Iran: No oil through strait if sanctions applied

[Sugarcane]

US President Barak Obama has signed into law fresh economic sanctions against Iran's Central Bank in an apparent bid to punish foreign companies and banks that do business with the Iranian financial institution.

The bill, signed on Saturday, requires foreign financial firms to make a choice between doing business with Iran's Central Bank and oil sector or with the US financial sector.

The legislation will not go into effect for six months in a bid to provide oil markets with time to adjust.

It also includes a "waiver," allowing the president to suspend the sanctions in case he decides that the anti-Iran attempt will adversely impact national security interests of the US.

The inclusion of the “waiver” in the bill reflects major concerns among American lawmakers that the bullying approach of the US against the Islamic Republic will backfire across the globe.

Meanwhile, energy experts say the sanctions could lead to a major hike in crude oil prices and disrupt the interests of the US and its allies that depend on oil imports from Iran.

The United States has already barred its own banks from dealing with the Iranian Central Bank. Thus, the new US sanctions are intended to dissuade other foreign banks from doing transactions with Iran's Central Bank by threatening to cut off their access to US financial institutions.

Facing major economic troubles, the United States is reportedly the world's largest debtor nation.

The sovereign debts of the US government to foreign states and institutions reached USD 15 trillion at the end of 2011. With the steady accumulation of interest on the huge debt, there is serious skepticism about the US ability to pay it off.

A number of economic experts believe that US government will soon face bankruptcy and American citizens will have to endure more severe financial crisis in the years ahead.

US sanctions, as well as unilateral embargoes imposed on Iran's energy and financial sectors by Britain and Canada came after the International Atomic Energy Agency issued a report on Iranian nuclear program early November, accusing Tehran of seeking to weaponize its nuclear technology.

Despite the widely publicized claims by the US, Israel and some of their European allies that Iran's nuclear program may include a military diversion, Iran steadfastly insists on its civilian nature, arguing that as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and a member of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), it has the right to develop and acquire nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.

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The commander of the Iranian Navy says the message of the ongoing Velayat 90 naval maneuver is that arrogant powers have no place in the Persian Gulf region.


Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari made the remarks during a visit to the domestically- manufactured Jamaran destroyer on Saturday.

“We (Iran) are diplaying our defensive and preventive capabilities in the free waters through the Velayat 90 maneuver,” he said.

He noted that the presence of foreign navies in the region causes regional insecurity and emphasized that the establishment of sustainable security in the region in cooperation with neighboring countries is one of the goals of the naval maneuver.

Iran's Navy launched the massive 10-day Velayat 90 naval exercise on December 24, covering an area stretching from the east of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Aden.

EU foreign ministers failed in their attempts to enforce an embargo on Iran's oil exports during a meeting in Brussels on December 1, about a week after the United States, Britain, and Canada imposed unilateral sanctions on the Islamic Republic's energy and financial sectors over Tehran's nuclear program.

Iran has warned that it can respond to proposed Western oil sanctions and threats against the Islamic Republic by choking the oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz.

Sayyari announced on December 30 that the country's naval forces can block the strategic Strait of Hormuz if necessary, saying, “Our (Iran's) intention is to bring stability and security to the region, and we would like to show everyone that we can provide security in the region without a need for extra-regional powers.”

And Iranian First Vice President Mohammad-Reza Rahimi warned on December 27 that the imposition of oil sanctions against the Islamic Republic would prompt Tehran to prevent oil from passing through the strategic route.

“If they impose sanctions on Iran's oil, not even a drop of oil will be allowed through the Strait of Hormuz,” he added.

 

[Al Bhatti]

December 30, 2011

Iran’s Hormuz threat doesn’t hold water

Shutting of strait will backfire on its own oil trade even if it creates bottleneck for others

The latest in a series of Iranian threats to block the vital Strait of Hormuz triggered a sharp response from the US Navy, although there appeared to be little chance that Tehran would make good on its warnings.

Despite threats to close the narrow waterway if Western nations tighten sanctions on Iran by imposing an oil embargo, the Islamic Republic needs the strait at least as much as its adversaries do, Iranian and foreign analysts said.

Iran, which feels threatened by the presence of US bases and warships in the region, has warned for years that it would choke off the Strait of Hormuz in case of war or economic sanctions.

The passage at the entrance to the Arabian Gulf hosts a daily caravan of tankers that transport roughly a third of the world's oil shipments.

And Iran itself — which has enjoyed record oil profits over the past five years but is faced with a dwindling number of oil customers — relies on the Hormuz Strait as the departure gate for its biggest client: China.

Telling assessment

"We would be committing economical suicide by closing off the Hormuz Strait," said an Iranian Oil Ministry official who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject. "Oil money is our only income, so we would be spectacularly shooting ourselves in the foot by doing that."

Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a political scientist running for parliament from the camp of clerics and commanders opposing Ahmadinejad, said it is "good politics" for Iran to respond to US threats with threats of its own.

"But our threat will not be realised," Ardestani said. "We are just responding to the US, nothing more."

The European Union, encouraged by the United States, is expected to decide in January whether to boycott Iranian crude. And countries such as Japan and South Korea are under increasing US pressure to stop buying oil from Iran.

A closure could prompt a spike in oil prices, analysts said, further damaging the troubled world economy.

In addition to the threats, Iran has started a 10-day naval exercise to demonstrate what it calls ‘asymmetrical warfare', a military doctrine aimed at defeating US aircraft carriers in a potential Gulf conflict by using swarms of rocket-mounted speedboats and a barrage of missiles.

US response

In Bahrain, home of the US Navy's 5th Fleet, a spokeswoman for the fleet said no country would be allowed to block the strategically crucial strait. The Navy is "ready to counter malevolent actions," Lt. Rebecca Rebarich added. "Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations," she said.

A State Department spokesman downplayed the warnings as "more rhetoric" from the Iranians. "As the 5th Fleet has said, and I believe other governments have also said, it's absolutely critical that there be freedom of navigation in these international waters," Mark Toner, said on Wednesday.

Strategic advantage

Oil producers have not been sitting idle in the face of decades of Iranian threats to shut off the only regional oil transportation corridor.

The UAE has nearly finished a 2.5 million-barrel-a-day pipeline circumventing the Arabian Gulf. UAE officials say the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline Project is a "strategic pass", circumventing the Hormuz Strait in case Iran closes the chokepoint.

Iranian officials insist that the UAE pipeline and others that are being constructed in the region will not lessen the strategic importance of the Hormuz Strait. But they have raised the issue repeatedly, which analysts say is a sign that they are, in fact, nervous about it.

gulfnews : Iran

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December 31, 2011

Conflict unlikely to escalate despite mounting tension, analysts say

Strait of Hormuz rhetoric attributed to electoral compulsions in US, France and Iran

An Iranian threat to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz if more sanctions were imposed on Tehran and US warnings have raised concerns of a possible regional military conflict.

However, experts believe the war of words is just part of political manoeuvres ahead of elections in Iran, US and France.

Though the current timing is "a golden opportunity" to launch a military action against Iran, they added, there is also a long list of reasons for not following that course.

Mahjoub Zweiri, an expert on Iranian affairs, said the support to Iran among the people of the region is "at unprecedented low" levels. Also, there are no US or British troops in the range of Iranian attack in Iraq or Afghanistan.

Yet, "there are personal desires for several leading politicians in the world not to create a [new] war in the world".

Next year's presidential elections are stopping both US President Barack Obama and French President Nicolas Sarkozy from engaging in a military conflict, he noted. The economic situation in the West is also a priority to its leaders.

Nervous

Israel, which feels nervous from Tehran's nuclear programme, will also avoid attacking Iran under the current circumstances.

If Israel does, "this means that it reminds the world that there is an enemy to the [Arab] region called Israel…. It will return, once again, Iran to the region's focus and people [will] sympathise with Iran," Zweiri said.

On the other hand, Iran is using the rhetoric of closing Hormuz with an eye on the parliamentary election. Nearly one-third of the global oil shipments pass through the strategic straight of Hormuz.

"Iran has an unstable front in Iraq and a critical front in Syria. Is it reasonable for Iran to open a new front in the Gulf?" said Khalid Dakheel, a Saudi political scientist. "I rule out such a conflict," said Amir Musavi, Director of Tehran-based Strategic Studies and international relations Centre. "Iran has many options and many papers in hand to use," he added.

gulfnews : Conflict unlikely to escalate despite mounting tension, analysts say

 

[Tshering22]

Just as I thought.... when the chips are down, india will choose to side with the Anglos and turn against Iran instead of maintaining it's "non-aligned" policy against US pressure.

If you had a spark of logic, you'd note that the Reds in your country and us would be the first major economies to suffer an oil blockade in short term.

Funny you're the one talking all about 'non-alignment' considering that you'd be the first country to invade any country that poses a blockade to your oil resources.

 

[Tshering22]

I am surprised how fast they turn their back against there supposed friend..no shortage of members here singing Indo-Persian brotherhood when India is clearly siding with the anglos. Ghaddai , Saddam Hussien and the entire Africa may have been amused by indian dancing but rest assured they would never thought close relationship with India would be of some strategic use against the popular perception created by new delhi.

This was obvious. When someone's growing economy gets hurt because of a third country intervening a blockade, any country in our place would consider national interests first. If Iran was in our place, it would also consider the same against a third country threatening to slow its oil supply and economy.

But naturally, I don't expect you to understand this.

Just in case you didn't know, more than half the world gets its oil from the route. This means you'd see more than two dozen navies docking in the region with their military assets if there's a blockade other than us of course, including your "Taller than stars and deeper than galaxies" friend China.

Read what Mosa had to say first before blabbering garbage against us Indians.

closing the strait is an act of war against GCC countries not against the "west" since even China will be affected by this. If they do that they should expect a counter-strike.

Please tell them. They're (the Reds and the Pakistanis) are so obsessed with taunting us Indians that they are ready to overlook the fact that this move would damage their own economies. This is applicable more to the Chinese members here who have a much bigger economy than us to worry about which obviously depends on oil for sustenance of growth.

 

[nomi007]

can Iran have ability to stop the traffic through strait.
2nd USA must to resolve the Iranian issue through talks not by aggression

 

[Sugarcane]

Iran's navy has successfully test-fired its first home-built medium-range anti-radar missile during the ongoing major naval maneuvers near the strategic Strait of Hormuz.


The new Iranian surface-to-air missile was launched Sunday during the “power phase” of the massive 10-day drills, said Rear Admiral Mahmoud Mousavi, the spokesman for Iranian Navy's Velayat 90 war games.

The mid-range missile, designed and manufactured by Iranian experts, is equipped with state-of-the-art technology and an intelligent system that enables it to target radio emission sources and thwart jammers, Mousavi added.

On the second day of the power phase, the naval forces will launch anti-surface torpedoes from the Ghadir-class submarines. The Iranian marine units will also be deployed aboard sea vessels and target radar-evading drones by shoulder-launched missiles, the Iranian commander noted.

On the concluding day of the power phase on Monday, a major contingent of the surface, subsurface and naval aviation units will organize into a new tactical arrangement to prepare for the last phase of the naval drills, Mousavi said.

Iran's Navy launched the massive 10-day naval exercises on December 24. The military maneuvers cover an area from east of the strategic Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Aden.

The military drills take place in line with a recent directive by the Leader of the Islamic Revolution Seyyed Ali Khamenei, instructing Iranian armed forces to maintain total readiness to defend the nation against any potential threats.

Iran maintains that the maneuvers are defensive in nature and intend to convey a message of peace and friendship to the countries of the region. It has also extended a public invitation to regional states to hold joint naval drills with Iranian forces.

 

[lem34]

can Iran have ability to stop the traffic through strait.
2nd USA must to resolve the Iranian issue through talks not by aggression

Its difficult for Iran to talk because american policy is dictated from Tel Aviv

 

[somebozo]

shushhh you are blowing the Iranian bubble.

With senseless arguments like these the ayatollah with zero strategic and demographic knowledge make sure they are more isolated in the world with more countries especially their supposed friends like China and India - both of which are energy hungry economies to side with the US for their own interests..

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Its difficult for Iran to talk because american policy is dictated from Tel Aviv

These days, Riyadh has also joined the party...and so has Beijing...Poor America..being dictated from communist and royal morachs!

 

[500]

can Iran have ability to stop the traffic through strait.

no.

vs.

 

[longbrained]

no.

Yes,

Israeli Frigate hit by Iranian arsenal's smallest anti ship missile fired by Hizbullah:

 

[asad71]

Before It's News

Conflict Between Iran And West ‘The Greatest Danger’ Of 2012 – Russia’s UN Envoy

Sat Dec 31 2011 21:10


Vitaly Churkin (RIA Novosti / Ruslan Krivobok

Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, Vitaly Churkin, believes that the conflict looming between Iran and Western countries poses the “greatest danger” in the upcoming year.

rt.com

Iran’s recent threats to block a vital oil route if the West places sanctions on its oil exports, followed by the US’s sharp response to the threat, have attracted the attention of the international community and raised concerns that the events might push the two nations to the brink of war.

With 2012 just days away, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, Vitaly Churkin, has been talking to RT about Russian and UN Security Council strategy in this conflict and other pivotal events of the year such as the Arab Spring and the turmoil in the Middle East.

“This is a very dangerous scenario,” said Churkin, commenting on the Iranian-Western stand-off. But “we do believe that a peaceful solution is possible,” he said, pointing out that to avoid serious consequences the negotiations route needs to be followed.

He added that Russia shares other countries’ concerns about Iran’s possibly developing nuclear weapons but does not “accept the proposition that the best way to prevent a war is to start a war.”

“Our consistent stand, our effort, is going to be targeted at doing whatever we can in order to prevent this scenario of regional catastrophe being carried out in 2012,” he explained.

Another pivotal event of the year was the civil war in Libya, and though the conflict is over, Security Council activity is not, Churkin said.

A number of Security Council delegations, including the Russian delegation, have called for an investigation into civilian casualties in Libya. The move came after a disturbing report published by the New York Times claimed there had been dozens of civilian deaths as a result of NATO strikes.

Churkin explained that an urgent investigation is needed first of all to help those who might have suffered from the strikes. He said Russia will continue to pursue the clarification of these events within a matter of weeks, not months, which would be the case “if we rely on those other investigations.”

He also promised that the move does not have any anti-NATO implications. “We don`t see anything anti-NATO in this. After all, NATO is a partner of the United Nations and NATO has been acting on the basis of a Security Council mandate, so the Security Council should also play an active role in having this matter clarified.”

Apart from the question of an investigation, Churkin said the Security Council is working quite harmoniously on a range of issues connected with Libya. He mentioned “looking into the dangers of weapons left unattended in the course of the conflict” and “helping Libyans to rebuild their political and economical structures.”

Keeping track of weapons-trafficking from Libya to other countries, especially to Syria, is one of the matters the Security Council is working hard on Churkin said.

“We are told that the most dangerous of those weapons in terms of terrorist use have so far not been detected outside Libya,” he added.

When asked about Libyan militants operating in Syria, Churkin said it is no surprise. “There are some there trying to stir trouble. What usually happens when there is crisis, all sorts of extremists and terrorist elements show up.” He recalled the recent terror attacks in Damascus and reports from Lebanon saying Al-Qaeda groups had been spotted moving into Syria.

He said that Russia has an extremely clear stand in this conflict, which is to help “the people of that country find a peaceful political solution to the crisis.”

“Two weeks ago Russia introduced a draft resolution to encourage the political process by trying to encourage the Arab League’s monitoring mission which is being deployed now in Syria. We are basing our proposal on the presidential statement which was adopted by consensus by the SC on August 3, which called on everybody to stop the violence in Syria and which stated that the solution to the Syrian crisis could only be found through a Syrian-led all-inclusive political process.”

Speaking about the situation in Syria, Churkin also pointed out that it is unreasonable to push for reforms in a country where a military conflict is going on.

“The sooner the crisis, the military clashes, stop the sooner the international community will be in a position to demand that the Syrian authorities move along the reform track as soon as possible,” he explained, adding that until the conflict is over, talk of reform is a “theoretical conversation.”

Speaking about Security Council strategy in 2012, Churkin said that it would try both to solve current problems and avert any new ones. “Preventive diplomacy is a very big concept for the SC and for the UN, but we also try to encourage the work which is going on regarding some longstanding conflicts,” he pointed out.

 

[500]

Yes,

Israeli Frigate hit by Iranian arsenal's smallest anti ship missile fired by Hizbullah:

This is not Israeli frigate.

In 2006 war Hezbollah used C802 missiles, best missiles in Iran's arsenal. One missile hit Israeli corvete minorly damaging it, second sinked Egyptian cargo ship. But it was Iran's terrorist proxy. If Iran will fire misisles at cargo ships it will officially declared as rogue pirate state and US will attack Iranian oil assets in return, destroying all Iranian economy. Iran perfectly knows it. Thats why Iran always acts only through terrosist proxies.

 

[lem34]

But if Iran is attacked we can assume hezbollah will attack Israel

 

[Tshering22]

But if Iran is attacked we can assume hezbollah will attack Israel

I thought this was a thread about Hormuz strait and whether Iran will block it or not.

It is simply a warning. Do you know how pissed GCC will be? The entire GCC would go to war with Iran and it would be chaos in middle east. Even though you're not a stable economy but believe me; oil prices at $300 a barrel won't be good new for anyone.

Not only GCC but ALL those countries that rely on Hormuz for their oil supplies will turn against the clerical regime of Iran. That's the last thing all people want in this region. As such middle east is always on boil.

 

[T-Rex]

But if Iran is attacked we can assume hezbollah will attack Israel

Hezbollah is expert in defensive role, so I wouldn't count on that. Small rocket attacks on israel has absolutely no effect on israel's ability to wage wars. Therefore, what Hezbollah does will have no bearing on the events, but it will certainly boost the morale of the Iranians.