The original plan was (Pak Yuyu era):
Pontianak : Hawk (all of them)
Madiun : F16, T-50, SU35
Makassar : Sukhoi
Pekanbaru : F16
Kupang : F16V (1 ska)
Biak : TBA (most likely F16 from madiun will move here while the new F16V-1 SKA will replace it)
Replacing SU35 with EF will put her in Madiun. For the F16V its already clear where AU want to put them. Now the tricky part is the Rafale, if they meant to be an alternative for F16V then Kupang & Madiun will have it. Then again the escalation of threat has changed, idk if they are going to new strategic fighter placement plan or not. What I know for sure is Java will have the most complete type of fighter (TT/TS).
Now if we get the EF it would be foolish to get Rafale too, so most likely its going to be EF & F16
If we go with 32+ or 24+ (the was a statement that we going to reduce the plan for viper to 24) Rafale then it most likely be only Rafale.
The F35 backlog (if we order now) was at 2028+ where the F16V was at 2026+, Rafale would be 2024+ and EF to reach IOC/FOC stage if we decided to upgrade would be 2022+. Strategically you guys can do the math in time table manner on how we going to tackle this readyness state. I believe this is where the Hawk life extension program was announced as a stop gap (hawk expected to be retired in 2024-2025). Tho Im pretty sure only handfull of Hawk will enter the extension program, my guess its around 12-14 Fighters or so.
French has been trying to offload their old Rafale to keep the production line open for years to come and to welcome their new F4 version (upgraded avionic & new engine). And if we decided to get a mix of used and new one it would be an advantage for them in this race as it might be the fastest to reach IOC/FOC stage, but it might break our bank in the process
So what is going to be? Lets wait sambil ngupi