Is Modi affecting Foreign policy of India ?

[kaykay]

So far he is going good with foreign policy....lets see what he does in future!!

 

[Taygibay]

Outgoing presidents often take surprisingly critical FP decisions without having to worry about electoral pressures.

Which are just as often not respected by the new Prez ...

Do remember that we have a Congress unified under one party's control and
nothing is happening because of internal dissent on striking down Obamacare.

It's not what you say or even signed at this point but rather, just as in war,
_what you can enforce_.

Tay.

 

[[Bregs]]

First India is no more non aligned at least as compared to before.. today India is a greedy country running after the so called interests as first priority. So many old relations may be given a quiet burial, quick new courting will be done and some will be given extra attention.

No modi is not always right and his overt attempt to court USA will backfire at some point when India and US interests hits a diverging point.
..

Here is lies the catch this is the worst fear of many indians that interests with US are bound to clash in future as india is not a western country belonging to either EU or NATO and we can never be yes man to US for ever , the govt needs to walk a tightrope of deft diplomacy so as not to run Russia wrong way as they have shown multiple times they are no push over when it comes to shove. recently they showed this in syria despite being bogged down by low oil prices and sanctions by EU

 

[Spectre]

Which are just as often not respected by the new Prez ...

Do remember that we have a Congress unified under one party's control and
nothing is happening because of internal dissent on striking down Obamacare.

It's not what you say or even signed at this point but rather, just as in war
_what you can enforce_.

Tay.

Generally continuity is maintained.. Election bluster dies down, promises are forgotten or procrastinated and the new president instead of rocking the boat gets on with the agenda. Domestically it's different but but externally US does not like to change the paradigm at the drop of hat. .

 

[Hassan Guy]

who?

 

[Levina]

1. Make the neighborhood impenetrable to China

Instead of squandering resources in countries like Vietnam, first build a firewall covering Srilanka, BD, Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives so that these countries are closed to Chinese Military and security agencies. There should be no more submarine visits to SL, imagine Russian Sub docking up in Canada! US almost started WW3 and Armageddon when Russia tied to position it's military installations in Cuba - our response should be on a similar level.

Agree.
I've been saying this repeatedly that Nepal,has been the most vexing foreign policy problem facing the Indian government. India will have to carefully monitor and appropriately respond to if Indian security interests are seriously compromised. As the status quo power in its neighbourhood, India will have to constantly play defence in its own backyard.

2. Safeguard energy ties with Saudi and Iran.

This is not that big of a problem as these countries themselves dont want to be dependent on one customer. They would welcome improved ties with India as long as there are no miss-steps like India involving themselves in their affairs

Some how Modi has managed middle east better than i expected.
Way back in 2013, I used to read a lot of anti-India stuff in the local newspaper,but not so now.
Isnt it surprising that KSA conferred on Modi the highest civilian award of their country? (that was shocking to me since Modi was seen as a hindu crusader till not so long ago).
To let Iran know that it was not being snubbed Modi simultaneously sent Petroleum Minister to Iran. I thought that was a brilliant balancing act by India.

3. Place Russia on equal priority to that of US

Russia is a critical hedge for India against US. Look at how smartly Erdogan used Russia to stump US. In addition they serve as an important check on China. Optics are important here - Russians are often more given to perceptions than US which is more focused on cold logical gains. I expect Modi to promote Russian ties more in international forums and visits. Russia is also naturally suspicious of China and while China has them at an disadvantage now due to low commodity prices that will not always be the case. In dire times we can count on Russia even more than US to step Chinese aggression either through back channel diplomacy or aggressive force projections on their borders

Our relations with Russia has never been so interesting as it is now. Like 2 adventurous partners, both India and Russia have been thawing their relations with the enemy of one another. India should not be squarely blamed for any change in equation between the two. I'm not saying our relations have hit rock bottom.
If we were to exclude defence then i still see a lot happening between the countries. For example out of 40 NPPs that India plans to be build about 20 of them will be built by Russia, while America could claim only 8 (or was it 6?).
ONGC is all set increase its stake in Russian oil firm,Rosneft’s project, while Oil India, Indian Oil and Bharat PetroResources will buy up to 23 % between them in the same field.
It would be wrong to assume our relationship with Russia will be progressively declining, instead i would say its "evolving".
Defence deals can be excluded.
I'm waiting for Putin's visit in the month of october, when he will be in India to attend BRICS summit.

4. Transactional ties with Europe

Europeans are best viewed as mercenaries, cash based transactional relationships will always be open. Giving so much space to Russia and US leaves very little strategic capital we can spend on Europe. France in particular showed us recently how quick they are ready to drop India as a hot potato when given a better deal by Australians. Despite India being the major victim of recent leaks, India was not informed and all efforts were made to damage control in Australia. Our poor DM came to know about it in the middle of night through ironically a traitor Ravi Shankaran. Then French put the blame on India for leaks and only when India protested and Australian newspaper themselves denied this later retracted. It leaves a clear indication that there is no strategic component to our ties with France or anyone else in Europe. @GURU DUTT @Levina

@nair @PARIKRAMA @hellfire

Did we not sign FTA with EU?

Thanks for the tag @Abba_Dabba_Jabba

 

[Spectre]

It would be wrong to assume our relationship with Russia will be progressively declining, instead i would say its "evolving"

We need to improve the optics where Russia is concerned. That's all. Optics and Perception plays a huge role in international politics. Right now the optics are heavy on US and light on Russia - a re-balancing is the need of the hour.

Did we not sign FTA with EU?

No, it has been stalled since ages.

 

[Abba_Dabba_Jabba]

Did we not sign FTA with EU?

Thanks for the tag @Abba_Dabba_Jabba

Always a pleasure mam..

I think FTA with EU is still under progress, N Sitharaman is still trying hard, these EU guys are hard nuts to crack. But we have now started talks of FTA with UK after Brexit, and its looks like UK is also very much interested in FTA with India.

Some how Modi has managed middle east better than i expected.
Way back in 2013, I used to read a lot of anti-India stuff in the local newspaper,but not so now.
Isnt it surprising that KSA conferred on Modi the highest civilian award of their country? (that was shocking to me since Modi was seen as a hindu crusader till not so long ago).
To let Iran know that it was not being snubbed Modi simultaneously sent Petroleum Minister to Iran. I thought that was a brilliant balancing act by India.

Middle East policy was definitely a surprise and well received in India, signing security agreement with Oman, Quatar & UAE, then arranging a military exercise with UAE and direct pipeline arrangement with Oman are some of the feathers in NDA govt's hat.

Also not forgetting the recent closeness with Myanmar and Bangladesh.

 

[Taygibay]

Domestically it's different but but externally US does not like to change the paradigm at the drop of hat. .

Except when as is the case here, it is a new paradigm.
Old habits die hard but new habits are tough to acquire?

But otherwise agreed, good evening mate, Tay.

 

[MilSpec]

I use to read here as guest but this question compelled me to create an account on defence pk, I dont think there is much change in Foreign Policy.

The very basic principle of Foreign policy is to advance your own interests.

With Russia:
Apart from historic ties(past 70 year ties) if we see objectively without the cloud of perception, and away from trolls and pathetic Indian media you will see our relation is as strong as always. Our military equipment is around 70% of Russian origin and yet nobody ever called it wrong!

Now my question to you is how come aligning with Russia(almost depending completely on a single nation) was not bad and now balancing it is bad?

With USA:
We are being a bit more balanced now instead being only in Soviet camp. USA provide not just some military hardware but the real value is diplomatic and economic clout.
Let me explain it a bit:
1) Economic Benefits: With US-China relations at all time low if India misses the bus the industries will move to Vietnam, Taiwan, Mexico etc, its true Chinese are rich but USA is still the richest nation on the planet and got the largest group of investors which follow the govt. advice very closely.
2) Diplomatic Benefits: There is not a shred of doubt about US diplomatic power and its not just limited to getting some resolution approved into UN, we can do it even without US help but its everywhere. Every single institution in the World, be it World Bank or WTO, wherever you want you can use US help and its a deciding factor. I dont know if you have any idea of Bali Package but if you ever get time go read it. US gave India the only opposer of new farmer subsidy rules everything we want and single-handedly. You name a major institution not important for future Indian growth story and US does not own it completely, literally.

Beside that there are other benefits too which are discussed to death here so I am not repeating them.

One more reason we dont see much momentum in India-Russia ties is cuz we are already at the peak of it. There is very less room for improvement, we are much stronger economically than Russia, we are very good at space and got good options for almost every other thing. However in case of US we are just starting. Consider going to 100 from 90, you will look going slow, its Russia, now consider going to 90 from 10, you will automatically go fast and it will be more visible.


Also I dont think defence pk is very right place to objectively assess Modi, the amount of trolling done here is pathetic and its amazing no mods do anything.

It will be highly hypocritical if we want our PM to act like an arrogant PM of super power in behaviour and still want others help in reducing 33% of world's poor population that we hosts.

If you want see an epic example of arrogance see Erdogan, how arrogantly he stood against Russia and later apologised multiple times in letter and in person, if you saw his grandstanding in which he was pulling up Ambassador from Bangladesh to everywhere you will see him licking what he spit. We need sensible people who can help India to achieve something not some Buffon who destroy relations between two countries for petty things.

P.S. Relation with US is not as scary as many trolls here post, if US give you money to radicalize your own population, arm and train them and you accept whole heartedly, carry it even after US withdrawl and than blame US than you are definitely some ret@rd who probably have no idea of your own country. There is a difference between the relationship between Business partners and Master and slaves. Whatever you listen from slaves will be highly baised, they always abuse old master and praise the new master in fear of not getting another beating.

Every agreement be it LEOMA or FGFA or RAFALE will be done only when India's concerns are addressed so there is no absolutely no chance of someone using you. Remind you we are not kids that US can use us, neither were our neighbours but we always need someone to blame for own faults.

Just my 2 cents.

welcome to the forum and what an entry.!
@Irfan Baloch saab, can you move the post to Indian section. thanks

 

[Irfan Baloch]

I use to read here as guest but this question compelled me to create an account on defence pk, I dont think there is much change in Foreign Policy.

The very basic principle of Foreign policy is to advance your own interests.

With Russia:
Apart from historic ties(past 70 year ties) if we see objectively without the cloud of perception, and away from trolls and pathetic Indian media you will see our relation is as strong as always. Our military equipment is around 70% of Russian origin and yet nobody ever called it wrong!

Now my question to you is how come aligning with Russia(almost depending completely on a single nation) was not bad and now balancing it is bad?

With USA:
We are being a bit more balanced now instead being only in Soviet camp. USA provide not just some military hardware but the real value is diplomatic and economic clout.
Let me explain it a bit:
1) Economic Benefits: With US-China relations at all time low if India misses the bus the industries will move to Vietnam, Taiwan, Mexico etc, its true Chinese are rich but USA is still the richest nation on the planet and got the largest group of investors which follow the govt. advice very closely.
2) Diplomatic Benefits: There is not a shred of doubt about US diplomatic power and its not just limited to getting some resolution approved into UN, we can do it even without US help but its everywhere. Every single institution in the World, be it World Bank or WTO, wherever you want you can use US help and its a deciding factor. I dont know if you have any idea of Bali Package but if you ever get time go read it. US gave India the only opposer of new farmer subsidy rules everything we want and single-handedly. You name a major institution not important for future Indian growth story and US does not own it completely, literally.

Beside that there are other benefits too which are discussed to death here so I am not repeating them.

One more reason we dont see much momentum in India-Russia ties is cuz we are already at the peak of it. There is very less room for improvement, we are much stronger economically than Russia, we are very good at space and got good options for almost every other thing. However in case of US we are just starting. Consider going to 100 from 90, you will look going slow, its Russia, now consider going to 90 from 10, you will automatically go fast and it will be more visible.


Also I dont think defence pk is very right place to objectively assess Modi, the amount of trolling done here is pathetic and its amazing no mods do anything.

It will be highly hypocritical if we want our PM to act like an arrogant PM of super power in behaviour and still want others help in reducing 33% of world's poor population that we hosts.

If you want see an epic example of arrogance see Erdogan, how arrogantly he stood against Russia and later apologised multiple times in letter and in person, if you saw his grandstanding in which he was pulling up Ambassador from Bangladesh to everywhere you will see him licking what he spit. We need sensible people who can help India to achieve something not some Buffon who destroy relations between two countries for petty things.

P.S. Relation with US is not as scary as many trolls here post, if US give you money to radicalize your own population, arm and train them and you accept whole heartedly, carry it even after US withdrawl and than blame US than you are definitely some ret@rd who probably have no idea of your own country. There is a difference between the relationship between Business partners and Master and slaves. Whatever you listen from slaves will be highly baised, they always abuse old master and praise the new master in fear of not getting another beating.

Every agreement be it LEOMA or FGFA or RAFALE will be done only when India's concerns are addressed so there is no absolutely no chance of someone using you. Remind you we are not kids that US can use us, neither were our neighbours but we always need someone to blame for own faults.

Just my 2 cents.

welcome
thanks for your honest commentary on India. and thanks for your perspective on Pakistan too although too simplified and black and white (as the popular opinion goes) but still a good start for a discussion.

PS. dont be bothered about trolls. keep posting and staying honest there are great examples to follow @Joe Shearer is one of them and other is @MilSpec there are more too but I am too old and lazy to keep track of their prior and present avatars and usernames.

Generally continuity is maintained.. Election bluster dies down, promises are forgotten or procrastinated and the new president instead of rocking the boat gets on with the agenda. Domestically it's different but but externally US does not like to change the paradigm at the drop of hat. .

you will be surprised how abruptly it takes U turn even astonishing people who are doing its bidding.

e.g.? I wont be surprised if the easing of relations with Cuba and the deal with Iran wont take a turn to the south.

 

[Spectre]

you will be surprised how abruptly it takes U turn even astonishing people who are doing its bidding.

e.g.? I wont be surprised if the easing of relations with Cuba and the deal with Iran wont take a turn to the south.

Well anything is possible but institutions like State Dept and CIA and establishments like Wall Street, Various interest groups like Israelis, Indians, Europeans, Weapon Manufacturers, Oil Companies etc would resist - strongly at that. It is these institutions and establishments which control the US policy more than any single twiddledee or twiddledum

That is why you see the overwhelming opposition against Trump. Everyone was Ok with Sanders winning in a fair fight against Hillary but not Trump. I have seldom seen everyone in US so united over any platform.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

Well anything is possible but institutions like State Dept and CIA and establishments like Wall Street, Various interest groups like Israelis, Indians, Europeans, Weapon Manufacturers, Oil Companies etc would resist - strongly at that. It is these institutions and establishments which control the US policy more than any single twiddledee or twiddledum

That is why you see the overwhelming opposition against Trump. Everyone was Ok with Sanders winning in a fair fight against Hillary but not Trump. I have seldom seen everyone in US so united over any platform.

you are correct about Trump but he is attracting the protest vote (for wrong reasons)
there are US generals that have (allegedly) said that they would rather resign than follow this mad fool who have no concept of the world and its working.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

welcome
thanks for your honest commentary on India. and thanks for your perspective on Pakistan too although too simplified and black and white (as the popular opinion goes) but still a good start for a discussion.

PS. dont be bothered about trolls. keep posting and staying honest there are great examples to follow @Joe Shearer is one of them and other is @MilSpec there are more too but I am too old and lazy to keep track of their prior and present avatars and usernames.

.

@BlackOpsIndia

now that the pleasantries are done it is necessary to offer a counter narrative to other readers in response to your points in the post. Re Pakistani role back in the 80s Afghan Jihad days its relations with KSA & USA in the past & present WOT and most importantly Turkey & Erdugon. There is a disappointing tendency among analysts to omit or ignore the role of both KSA & USA in the Afghan Jihad legacy & entire blame is put on Pakistan for the sake of convenience (or intellectual dishonesty). Both countries played very active & involved role never less (if not more) than Pakistan. the difference only being that they looked (and look) pretty from distance whereas Pakistan was left to clean up the mess & did what was best in its interest at the time when it saw its "allies" abandoning it (stay with me). The financial or military aid was just an incentive in addition to safeguarding its territory from possible Soviet invasion both physically & ideologically. The slavish and beggar slang is misinformed to put it mildly (although we acknowledge the intended malice & gratification it offers).

Again, stay with me and I will explain. we refused to join the fresh KSA & USA experiment in the middle east i.e. the ISIS.. we didn’t join the campaign against Yemen, although we were threatened with consequences, we started North Waziristan when it was the right time for us. The American forces were not allowed to bring ground forces inside tribal areas and that was limited to drone strikes (bar Abbotabad operation which might not have been needed if the American forces were not ordered to stand down & let Osama escape Tora Bora siege earlier & escape into Pakistan during the mass movement of IDPs & Afghan refugees around the time of South Waziristan operation). Despite all the hate & opposition, we kept advocating a dialogue between Afghan Taliban & Americans & kept warning them from the danger of falling in the trap of Northern Alliance (watch their own finding in the VICE documentary about a US Marine's story).


as for Erdogan, and your comment that he is licking his own spit (approaching Russia after downing its jet). I beg to disagree wholeheartedly and beg for your forgiveness because your comment fails on every level. Erdogan’s move to Russia was already in motion when he decided to realign his policy towards Syria which was not liked by KSA & USA .. he saw that his so called allies were now touting Kurds, turning smug over ISIS/ PKK terrorism inside Turkey.. and if that wasn’t enough the so called allies tried to do a " Gen Zia "on him, but mercifully he survived the coup and as a parting shot he showed a middle finger to his so called friends & approached Putin and re-aligned his policy towards Syria. I would leave his comment about Bangladesh for another discussion but I know it has "displeased" the Indians. so.. instead of bending backward & becoming weak, he has emerged stronger and received the reluctant call from Obama & others with their tails between their legs when the "things" didn’t turn out the way they wanted. just like Pakistan, Turkey will keep an eye on both "friends" & foes who want to take advantage from the Middle eastern chaos and Erdogan will cause much heartburn by looking after Turkish interests & fixing the damage it has suffered due to the fresh Middle eastern experiment and it has our best wishes.


re first stay with me: the Taliban project was ALSO a joint venture, participated & reviewed & approved by KSA & USA in order to bring stability in Afghanistan after the Afghan civil war among what makes up so called Northern alliance & other factions. the concept was spearheaded by a secular , democratic & much loved by west leader Benazir Bhutto, not some military dictator.

whenever a certain foreign policy is adopted there are consequences, some are forecast & contingencies put in place and some not especially when the allies take a turn mi- course. For Israelis & their Saudi Allies ISIS is a "useful tool". The concept is not just a thought in the Israeli think tank but is actually put in practice & has not seen any change even after the massacres in USA & Europe. Who seem to be facing the consequences of their actions but maybe Israel wont see anything such as long as it has KSA as its ally.


@cabatli_53 check out the comments on Turkey by our Indian friend
@Arsalan @AgNoStiC MuSliM @Horus over to you guys

 

[BlackOpsIndia]

Right use of words and welcome!

Thank you mate.

welcome to the forum and what an entry.!
@Irfan Baloch saab, can you move the post to Indian section. thanks

Thank you very much.

welcome
thanks for your honest commentary on India. and thanks for your perspective on Pakistan too although too simplified and black and white (as the popular opinion goes) but still a good start for a discussion.

My opinion was not about Pakistani people but about the cheerleader trolls here. I have no intention to insult all Pakistani people, there are good, there are bad and there are disgustingly worst.

I put it simply cuz my post was very lengthy already else I know about Pakistan and Pakistani mentality a lot. It would have taken at least 2-3 pages to discuss about the severe identity crisis with examples and facts, my opinion is far far away from the popular opinion. I will try to make a new post about your last reply as its already lengthy.

@BlackOpsIndia

the difference only being that they looked (and look) pretty from distance whereas Pakistan was left to clean up the mess & did what was best in its interest at the time when it saw its "allies" abandoning it (stay with me).

I frankly dont expect any rational discussion about Pakistan Jihad after hearing this line of great Himd Gul and other propaganda Anchors.

What mess of others???? They were trained for Afghanistan, you took them to Kashmir or did you mean to say US trained them for Kashmir and abandon you? You are still pursuing the same ideology be it Hafiz Saeed or Syed Salahuddin and there how comfortably you glorify as "cleaner of others mess". Who support Syed Salahuddin? who support Afghan Taliban? that propaganda and PR campaign for Zarb-e-Azb against every terrorist is evaporated with Hafiz Rally in Lahore after Burhan Wani. Thanks to him, months-long campaign of fooling the world went into smoke in a second.

@BlackOpsIndia
The slavish and beggar slang is misinformed to put it mildly (although we acknowledge the intended malice & gratification it offers).

It was intentional to keep away trolls, the shallow depth trolls often get nightmares when they face someone with facts and stay away automatically else they will get a good spanking. It was not for any sensible rational poster and not to hurt someone.

@BlackOpsIndia

Despite all the hate & opposition, we kept advocating a dialogue between Afghan Taliban & Americans & kept warning them from the danger of falling in the trap of Northern Alliance.

Wow!!!! just Wow! Amazing! Kept advocating for dialogue? really? you think everyone here is so dumb? Man we are not in US, we live in same continent and unfortunately neighbours, we can differentiate between truth and propoganda. You were paid for dialogue and you did lip service.

You dont want me to believe that Mullah Akhtar Mansoor was living in Pakistan and carry out attacks in Afghanistan without the help of ISI? do you? if you do then my bad, I really fall for those big moustaches thinking you as a mature lad.

and what about falling into "trap of Northen alliance"? what was that? Killing thousands per year in war is better for you than a political alignment in a country? and who exactly are you to decide that Northern alliance or Pashtun will rule Afghanistan? are you Afghan? or any of your General?

@BlackOpsIndia

Erdogan, and your comment that he is licking his own spit (approaching Russia after downing its jet).

you completely missed the point, it was not about his role in neighbourhood mess but about the foolish grandstanding he makes and later become laughing stock. Its not about Russia, this theatrics of pulling Ambassador is very common for him and seriously dented the prospects of it. Now whenever he say he will pull Ambassador other country dont take it seriously cuz they know he will send it after months.

If you follow Erdogan I hope you know how he pulled Ambassador from Germany, Bangladesh, Austria, Israel, Armenia, US and god knows where not. Asking your Ambassador back is not a child's play and put serious pressure on other country but now do you think anyone will give a damn if he recall Ambassador?

He recalled his Ambassador from Bangladesh for what? what has Turkey to do with it? how foolish was that! and what happen later? why he sent him back after a month or two? what cost he inflicted on Bangladesh for the "evil" of Bangladesh in killing a war criminal? any? what purpose does that exactly served? This is spit and lick and in the case of Russia, it was really embarrassing after all that chest thumping of "next superpower" Turkey will never apologise to Russia and what not was not said at the highest level of leadership.

Anyways it was not about Erdogan but about Modi and my dear friends of India who want to see him in that flavour. I strongly believe that we should never punch above the weight but for long we are punching way below our weight and as a result even tiny tiny nation/individuals take us for granted.