area at 2000ft or further out.

Oddly, as the computer(and not humans) were controlling both sides - the Indian M2Ks do try to engage the JF-17s and also the H-4 weapons again. This triggers the F-16s on the Pakistani side to start lobbing AMRAAMS even from 2000ft. The loft as they do and 7 AIM-120s vs 4 MKIs is not good math of which only one manages to make an AMRAAM dodger.

Now for basically shits and giggles I gave the Sihala based HQ-9 ROE free and it started pumping out missiles at the Mirages even as they ran towards Srinagar(does the Hq-9 loft??) and even with evasive maneuvering those mirages were brought down.

Finally, I let Alpha-1 with his Mig-21 get airborne and as soon as he crossed over Gulmarg heading towards sunset peak at minimum altitude(which in this case was 9000ft) trying to ambush the F-16 flight he had Aim-120s and HQ-9s launched at him. Frankly they could have launched the entire squadron and it would not have survived what was on the other side.

So, takeaways.

Unless the S-400 is placed closer(putting it under risk from even A-100 MBRL attacks) take off to low level flight is very doable and if lessons from the Iranians are taken on refueling at low level then the PAF should be ok to operate and perform decent SEAD operations too.

The HQ-9 placed at Sihala at 1500 ft which had SA from the SAAB and other assets is a freaking monster making anything but low level and NOE airspace over IOK a death zone. And this simulation was designed by western sources using their estimates and "bias".

 

[Bilal.]

Alright - since people @kursed had pointed out that the original scenario seemed rigged to give the LRSAMs an advantage. I just reran it with a few minor adjustments.

The doctrine for the Indian side was that it was to go weapons free as soon as the first strike was hit(H-4 hit on Narian or Naushera).

So the Mirage strike force was tasked to take a different route westward but otherwise the same altitude profile. Launching from the south west rather than a southern approach. The H-4 guidance aircraft too follow this approach and all made it back ok with decent internal fuel remaining.

The F-16 escort package too was tasked to fly at 2000ft all the way to the border.

The interesting aspect of this approach was that while with the original approach the simulated Indian aircraft would redirect and focus on the strike group, here they seemed to have no clue and happily loitered away.
View attachment 796456


The REK group with JF-17s too was not bothered inbound and by this time the trigger made ROE hostile pursuit for the Indian side but they were unable to bother the strike package instead starting a spat with the JF-17 escort.
View attachment 796457

Now at this time the S-400 at Adampur(elevation 800ft) was ROE free to engage all targets not positively identified as friendly and yet not a single missile left the ground. I took over and deliberately tried to get it to fire at everything and it would not fire. (FYI I had set the skill level for both LRSAMs as average so no inequality).
This same S-400 that was pumping out missile after missile at the F-16 flight at 20000ft was unable to make a meow at 2000ft???
It did manage to launch 1 missile finally at a F-16 but that went stupid after heading towards the north east. Was overall SA for the Indian side a factor?

BECAUSE - getting a targeting solution on something flying 50km closer at 15000ft is easier than something flying either same area at 2000ft or further out.

Oddly, as the computer(and not humans) were controlling both sides - the Indian M2Ks do try to engage the JF-17s and also the H-4 weapons again. This triggers the F-16s on the Pakistani side to start lobbing AMRAAMS even from 2000ft. The loft as they do and 7 AIM-120s vs 4 MKIs is not good math of which only one manages to make an AMRAAM dodger.

View attachment 796458

Now for basically shits and giggles I gave the Sihala based HQ-9 ROE free and it started pumping out missiles at the Mirages even as they ran towards Srinagar(does the Hq-9 loft??) and even with evasive maneuvering those mirages were brought down.

Finally, I let Alpha-1 with his Mig-21 get airborne and as soon as he crossed over Gulmarg heading towards sunset peak at minimum altitude(which in this case was 9000ft) trying to ambush the F-16 flight he had Aim-120s and HQ-9s launched at him. Frankly they could have launched the entire squadron and it would not have survived what was on the other side.
View attachment 796459


So, takeaways.

Unless the S-400 is placed closer(putting it under risk from even A-100 MBRL attacks) take off to low level flight is very doable and if lessons from the Iranians are taken on refueling at low level then the PAF should be ok to operate and perform decent SEAD operations too.

The HQ-9 placed at Sihala at 1500 ft which had SA from the SAAB and other assets is a freaking monster making anything but low level and NOE airspace over IOK a death zone. And this simulation was designed by western sources using their estimates and "bias".

Can we add layering to the SAMs on both sides. Would it matter given the performance of HQ9 and S400?

 

[Sine Nomine]

I did something different.
What if Pakistan had HQ-9P on the 26th and found out about the Balakot strike event so went weapons hot?

Assuming the northern side and the HQ-9P replacing the Sihala HQ-2 site. This is the engagement range for the system based on HQ-9B specs.
View attachment 796341

Now the Indian strike would be tracked intermittently by both standalone and HQ-9 search radars as they crossed behind peaks heading towards Balakot
View attachment 796342


If the strike was successful and the PAF aircraft were approaching the primary target - a clear ROE would allow the HQ-9P to engage and kill even the diversionary missions by the IAF and bringing down entire flights of MKIs and M2Ks.



View attachment 796343


And even as PAF interceptors neared, the Balakot strike group could all be engaged as they returned since the other option for them would have to fly into Chinese airspace to get away.

View attachment 796344

One by One - They would all be taken down.
View attachment 796345

View attachment 796346





NOW

What would happen on the 27th if the IAF had the S-400?

This the coverage for the S-400 if it would replace a Sa-3 Goa site at Adampur

View attachment 796337


This would allow it to engage the ENTIRE PAF strike group including the F-16 fighter sweep at will.
View attachment 796338


The F-16 flight would still manage shots at the MKIs and M2ks to bring them down but would also be swatted like flies.

View attachment 796339

Even the Mirage flights returning and the JF-17 strike group will get mauled.
View attachment 796340



So , what has happened by the introduction of these assets is that aircraft will have to fly much lower so reducing their effective combat radius and loiter time. They will have to carry severe jammers otherwise most of the border airspace on the Indian side and half of Pakistani airspace is hostile for their host countries.

This means that:-
-LRSAM's change the whole equation for both sides in both strike and interception.
-Tactics which have been developed in decades, many out of them are usless now.
-LRSAM do act as strong deterrence against aerial advantures.

 

[arjunk]

@SQ8 is this game worth the money in your opinion?

 

[-=virus=-]

there's a steep learning curve and is not exactly a DCS like, no pretty graphics etc but super fun for military nerds if you just want to strategize and see scenarios play out.

 

[Sine Nomine]

Alright - since people @kursed had pointed out that the original scenario seemed rigged to give the LRSAMs an advantage. I just reran it with a few minor adjustments.

The doctrine for the Indian side was that it was to go weapons free as soon as the first strike was hit(H-4 hit on Narian or Naushera).

So the Mirage strike force was tasked to take a different route westward but otherwise the same altitude profile. Launching from the south west rather than a southern approach. The H-4 guidance aircraft too follow this approach and all made it back ok with decent internal fuel remaining.

The F-16 escort package too was tasked to fly at 2000ft all the way to the border.

The interesting aspect of this approach was that while with the original approach the simulated Indian aircraft would redirect and focus on the strike group, here they seemed to have no clue and happily loitered away.
View attachment 796456


The REK group with JF-17s too was not bothered inbound and by this time the trigger made ROE hostile pursuit for the Indian side but they were unable to bother the strike package instead starting a spat with the JF-17 escort.
View attachment 796457

Now at this time the S-400 at Adampur(elevation 800ft) was ROE free to engage all targets not positively identified as friendly and yet not a single missile left the ground. I took over and deliberately tried to get it to fire at everything and it would not fire. (FYI I had set the skill level for both LRSAMs as average so no inequality).
This same S-400 that was pumping out missile after missile at the F-16 flight at 20000ft was unable to make a meow at 2000ft???
It did manage to launch 1 missile finally at a F-16 but that went stupid after heading towards the north east. Was overall SA for the Indian side a factor?

BECAUSE - getting a targeting solution on something flying 50km closer at 15000ft is easier than something flying either same area at 2000ft or further out.

Oddly, as the computer(and not humans) were controlling both sides - the Indian M2Ks do try to engage the JF-17s and also the H-4 weapons again. This triggers the F-16s on the Pakistani side to start lobbing AMRAAMS even from 2000ft. The loft as they do and 7 AIM-120s vs 4 MKIs is not good math of which only one manages to make an AMRAAM dodger.

View attachment 796458

Now for basically shits and giggles I gave the Sihala based HQ-9 ROE free and it started pumping out missiles at the Mirages even as they ran towards Srinagar(does the Hq-9 loft??) and even with evasive maneuvering those mirages were brought down.

Finally, I let Alpha-1 with his Mig-21 get airborne and as soon as he crossed over Gulmarg heading towards sunset peak at minimum altitude(which in this case was 9000ft) trying to ambush the F-16 flight he had Aim-120s and HQ-9s launched at him. Frankly they could have launched the entire squadron and it would not have survived what was on the other side.
View attachment 796459


So, takeaways.

Unless the S-400 is placed closer(putting it under risk from even A-100 MBRL attacks) take off to low level flight is very doable and if lessons from the Iranians are taken on refueling at low level then the PAF should be ok to operate and perform decent SEAD operations too.

The HQ-9 placed at Sihala at 1500 ft which had SA from the SAAB and other assets is a freaking monster making anything but low level and NOE airspace over IOK a death zone. And this simulation was designed by western sources using their estimates and "bias".

Basically LRSAM's totally alters the equation for both sides,IAF would be having very tough time while operating in IOJK airspace,it's platforms would be constantly painted by hostile radars from both Pakistani and Chinese side.

PAF needs to work double time on SEAD/DEAD tactics,we need dedicated Sq's for performing this job.

 

[SQ8]

Basically LRSAM's totally alters the equation for both sides,IAF would be having very tough time while operating in IOJK airspace,it's platforms would be constantly painted by hostile radars from both Pakistani and Chinese side.

PAF needs to work double time on SEAD/DEAD tactics,we need dedicated Sq's for performing this job.

It does but at the same time there are things evolving where you will a paradigm shift in how the PAF & PA do their operations in coordination.
SEAD & DEAD operations are going to look very different along with CAS. There is going to be massive data and there will more and more burden placed on both PAF pilots and PA field commanders to be extremely agile in their decision making.
It will be imperative for them to be experts in multiple fields including EW and know exactly how to play their chess pieces.
To that effect the Indians arent sleeping either and their loyal wingman programs are focused on just that. In 15 years that massive MKI fleet will take a backseat as drone controller while Rafale's, Tejas Mk2s and AMCAs battle it out.
Frankly the MKI really has been a useless investment for them in the bigger picture but may live out its final years as force multiplying UCAV leads.

Can we add layering to the SAMs on both sides. Would it matter given the performance of HQ9 and S400?

It definitely would - both the HQ9 and S400 arent good at long range HIMAD engagements. At low level the HQ-17 and Akash/Derby MR excel and they will eat up the rest.

 

[Sine Nomine]

It does but at the same time there are things evolving where you will a paradigm shift in how the PAF & PA do their operations in coordination.

I hope they also completly sort out internal security also.

To that effect the Indians arent sleeping either and their loyal wingman programs are focused on just that. In 15 years that massive MKI fleet will take a backseat as drone controller while Rafale's, Tejas Mk2s and AMCAs battle it out.
Frankly the MKI really has been a useless investment for them in the bigger picture but may live out its final years as force multiplying UCAV leads.

I trust Bharatis and there ability to do f**k up's,what concerns me is uncle sam putting it's weight behind them.I realise that it's training imparted by US which has helped us a lot in keeping them on bay,afaik US is popping them as counter weight to China while training them to fight PLA,here i am sure that they won't fight China neither they have religious(something which plays important role in South Asia of today)motive,neither national desire to do so,but Pakistan is sworn enemy,it's nothing more than last fort of medieval Muslim Empires and to avenge"millennium of humiliation"it must be destroyed.Whatever US is teaching them is going to be directed against Pakistan down the road.

Su-30 is honestly speaking a good platform but Russian avionics in late 90's were not on par with their peers,to bring avionics on par with other 4th Gen platforms IAF cooked up Isareli,French and local systems to make "Raptor of East"which ended as failure,if i am not wrong they have not placed an order for new long range BVR's for it after 27th Feb 2019 events in which it was outgunned.

 

[Bilal.]

It does but at the same time there are things evolving where you will a paradigm shift in how the PAF & PA do their operations in coordination.
SEAD & DEAD operations are going to look very different along with CAS. There is going to be massive data and there will more and more burden placed on both PAF pilots and PA field commanders to be extremely agile in their decision making.
It will be imperative for them to be experts in multiple fields including EW and know exactly how to play their chess pieces.
To that effect the Indians arent sleeping either and their loyal wingman programs are focused on just that. In 15 years that massive MKI fleet will take a backseat as drone controller while Rafale's, Tejas Mk2s and AMCAs battle it out.
Frankly the MKI really has been a useless investment for them in the bigger picture but may live out its final years as force multiplying UCAV leads.

It definitely would - both the HQ9 and S400 arent good at long range HIMAD engagements. At low level the HQ-17 and Akash/Derby MR excel and they will eat up the rest.

Than it would be nice to see how it will play out if both Mid (LY80 and indian analogues) and Short (HQ7 and indian analogues) ranged SAMs are added.