PAF experimenting with its prized creation and risking the whole thunder program and production schedule of block III which you are suggesting is very unlikely. IMHO lack of any update/news on Block III is by choice and not due to any complication/experimentation in the development cycle.
If PAF is experimenting with the WS-13 then It would make more sense that PAF is trying out a new engine on the side without interrupting the Block III production run.
JF-17 is a joint project and as much as the Chinese help us in the development, there is absolutely no reason for them to not try and push in an experimental piece of technology if it suits them. If it meets the set parameters, fine, if it doesn't, China can and will likely try some back channel persuasion. They have their interests which is only fair but to not realize such a thing on our part would be naïve. PAF would be smart to just stand its ground and not budge under 'strategic' interests like this.
'Choice' is a relative term, we probably do not want to put JF17 block 3 back in covers for a year+ deliberately by choice after announcing a test flight. We may choose to wait for better tech like Engine, a more refined radar or weapons package but if we truly had a choice, we'd probably have a workable better engine put in today, I hope it makes sense. Every block is a huge undertaking/commitment. Chinese are likely going to finish development of the engine (that they have invested over a decade in) regardless. PAF consider it if it met the performance and reliability parameters set but if those weren't met, we can't rule out soft nudges from Chinese on PAF's shoulders in this regard.
I personally have not seen any reason to believe PAC is doing all of the body work, i have a few reasons for this:
its a big deal- we would have seen an announcement
it would require a reduction in overall production capacity or an increase in production equipment or facilities- neither of which we have seen.
Overall, PAC may have increased their share- we have no way of knowing- however, 100% is very unlikely.
Plus, would Chinese just hand over 100% of production after splitting the project from the start till now? Do we know China has no intention of co-exporting JF17. What motivation would Chinese have left if PAF starts reducing avenues where Chinese can extract benefit from the project.
There is no delay. A few Block-3 jets will be made public soon. Not too different to when PAF showed about 10 x JF-17Bs a few months ago.
That is a bold claim to be making, I am wondering if it is just based on pure belief/dogma or actual credible information.
Pakistan may be bog down due to the non-availability of the engine in time. Pakistan should complete the rest of the work and the engine change may be left for the time of its availability in the future. The delay in the production of JF17 B3 will negate the edge Pakistan is looking over its rivals with the advent of block 3. The resource available for block 3 will go to the other purchases and momentous attained with the in-house production of thunders will further diminish with every day lost in the wait. Pakistan should look for alternatives as intentional delay may result in some sort of denial and exploitation of the need.
Any project is run in parallel steps for independent processes but if something like say flight software and testing requires the final engine, then there is no way PAF can speed this up.
Also, if you have an enemies outside your door with swords (read Rafale) and you have a dull kitchen knife (exaggerated comparison for understanding) in hand, would you go out with the knife or wait a few for your brother to pull out a sword from the cupboard and take the time to sharpen it to give you a better chance. So are we negating our edge or improving our chances?
India has a highly competitive fighter in Rafale with avionics and weapons package (when all configured and ready) superior to what we field right now. India won't be ready with its 2 squadrons for two years approximately which gives us enough breathing room to wait and hopefully try and get as close to achieving parity with the best India fields.
Commitment to a block of 50 jets is not a small undertaking. Engines will change in at least 2000-3000 hours of flight time which may be a decade away so do you think it is smart to wait a year for a better engine or put in an older engine that will stay in for 10 years! Remember, each engine roughly costs more than a couple of million dollars.
If it's about two years delay then we can buy two squadrons of j10c.
Even if we buy 2 squadrons, J10C will take at least 2-3 years to deliver and get integrated. It was rumored PAF had an agreement in principle to purchase J10C back in Musharraf days but then Chinese wanted PAF to fulfill its commitment of ~150 JF17s which seems to have been met. This whole hypothesis might be baloney but it still makes sense for PAF to get J10C for its multiple advantages.
- Better range and payload capacity.
- It gives PAF some counterweight to US arm twisting wrt US and F16 parts and supplies. J10C won't be 'as' leashed and prone to strategic embargoes (by the US) as the F16. In a potential conflict, US won't have as much leverage to influence PAF's ability if we added another fighter at par with our current fleet of F16s if not better.
- It gives PAF something India cannot purchase or gain access to (read DACT) as the F21/F16.
- India hates F21 (read F16) with a passion because of its flagship status with PAF. Just imagine for a second India chooses F16 for its MMRCA where it gains complete ToT. Where would that put PAF. PAF did amazing with JF17 and reducing dependence on expensive western jets, now J10C would be another step towards that.
- China would like nothing more than a large force like PAF choosing a 4+ gen fighter like J10C so to win that deal, they might throw in a really good package for us, something we cannot possibly get from anywhere else at the moment.
Russia is seriously pissed about Pakistan backing Azerbaijan against Armenia in Azerbaijan's Karabakh region. They won't supply RD-93MA to punish Pakistan. So no JF-17 Block 3 for the foreseeable future.
Russia block JF-17 Block 3 to Pakistan is just as bad as US block F-35 to Turkey.
- Would you be able to provide some information to back your claim. Why would Russia be focusing on Pakistan when it is Turkey, and more importantly physical neighbor of both Armenia and Azerbaijan, its larger strategic defense partner that is indirectly involved through its equipment in the conflict. We do not have enough weight in this fight so some statements from MoFA would hardly have Russia pissed off enough to cancel a potential long term deal that has nothing to do with the actual conflict. Pakistan has not been and will not be part of the conflict militarily.
Probably a better investment would be working with the Turks to buy their composite production techniques and applying it to the JF-17 Airframe, while we are waiting on the Engine and AESA radar.
While more expensive upfront it will help reduce maintenance and lifecycle costs in the long run, and make the JF-17 a better export prospect; “F-35 class airframe”. A good project in anticipation of Project AZM. A lighter airframe could compensate for continued use of the standard RD-93, until the RD-93MA is fully certified
We may be able to learn from Turkish but its far fetched applying composites on JF17 on our own. Design and fabrication largely lies with China and PAF doesn't have the capability yet or even if it builds it, it will be way way down in the future for it to have any tangible impact on the JF17 project. Such capabilities take years if not decades to build. Imagine we develop such a capability within a day by some magic, even then you cannot just swap parts on a jet like you can replace sheet metal hood and spoiler with carbon fiber ones to rice up a car. More importantly, the stakeholders with their %age share in the JF17 project are already defined for JF17, we cannot change that without putting the entire project at risk.
Come on Thunder Block 3
