Iran seems to reconsider military entrenchment in Syria Read more

[striver44]

Franky, Iran would love nothing better than for people to believe that. It will continue to push its agenda in Syria under the cover whilst you are under the impression it is Russia that has the influence and involved there. However, in reality, nobody in the Israeli and US establishment will ever conclude that. They understand fully that the Russian influence can never penetrate to the depth the Iranian one has. Not in Syria, nor anywhere else in the Middle East where Iranian allies are on the ground. This ostensibly strong Russian influence in Syria is much more superficial than people realise.

well certainly assad already prefered russia than iran, heck even russia now controls who's who in the syrian arab army, something the iranian only could achieve in dreams,even pro iran figures in assad family circles like that makhlouf guy are pushed aside at the behest of russia.

 

[Philosopher]

well certainly assad already prefered russia than iran, heck even russia now controls who's who in the syrian arab army, something the iranian only could achieve in dreams,even pro iran figures in assad family circles like that makhlouf guy are pushed aside at the behest of russia.

These are more wishful thoughts than actual facts on the ground. I can clearly sense your underlying bias which is leading to this distorted view. Not that this is an issue. In the end, events will play themselves out independent to your personal desires. People that want to believe something, find any little thing to justify that belief. Russia will eventually leave Syria, then this mirage will hopefully be lifted for you and the actual realities on the ground will become obvious. But for now, by all means, do continue to believe what you've written.

 

[striver44]

These are more wishful thoughts than actual facts on the ground. I can clearly sense your underlying bias which is leading to this distorted view. Not that this is an issue. In the end, events will play themselves out independent to your personal desires. People that want to believe something, find any little thing to justify that belief. Russia will eventually leave Syria, then this mirage will hopefully be lifted for you and the actual realities on the ground will become obvious. But for now, by all means, do continue to believe what you've written.

ok.

 

[Zhukov]

It is very understandable given the current situation faced by the regime. The author is alao right when he refers to syria is a viable and easy kill zone for israel.
Perhaps iran should abandon plans of having syria controlled by an allied shia dictator and instead let the majority sunnis takeover. A democratic syria would be natural enemy of israel, just like democratic egypt was. Having Turkey as neighbor and ally would propel Syria to become a strong force against Israel.

The new Syria will be anti Israel Just like Jordan, Turkey and Egypt are Enemies of Israel.

 

[khansaheeb]

Article is a joke.

Even if Iran reduces its presence now, it will come back later when the atmosphere is not favorable to Israel to conduct air strikes. Makes sense for Iran to wait Israel out. After all Israel can’t strike inside Syria forever. Once the war is concluded and countries leave Syria, Israel will lose the political cover to do air strikes.

After all, Lebanon is much weaker than Syria with no air defense systems and yet Israel rarely targets HZ there. Why? Reason is simple, lack of political cover and high deterrence established by HZ.

So I favor reduced Iranian footprint in Syria. There is no reason for Iran to have that many military base in Syria.

Also it’s surprising how inept Syrian forces are. Yemen has been able to fire and produce several types of missiles under a blockade while Saudi and US assets fly overhead. Yet Syria can not keep a single point SECERT in its own country. Very strange.

Very much doubt Iran will reduce it's operations in Syria and most likely it will expand operations. With each passing day Iranian forces get closer and closer to striking distance of Israel. The day the Syrians and Iranians are directly attacking Israel is getting closer and closer. Israel is continuously provoking Pakistan too so they can be assured Pakistani weapons are going to be used against them too just as Israel supplies weapons to India.

 

[Aramagedon]

Iran is ready to leave Syria for these terrorists

 

[TNT]

The new Syria will be anti Israel Just like Jordan, Turkey and Egypt are Enemies of Israel.

You should read some history before commenting. Who have fought wars with istael? Iran or arabs? Also is jordan and egypt democratic? How was behavior of egypt when it became democracy and how quickly it was removed, ever cared to observe why?

 

[Kastor]

This is situation normal all fouled up......nothing more, there is covid-19 and Trump's max pressure campaign, it's prudent to pull back and wait...Iran should never, ever, give up it's foothold in Syria permanently.,...if the enemy thinks that all the better. Iran has earned the right to be in Syria, they basically kept Syria from becoming the next Afghanistan. It would have taken decades to put down sectarian infighting.....Iran and Assad knew that, so if you're in for a penny you're in for a pound. ISIS and these other SA and US backed factions have to be completely eliminated for Syria to function as a country again....Of course Israel will do everything to keep that from happening but they're still a piss ant country who couldn't survive a month without the help of the U.S., so their actions won't change the final calculus.

PS: My only concern is that even the Corona virus hasn't dinged Trump's numbers....If I was a planner in Iran I would be looking what the next 4 years under Trump and Pompeo looks like.

 

[Zhukov]

You should read some history before commenting. Who have fought wars with istael? Iran or arabs? Also is jordan and egypt democratic? How was behavior of egypt when it became democracy and how quickly it was removed, ever cared to observe why?

And you should not make such comments about knowledge of history lessons to others brother. May be they have read a few words as well.
BTW Geopolitics cannot be related to history as simple as that. The era in Which you are talking about Arab Israel war was the same era when East and West Germany were Sworn enemies of each other, And Iran was Ruled by a Shah who was as close ally of Pakistan as turkey and China are today. And Shah Government was very close to Israel even they Co-developed Weapons together. their was a Mighty Iraq in the Middle East and a lot of factors.
I sense you are viewing this conflict with sectarian view. In that case i am not going to argue, every one is capable of his own view.
BTW the Real Problem with Iran Syria is that Iran wants access to the Strategic ports of Syria in Mediterranean sea for its Business Interests Primarily and to a lesser extent Direct Border Access to Israel to Threat it directly as it cannot match Israel in Strategic long range Strikes. And its problem with Israel is the legitimacy of its regime stands solely upon the concept of being bulwark of Islamic Resistance against Western influenced world (which clearly its not). If it stops to pursue this, it looses its total Legitimacy of being a revolutionary Islamic republic to its people and to the Muslims who support it. (Even they are starving their people while achieving this and the whole concept of this being valid or not is another discussion)
Current Baathist Syria is the only remnant of the Old Pan Arab Nationalist States who fought the Pro-Arab war against the Jewish Intruders. that was led by Gamal Abdul Nasser and the only surviving Baath State. They are a sort of Political Rivals to Israel state, Bashar is son of Hafiz ul Assad who was primary member of Nexus of Nassir-Qadaf-Hafiz. (BTW all Anti Israel that actually Attacked Israel were Secular Pro-Soviet Union States non of them was any way near Islamic not even as close as us)
And it doesn't matter if these Arab Countries are democracies or not. All Arab Coalition governments that Fought against Israel were non-Democracies.
Also the Democracy of Egypt was largely removed by Support of Saudi Arabia and Syria as it was Muslim Brotherhood government and MB does not stand good with a lot of regional Arab Governments, Only Turkey supports MB. KSA, Jordan, Syria, Iran all of them hates MB. But that's a topic of another time.
Egypt chickened out of Israel Conflict to get its Sinai Peninsula back from Israel (Which was under occupation of ISrael) under the leadership of same Anwar Sadaat that Fought a war against Israel and to date Egypt Blockades Ghaza Strip.
Hafiz ul Asad refuse such Peace with Israel as secret negotiations to hand over Occupied Golan Hights failed as Israel was willing to give away only a part of it and not full. (Golan is Syrian territory occupied by Israel).
And as for Jordan and KSA, They don't need to mess with Israel. They are happy as they are and don't have a legitimacy-identity crisis Like Iran.
At the end of the day, no Muslim Country is Strong or Willing enough to genuinely counter Israel State mate, Everyone is doing topi drama.
And the Wars against Israel by Arabs were Pathetic, Read them in detail with neutrality. Even Pakistan did better in 1971 compared to these 3:1 outnumbering Arab Armies being beaten to death and outmaneuvered by Israel. If we can fend of a 7 times larger enemy, they should also learn to fight for their lands against a 7 times smaller enemy

 

[TNT]

And you should not make such comments about knowledge of history lessons to others brother. May be they have read a few words as well.
BTW Geopolitics cannot be related to history as simple as that. The era in Which you are talking about Arab Israel war was the same era when East and West Germany were Sworn enemies of each other, And Iran was Ruled by a Shah who was as close ally of Pakistan as turkey and China are today. And Shah Government was very close to Israel even they Co-developed Weapons together. their was a Mighty Iraq in the Middle East and a lot of factors.
I sense you are viewing this conflict with sectarian view. In that case i am not going to argue, every one is capable of his own view.
BTW the Real Problem with Iran Syria is that Iran wants access to the Strategic ports of Syria in Mediterranean sea for its Business Interests Primarily and to a lesser extent Direct Border Access to Israel to Threat it directly as it cannot match Israel in Strategic long range Strikes. And its problem with Israel is the legitimacy of its regime stands solely upon the concept of being bulwark of Islamic Resistance against Western influenced world (which clearly its not). If it stops to pursue this, it looses its total Legitimacy of being a revolutionary Islamic republic to its people and to the Muslims who support it. (Even they are starving their people while achieving this and the whole concept of this being valid or not is another discussion)
Current Baathist Syria is the only remnant of the Old Pan Arab Nationalist States who fought the Pro-Arab war against the Jewish Intruders. that was led by Gamal Abdul Nasser and the only surviving Baath State. They are a sort of Political Rivals to Israel state, Bashar is son of Hafiz ul Assad who was primary member of Nexus of Nassir-Qadaf-Hafiz. (BTW all Anti Israel that actually Attacked Israel were Secular Pro-Soviet Union States non of them was any way near Islamic not even as close as us)
And it doesn't matter if these Arab Countries are democracies or not. All Arab Coalition governments that Fought against Israel were non-Democracies.
Also the Democracy of Egypt was largely removed by Support of Saudi Arabia and Syria as it was Muslim Brotherhood government and MB does not stand good with a lot of regional Arab Governments, Only Turkey supports MB. KSA, Jordan, Syria, Iran all of them hates MB. But that's a topic of another time.
Egypt chickened out of Israel Conflict to get its Sinai Peninsula back from Israel (Which was under occupation of ISrael) under the leadership of same Anwar Sadaat that Fought a war against Israel and to date Egypt Blockades Ghaza Strip.
Hafiz ul Asad refuse such Peace with Israel as secret negotiations to hand over Occupied Golan Hights failed as Israel was willing to give away only a part of it and not full. (Golan is Syrian territory occupied by Israel).
And as for Jordan and KSA, They don't need to mess with Israel. They are happy as they are and don't have a legitimacy-identity crisis Like Iran.
At the end of the day, no Muslim Country is Strong or Willing enough to genuinely counter Israel State mate, Everyone is doing topi drama.
And the Wars against Israel by Arabs were Pathetic, Read them in detail with neutrality. Even Pakistan did better in 1971 compared to these 3:1 outnumbering Arab Armies being beaten to death and outmaneuvered by Israel. If we can fend of a 7 times larger enemy, they should also learn to fight for their lands against a 7 times smaller enemy

I agree with most of what u said and its stating the obvious.
My main point was that iran if genuinely wants to restrict Israel then it should do it by letting muslim brotherhood take over Syria, any democratic setup would give power to MB, the same way it hapenned in Egypt. MB would in same terms be enemies of Israel (legitimacy and vote of conservative muslim). Egypt democratic govt was removed as MB was a problem for both arab monarchs and Israel. Iran is no match for Israel and it is only sectarianising this war. Iran wants a corridor to lebanon and hezbolah, not only to scare Israel but exert its influence throughout the area. We all know how iran uses its influence using sectarian means. For Iran its two birds with one arrow, Israel and shia power (iran, iraq, syria, lebanon, yemen) under mullahs to contain sunni arabs.

 

[ashool]

after $50billion or so Iranian taxpayers money dumped into syria, Russia emerge the only victor BIG BIG LOL

gooid dream lucky but zio must be drug dreaming ion natural one must see illusion when use other one but dont use more drug its damage your brain like al asad one lol

well certainly I'm not coercing you to believe anything.

nope the fact that Iran got pushed aside by a relatively newcomer

dont be so happy for some junky news

ok.

are moslem have zio sucker in indonesia lol dont suck to much its bad for ur health u became fat after some times

 

[Zhukov]

I agree with most of what u said and its stating the obvious.
My main point was that iran if genuinely wants to restrict Israel then it should do it by letting muslim brotherhood take over Syria, any democratic setup would give power to MB, the same way it hapenned in Egypt. MB would in same terms be enemies of Israel (legitimacy and vote of conservative muslim). Egypt democratic govt was removed as MB was a problem for both arab monarchs and Israel. Iran is no match for Israel and it is only sectarianising this war. Iran wants a corridor to lebanon and hezbolah, not only to scare Israel but exert its influence throughout the area. We all know how iran uses its influence using sectarian means. For Iran its two birds with one arrow, Israel and shia power (iran, iraq, syria, lebanon, yemen) under mullahs to contain sunni arabs.

Cant say much about MB. As it has no influence on our region. Its a purely Turkish Egyprian Syrian Phenomenon mostly and to lesser extent middle east. But most Arab govts dont like them. And Syria have a long bloody history with them. I dont think MB govt can survive in Syria if it could not get a foothold in Egypt. Egypt KSA UAE Jordan and Baathists will never allow it even if you cut Iran out of the picture. Turkey also is just maintaining a buffer zone and given up any hope of an Islamist govt in Damascus.
As for Syria, It is a mess now. I doubt Iran has such a big role in Syria as of Today as people think. Russia and Turkey are Directly involved and have much bigger influence then Iran. And Assad led Baathists are much stronger then many believe in Damascus, Tartus, Latakia and Allepo City regions of Syria. Its not just a proxy. Trust me talk to Syrians from that area.
Anti Baath Pro MB Sunni people are mostly in Daara, Northern Idlib and Northern Allepo.
Kurdish Sunnis are anti Baath but they are even more secular then Assad. And they are Literally lovers of Israel. So dont count them in general Sunni majority of Syria.
I think Syria Will remain like this unless Baath party is internally destabalized like death of President Bashar or a Coup or something. After that, this country might get divided between Sunni MB and Baath Syria (As for sunni kurds they will never join pro Turkey MB Sunnis, No hope for them)
Iran is just playing along. It has lost the position it once had.

 

[TNT]

Cant say much about MB. As it has no influence on our region. Its a purely Turkish Egyprian Syrian Phenomenon mostly and to lesser extent middle east. But most Arab govts dont like them. And Syria have a long bloody history with them. I dont think MB govt can survive in Syria if it could not get a foothold in Egypt. Egypt KSA UAE Jordan and Baathists will never allow it even if you cut Iran out of the picture. Turkey also is just maintaining a buffer zone and given up any hope of an Islamist govt in Damascus.
As for Syria, It is a mess now. I doubt Iran has such a big role in Syria as of Today as people think. Russia and Turkey are Directly involved and have much bigger influence then Iran. And Assad led Baathists are much stronger then many believe in Damascus, Tartus, Latakia and Allepo City regions of Syria. Its not just a proxy. Trust me talk to Syrians from that area.
Anti Baath Pro MB Sunni people are mostly in Daara, Northern Idlib and Northern Allepo.
Kurdish Sunnis are anti Baath but they are even more secular then Assad. And they are Literally lovers of Israel. So dont count them in general Sunni majority of Syria.
I think Syria Will remain like this unless Baath party is internally destabalized like death of President Bashar or a Coup or something. After that, this country might get divided between Sunni MB and Baath Syria (As for sunni kurds they will never join pro Turkey MB Sunnis, No hope for them)
Iran is just playing along. It has lost the position it once had.

MB actually has huge influence throughout the muslim world. They represent political Islam and wants to promote Islamic values through democracy. A copy of them exists in the subcontinent called jamaat e Islami. The arabs monarchs would ofcourse hate them because they are the number 1 danger to their monarchy. Political islamic parties denounce dictatorship and monarchy as unIslamic and aim to remove dictators in the MENA region. I have met many syrian nd ur right about the divisions that u explained.
There was a chance of an Islamist govt in syria when the likes of saudi and others were supporting rebels and russia had not intervened. Infact bashar ulasad was on verge of defeat and then russia showed up. Iran would want syria to remain under assad so they can have their influence. Turkey is involved but limited to idlib, while Iran has much more hold in syria.
To me it also seems syria might be divided but that would be opposed by iran. Turkey could have played a much bigger role if they had succeeded in peace negotiations with Kurds. Before this mess, Turkey was making gains in negotiations with Kurds, the pkk leader in Turkish jail was heading it. Now division seems the only solution, though another battle for more area by each group is yet to begin.

 

[Zhukov]

MB actually has huge influence throughout the muslim world. They represent political Islam and wants to promote Islamic values through democracy. A copy of them exists in the subcontinent called jamaat e Islami. The arabs monarchs would ofcourse hate them because they are the number 1 danger to their monarchy. Political islamic parties denounce dictatorship and monarchy as unIslamic and aim to remove dictators in the MENA region. I have met many syrian nd ur right about the divisions that u explained.
There was a chance of an Islamist govt in syria when the likes of saudi and others were supporting rebels and russia had not intervened. Infact bashar ulasad was on verge of defeat and then russia showed up. Iran would want syria to remain under assad so they can have their influence. Turkey is involved but limited to idlib, while Iran has much more hold in syria.
To me it also seems syria might be divided but that would be opposed by iran. Turkey could have played a much bigger role if they had succeeded in peace negotiations with Kurds. Before this mess, Turkey was making gains in negotiations with Kurds, the pkk leader in Turkish jail was heading it. Now division seems the only solution, though another battle for more area by each group is yet to begin.

But the Irony is Even its claimed popularity, Jamat e Islami is just a Niche party in Pakistan. grabbing some seats here and their. You might love what they say in congregations but they lack something that forces you to vote for PTI PML or PPP or support Army Rule.
Even though we are a pretty free society and choose what we want compared to Arabs.

 

[Kastor]

I agree with most of what u said and its stating the obvious.
My main point was that iran if genuinely wants to restrict Israel then it should do it by letting muslim brotherhood take over Syria, any democratic setup would give power to MB, the same way it hapenned in Egypt. MB would in same terms be enemies of Israel (legitimacy and vote of conservative muslim). Egypt democratic govt was removed as MB was a problem for both arab monarchs and Israel. Iran is no match for Israel and it is only sectarianising this war. Iran wants a corridor to lebanon and hezbolah, not only to scare Israel but exert its influence throughout the area. We all know how iran uses its influence using sectarian means. For Iran its two birds with one arrow, Israel and shia power (iran, iraq, syria, lebanon, yemen) under mullahs to contain sunni arabs.

I'm sorry, but you're wrong about Iran's ambitions. Iran's ambitions has always been security, Syria and Hezbollah are tools for that security.....they're allies, or proxies whatever you want to call them but the Idea of Iran expansionism is a myth brought on by Saudi Arabia.....yes the same guys who are afraid of their own shadow and have sold the entire region to the west due to their fears. Iran needs to be able to project power in Lebanon and Syria because we are already surrounded by enemies and turncoats....our own Muslim neighbors are the enablers to the west to ransack our region.....look at what they've done to the Muslim countries in the past 2 decades. Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Egypt, Libya, Yemen.....look at the those failed states, even Egypt can't balance the budget without getting aid from outside countries, none of those countries are the handiwork of Iran....they're all the work of the allies of SA, UAE , Qatar and all the other sheikdom/kingdoms that have sold our people to the West.....Iran is the only country that has pushed back! Why can't our Muslim brothers get behind that is beyond me.....maybe being a war torn region filled with vassal states is what they like.