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“Prior knowledge” “deliberately” is very vague.

I wouldn't know why. These terms operate a necessary distinction between two separate eventualities with vastly different implications.

If an arms dealer asks an Iranian factory for a specific type of ammunition (one that is not in export catalog and one that Syria to my knowledge doesn’t use) then said factory would have to be extremely naive to not know who the end client is.

This postulates Iranian factories are authorized to deal directly with foreign customers. I doubt it.

Now if the above is accurate, then it'll be unlikely that the items shown are truly made in Iran.

It is appropriate. At international Arms shows there’s Iranian companies just like any other country. Or do you naively miss all the advertisement Iran does at these shows? Iran has gone on record trying to be a major export country for weapons.

Said factories build per contracts and If they didn’t go by contracts and interest then you would be correct.

A military-industrial complex and the more generic notion of a defense industry aren't exactly the same. Not every defense industry gives rise to what they call a military-industrial complex (in the sense given to it by USA president Eisenhower, one of the first or the first person to employ it in his 1961 Farewell Address).

Military industrial complex designates a nexus between the military, the defense industries and politics, and supposes lobbying activities in pursuit of vested interests as well as significant degree of autonomy that enables bypassing of key institutions.

The Iranian companies present at international exhibitions are not privately owned. They don't bribe Majles members to obtain contracts.

These are IRGC companies, IRGC can decide who they sell too. SNSC has IRGC aligned representatives. It is not as black and white as you like to make it seem.

If you did business transactions in Iran you would realize this.

National security is not dealt with in the same manner as regular business activities, being more sensitive and therefore regulated in a stricter manner.

Apart from the above, the IRGC has no interest in assisting a party that is fighting a major war against Russia.

There is no evidence of strategic relationship just words. I’m cautiously optimistic with the recent trends, but calling it strategic is premature. And Russia cannot do a damn thing to Iran. We are its only friendly country willing to supply anything. Even China has turned its back on military arms.

Russia would surely reconsider the recent deepening of bilateral ties, which has indeed a strategic quality to it, should Iran choose to support the Ukrainian war effort militarily. Not something Iran would rationally throw herself into, given the considerable efforts underlying the build up of the present relationship with Moscow, as well as the greater benefit Iran reaps from this relationship as compared to what she'd gain from munition sales to Kiev.

How is the 25 year ‘strategic’ deal with China going? Still waiting for those results. Let’s not call anything strategic anymore till the results appear.

On the economic front:

- The North-South corridor is in the process of being expanded.
- Iran now owns a port in Astrakhan on the Caspial Sea.
- Bilateral trade volume is rising uninterruptedly. Joint economic projects are multiplying.
- With her experience in circumventing sanctions, Iran is assisting Moscow.
- Iran trusts Russia enough to strike a deal with the Republic of Bashkortostan for extra-territorial production of items as strategic as basic foodstuff (wheat etc). For this Iran chose Russia and Venezuela over a major trade partner next door, namely Turkey.

On the political front:

- Increasing numbers of political forces in Russia are adopting an openly pro-Iranian line.
- In the Syrian theater and contrary to recurrent fake news about an imminent schism, the Iranian-Russian tandem has remained intact and managed to safeguard the status quo.
- Iran has recently provided considerable amounts of UAV's to Russia, Russia might have sold fighter jets and other weaponry to Iran.
- There is mutual understanding and coordination in resisting NATO.
- Never have Moscow's ties to Tel Aviv been as lukewarm, not to say cold. Russia shut down the local branch of the Jewish Agency, the organization that manages Jewish emigration to Occupied Palestine.

There is evidence. It’s pictures and videos. Unless you think CIA/MI6 went thru the painstakingly pointless process of copying Iranian munitions and posting it on social media so Russia would get ‘mad’ at Iran.

How is it painstaking to copy those shells, or rather to manufacture a small batch of lookalikes for a photo ops or two? Technically it represents a rather trivial task for USA intelligence services. While the investment required amounts to small change considering their colossal budgets. These sorts of operations represent textbook psy-ops. If Russian officials turn suspicious of Iran, the CIA, DIA or whatever agency is likely to have been behind it will hit the jackpot. If as little as public opinion in Russia and elsewhere is affected, they'll get more than their money's worth out of it.

The ones you see is the a fraction of what is happening. Ukrainian armed forces are under a cell phone ban. Even posting videos of air strikes is punishable by law by civilians. Compare this to Russian especially Wagner forces that actively use there phones.

The question this should prompt is, how come the Ukrainians will then stage pictorials of supposedly Iranian-made artillery shells when they basically ban frontline photography like you reminded? They will publish only what they deem to be in their and in NATO's propaganda interests. In what way would NATO benefit from conveying the message to the public, that Iran is actively aiding the Ukrainian military to kill Russian troops? Answers ought to be obvious I believe.

Not fake news if there is corresponding video showing the munitions being taken out with their fuses. You have presented zero evidence that these are not Iranian arms, just conjecture.

I'm simply highlighting the fact that these images onto themselves do not prove that those munitions (or mock ups) are actually of Iranian origin. Everything put on display in there can indeed be produced in the west.

Off the top of my head: Two Iranian air defense officials were killed late last year. Last couple months a high ranking official was killed via roadside bomb. Maybe these mean nothing

It's not that they mean nothing, but it's also true that very few Iranians were martyred as a result of zionist airstrikes on Syria. Unless we consider fewer than twenty or so martyrs a huge toll.

There are videos as well. And like I said plausible deniability on Iran’s part until the point you get where certain munitions are not in Iranian arms catlogs.

Apparently deniability wouldn't really be that plausible, seeing how convincing the Ukrainian and western claim in this affair seems to be to you. After all you're treating it as proof.

Iranian Grad rockets/152MM/122MM/mortars have all made it to Ukraine. And that is what some soldiers have actually videoed.

I'm yet to see evidence that those are really Iranian shells rather than fakes.

There's also a second kind of hypothesis, one whose plausibility you seemed to acknowledge: the USA regime paid a 'neutral' third party, some government in Asia or Africa for instance, to place a significant order for these various types of shells with Iran and then transfer them to Ukraine, unbeknownst to Iranian authorities. Under this scenario, had Iran suspected that these would land in the hands of Ukrainian forces, she wouldn't have went ahead with it.

In this manner Washington would have killed two birds with one stone: replenished dwindling stocks of Soviet or Russian type munitions in the Ukrainian army, and simultaneously mount a propaganda show to undermine the partnership between Iran and Russia. And we can be sure that this would be considered cost effective by the USA regime, since it's reported to have resorted to much more convoluted and complex operations in the past against Iran, like when they were said to have sold defective centrifuge parts to a company in Malaysia, in expectation that Iran would purchase said parts.

At any rate, what I'm saying is that because of her bilateral ties to Russia, Iran is very unlikely to have sold munitions to Ukraine. There are at least two alternative explanations for those pictures.
 
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Love the Aligator chopper. But needs to be modified to Iranian PGMs, Russian PGMs are short supply and I trust Iranian PGMs over those anyway. The helicopter has been shot down in Ukraine by manpads and short range ADs, so it is vulnerable even with its protection system in place warning pilot, however it has magnitudes more survivability than Iranian Cobra and other older helicopters. It’s a good chopper to buy and learn from.

Lastly I do believe Iran should take this time and order transport aircraft and choppers. It’s a pressing need. Iran still relies on Shah era C-130’s for a major component of its transport fleet. Iran is severely lacking on transport aircraft and is basically using civilian airlines as military transport aircraft.
 
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Love the Aligator chopper. But needs to be modified to Iranian PGMs, Russian PGMs are short supply and I trust Iranian PGMs over those anyway. The helicopter has been shot down in Ukraine by manpads and short range ADs, so it is vulnerable even with its protection system in place warning pilot, however it has magnitudes more survivability than Iranian Cobra and other older helicopters. It’s a good chopper to buy and learn from.

Lastly I do believe Iran should take this time and order transport aircraft and choppers. It’s a pressing need. Iran still relies on Shah era C-130’s for a major component of its transport fleet. Iran is severely lacking on transport aircraft and is basically using civilian airlines as military transport aircraft.
Good helicopter for Iran if as you said uses Iranian armaments
On the transport Issue. Iran has one of largest Heavy Transport feelts of IL-76..(8 is the last I remember) after Russia..may be Algeria has a lot too.

Medium Transport: our old C-130s ..until Iranian simorgh enters production but few from Russian does not hurt.
 
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Good helicopter for Iran if as you said uses Iranian armaments
On the transport Issue. Iran has one of largest Heavy Transport feelts of IL-76..(8 is the last I remember) after Russia..may be Algeria has a lot too.

Medium Transport: our old C-130s ..until Iranian simorgh enters production but few from Russian does not hurt.
the deal must include maintaining facility for those helicopter , just like Deal with bell , otherwise its not different from the deals of some countries south that we were mocking them for.
 
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Medium Transport: our old C-130s ..until Iranian simorgh enters production but few from Russian does not hurt.

Simorq / IrAn-140 payload: 6 tonnes. C-130E/H payload: >19 tonnes.

The Simorq is a light transport plane. It won't replace the C-130's but IRIAF's Fokker F-27's (getting really old). While the IRGC is using turbofan engine powered An-74's (payload: 7,5 tonnes) in the light transport role. Maybe they too will order some Simorqs in future to complement their Antonovs.

As far as rotorcraft are concerned, the Mi-26 would seem like a welcome solution, since Iran hasn't developed a domestic alternative to her heavy transport Chinooks. Moreover the Mi-26 shares features with the Mi-17 which Iran has lots of experience with.

Speaking of which, additional Mi-17's as medium transport helicopters for Sepah wouldn't hurt either, because has the entire maintenance, overhaul and upgrade infrastructure in place already. Plus, it perfectly fits Iran's doctrine considering it's a low cost, efficient, relatively sturdy and easy to maintain platform. However it's time for the domestic manufacturers of "Bell-style" helicopters (Saba-248, Shahed-278, Shabaviz-275) to launch increased production runs and supply Artesh with significant amounts of fresh airframes now.

With regards to attack helicopters, I'm having doubts. In the Meshkat video they state that the Tufan and Cobras cannot satisfy Iran's requirements considering the evolving characteristics of modern warfare, but they don't elaborate. I'd like to know in what way this would be the case. Also survivability was mentioned but cannot the Tufan be upgraded with defensive systems similar to Ka-52?
 
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Good helicopter for Iran if as you said uses Iranian armaments

That is key. Seeing Aligator firing unguided rockets in Ukraine is so sad.

On the transport Issue. Iran has one of largest Heavy Transport feelts of IL-76..(8 is the last I remember) after Russia..may be Algeria has a lot too.

8 heavy transport is nothing for a military the size of Iran and one aspiring to be a global military power (versus regional).

Medium Transport: our old C-130s ..until Iranian simorgh enters production but few from Russian does not hurt.

Simorgh is light transport and not heavy. Mass production of Simorgh, I’m skeptical. Iran still needs medium and heavy transport.


the deal must include maintaining facility for those helicopter , just like Deal with bell , otherwise its not different from the deals of some countries south that we were mocking them for.

Iran is already a maintenance hub for MI helicopters. I believe I read somewhere that Russia was going to make the official licensed maintenance hub for ALL MI helicopters in Middle East.

Iran has a lot of experience with Russian helicopter and it’s architecture.
Simorq / IrAn-140 payload: 6 tonnes. C-130E/H payload: >19 tonnes.

The Simorq is a light transport plane. It won't replace the C-130's but IRIAF's Fokker F-27's (getting really old). While the IRGC is using turbofan engine powered An-74's (payload: 7,5 tonnes) in the light transport role. Maybe they too will order some Simorq's in future to complement their Antonovs.

Correct analysis
As far as helicopters are concerned, the Mi-26 would seem like a welcome solution, since Iran hasn't developed a domestic alternative to her heavy transport Chinooks.

Better to get engine tech and build. Remember national helicopter project? What happened to it? Why did it fade into oblivion? Likely due to engine
Additional Mi-17's as medium transport helicopters for Sepah wouldn't hurt either, because they have the entire maintenance, overhaul and upgrade infrastructure in place. Plus, it perfectly fits Iran's needs, considering the fact that it's a low cost, relatively sturdy and easy to maintain platform. However it's time for the domestic manufacturers of "Bell-style" helicopters (Saba-248, Shahed-278, Shabaviz-275) to launch increased production runs and supply Artesh with significant amounts of fresh airframes now.

With regards to attack helicopters, I'm having doubts. In the Meshkat video they state that the Tufan and Cobras cannot satisfy Iran's requirements considering the evolving characteristics of modern warfare, but they don't elaborate. I'd like to know in what way this would be the case. Also survivability was mentioned but cannot the Tufan be upgraded with defensive systems similar to the ones present on the Ka-52?

Next Gen chopper should be built according to stealth design similar to the stealth variant of Black Hawk that is used by US special forces and rarely documented.

All of Iran’s helicopters are designed with 1970’s design ideology in mind. Radar and ADs systems even Manpads have advanced much over those years making helicopters extremely vulnerable.

Also is there proof Iran can build a medium or heavy helicopter engine? They cannot. Hopefully the joint production deal with Russia produces a viable engine.

Iran can simply build light attack helicopters based on Cobra or Bell design. @Hack-Hook claims that Iran builds these engines for these choppers from scratch. I haven’t seen any evidence of that. I think they are merely refurbished similar to F-4, F-14 engines.
 
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Iran is already a maintenance hub for MI helicopters. I believe I read somewhere that Russia was going to make the official licensed maintenance hub for ALL MI helicopters in Middle East.

Iran has a lot of experience with Russian helicopter and it’s architecture.
I'm more concerned about Ka-52. I don't see why we need it , our upgrade of AH-1 actually have betyter weapon and i think its sensors are equal , i agree on heavy and medium transport both rotary and fixed wing , but when it come to attack helicopters i don't understand why .if we think we can't produce the engine in time , we just need to import engine and build our upgraded and optimized versions of AH-1j which we are a lot more familiar in operating than ka-52 and by the way have lower profile and easier to ambush the enemy with .
ka-52 advantage over them is its warning suit that if we can build it for karrar we certainly can built it for helicopters
 
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the deal must include maintaining facility for those helicopter , just like Deal with bell , otherwise its not different from the deals of some countries south that we were mocking them for.

Not just Arab regimes of the Persian Gulf, the shah regime as well. Which was given no choice but to rely on 40.000 USA military advisers to keep its (overpriced) armed forces running. And, by signing the capitulation treaty, had to relinquish the right for Iranian law enforcement and judiciary to arrest and prosecute any USA citizen committing a crime against Iranians, no matter how severe.

The Americans would not let Iranian engineers near the most sophisticated weapons systems they sold Iran. As for common tasks including most trivial ones such as routine repairs, they'd systematically prioritize USA citizens, paying them astronomic salaries for the "overseas mission", despite the fact that there were Iranian technicians competent enough to accomplish the job.

In one illustrative instance a taxi driver from the south central Los Angeles ghetto of Watts, who had overheard two of his passengers talking about the Eldorado that was Iran for American contractors, decided to visit the relevant office where he was quickly recruited to work with the USA military in Iran even though he wasn't actually qualified for any of the jobs on offer. In effect, he spent his time drinking coffee at American military facilities and was paid thousands of dollars for it. He was clever so good for him, but it says something about the nature of the relationship between Iran and the USA prior to the Islamic Revolution.



8 heavy transport is nothing for a military the size of Iran and one aspiring to be a global military power (versus regional).

There are also several Boeing 747's among the heavy transport fleet. But yes, adding more Il-76's wouldn't sound irrational.
 
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I'm more concerned about Ka-52. I don't see why we need it , our upgrade of AH-1 actually have betyter weapon and i think its sensors are equal , i agree on heavy and medium transport both rotary and fixed wing , but when it come to attack helicopters i don't understand why .if we think we can't produce the engine in time , we just need to import engine and build our upgraded and optimized versions of AH-1j which we are a lot more familiar in operating than ka-52 and by the way have lower profile and easier to ambush the enemy with .
ka-52 advantage over them is its warning suit that if we can build it for karrar we certainly can built it for helicopters
It’s been awhile since I replied to posts but I like the ka 52 a lot mainly because of it maneuverability, upgrade is still an upgrade older machines have to be replaced sooner than later cobras are still 50 years old way past their lifespan, I’ve watched some the videos of ka 52 pretty amazing.
 
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I'm more concerned about Ka-52. I don't see why we need it ,

We don’t need Karrar either. Who is going to invade Iran by land besides USA?

There is a saying which I think military takes to heart, ask for it even if you don’t need it because one day when you do need it you won’t have it.

Iran’s army wants modernized choppers it’s on their wish list since Bagheri went to Russia. I like you was skeptical, but it is what it is.

our upgrade of AH-1 actually have betyter weapon and i think its sensors are equal

Two different class of helicopters. One is heavy attack, one is light attack.

, we just need to import engine and build our upgraded and optimized versions of AH-1j which we are a lot more familiar

That is likely what the announced “joint helicopter project” is

ka-52 advantage over them is its warning suit that if we can build it for karrar we certainly can built it for helicopters

Karrar has no advanced warning suite on KA-52 level. It merely has a 360 laser warning system tied to aerosol dispensaries an outdated Tatic. Some models have the Shorta like laser jammer.

There are also several Boeing 747's among the heavy transport fleet. But yes, adding more Il-76's wouldn't sound irrational.

Yes Iran desperately needs something in the C-17 Globemaster class of transport.

We have 8 lL-76’s

How many heavy transport does USAF have in this picture alone?

1674535601669.jpeg


China has the Y-20
Y-20-Serbia.jpg


Russia-Ukraine war showed one important thing - you can have a massive military, but if your logistics and supply lines are subpar then even a much weaker country can punch you in the mouth.

We also need modern AWACS and mini AWACS and SIGINT/EINT aircraft.

Puzzling how Iran does not prioritize these things.
 
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There are also several Boeing 747's among the heavy transport fleet. But yes, adding more Il-76's wouldn't sound irrational.
The retired airliners can be used as air freighters,however they have no airdrop capability and are dependent upon having decent runways to land on to offload their cargo.
By comparison dedicated military transports do not have these sorts of limitations/restrictions.
Another advantage is the improved performance of the modernised IL-76MD-90AE over its earlier versions,as its been fitted with the newer ps90 high bypass turbofan engine,plus numerous other upgrades.
https://roe.ru/eng/catalog/aerospace-systems/military-transport/il-76md-90ae/
 
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Not just Arab regimes of the Persian Gulf, the shah regime as well. Which was given no choice but to rely on 40.000 USA military advisers to keep its (overpriced) armed forces running. And, by signing the capitulation treaty, had to relinquish the right for Iranian law enforcement and judiciary to arrest and prosecute any USA citizen committing a crime against Iranians, no matter how severe.

The Americans would not let Iranian engineers near the most sophisticated weapons systems they sold Iran. As for common tasks including most trivial ones such as routine repairs, they'd systematically prioritize USA citizens, paying them astronomic salaries for the "overseas mission", despite the fact that there were Iranian technicians competent enough to accomplish the job.

In one illustrative instance a taxi driver from the south central Los Angeles ghetto of Watts, who had overheard two of his passengers talking about the Eldorado that was Iran for American contractors, decided to visit the relevant office where he was quickly recruited to work with the USA military in Iran even though he wasn't actually qualified for any of the jobs on offer. In effect, he spent his time drinking coffee at American military facilities and was paid thousands of dollars for it. He was clever so good for him, but it says something about the nature of the relationship between Iran and the USA prior to the Islamic Revolution
here is the dilemma , the equipment and the facilities were in Iran , not in USA. when we made a deal with Bell company . the deal included a production line for bell utility helicopters . and that part of the deal made it possible for us to keep those helicopter flight worthy and even upgrade them after bell engineer left Iran .
and what's the point about capitulation , that law belong to at least 15 year before the deal we had with bell .
the capitulation was a humiliating law no argument on that but its not the discussion here , here we discuss the weapon contract for helicopters with bell company .and the new weapon deal rumor with Russia .
answer me one thing , if the new deal with Russia only consist helicopter and spares for ka-52 then which deal is better one , the one we had for AH-1jj or the one we will get for KA-52 ?
 
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Two different class of helicopters. One is heavy attack, one is light attack.
heavy attack helicopter yes , but the question is you prefer light attack helicopter that can engage enemy from 10km away or a heavy attack helicopter that will do that from 5km away ?
Yes Iran desperately needs something in the C-17 Globemaster class of transport.

We have 8 lL-76’s

How many heavy transport does USAF have in this picture alone?

View attachment 912815

China has the Y-20
Y-20-Serbia.jpg


Russia-Ukraine war showed one important thing - you can have a massive military, but if your logistics and supply lines are subpar then even a much weaker country can punch you in the mouth.

We also need modern AWACS and mini AWACS and SIGINT/EINT aircraft.

Puzzling how Iran does not prioritize these things.
we need something like illushin-76 in more number , c-17 or y-20 are not suitable for our needs , they are big , can carry more . but they had one problem , for operation they need large well kept airfields and at the time of war it may be hard to keep all airfields in those condition on other hand Il-76 while is older generation transport aircraft and its aerodynamic is inferior to those two have the advantage of being able to land and fly on sort even unpaved airfields that make its operation a lot easier in war time
 
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