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Is Pakistan shifting its India policy?

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By M Ilyas Khan
BBC News, Islamabad

Some say it is capitulation, others call it a bold new start.

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Pakistan faces a mix of peace moves and bilateral rivalry​

But all agree that Pakistan's admission that the conspiracy to attack the Indian city of Mumbai last year was "partly" hatched on its soil indicates a major shift in its approach to national security.

Pakistan's security establishment has been widely accused by official and unofficial circles around the world of having had a role in several "terrorist" attacks in India and Afghanistan.

On the home front, analysts and political commentators have often accused it of using the militant infrastructure to manipulate domestic politics.

But this is the first time the country has admitted that its territory has been used for an international act of "terrorism" and that too in India, its arch-enemy.

What could be the reason behind this apparent change of heart?

'Linked to Kashmir'

Analysts known for their pro-establishment views are blaming the country's nascent political regime of giving in to Indian threats of surgical strikes against militant targets in Pakistan.

They believe a nuclear-armed Pakistan can never be militarily defeated by India, and yet it has gone overboard in making concessions that are unlikely to put an end to India's demands to do more in curbing militancy.

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There is still much resentment in Pakistan over India's role in Kashmir

These analysts are convinced that militancy in India is related to that country's "forceful occupation" of Kashmir and the grievances of its large Muslim population.

They fear that this Pakistani "capitulation" may hurt its cause in Kashmir, which is disputed by India and Pakistan.

Others point out that the Pakistani admission has come at a time when the new US special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke, is travelling in the region.

They believe the Americans have been forcing Pakistan to "show results" in its Mumbai investigations, as this may prove to be a catalyst for unravelling militant networks in Afghanistan.

Their argument is that a cash-strapped Pakistan, which largely depends on US - or US-inspired - civil and military aid, is fast running out of options.

But one question which most political analysts around the world would be asking in coming days is: is Pakistan's powerful security establishment fully on-board on this?

Lethal attacks

Barring some brief intervals, Pakistan has been ruled directly or indirectly by the military since its inception in 1947.

As such, it has gradually transformed from a democratic republic to a security state having interests that are often at odds with those of its neighbours as well as its own civil society.

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Pakistan took a long time to admit the Mumbai attackers trained in Karachi

Instead of playing into the economic dynamics of the region, it has ended up with a network of Islamist militants that has somehow helped further its security interests.

Lashkar-e-Taiba, which Pakistan has now blamed for the Mumbai attacks, is widely known to have been floated in mid-1990s as an alternative to Kashmiri rebel groups that wanted a greater say in how to conduct the insurgency.

Another militant group, Jaish-e-Mohammad, is seen in a similar light.

Both groups have the reputation of following orders from elements in Pakistan, and are never known to have worked at odds with the Pakistani "security interests".

Significantly, these two groups are known to have carried out the most lethal attacks inside India, and to a lesser extent in Afghanistan.

But the image of India as an enemy is often not shared by the country's politicians who, when in control, have tended to work for regional peace.

More recently, President Asif ALi Zardari ruffled many a feather in the Pakistani establishment when he stated that he did not think India posed a threat to Pakistan's security.

Backing down

Twice in the recent past this government has tried to tame the security establishment, first by trying to place the country's top intelligence service, the ISI, under civilian control, and then by agreeing to send the ISI chief to India in the aftermath of the Mumbai attacks to help Indian investigators.

On both occasions it had to back down under pressure from the military.

Will it do the same this time around?

Pakistan has taken a long time and issued several excuses and denials before admitting that the men who carried out attacks in Mumbai had trained and sailed out of Karachi in southern Pakistan.

But it has also emphasised international linkages in the conspiracy which may not be central to the case but which analysts believe would involve investigations in several countries and may take months to complete.

Then, there are obvious gaps in Pakistani investigations which officials say could only be filled by the Indian authorities.

Most important of all, there are reports the eight people indicted in Pakistan may be tried behind closed doors instead of in open court.

So unless there is sustained international pressure for speed and transparency, the Pakistani government may yet seek shelter in secrecy.
 
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I think it was a clever move. It took the sting out of the tail of these Indian accusations against Pakistan and neutralized any hostile motive on India's part. I think Pakistan had little choice in the matter but what is obvious is that there is a serious lack of coordination or planning in Islamabad. Instead of making this look like a climb down it could have made it look like Pakistan cooperating and being the responsible neighbour in the region. If Pakistan did not want to take this course then it should have been prepared for war. When Pakistan realized that Qasab was a Pakistan national its approach should have been planned and executed then rather than having to be pushed around and threatened by India fro information and action on the terrorists. Now it is India that looks like the good guy and Pakistan hiding behind lies. I have said this so many times in the past but Pakistan has a serious and probably fatal deficiency in information warfare and propaganda. How is it possible that India can keep the Col. Pirohit conspiracy under wraps without attracting much interest in the West. Pakistan has a lot to learn from Indian tactics and methods.
 
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I think it was a clever move. It took the sting out of the tail of these Indian accusations against Pakistan and neutralized any hostile motive on India's part. I think Pakistan had little choice in the matter but what is obvious is that there is a serious lack of coordination or planning in Islamabad. Instead of making this look like a climb down it could have made it look like Pakistan cooperating and being the responsible neighbour in the region. If Pakistan did not want to take this course then it should have been prepared for war. When Pakistan realized that Qasab was a Pakistan national its approach should have been planned and executed then rather than having to be pushed around and threatened by India fro information and action on the terrorists. Now it is India that looks like the good guy and Pakistan hiding behind lies. I have said this so many times in the past but Pakistan has a serious and probably fatal deficiency in information warfare and propaganda. How is it possible that India can keep the Col. Pirohit conspiracy under wraps without attracting much interest in the West. Pakistan has a lot to learn from Indian tactics and methods.

I don't think it was a clever move at all. You make clever moves when you have options. Here Pak had no options at all. It stood exposed & 55 million USD is a lot of money when held back as aid.

The ISI may be among the smartest organizations of its kind but this time (like the PA did in Kargil) , they miscalculated & mismanaged the show.Attempts to deny, show outrage, flying fighters over their own cities & finally to pass the buck to ' non state' actors failed miserably.

Now it is India that looks like the good guy and Pakistan hiding behind lies.

Without doubt, thats how things are.

India did wisely by not falling for the game & reciprocating in kind when Pak AC took to the air & formations mobilised. Pak too soon realised that it would not work this time.

Pak is in a bind, things are not going well on either of its borders, it has a bad internal situation & bad finances too boot. No suggestions on how it should move forward - its for the nation to decide.

It is natural & expected for the ppl of Pak to be disillusioned with the GOP. after all not long ago it insisted that all was well & the propaganda machine insisted that Kasab & Co were Indian plants, had a BD connection etc. Only to finally admit the truth somewhat shamefacedly as the GOP had insisted back in '71 & Kargil that all was well & victory would be theirs only to finally admit the loss of EP & withdraw from kargil.

The Pak media also did not help the Pak cause by exposing Kasab's links back home giving credence to Indian assertions which were finally vindicated.
Pak agencies ought / surely would have known that such acts were planned or intended & if they didn't, they are not worth the price the nation is paying to sustain them.

Yes, pak has a lot to learn. However instead of learning from India as suggested it would be better to learn from its own mistakes both in judgment & actions.
 
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i love the retardedness of bunch of threads and how other Indinas thanks for being anti-Pakistan.
 
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I think it was a clever move. It took the sting out of the tail of these Indian accusations against Pakistan and neutralized any hostile motive on India's part. I think Pakistan had little choice in the matter but what is obvious is that there is a serious lack of coordination or planning in Islamabad. Instead of making this look like a climb down it could have made it look like Pakistan cooperating and being the responsible neighbour in the region. If Pakistan did not want to take this course then it should have been prepared for war. When Pakistan realized that Qasab was a Pakistan national its approach should have been planned and executed then rather than having to be pushed around and threatened by India fro information and action on the terrorists. Now it is India that looks like the good guy and Pakistan hiding behind lies. I have said this so many times in the past but Pakistan has a serious and probably fatal deficiency in information warfare and propaganda. How is it possible that India can keep the Col. Pirohit conspiracy under wraps without attracting much interest in the West. Pakistan has a lot to learn from Indian tactics and methods.

I fail to see anything sinister in this, Pakistan is merely accepting an established fact based on the work done by its own investigation agency. The next step is a transparent trail of the accused and if found guilty proportionate punishment for their heinous crime under Pakistan law.
 
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I don't think it was a clever move at all. You make clever moves when you have options. Here Pak had no options at all. It stood exposed & 55 million USD is a lot of money when held back as aid.

The ISI may be among the smartest organizations of its kind but this time (like the PA did in Kargil) , they miscalculated & mismanaged the show.Attempts to deny, show outrage, flying fighters over their own cities & finally to pass the buck to ' non state' actors failed miserably.

Now it is India that looks like the good guy and Pakistan hiding behind lies.

Without doubt, thats how things are.

India did wisely by not falling for the game & reciprocating in kind when Pak AC took to the air & formations mobilised. Pak too soon realised that it would not work this time.

Pak is in a bind, things are not going well on either of its borders, it has a bad internal situation & bad finances too boot. No suggestions on how it should move forward - its for the nation to decide.

It is natural & expected for the ppl of Pak to be disillusioned with the GOP. after all not long ago it insisted that all was well & the propaganda machine insisted that Kasab & Co were Indian plants, had a BD connection etc. Only to finally admit the truth somewhat shamefacedly as the GOP had insisted back in '71 & Kargil that all was well & victory would be theirs only to finally admit the loss of EP & withdraw from kargil.

The Pak media also did not help the Pak cause by exposing Kasab's links back home giving credence to Indian assertions which were finally vindicated.
Pak agencies ought / surely would have known that such acts were planned or intended & if they didn't, they are not worth the price the nation is paying to sustain them.

Yes, pak has a lot to learn. However instead of learning from India as suggested it would be better to learn from its own mistakes both in judgment & actions.
Who said ISI organized the mumbai attack? Talk about mixing facts with BS to produce the Indian truth...
 
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I fail to see anything sinister in this, Pakistan is merely accepting an established fact based on the work done by its own investigation agency. The next step is a transparent trail of the accused and if found guilty proportionate punishment for their heinous crime under Pakistan law.

Ohhh so thats whats been happening during the last three months .......

I must have missed something then ....
 
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Who said ISI organized the mumbai attack? Talk about mixing facts with BS to produce the Indian truth...

ISI has incubated these organizations in the past. It has provided support-political and material. That they did this attack does put a question on their handlers. Why has Pakistan allowed such organizations to setup and sustain such a massive network in Pakistan.


On the other hand, i really was quite surprised to hear that Pakistan has accepted the charges. I hope it really is a new beginning, and that they take this case to its logical end. India should now definitely reciprocate and mellow down. Its a good start, and one that ought to be sustained. This kind of stuff does much more to improve relations than stupid CBM's.
 
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Who said ISI organized the mumbai attack? Talk about mixing facts with BS to produce the Indian truth...

Pak politicians are inept & dunderheads - as one gathers from posts of Pak citizen here.

The Army is composed of ' good boys' who only do their job & confine themselves to the barracks .

Terrorist outfits are off spring of the ISI who spawned them for Afhanistan / J&K . Now unfortunately they seem to have picked up a momentum of their own & the " acid has begun to eat into the container'.
 
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Pakistani conduct have never been of a mature nation. A mature civil society. I heard last week that Mr. A.Q Khan is declared a free man, Now today i saw in CNN a reporter trying to visit A.Q.Khans house being chased away, He is not allowed to meet forgieners, travel and yet the court says he is a free man. Same is the case with Kasab, when Geo T.V exposed the links, they where chased away security blanket where thrown in around now the admission of kasab links. Either the country is confused and is facing a delima due to its past deeds.. whther or not to suppor the kashmir cause and the militants killing innocent people in the name of it, whther or not to fight off the taliban they once supported, whther or not to reign in the Fundementalists trying to gain an upper hand over the moderate thinking civil society. Whatever decision it makes its facing the two edged sword. I believe it should go with the world and reign in these fundementalists, so that a foundation for a secular islamic republic can be laid which would be better for people of pakistan, india and afghanistan.
 
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Quite frankly the pak government is a sell out. This change and all of its actions are not reflective of the majority demand. India is milking the mileage it can get from these schmucks... Once the government changes things will be back to normal.
 
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I think it was a clever move. It took the sting out of the tail of these Indian accusations against Pakistan and neutralized any hostile motive on India's part. I think Pakistan had little choice in the matter but what is obvious is that there is a serious lack of coordination or planning in Islamabad. Instead of making this look like a climb down it could have made it look like Pakistan cooperating and being the responsible neighbour in the region. If Pakistan did not want to take this course then it should have been prepared for war. When Pakistan realized that Qasab was a Pakistan national its approach should have been planned and executed then rather than having to be pushed around and threatened by India fro information and action on the terrorists. Now it is India that looks like the good guy and Pakistan hiding behind lies. I have said this so many times in the past but Pakistan has a serious and probably fatal deficiency in information warfare and propaganda.
Your entire message is self contradictory.
You start with labeling the admission as a "smart move" but then admit that Pakistan had no other option. You then go on to admonish their PR machine for being unable to make themselves look like the "good guys" and presumable portray India as the "bad guys." Given how the events have unfolded in vivo, you would either have to be high or severely retarded to think that any of this is even plausible.

For once Pakistan has managed to make itself look a relatively responsible state by admitting to the obvious. Yet it seems like what you desire the most is for Pakistan to get better at subversion; the very thing that would have resulted in war.
 
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Quite frankly the pak government is a sell out. This change and all of its actions are not reflective of the majority demand. India is milking the mileage it can get from these schmucks... Once the government changes things will be back to normal.
Nothing is happening without the concurrence of the real power of the land.

It is just a "convenience" to blame the civilians. The PA owns Pakistan's foreign policy, has always done so and more so in the case of India.

Don't wait too hard for the next government. ;)
 
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Nothing is happening without the concurrence of the real power of the land.

It is just a "convenience" to blame the civilians. The PA owns Pakistan's foreign policy, has always done so and more so in the case of India.

Don't wait too hard for the next government. ;)
Every dog has its day.
 
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