Is the country collapse imminent?

[Imran Khan]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1619640324917456896

 

[PakFactor]

The youth hates the army (14-25 yrs)
This generation will also have the toughest time ever(record inflation in last 4 decades). Never has the inflation persisted so high for so long

Will this lead to severe civil military strain

https://www.facebook.com/reel/561817679089805?s=yWDuG2&fs=e


Normally that's not a big deal but we all know the saying

"For good or bad, it's is the Pakistan military that has prevented the country collapse"

Hence the biggest threat to Pakistan is the youth..if exploitated this may lead to either boom/reinvention
Or
Collapse of the nation

The establishment had a central role in this country's state from day one. The Native American's always believed that within every soul, there is a good and bad, and the one you feed the most will win. So time after time, this establishment always chose the worst, low-class khandani families who one wouldn't even allow to clean one's toilet bowl as PMs, Presidents, etc. On top of allowing back-handed deals to be made, they leave the country and cause more chaos once out of reach, and have selective memory lapses when it comes to punishing individuals who bad mouth the establishment, case in point when the susral ka kutta (Capt. Safdar) was barking at the army recently no action, PTI speaks gand ma ag lag gai.

Also, the other significant facilitator of this is those jahil kuri chod PDM voters. No amount of words will satisfy my hate and disgust for them being alive and wasting oxygen. I would have gladly taken you to the gas chambers and kept the Jews live. But, at least, they bring some value to humanity.

The totality of everything has led you here, and now the chicken eggs are hatching.

PS: The biggest fita ma I would love to give to PAF for flying Dar's as* back home when he escaped on false claims, etc.

 

[epebble]

I think it may balkanize like the USSR,

For a differing perspective:

Future of Pakistan

Pakistan is imploding, and its future is not breakup or collapse but more violence and chaos.

www.dawn.com

 

[Olympus81]

There is something called divine retribution.

When you bring crook (Dar), corrupt (Nawaz), money launderer (Shahbaz and family), thief (Zardari), traitor (PTM), murderer (Karim Bijar murderer of Jokhio) back then things will go awry.

Continue making deals and deflect criticism. This is the result of games of thrones being played and not ceding space to allow organic growth of the political system.

 

[One_Nation]

Post-default Pakistan: a scenario
Biggest cost will be social unrest in context of income and wealth inequality

ISLAMABAD:
While it is unlikely that Pakistan would default on its debt, not due to the economic health and cost but rather the anticipated social and strategic backlash that the stakeholders are concerned with. However, in case of default, following is an anticipated scenario.

First day: It would be total standstill in the country except the national media running continuous news and analyses and international media carrying this as a major story. For the government, it would be an emergency situation and they would try to comprehend and manage the situation.

International development partners and donors would start working on their approach towards Pakistan, depending on the size of their respective debt or support.

First week: Markets and businesses, getting out of the temporary standstill, will start feeling the heat and facing the signals of this default and we will start seeing the indications of an economic meltdown in the form of business closures, job cuts, etc.

The government would try to manage this situation by controlling the perception in media and the opinions related to default. Contacts with lenders and other development partners will be initiated in order to calm them down.

Signs of social unrest may start appearing, mainly due to a disproportionate hike in prices, particularly of imported goods. Mismanagement or low stocks of petrol may exacerbate the chaos.

First month: It is quite likely that economic meltdown will start manifesting its impact with the cessation of imports, ban on development expenditure, reduction in essential public sector expenditure, business closures and huge layoffs from industrial and services sectors.

Due to uncertainty, many of the citizens would try to get their savings and investments out of the banking and financial system, and it would further exacerbate the situation, including the closure of some of the financial institutions.

On the governance side, there may be a new narrative to find an alternative government or governance model that could withstand such a situation. The incumbent government may not be able to manage the perception, social unrest and strategic positioning resulting from the default.

First quarter: The first quarter would be quite challenging in terms of assessing the magnitude of the loss that the economy would feel due to this default.

More importantly, economic pain and social unrest would be felt widely and provide an opportunity for some of the politicians to build upon this unrest and manifest their power through harnessing the negative sentiment and urging public uprising.

On the economic front, there will be a huge flight of capital, whatever would have been left. We would see an overbooking of flights towards Dubai and similar destinations with passengers fully utilising their allowance to carry foreign exchange. Prices would be out of control and the rupee would be depreciated considerably within the first quarter.

First year: GDP of Pakistan would shrink significantly. While some of the industries and services would resume their activities, import-dependent sectors would have to wait much longer. Due to a considerable hike in energy prices, the cost of production will go very high and unsustainable in many sectors.

Within first year, there could be change of government, or even governance model. It would be time to redraw the economic governance system without which it would be impossible to get out of the crisis.

International partners would probably start focusing back by seeing some of the possibilities and pathways to bail Pakistan out of such a crisis. However, this support would be with huge conditionalities, including from friendly countries. Renegotiations with donors and lenders for getting some lifeline would be almost one-sided with very little leeway for Pakistan.

First generation: This could be the first generation that would see the first debt default by Pakistan. It would face a serious consequence in terms of loss of trust and hope in the economic system and opportunities.

It would be particularly harmful for the youth who were ready to enter into the job market or the businesses or entrepreneurship. They would start looking beyond borders, resulting in yet another brain drain.

The only saving factor is that due to global economic slowdown, the usual destination markets for such brains may not be welcoming enough. In any case, it may not be out of place to say that we might see a lost generation due to this debt default crisis.

While the economic cost of default is quite significant, with right mitigation policies and recovery mechanisms, we might see some hope or light at the end of the tunnel to get back to normal in a few years.

However, the biggest cost or loss would be social unrest in the context of existing income and wealth inequality. This may lead towards a serious situation and become an internal security crisis. Given the situation on our borders, and hard-line forces already operating within the country, it may become much deeper and chaotic than one could anticipate.

Therefore, it is not just the economic cost of default that we need to pay attention to, it is also the social and internal security cost that we have to be ready for. Moreover, it would be not a short-term cost or phenomenon but quite long term and deep rooted, with slow and painful recovery.

In this context, I still believe that it is less likely that Pakistan would default as internal and external stakeholders anticipate this social and security costs, in addition to economic, and they would do their best to avoid such a scenario.

The writer is an international economist

Post-default Pakistan: a scenario (tribune.com.pk)

The economic consequences can be predicted but no one can predict social consequences e.g. if important people will be dragged out to streets and lynched.

 

[Enigma SIG]

Batmans of GHQ will be he first one to run out of the country when it happens. And it is going to happen sooner than you think. Bajwa already sold the nuclear assets and they were ushered out under the garb of evacuation of foreigners from Pakistan.

 

[El Sidd]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1619640324917456896

Atheist Malang also suffers from the same disorder.

@Signalian The ideology of Sufis regularly get posed this question when it borders atheism in many of her forms.

 

[SabzShaheen]

“Good times create weak men. Weak men create hard times. Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times.”

 

[SoulSpokesman]

There seems to be a lot of hai tauba on what happens if Pak defaults. Answer is: Nothing beyond what is already being seen, because for all practical purposes Pak has already defaulted. Most of the debts falling due (which are from brotherly Gulf countries) are being repaid by rollover of loans because those lenders know that not doing so means they have to recognise a default, make disclosures and presumably make provisions on the loans. The rest of the loan book-bonds, loans from Commercial Banks are being repaid with whatever little cash is left.

For the rest, the GOP has only permitting as much imports as it has cash by way of exports, remittances etc That is showing up in shrinking imports and deficits, spiralling prices, lower availability of essentials and shutdown of factories which are using imported inputs.

We can see a tame surrender to IMF diktat which will result in IMF loan disbursement followed by loans from brotherly countries from the Gulf and from the taller than mountain friend. Pakiland will experience what we call the Hindu rate of growth for the next couple of years and after that, Inshallah, will be back on its two feet after that.

Regards

 

[truthseeker2010]

If they bring back IK this year, stabilise the political environment with healthy competition (not sharifs/bhuttos), restore the love for the army by giving a legitimate reason for the current disaster then that's the only way to get things back on track.

It's a shame that the army plays a singular pivotal and centre role in this country's stability and security - yet it is also doing things which are making it be hated.

The damage the establishment has done to Pakistan currently - not even India/Afg with all it's efforts could do.

Bring back, that is core problem, why should army install anyone, at most if army can now do a favour to the country would be free and fair election.

This is the problem, but the irony or lust of power is that the army don't recognize this. They think that the civilians are the problem be it ordinary or powerful.

The damage is not current, it has evolved with time for the worst. Now that shit has hit the fan, neither the firefighting is doing anything nor people are taking it. So the damage is only worsening.

 

[nahtanbob]

I do not see a collapse - as long as remittances and textile exports are maintained
there can be disruption of imports and impact on consumption

 

[AlKardai]

We will not collapse.

“Good times create weak men. Weak men create hard times. Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times.”

We’ve been at the weak men creating hard times part, for the past 30 odd years

 

[villageidiot]

If they bring back IK this year,

They don't need to bring him back. They need to mind their fking business.

stabilise the political environment with healthy competition (not sharifs/bhuttos),

There is none.

restore the love for the army by giving a legitimate reason for the current disaster

There is no legitimate reason. They didn't like that someone wanted a piece of the pie. Nothing short of an explicit apology is how they can set this right, but we all know they will break the country into a dozen pieces and rule over smaller fiefdoms rather than apologize and remain in their place.

It's a shame that the army plays a singular pivotal and centre role in this country's stability and security - yet it is also doing things which are making it be hated.

Maybe that's where we get it wrong. The aren't interested in the country's stability and security any further than their own selfish interests require them to be. Soon as their interests were threatened, they did the needful

The damage the establishment has done to Pakistan currently - not even India/Afg with all it's efforts could do.

Not in a million years.

What about 224 million people? 'Country' is not just an irregular piece of land with a different color from its neighbors on a map.

We deserve whatever comes our way.

 

[Bengal71]

No

 

[Olympus81]

Pakistan government is collapsing, hasn’t collapsed as yet. There is still time to course correct but time is running out fast.

Pakistan public do not pay taxes and the most wealthy sectors of the society are outside the tax bracket (real estate and agriculture land).

This might be a bitter pill to swallow but Pakistan will need to follow IMF’s diktat for its long term wellness which might include slashing of the defence budget.