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Pakistan is on the edge. Should India be worried?

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Pakistan is on the edge. Should India be worried?​


Pakistan's former prime minister Imran Khan (R) addresses his supporters during an anti-government march towards capital Islamabad, demanding early elections, in Gujranwala on November 1, 2022
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The arrest of the former prime minister Imran Khan on charges of corruption sparked violent clashes
Soutik Biswas

By Soutik Biswas

During a trip to India many years back, a leading US-based specialist on South Asia had a conversation with a local analyst which he says still resonates with him.

"If Pakistan fails, we need to make sure it doesn't take us down with it," the expert told Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre think tank in Washington.

In recent weeks, Pakistan has been convulsed by political and economic crises. The arrest of former prime minister Imran Khan on charges of corruption sparked violent clashes across the country, which is also reeling from high inflation and dismal growth, and in danger of defaulting. Mr Khan's escalating confrontation with the army - a prominent player in Pakistani politics - which the ousted leader has even charged with trying to murder him.

"When your rival neighbour, a nation that's volatile even as the best of times, is experiencing severe political stress, bouts of large-scale unrest, and especially concerns about the cohesiveness with the army leadership, then you should be worried," Mr Kugelman says.

"It's not that Pakistan's churn could spill over into India, but more so that the churn could distract Pakistan from keeping control over things that could pose grave risks to India - like India-focussed militants."

An Indian soldier on the de-facto India-Pakistan border - a 2021 truce has kept things under control
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An Indian soldier on the de-facto India-Pakistan border - a 2021 truce has kept things under control

The countries have fought three wars since they became independent nations in 1947. All but one were over Kashmir. In 2019, India launched strikes in Pakistani territory following a militant attack on Indian troops in Kashmir. After the attacks, the two countries had come "close" to a nuclear war, former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo claimed in his recent memoir. But a new border truce concluded in 2021 has kept things under control.

The past offers some clues. The turmoil in Pakistan in 1971 led to a bloody subcontinental war and the creation of Bangladesh. In 2008, the movement against Pervez Musharraf's military rule came to an end and the leader suffered defeat at the polls, months later militants linked to Pakistan attacked India's western city of Mumbai.

But even going by recent history, the ongoing crisis is more worrying for India, says Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador and a scholar at the Hudson Institute in Washington DC, and the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi. "The political chaos is happening at a time when Pakistan is facing its worst possible economic crisis and the establishment appears to be weaker and divided from within," he says.

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party activists and supporters of former Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan, clash with police during a protest against the arrest of their leader in Peshawar on May 10, 2023
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Mr Khan's supporters have clashed with the police across the country

Experts like Mr Kugelman rule out two extreme scenarios: the first is Pakistan reaching out to India to explore reconciliation, though "it is another matter that India wouldn't be interested". And the second is Pakistan encouraging India-focussed militants to stage an attack across the border. "The last thing Pakistan can afford at this point is another conflict, or even a fresh crisis with India," Mr Kugelman says.

But what should worry New Delhi is a situation that falls between the two extremes, say experts. That is one in "which Pakistan, distracted and overwhelmed by internal issues, lacks the bandwidth to keep a lid on any type of cross-border risk", says Mr Kugelman.

Avinash Paliwal, who teaches politics and international studies at SOAS University of London, echoes a similar sentiment. He says the twin crises in Pakistan can hurt the ceasefire on the border.

"Either as a distraction, or to reassert control in the army by signalling strength on Kashmir, the Pakistani army chief has few reasons to encourage cross-border activism. This risk stands despite resource limitations, because the guarantor of the ceasefire in Pakistan is severely embattled," says Mr Paliwal.

"In itself, a ceasefire breakdown is not a strategic threat to India, but in combination with the ongoing military standoff with China, it becomes more dangerous." (Relations between India and China have been worsening. The neighbours have long running territorial disputes along their disputed land border.)


Activists of Jamiat-ul-Ulama-i-Islam and supporters of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) chant slogans as they leave for a rally held in Islamabad to protest against the judiciary's alleged undue facilitation to former Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan, in Peshawar on May 15, 2023.


A coalition of parties has blamed former prime minister Khan for poor governance and mismanagement of the economy

Many believe India needs to shake off its "obsession" with Pakistan, and not be overly worried by the crisis overwhelming the struggling neighbour. There also appears to be a sense among many Indians of the crisis "serving Pakistan right", bordering on schadenfreude or the pleasure one feels from the someone's else's misfortune. After all, they say, India's economy is 10 times bigger than Pakistan - and the troubled neighbour's economy is smaller than Maharashtra, India's richest state.

Such a reaction is "perfectly predictable", says Mr Kugelman. "Nations want to see rivals squirm, and especially when those rivals have sponsored cross-border attacks and provoked wars against them. There is also a special satisfaction in India derived from watching the struggles of the Pakistani military, after many years of watching that military sponsoring terrorists that target India."

"But if India is taking pleasure in all this while also being complacent about the dangers emanating from Pakistan, then that's dangerous as well," says Mr Kugelman.

It is true, as Mr Haqqani says, that it is not "in Indian interests to have a nuclear-armed neighbour in the throes of economic instability and political chaos". However, commentators like Sharat Sabharwal, a former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan, do not believe that "Pakistan's collapse is imminent; and instead it is likely to continue its messy journey as before." Also, as Mr Paliwal says, Pakistan's case "makes a good case against ideological and religious extremes" and the need to reign in religious nationalism.

With Pakistan closer to the edge, what should India do? "Perhaps the best case scenario in the circumstances would be for the status quo in the currently minimal bilateral relationship to continue and the ceasefire on the Line of Control [the de facto border] holds," notes TCA Raghavan, a former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan.

Others like Mr Haqqani believe India is adopting a "wait and watch approach", keeping a close eye on the border. The key is not to be caught unprepared. "India still needs to be careful not to let its guard down," says Mr Kugelman.


 
Many Pakistanis here (esp Fanboys) have a perception that Indians/Hindus hate Pakistanis etc etc

Just from a personal experience...i am telling you . I am a so called Dothead .. and when Peshawar attacks happened
My mother literally cried saying what these small children did..

Now also when we see news of hyper inflation in pakistan, my mom gets sad and says how do pakistani homemakers manage their homes in tight budget.... As a home maker she has concern for her pakistani counterparts

You will not believe one more thing
Ppl keep crying Shiv sena ,RSS whole day


There is a saree dealer in our pehchaan..she sells pakistani suits and dress materials,kurtis etc.. those which are sold via Dubai etc ..

There is a small time Shiv sena leader (Municipality level aka Nazim level).. he bought 4 lakhs worth of Pakistani dress materials for his daughters wedding...

Some for his family some for gifting in shaadi len-den..
 
India has to be prepared as best as it can for all three situations vis-a-vis Pakistan. A strong Pakistan, chaotic Pakistan and a struggling Pakistan. Irrespective the state it is in our job is to be vigilant. As the saying goes appreciate the situation and not situate the appreciation.
 
Peshawar like attack is round the corner which will be blamed on India. Once that happens, all Pak political parties will be ‘forced’ to come together and resolve the ongoing issues for the sake of ‘nation first’ thingy and army will be loved again.

I’m such a scenario, Indians will simply quote Hillary Clinton who - while referring to Pak policy makers - had said ‘you can’t keep snakes in your backyard and expect them to only bite your neighbors!’

So it’s gonna be business as usual.
 
India has to be prepared as best as it can for all three situations vis-a-vis Pakistan. A strong Pakistan, chaotic Pakistan and a struggling Pakistan. Irrespective the state it is in our job is to be vigilant. As the saying goes appreciate the situation and not situate the appreciation.
Would like a strong , civilian State in Pakistan, that can keep in check those nutheads in Af- regions
 
What happens to Imran Khan will be a non event to the rest of the world, including India.

IF IK regains power, it will have to be with military tacit support (=backing off). He can claim democracy won.

If IK loses, PMLN/PDM already in power, and with military backing - can claim democracy won, because they won the motion for no-confidemce again IK.

There is no scenario where the pakistani military loses its political clout and domination.

It is only the economy that suffers and so the general public suffer even more. When that goes on for a while, I suspect the Pakistani military will once again try to resume cross border terrorism in Kashmir and India should just be prepared for stopping that.
 
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