Iran-US escalation thread.

[PeeD]

This didn't happen incidentally: Shamkhani changed RoE a few hours before this event.
US intelligence tracks any statement by such Iranian officials, they got the hidden message.

However they opted to operate without RoE change and underestimated Iranian capability to answer within 6 or so hours.
Many hidden messages involved here.
We can assume that Iranian strategists have a grand plan here.

 

[arashkamangir]

This didn't happen incidentally: Shamkhani changed RoE a few hours before this event.
US intelligence tracks any statement by such Iranian officials, they got the hidden message.

However they opted to operate without RoE change and underestimated Iranian capability to answer within 6 or so hours.
Many hidden messages involved here.
We can assume that Iranian strategists have a grand plan here.

@PeeD Sorry I can't follow. Are you talking about the shutdown of the UAV or the US strike call off?

 

[TheImmortal]

Something just doesn’t make sense.

So Iran takes down one drone (something the Houthis did just days prior) and suddenly US is not going to strike ONE, but a HANDFUL of radar/Missile batteries on Iranian soil.

I’m sorry that is not a “measured” response or a proportional response. That was a declaration of war.

Your enemy knocks down a drone, so you come back and knock 3-5 Radar/Missile batteries potentially causing HUMAN casualties? This is a CLEAR escalation that would force Iran to respond.

But here’s where it gets even more strange, ships are in position and fighter jets are in the air ready to commence the attack and suddenly like a SCRIPT FROM A HOLLYWOOD MOVIE Trump gets on the phone and says call it off call it off.

Sounds way to Hollywood-Esque for me.

 

[PeeD]

@PeeD Sorry I can't follow. Are you talking about the shutdown of the UAV or the US strike call off?

Before the RQ-4 kill, Shamkhani issued that statement in Russia.

That called of strike is a typical step required by Trumps mad-man doctrine.

 

[khansaheeb]

For who?-"All his choices are bad"

 

[arashkamangir]

For who?-"All his choices are bad"

For Trump if you are referring to my post.

 

[khansaheeb]

For Trump if you are referring to my post.

Could be bad for Trump and a disaster for Iran. Iran needs to tread carefully, very carefully.

 

[arashkamangir]

Could be bad for Trump and a disaster for Iran. Iran needs to tread carefully, very carefully.

Iran will win any confrontation with US in the region in the long term albeit with huge cost and casualty. That is base on # of available human fighters, # readily available fire power within 2500 KM range and sheer will to fight Americans. In contrast, US is over 12000 KM away, barely any available man power and purely rely on assets in the region that can be erased quickly and wont be replacable in reasonable amount of time.

 

[azbaroj]

Iran will win any confrontation with US in the region in the long term albeit with huge cost and casualty. That is base on # of available human fighters, # readily available fire power within 2500 KM range and sheer will to fight Americans. In contrast, US is over 12000 KM away, barely any available man power and purely rely on assets in the region that can be erased quickly and wont be replacable in reasonable amount of time.

If Americans are cornered by Iranians they may strike Iran with tactical Nukes , this will make the situation worst for Iran if they have no preparations to response against tactical nuclear strike . Americans concluded that they will not attack a non nuclear state with nukes but only exception is Iran . They may use nukes against Iran .

 

[PeeD]

Behind the scene there seems to be a staged escalation if we look closely:

- Attack against unloaded tankers at bay: 4 Damaged tankers
- Attack against loaded tankers: 1 damaged tanker, 1 partially on fire
- Attack against U.S MQ-9: No kill.
- Attack against U.SMQ-9 in Yemen via Iranian modified system (Raad?): Kill
- Attack against highest value U.S drone: Kill

More certainly to come, at which time and magnitude remains to be seen.
Zarif is probably working without sleep to cover the diplomatic fallout this game of Iranian strategists has crated for him.
Direct U.S attack is still very unlikely but Trumps mad-man doctrine gets shakier and shakier.

 

[arashkamangir]

Behind the scene there seems to be a staged escalation if we look closely:

- Attack against unloaded tankers at bay: 4 Damaged tankers
- Attack against loaded tankers: 1 damaged tanker, 1 partially on fire
- Attack against U.S MQ-9: No kill.
- Attack against U.SMQ-9 in Yemen via Iranian modified system (Raad?): Kill
- Attack against highest value U.S drone: Kill

More certainly to come, at which time and magnitude remains to be seen.
Zarif is probably working without sleep to cover the diplomatic fallout this game of Iranian strategists has crated for him.
Direct U.S attack is still very unlikely but Trumps mad-man doctrine gets shakier and shakier.

How come you have not included the drone attack against Saudi oil infrastructure? It appears to fall inline.

 

[PeeD]

How come you have not included the drone attack against Saudi oil infrastructure? It appears to fall inline.

Sure, but that is indirect action via Iranian allies in Iraq and Yemen. Effect is the same.
The MQ-9 kill in Yemen was apparently direct action by Iran as far as the U.S says.

But you are certainly right: This is part of the same package.

 

[OldTwilight]

If Americans are cornered by Iranians they may strike Iran with tactical Nukes , this will make the situation worst for Iran if they have no preparations to response against tactical nuclear strike . Americans concluded that they will not attack a non nuclear state with nukes but only exception is Iran . They may use nukes against Iran .

Well , then IRAN SHOULD HAVE NUKES ....


For God sake my mobile keyboard suggest this sentence automatically to me because for years I m trying to show reality to them ...


I'm sure there are many Iranian generals and officials who ask for nukes and that why Khamenei was forced to publicly say Nuke is Haram ....


Even a limited attack to our mainland will force khamenei to accept the reality and give green line for making nukes ....

Behind the scene there seems to be a staged escalation if we look closely:

- Attack against unloaded tankers at bay: 4 Damaged tankers
- Attack against loaded tankers: 1 damaged tanker, 1 partially on fire
- Attack against U.S MQ-9: No kill.
- Attack against U.SMQ-9 in Yemen via Iranian modified system (Raad?): Kill
- Attack against highest value U.S drone: Kill

More certainly to come, at which time and magnitude remains to be seen.
Zarif is probably working without sleep to cover the diplomatic fallout this game of Iranian strategists has crated for him.
Direct U.S attack is still very unlikely but Trumps mad-man doctrine gets shakier and shakier.

You are an American ...

 

[arashkamangir]

Sure, but that is indirect action via Iranian allies in Iraq and Yemen. Effect is the same.
The MQ-9 kill in Yemen was apparently direct action by Iran as far as the U.S says.

But you are certainly right: This is part of the same package.

Ah I didn't realize the MQ-9 take down was by Iranians directly.

I would also add the rocket attacks into Green Zone.

 

[PeeD]

Ah I didn't realize the MQ-9 take down was by Iranians directly.

It was the first time what Americans described as "Iranian modified SA-6" to be used in Yemen.
MQ-9 operate above Sanaa but probably at 15km altitude. The export grade SA-6 can't reach that high.
So Americans were confident.
The use of a modified SA-6 with Irans Raad background indirectly tells that this was probably a Raad ordered to be started to be used by Iran or directly shot by Iranian advisers.
However I agree that same could be said about Houthi LR-drone and alleged CM attacks, those capabilities were also just allowed to be used when all this staged escalation strategy started.

You are an American ...

Hmm... seems like my English is improving.