Iran has military advantage over US and allies in Middle East

[mohsen]

Good post here. Another factor mentioned in the US media and Trump is that a future deal must include Iran's missiles, which is a non-starter for Iran in any future negotiations (if they were to manifest).

The only future deal is based on US recognizing Iran's hegemony and nothing else, neither nuclear, nor missile.

Iran has many options to make American's presence in the region so costly that they couldn't afford, the same way Iran did it to them in Iraq after 2003 US raid.

 

[GWXP]

Iran will probably never 'stabilize' its influence in Iraq because of many factors: Iraqi nationalism which is the strongest and US presence with its Vatican-size embassy. But Iranian influence will always remain in Iraq, it was there during Saddam, it was there during US invasion/occupation. Iran has been influencing Iraq for 3,000 years, more or less.

If anything Iran can always invade Iraq and establish a pupet regime. There is no longer Saddam Hussein to resist Iranian invasion.

 

[dalvash]

If anything Iran can always invade Iraq and establish a pupet regime. There is no longer Saddam Hussein to resist Iranian invasion.

That's really exaggerating Iran's aims and capabilities. Iran doesn't have the means to take over Iraq and the surrounding countries would resist.

 

[GWXP]

That's really exaggerating Iran's aims and capabilities. Iran doesn't have the means to take over Iraq and the surrounding countries would resist.

Aim is to prevent Iraq from becoming anti-Iranian....and if invasion is the last resort it can be done. Iran had the means to take over Iraq in 1980s and have the means today....

 

[925boy]

If anything Iran can always invade Iraq and establish a pupet regime. There is no longer Saddam Hussein to resist Iranian invasion.

That's really exaggerating Iran's aims and capabilities. Iran doesn't have the means to take over Iraq and the surrounding countries would resist.

Tbh, i dunno if its that Iran has the capabilities to take over Iraq today OR that Iraq has many vulnerabilities Iran can take advantage of to have control/domination of Iraq?

IMO Most of Iran's advantages come from taking advantage of other's mistakes. this is also why Iran has more influence than US in the ME today even though US has more resources than Iran has.

Iraq- Iran took advantage of US mistakes after it invaded Saddam in 2003
Lebanon- Iran took advantage of Israel's mistakes in the 80s
Yemen- Iran took advantage of FOOLISH Saudi mistakes(trying to control and invade a large mountainous xenophobic country)
Syria- Iran took advantage of Assad's + NATO mistakes(weak military and poor suppression of protests).

What i consistently notice is that Iran is WAY more patient and calculated in its actions than most regional players. Iran will wait as long a s necessary for certain thing(s) to fall into place b4 making a big move.

 

[Saddam Hussein]

In response to sanctions, Iran will withdraw from the nuclear deal and start enriching uranium with more advanced centrifuges and will build a bomb and an ICBM----so this should pressure Washington to do something. Better for US to return to the nuclear deal.

Iran will solidify control of Iraq and Syria and then will start working to destabilize Saudi Arabia- put simply after Iran dominates Iraq and Syria- next step is to knock down Saudi Arabia which is oil rich and matters to the world.

Obama knew how to at least contain Iranian nuclear ambitions. Trump is a stupid and inexperienced businessman who thinks his stick and carrots policy will work.

Look at this genius analysis, must have an IQ of 200. Major statements about several different topics, of which each can be discussed in 500-page papers with varying conclusions. Meanwhile, he uses the word 'control' because it's that black and white.

 

[GWXP]

Leaked cables reveal scale of Iran's influence in Iraq
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/18/leaked-cables-reveal-scale-of-irans-influence-in-iraq

 

[Sina-1]

Look at this genius analysis, must have an IQ of 200. Major statements about several different topics, of which each can be discussed in 500-page papers with varying conclusions. Meanwhile, he uses the word 'control' because it's that black and white.

Exactly! Nobody is controlling anyone here. If the mightiest military can’t control a country then sure as hell iran can’t either.
Iraq and Iran have aligned interests and therefore there is a broad cooperation. If there where no vassal states (read Saudi and UAE) then all countries in the region would cooperate with each other. Because globally, the interest of the region is completely aligned. Just as it is for Europe. Nobody is suggesting that Germany for example is controlling Sweden.

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

It wasn't 20 years, for example in Iraq the so called fight was over after 3 months, but these weren't war, just a childish playing, and yet costed them $8 trillion. a fight in which their soldiers die in masses, their carrier sink and their aircrafts fall like mosquitoes is way more expensive.

it was one of this years speeches, I don't have time to search through all of it, you can do it yourself.
their think thank has ran a simulation.

Iraqis, particularly Republican Guard forces, have really put up a fight; however, their air force and air defenses were no match with the invading forces. Both the Iraqis and Afghanis put up a bruising guerrilla war that has stopped the regime change wars, and resulted massive political changes in the USA. Someone like Trump would not have had a chance of being elected in the USA had it not been the casualties, the resources wasted, and war fatigue that came out of these 2 wars.

 

[925boy]

Iran winning Middle East struggle with its use of proxies, report says
Tehran’s hybrid war strategy has secured it an advantage over US and allies in region, who have no effective response, according to major report by UK think tank
By TOI STAFF7 November 2019, 10:12 pm 2

• Members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) march during the annual military parade marking the anniversary of the outbreak of the 1980-1988 war with Iraq, in the capital Tehran on September 22, 2018. (AFP/STR)
  
  
  Iran has secured a military advantage over the United States and its allies in the Middle East, largely due to its ability to wage war through third parties, a Thursday report said.
  
  Tehran’s use of proxies allows it to fight complex regional struggles while minimizing risk and damage to its own forces, and is more important to Iran than its conventional army, missiles or nuclear program, according to the London-based think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies.
  
  “Iran contests and wins wars ‘fought among the people,’ not wars between states. It avoids symmetrical state-on-state conflict, knowing that it will be outgunned. Instead, it pursues asymmetrical warfare through non-state partners,” said John Chipman, the group’s director.
  
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  “No state has been so active, and perhaps as effective, as Iran in regional conflicts in modern times,” the report said.
  
  Its hybrid war strategy involves cooperating extensively with both state and non-state actors.
  
  Iran’s militia forces may count 200,000 fighters, although Tehran exerts varying degrees of control over the different groups.
  
  
  
  
  Iran-linked fighters with a portrait of Iran’s late leader Ayatollah Khomeini in Baghdad, Iraq, during a parade marking Quds Day, July 25, 2014. (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban)
  Its strategy and tactics vary in each country, for example, its use of Hezbollah in Lebanon is different from its use of the al-Quds force in Syria.
  
  The use of non-state actors is well-suited to the modern Middle East, where conflicts are not typically waged by clear-cut state actors, but by an array of local players in weak and divided countries. The region’s wars are largely fought out of sight of international audiences, and are not subject to international law.
  
  Tehran has been developing the system of fighting for 40 years, entrenching itself in fragile neighboring states and often making use of Shia forces that have a connection to Iran.
  
  Its position outside the international community is an advantage, giving it an outsider status that is attractive to minorities, Chipman said.
  
  “Iran’s charisma in the eyes of its partners derives from its survival as an outlaw and alternative. While inclusion in the international order would have economic benefits for Tehran, it would require constraints to be placed on the remote warfare capability of the Quds Force. Iran and the Quds Force cannot be both revolutionary and part of the international order,” he said.
  
  
  
  
  Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani, center, attends a meeting with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Revolutionary Guard commanders in Tehran, Iran, September 18, 2016. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)
  The international community has not found an effective counter to the strategy, since conventional military power is ineffective against the Iranian-linked non-state actors.
  
  The lackluster international response, especially from the US, has spurred Israel and Sunni Arab states to respond themselves to the threat from Tehran.
  
  After the conflicts end, however, it is unclear if Iran will be able to finance reconstruction efforts, and how effective its strategy will be in times of peace.
  
  Syria provides a clear example of this strategy successfully put into action. Iranian forces have propped up the Assad regime, and are now embedding themselves in Syria’s government and security infrastructures.
  
  It has been relatively inexpensive for Tehran, which can deny its presence and actions in Syria while it further threatens Israel and opposes the US there.
  
  Bashar Assad’s survival was a priority for Iran because Syria gives Tehran better access to Israel and Jordan, and aids its efforts in Iraq, the report said.
  
  Iran believes its success in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and elsewhere have given it an advantage over Israel, the US and Arab states, and will likely give it confidence going forward, the report said.
  
  The think tank’s 18-month study, titled “Iran’s Networks of Influence in the Middle East,” was based on field work, interviews and open source information analysis.
  

https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-winning-middle-east-struggle-with-its-use-of-proxies-report-says/

No one is laughing with you bro.