Iran taking a risky gamble

[TheImmortal]

Another reason for Iran’s restrained response last night is the upcoming presidential elections. Iran is betting that Trump gets ousted from office and that a democratic president comes returning to the nuclear deal and gives Iran a fresh chance to negotiate.

Zarif has been told as much in dinner meetings with democratic senators. Thus Iran is going to keep European and American viewpoints on it largely positive just in case Trump gets voted out.

Nonetheless, if history is any indicator then it’s unlikely since last president to get voted out was Bush Sr 30 years ago. The economy is doing well and historically that has been good indicator for re election chances.

If Trump gets re-elected he will not have to worry about his base or re election and can then fufill whatever agenda he wants. It’s clear the war hawks and Zionists want war or at least a toothless Iran.

It’s hard to see Iran staying still under 4 more years of brutal sanctions. Questions arise wether Iran can handle another 4 years with a restive population and sinister plots by external forces.

What will Iran do if Trump gets re-elected? They have ruled out negotiations. This administration full of war hawks is not going to suddenly come baring a nice package to convince Iran to come to the table.

It seems Iran is making a risky gamble to avoid any major escalation until it sees who is going to be president.

 

[GWXP]

Trump lost popular vote against Hillary---so there is a chance Trump might fail in 2020

 

[Stryker1982]

Another reason for Iran’s restrained response last night is the upcoming presidential elections. Iran is betting that Trump gets ousted from office and that a democratic president comes returning to the nuclear deal and gives Iran a fresh chance to negotiate.

Zarif has been told as much in dinner meetings with democratic senators. Thus Iran is going to keep European and American viewpoints on it largely positive just in case Trump gets voted out.

Nonetheless, if history is any indicator then it’s unlikely since last president to get voted out was Bush Sr 30 years ago. The economy is doing well and historically that has been good indicator for re election chances.

If Trump gets re-elected he will not have to worry about his base or re election and can then fufill whatever agenda he wants. It’s clear the war hawks and Zionists want war or at least a toothless Iran.

It’s hard to see Iran staying still under 4 more years of brutal sanctions. Questions arise wether Iran can handle another 4 years with a restive population and sinister plots by external forces.

What will Iran do if Trump gets re-elected? They have ruled out negotiations. This administration full of war hawks is not going to suddenly come baring a nice package to convince Iran to come to the table.

It seems Iran is making a risky gamble to avoid any major escalation until it sees who is going to be president.

I don't think Iran can handle another 4 more years of trump as you say.

 

[Foxtrot Delta]

O well.

 

[GWXP]

One thing Trump said in his speech is that USA becomes energy independent and "options became available".

War hawks can convince Trump that ME oil is no longer important and US should attack Iranian nuclear facilities enjoying full military superiority while not caring about ME oil.

Unlike 10 years ago, USA is no longer dependent on ME oil. In the event of war US can establish a fixed price on domestic oil to prevent inflation.

Persian Gulf oil should be more of concern to Asians as 76% of ME oil goes to Asia

Of course US exports to Asia will fall in the event of war in the Persian Gulf due to recession in Asia, and imports from Asia will become more expensive generating some inflation------- but this is tolerable for USA.

In 5 years from now, ME oil will become less important and deterrence in form of threats to close the Strait of Hormuz will no longer work----so Iran has only one option to defend itself------develop nuclear weapons or buy them from North Korea in order to guarantee its security.

 

[Sineva]

Yes,it was a risk.However to have done nothing would have been far,far riskier as in effect this would`ve lead to the collapse of the structure of deterrence that is the basis for irans entire regional security.

 

[khansaheeb]

Another reason for Iran’s restrained response last night is the upcoming presidential elections. Iran is betting that Trump gets ousted from office and that a democratic president comes returning to the nuclear deal and gives Iran a fresh chance to negotiate.

Zarif has been told as much in dinner meetings with democratic senators. Thus Iran is going to keep European and American viewpoints on it largely positive just in case Trump gets voted out.

Nonetheless, if history is any indicator then it’s unlikely since last president to get voted out was Bush Sr 30 years ago. The economy is doing well and historically that has been good indicator for re election chances.

If Trump gets re-elected he will not have to worry about his base or re election and can then fufill whatever agenda he wants. It’s clear the war hawks and Zionists want war or at least a toothless Iran.

It’s hard to see Iran staying still under 4 more years of brutal sanctions. Questions arise wether Iran can handle another 4 years with a restive population and sinister plots by external forces.

What will Iran do if Trump gets re-elected? They have ruled out negotiations. This administration full of war hawks is not going to suddenly come baring a nice package to convince Iran to come to the table.

It seems Iran is making a risky gamble to avoid any major escalation until it sees who is going to be president.

Yeh but what if Trump gets re-elected and is given the green light for regime change around the region and his master Netanyahu starts rampaging too? The American system is stacked so that the nastiest always come to power so I don't see peace in the horizon for long. The main question is after sanctions on Iran which country will be next?

 

[GWXP]

I will try to estimate damage that can be inflicted on US economy in the event of war with Iran....

US produces 12mln bpd of oil and consumes 20mln bpd---import is 8mln bpd.

USA has Strategic oil reserves of 635mln barrels of oil that can deliver 4,4mln bpd for a period of 5 month----this is supplying more than half of oil import for a period of 5 month

US consumes 7,3bln barrels of oil per year and produces 4,4 bln barrels of oil plus Strategic oil reserves of 0,63bln barrels of oil equals to 5bln barrels of domestic oil

So If USA has 5bln barrels of domestic oil that can be sold at a fixed price of 60$ per barrel, USA needs to import 2,3bln barrels of oil mostly from Canada.

Without war, US spendings on oil equals 7,3bln *60$ = 438bln$

With war, US spendings on oil equals 5bln*60$ plus 2,3bln*150$ = 645bln$

Difference if 200bln$ overpaying for oil, meaning gasoline prices will increase by only 50% in the event of war

If US households spend 200bln$ more of their net income on gasoline----they will not spend this 200bln$ in Walmart or McDonalds, meaning there will be recession with GDP declining by 200bln*1,5 = 300bln$ (where 1,5 is multiplier effect coefficient.)

US exports are 1,6trln$ and mostly go to Asia and Europe. There will be severe recession in Asia and Europe so they won't be able to buy US exports and US exports will decline by 10% or 160bln$ meaning GDP will decline by 240bln$ due to multiplier effect.

300bln decline plus 240bln decline = 540bln decline or just 2,5% of GDP

If US GDP declines by 2,5%----government revenues will also decline by 2,5% or 91bln$ and this amount must be borrowed by issuing new treasures.

Direct costs or war: deployment of 200.000 troops will cost 200bln$ per year and 450.000 aircraft sorties against Iran will cost 45bln$ (with one sorty cost of 100k$) ====245bln$ of direct military costs.---this money must be borrowed by issuing new treasures.

Overall damage for USA in the event of war in the Persian Gulf :

1) GDP decline by 2,5%

2) Federal debt increasing by 336bln$ (91bln + 245bln)

3) gasoline price increase by 50% for average US household

4) some movements in the Stock market

5) some inflation increase as imports from Asia and EU becomes a bit expensive

So as you can see this damage is not desirable but is TOLERABLE. The truth is that most Americans will not even feel it (unlike Asians who buy most of their oil from ME)

So with US becoming more oil independent "options become available"


Iran can close the Strait of Hormuz for maximum 2 month. Damaged Arabian oil infrastructure probably can be repaired withing 6 month....So oil supply disruption will last for 8 month making substantial economic damage mostly to Asians

So the best guarantee of security for Iran is nuclear weapons

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

I will try to estimate damage that can be inflicted on US economy in the event of war with Iran....

US produces 12mln bpd of oil and consumes 20mln bpd---import is 8mln bpd.

USA has Strategic oil reserves of 635mln barrels of oil that can deliver 4,4mln bpd for a period of 5 month----this is supplying more than half of oil import for a period of 5 month

US consumes 7,3bln barrels of oil per year and produces 4,4 bln barrels of oil plus Strategic oil reserves of 0,63bln barrels of oil equals to 5bln barrels of domestic oil

So If USA has 5bln barrels of domestic oil that can be sold at a fixed price of 60$ per barrel, USA needs to import 2,3bln barrels of oil mostly from Canada.

Without war, US spendings on oil equals 7,3bln *60$ = 438bln$

With war, US spendings on oil equals 5bln*60$ plus 2,3bln*150$ = 645bln$

Difference if 200bln$ overpaying for oil, meaning gasoline prices will increase by only 50% in the event of war

If US households spend 200bln$ more of their net income on gasoline----they will not spend this 200bln$ in Walmart of McDonalds, meaning there will be recession with GDP declining by 200bln*1,5 = 300bln$ (where 1,5 is multiplier effect coefficient.)

US exports are 1,6trln$ and mostly go to Asia and Europe. There will be severe recession in Asia and Europe so they won't be able to buy US exports and US exports will decline by 10% or 160bln$ meaning GDP will decline by 240bln$ due to multiplier effect.

300bln decline plus 240bln decline = 540bln decline or just 2,5% of GDP

If US GDP declines by 2,5%----government revenues will also decline by 2,5% or 91bln$ and this amount must be borrowed by issuing new treasures.

Direct costs or war: deployment of 200.000 troops will cost 200bln$ per year and 450.000 aircraft sorties against Iran will cost 45bln$ (with one sorty cost of 100k$) ====245bln$ of direct military costs.---this money must be borrowed by issuing new treasures.

Overall damage for USA in the event of war in the Persian Gulf :

1) GDP decline by 2,5%

2) Federal debt increasing by 336bln$ (91bln + 245bln)

3) gasoline price increase by 50% for average US household

4) some movements in the Stock market

5) some inflation increase as imports from Asia and EU becomes a bit expensive

So as you can see this damage is not desirable but is TOLERABLE. The truth is that most Americans will not even feel it (unlike Asians who buy most of their oil from ME)

So with US becoming more oil independent "options become available"


Iran can close the Strait of Hormuz for maximum 2 month. Damaged Arabian oil infrastructure probably can be repaired withing 6 month....So oil supply disruption will last for 8 month making substantial economic damage mostly to Asians

So the best guarantee of security for Iran is nuclear weapons

Which means Iran should ignore its reformist camp and go for the bomb no matter the obstacles.

 

[Cash GK]

One thing Trump said in his speech is that USA becomes energy independent and "options became available".

War hawks can convince Trump that ME oil is no longer important and US should attack Iranian nuclear facilities enjoying full military superiority while not caring about ME oil.

Unlike 10 years ago, USA is no longer dependent on ME oil. In the event of war US can establish a fixed price on domestic oil to prevent inflation.

Persian Gulf oil should be more of concern to Asians as 76% of ME oil goes to Asia

Of course US exports to Asia will fall in the event of war in the Persian Gulf due to recession in Asia, and imports from Asia will become more expensive generating some inflation------- but this is tolerable for USA.

In 5 years from now, ME oil will become less important and deterrence in form of threats to close the Strait of Hormuz will no longer work----so Iran has only one option to defend itself------develop nuclear weapons or buy them from North Korea in order to guarantee its security.

He is blacmailing arabs. Let us sit here.. he wants more money from arabs what arabs pay for security as he is businessman. Other hands iran telling arabs US stays here it dont matter anymore.. let US leav these lands.. we will help you in security.. trump body language wS so nervous

 

[SD 10]

Another reason for Iran’s restrained response last night is the upcoming presidential elections. Iran is betting that Trump gets ousted from office and that a democratic president comes returning to the nuclear deal and gives Iran a fresh chance to negotiate.

Zarif has been told as much in dinner meetings with democratic senators. Thus Iran is going to keep European and American viewpoints on it largely positive just in case Trump gets voted out.

Nonetheless, if history is any indicator then it’s unlikely since last president to get voted out was Bush Sr 30 years ago. The economy is doing well and historically that has been good indicator for re election chances.

If Trump gets re-elected he will not have to worry about his base or re election and can then fufill whatever agenda he wants. It’s clear the war hawks and Zionists want war or at least a toothless Iran.

It’s hard to see Iran staying still under 4 more years of brutal sanctions. Questions arise wether Iran can handle another 4 years with a restive population and sinister plots by external forces.

What will Iran do if Trump gets re-elected? They have ruled out negotiations. This administration full of war hawks is not going to suddenly come baring a nice package to convince Iran to come to the table.

It seems Iran is making a risky gamble to avoid any major escalation until it sees who is going to be president.

TRUMP IS WINNING IT, regardless of response by IRAN!

 

[khansaheeb]

The way the US killed the Iranian general reminds of the Sucker punch. In school some weaker kids used to put their hands up in a guise to show that they don't want to fight and then bang inflict a knock out and laugh about it for a long time. The bully would be embarrassed for a long time too and walk about with his head low all the time complaining it wasn't fair.

 

[GWXP]

Trump in the Situation room during Iranian attack

 

[arashkamangir]

Trump in the Situation room during Iranian attack
View attachment 598803

Clearly stressed...

 

[Aramagedon]

TRUMP IS WINNING IT, regardless of response by IRAN!

Yeah the orange neocon Jew is winning while for the first time since WW2 an occupier yankee base got heavily missiled with no response!

Trump in the Situation room during Iranian attack
View attachment 598803

And much depressed.