Kazakhstan protests

[dBSPL]

Here's what I understood from the events so far: If Tokayev had not sent an official letter, this would not have changed anything. Russian soldiers would enter Kazakhstan anyway. Some tragic things if occur in a few Russian villages in Kazakhstan and the loss of border security between the two states could have provided the ground for a justified intervention within the framework of UN regulations. In Ukraine, Georgia and even Moldova, Russia more or less was able to bring together the conditions to act unilaterally.

I see countless accusations and insults about Tokayev in the Western media. They are calling him as as a dictator, and he accused of turning his back on the poverty of the people, and finally they accused of selling his country. No, I don't think any of them.

Maybe as a result of western NGOs or maybe a false flag operation, when the protests in the country suddenly got out of control and the country came to the brink of a civil war, he managed to protect the territorial integrity of the country, by making difficult decisions. As a matter of fact, while the events could not be stopped with an army of 110,000 troops, the events were suppressed even before the force of approximately 4000 CSTO completely entered the country. There is likely to be a danger that many reforms since 2017 will be repealed (which most of you probably remember the rhetorical wars between Russia and Kazakhstan over the past two years, except those with fish memory,). Honestly, that much cost can be accepted for what is salvaged.

 

[Paul2]

They should make their own imo.. Why not create one from North Korea, Pakistan, IEA and China...

Nobody will join into a military block with China in its sane mind, same with Russia, except Russia had good luck finding people not in sane mind.

 

[nang2]

Nobody will join into a military block with China in its sane mind, same with Russia, except Russia had good luck finding people not in sane mind.

To attract any potential military ally, China needs to convincingly beat up some other sizeable country as a demonstration of power. None of the conflicts since 1949 that China got herself involved in has demonstrated that China is a verifiable military lord.

 

[Titanium100]

Here's what I understood from the events so far: If Tokayev had not sent an official letter, this would not have changed anything. Russian soldiers would enter Kazakhstan anyway. Some tragic things if occur in a few Russian villages in Kazakhstan and the loss of border security between the two states could have provided the ground for a justified intervention within the framework of UN regulations. In Ukraine, Georgia and even Moldova, Russia more or less was able to bring together the conditions to act unilaterally.

I see countless accusations and insults about Tokayev in the Western media. They are calling him as as a dictator, and he accused of turning his back on the poverty of the people, and finally they accused of selling his country. No, I don't think any of them.

Maybe as a result of western NGOs or maybe a false flag operation, when the protests in the country suddenly got out of control and the country came to the brink of a civil war, he managed to protect the territorial integrity of the country, by making difficult decisions. As a matter of fact, while the events could not be stopped with an army of 110,000 troops, the events were suppressed even before the force of approximately 4000 CSTO completely entered the country. There is likely to be a danger that many reforms since 2017 will be repealed (which most of you probably remember the rhetorical wars between Russia and Kazakhstan over the past two years, except those with fish memory,). Honestly, that much cost can be accepted for what is salvaged.

This is an slight exaggeration of events..

Nobody will join into a military block with China in its sane mind, same with Russia, except Russia had good luck finding people not in sane mind.

The Russians have proven to be sensible allies and the same with China atleast in the Pakistan historical file they have good track record.. Making treaties is about upholding them at all costs it bonds someone

To attract any potential military ally, China needs to convincingly beat up some other sizeable country as a demonstration of power. None of the conflicts since 1949 that China got herself involved in has demonstrated that China is a verifiable military lord.

We will beat up India in order to carve open things rest assured.. We need a sacrificial lamb and we have one

 

[Paul2]

Or Maybe they feel uncomfortable with the Collective Security Treaty Organization alliance CSTO

Having CSTO intervene in Kazakhstan is in reality weakening CSTO, and Russia as its core.

It's a minor victory for both the West, and for China.

See, Russia will never be able to completely "conquer" Kazakhstan because it's a very, very, very, very, very messy country.

Anybody trying to conquer it are no better than trying to conquer Afghanistan. Conquer it at your own peril.

I believe the worst outcome, and the biggest nightmare for Moscow is Kazakhstan becoming something like Yemen now with Hooties: they can't pull out, and they can't win.

Hooties singlehandedly turned Saudi's fearsome military image into a joke, and all its prestige, and intimidation is gone because a few thousand donkey riders managed to counter $46B military budget.

Not only they stopped the ground invasion, and turned Saudis back, they even returned fire by their ghetto ICBMs, and drones right into their capital.

Showing the world Saudi being defenceless in front of 10000 donkey riders did bigger damage to SA than any actual attack.

 

[Titanium100]

Having CSTO intervene in Kazakhstan is in reality weakening CSTO, and Russia as its core.

It's a minor victory for both the West, and for China.

See, Russia will never be able to completely "conquer" Kazakhstan because it's a very, very, very, very, very messy country.

Anybody trying to conquer it are no better than trying to conquer Afghanistan. Conquer it at your own peril.

I believe the worst outcome, and the biggest nightmare for Moscow is Kazakhstan becoming something like Yemen now with Hooties: they can't pull out, and they can't win.

Hooties singlehandedly turned Saudi's fearsome military image into a joke, and all its prestige, and intimidation is gone because a few thousand donkey riders managed to counter $46B military budget.

Quite an exaggeration on the Houthis part it is a civil war where KSA has done limited air-raids on them.. I don't understand why people assume KSA has rolled in it's armed forces. It holds 80% of the country I mean Saudi proxies hold that with limited saudi air-raids.. The Houthis are just weak and the element they are fighting are strong inside Yemen hence Saudi Arabia doesn't need to do much.. This is not another Vietnam or Afghanistan situation but rather Taliban vs Taliban scenario completely different.. They could even cease their air raids nothing will change on the ground

 

[Paul2]

This is not another Vietnam or Afghanistan situation but rather Taliban vs Taliban scenario completely different.. They could even cease their air raids nothing will change on the ground

This is true, but Saudi military image will be destroyed anyways now.

 

[MH.Yang]

Russia is a resource country and China is an industrial country, the two countries are natural allies. Economic relations determine political relations, and political relations determine military relations.
China's influence in Kazakhstan is enough to protect China's interests, there is no need to weaken Russia's influence.
It is a general trend for Uighurs to move to eastern provinces, anyone likes to move to more economically developed areas, they won't want to go to Kazakhstan.

 

[Titanium100]

This is true, but Saudi military image will be destroyed anyways now.

Some people just love to troll the saudis but ground reality has always been complete opposite they have only few advisors on the ground and have never done a ground incursion to this day. They could technically speaking depopulate the whole area at will if they wanted that approch which is not in line with what they seek they are arab nationalists and don't want to exterminate the population despite the political difference. They want a political settlement and contain them. There is no reason in commiting genocide on the Zayids..

 

[Paul2]

They want a political settlement and contain them.

Do you think somebody as crazy to attack a $46B military on a donkey with a rusted sabre thinks of a "political settlement?"

That "political settlement" is more realistic even with Tehran itself, than Hootsies. Similarly with Iraqi militias, but with them Saudis were wise enough not to touch them even with a 10 feet pole.

 

[Titanium100]

That "political settlement" is more realistic even with Tehran itself, than Hootsies

The houthis want settlement and know they can't win militarily it is outside of the realm of possibilities for them and they don't want to remain in that hell forever. If the Saudis want them gone they will just ring the bells of war thru out their country these elements will be out quickly and distant past by just escalating the escalation ladder by doing massive incursions from all sides

 

[Paul2]

The houthis want settlement and know they can't win militarily it is outside of the realm of possibilities for them. If the Saudis want them gone they will just ring the bells of war thru out their country these elements will be out quickly and distant past by just escalating the escalation ladder by doing massive incursions from all sides

They can't win for sure, but Saudis did escalate so much already, and still no result.

Hootsies are like a mosquito which keeps biting, and biting somebody in the dark. You keep flogging your hands in the air, but can't crush it, only to make it fly away for a few seconds, and it keeps chasing you.

They harder you try to smash that mosquito, the more embarrassing it looks from the side.

 

[ARMalik]

Anyways, there is now information which points to a power struggle between existing President Kassym-Jomart Kemelevich Tokayev and Former President Nazarbayev. Tokayev has successfully taken control of the government and has dismissed Nazarbayev and his men from the country's Security Council. Apparently he had Russian backing.

The X President Nazarbayev had always put hurdles to economic integration with Russia and Central Asian states, and also Chinese BRI. He had played Western cards by inviting Western agencies. He is now out of the door and things will settle down very, very quickly.

I say good outcome as the whole region including Pakistan are heading towards formation of EU like block, and Russia and China are removing all hurdles before US has the chance to do anything.

A bit more update on this.

- Although there was power tussle between Nazarbayev and Tokayev, it now appears that US wanted to take advantage of the situation and actually had key security and government personnel on its books. One of them notably was Kazakhstan's former intelligence chief Karim Massimov, who has now been arrested on suspicion of treason.

-President Tokayev possibly survived an ASSASSINATION attempt ! One of his close friends, died in the assassination.

-Apparently Karim Massimov's people at the major airports asked Airport security people to move away from their positions, the intention was for the so called protestors aka mercenaries to take control of the airports so that Russia could NOT dispatch its troops to help out !! However, the security faction turned out to be LOYAL to President Tokayev, and they refused and shot and killed at Mercenaries trying to take over the airport.

-The so called protestors aka mercenaries were actually speaking ARABIC, and they beheaded many security people !

-There is high probability of these mercenaries actually getting their training in TURKEY !!

-The situation is now almost BACK TO NORMAL and these mercenaries have either been killed, arrested or being hunted down as we speak !!!

 

[Titanium100]

did escalate so much already

They have never esclated it.. This is what most people miss out on which is the critical part. They have not done any ground incursion on them yet. Everything you see is local v local. If they want to they can gas them and depopulate the whole area at will. The local foe facing them from the southern part is equally determined hence they never had to do any incursions except limited amount of air-raids on them

 

[Paul2]

A bit more update on this.

- Although there was power tussle between Nazarbayev and Tokayev, it now appears that US wanted to take advantage of the situation and actually had key security and government personnel on its books. One of them notably was Kazakhstan's former intelligence chief Karim Massimov, who has now been arrested on suspicion of treason.

-President Tokayev possibly survived an ASSASSINATION attempt ! One of his close friends, died in the assassination.

-Apparently Karim Massimov's people at the major airports asked Airport security people to move away from their positions, the intention was for the so called protestors aka mercenaries to take control of the airports so that Russia could NOT dispatch its troops to help out !! However, the security faction turned out to be LOYAL to President Tokayev, and they refused and shot and killed at Mercenaries trying to take over the airport.

-The so called protestors aka mercenaries were actually speaking ARABIC, and they beheaded many security people !

-There is high probability of these mercenaries actually getting their training in TURKEY !!

-The situation is now almost BACK TO NORMAL and these mercenaries have either been killed, arrested or being hunted down as we speak !!!

The first part is somewhat true, but the second part is LOL.

The Kazakhstani news speak of "20000 Arab terrorists from Afghanistan" materialising from thin air. This is beyond silly.

If they actually did, that news commented would've been few feet under the ground before he could open his mouth.