Indonesia Defence Forum

[Nike]

with our bebas aktif policy, and our eratic behaviour in arms procurement it would be hard as same level as ausie or even singapore in terms of connectivity and network centrict warfare, perhaps next 5 years will be on par with them, dont bother their ATM tho, their opinion is like "satu jari menunjuk orang lain, empat jari menunjuk diri sendiri"

Don't know but our arms procurement though look very erratic but not at the level is unmanageable. Most of our big item assets is looking at NATO pattern and had connectivity among the system. Bremen class had using Hensoldt system among their radar and navigation units, thing the precedence of system we will acquire for Itver Huitveld class. U 209 is something we are very familiar with. Leopard 2 is a common platform in European mainland. In helicopters units we are got main system like Bell 412, Eurocopter with established logistic system and close relationship with the manufacturing. For artillery system we are only acquired common platform with many countries as the user like M109 and Cesar. For fighter we are only acquired common system like legacy Flanker and F16. Compared them to special one time Made system used by Malaysia and at some level Singapore we are still okay though.

 

[Raduga]

4 unit of apache and all of the NBO-105 fleet are grounded due to frequent accident lately.

 

[Being-Art]

4 unit of apache and all of the NBO-105 fleet are grounded due to frequent accident lately.

usually there are those who ops, back up and enter maintenance. Once the cycle continues

Because Apache is sophisticated stuff, so the level of readiness is tightened

 

[Chestnut]

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news...onesia-amid-increased-tension-with-china.html

There is some interesting words in there and I quote;

"Defense Secretary Mark Esper expressed his intention to visit Indonesia to strengthen the cooperation through arms sales despite recent reluctance from the Indonesian side."

I was wondering what make us reluctance to do it? Is it because of this?

https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/the-general-holding-back-better-us-indonesia-ties/

"He less popular in the United States, where the former special forces general remains on a blacklist for his alleged involvement in human rights abuses dating back to the 1990’s. That ban is complicating strategic relations at a time when both nations look for partners to counter China’s rising military might in the region."

"The US opposes the Russian deal and while Prabowo is still undecided on going ahead with last October’s announced purchase of two squadrons of US-built F-16 fighters, buying the unfamiliar French aircraft as a compromise would leave the air force with a costly third logistics tail."

I heard/read Pak Prabowo prolly trying to negotiate "replacement" deal to Russia for the SU35 contract if we decided not to go for it. Assuming this is right then perhaps the "trade deal" to buy F16 in favor of allowing us to get SU35 didnt go thru. His active trips to Europe most likely trying to find better solution for TNI AU other than F16. Our counter offer to get F35 instead of F16 seems to be responded rather cold by US. Looking at Pak Prabowo character that F16 purchase can be seen as a "lost" on his part, and loosing is not an option in Kopassus dictionary. So this is going to be interesting show afterall.

For me the 48 Rafale plan he mentioned was intended to be one solution fits all kinda thing. By doing this F16 plan will be out (32 Fghters) and the SU35 cancelation (11 fighter with future plan to have total of 16) would be somehow justify. The downside is the fighter cost/armaments cost/logistic cost. US knows this and they can see the local reaction on the plan to get pre-loved Typhoon as well. So far US diplomacy is still on the strong side and has great leverage to push in, thus making the options Prabowo seek is more limited then it looks.

It just my speculation. Tho I think the ball is in the US side now, the move they made might decide the outcome. Looking at Pak Prabowo character they need to be careful on what they said/do. He has rather high temper and dont react well to threat. As for me I personaly dont like Typhoon if we plan to have it ONLY as stop gap. We bought used F16 as stop gap and now typhoon? Geezzz if we going to reshuffle the deck might as well go with 48 Rafale and get it over with. Beside I kinda like the SPECTRA in Rafale, I think todays combat fighter is come down to EW capability.

Going back to what Dr. Conie Bakrie said in that interview, I think she was par for the course on this one.

Prabowo is letting his own bias and personal politics get in the way of end user interests. Not because he is getting bribed, but rather out of his own spite. That's just very unprofessional in my book.

 

[umigami]

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news...onesia-amid-increased-tension-with-china.html

There is some interesting words in there and I quote;

"Defense Secretary Mark Esper expressed his intention to visit Indonesia to strengthen the cooperation through arms sales despite recent reluctance from the Indonesian side."

I was wondering what make us reluctance to do it? Is it because of this?

https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/the-general-holding-back-better-us-indonesia-ties/

"He less popular in the United States, where the former special forces general remains on a blacklist for his alleged involvement in human rights abuses dating back to the 1990’s. That ban is complicating strategic relations at a time when both nations look for partners to counter China’s rising military might in the region."

"The US opposes the Russian deal and while Prabowo is still undecided on going ahead with last October’s announced purchase of two squadrons of US-built F-16 fighters, buying the unfamiliar French aircraft as a compromise would leave the air force with a costly third logistics tail."

I heard/read Pak Prabowo prolly trying to negotiate "replacement" deal to Russia for the SU35 contract if we decided not to go for it. Assuming this is right then perhaps the "trade deal" to buy F16 in favor of allowing us to get SU35 didnt go thru. His active trips to Europe most likely trying to find better solution for TNI AU other than F16. Our counter offer to get F35 instead of F16 seems to be responded rather cold by US. Looking at Pak Prabowo character that F16 purchase can be seen as a "lost" on his part, and loosing is not an option in Kopassus dictionary. So this is going to be interesting show afterall.

For me the 48 Rafale plan he mentioned was intended to be one solution fits all kinda thing. By doing this F16 plan will be out (32 Fghters) and the SU35 cancelation (11 fighter with future plan to have total of 16) would be somehow justify. The downside is the fighter cost/armaments cost/logistic cost. US knows this and they can see the local reaction on the plan to get pre-loved Typhoon as well. So far US diplomacy is still on the strong side and has great leverage to push in, thus making the options Prabowo seek is more limited then it looks.

It just my speculation. Tho I think the ball is in the US side now, the move they made might decide the outcome. Looking at Pak Prabowo character they need to be careful on what they said/do. He has rather high temper and dont react well to threat. As for me I personaly dont like Typhoon if we plan to have it ONLY as stop gap. We bought used F16 as stop gap and now typhoon? Geezzz if we going to reshuffle the deck might as well go with 48 Rafale and get it over with. Beside I kinda like the SPECTRA in Rafale, I think todays combat fighter is come down to EW capability.

If US want to get us buy their fighters, they have to offer us something better than f16 in the mix.
"Alright, we buy 2 squadron of Falcon, but you have to offer us something better for F5 replacement, something like F35 or F15."
"If not, then European gonna take everything."

And I think it's working. Someone here said they offer advance F15 now if I remember correctly.

 

[Chestnut]

If US want to get us buy their fighters, they have to offer us something better than f16 in the mix.
"Alright, we buy 2 squadron of Falcon, but you have to offer us something better for F5 replacement, something like F35 or F15."
"If not, then European gonna take everything."

And I think it's working. Someone here said they offer advance F15 now if I remember correctly.

There's background chatter about the F-15, and honestly we should take it. It will streamline our operational budget.

As much as I like the F-35, the TNI AU is simply not ready to operate something of that magnitude. We don't have AWACS aircraft, we only have 1 tanker, our GCI radar network aren't fully built up and integrated yet, and our GBAD network isn't integrated altogether. What makes them think we can use a plane that is literally designed to be networked into a pre-existing network infrastructure?

And if the people at the house don't want the US getting all the cake, then fine; give the Tanker, AWACS, and MPA contracts to Airbus. Pretty sure they would be happy to supply us with planes valued at roughly +$3.5bil. Lockheed and Boeing shouldn't complain, they get to sell the F-16V and the F-15 to us respectively, along with the MV-22.

All of this without having to set up a very costly infrastructure implementation program that you would get with the Eurofighter or the Rafale, considering GMF already maintains the nation-wide fleet of A330s/320neos.

 

[Gundala]

And I think it's working. Someone here said they offer advance F15 now if I remember correctly

Oh I love F15EX. Comparing the possibility of F15 vs F35 is kinda interesting. F15 might be seen as "direct threat" to local "east" faction as the role is very similar. So they might go all out to reject this deal and make this deal bring political nightmare domestically to our already fragile political structure (hence the SU35 Saga digantung hampir 2 thn).

F35 bring more to US dilemma as our relation with them might not warrant this sophisticated product to be handed to us. Not to mention disrupting balance of power in the region specially to their closest ally in the region. But it may make more sense as the region it self face the same challange from the North. Looking from domestic stand point F35 wont challange current Sukhoi fleet as it serves different role. In short the problem is more external then internal.

The way I see it, US moves to us has been somehow too strong here. CAATSA threat has been expanded to one country into INDIVIDUAL who ever signed/involved in the Russia project. This create fear and anger at the same time thus feeding the "east" faction more support.

Either way I hope for the best, as the platform involved in this saga story (F15-F35-F16V-SU35-EF200-Rafale) is all a good platform. Its a matter of the aftermath/follow up plan once decision has been made because it might disrupt TNI AU long term plan as a whole.

 

[Chestnut]

Actually, I think the "diversification" faction has pretty much settled on the fact that the Su-35 is done. If anything I am willing to bet that they moved on towards the Rafale, since the French aren't exactly clean about their antics here.

 

[Gen3115]

+ France being the only other country that can provide actual diversification

 

[Whizzack]

Going back to what Dr. Conie Bakrie said in that interview, I think she was par for the course on this one.

Prabowo is letting his own bias and personal politics get in the way of end user interests. Not because he is getting bribed, but rather out of his own spite. That's just very unprofessional in my book.

Well perhaps if the US would invite him for an official visit and receive him with all the pomps and ceremonies befitting his title as the Minister of Defense, then probably Prabowo would be more easily swayed..

I mean if he's going to spend Billions of $$ for various defense equipment contracts, the producing countries should at the very least be corteous enough to invite him for an official visit... The fact that Prabowo has been flying practically everywhere, but the US, in search of alutsista is rather telling that something is still not quite right.. yet..

So yeah, it's quite possible that he would just bag the 48 Rafales, simply because the French is showing him more "respect". "Face" is still a very important aspect in our culture afterall, especially in Javanese culture..

 

[Nike]

Well perhaps if the US would invite him for an official visit and receive him with all the pomps and ceremonies befitting his title as the Minister of Defense, then probably Prabowo would be more easily swayed..

I mean if he's going to spend Billions of $$ for various defense equipment contracts, the producing countries should at the very least be corteous enough to invite him for an official visit... The fact that Prabowo has been flying practically everywhere, but the US, in search of alutsista is rather telling that something is still not quite right.. yet..

So yeah, it's quite possible that he would just bag the 48 Rafales, simply because the French is showing him more "respect". "Face" is still a very important aspect in our culture afterall, especially in Javanese culture..

Prabowo known for being a Francophile though

 

[Chestnut]

Well perhaps if the US would invite him for an official visit and receive him with all the pomps and ceremonies befitting his title as the Minister of Defense, then probably Prabowo would be more easily swayed..

I mean if he's going to spend Billions of $$ for various defense equipment contracts, the producing countries should at the very least be corteous enough to invite him for an official visit... The fact that Prabowo has been flying practically everywhere, but the US, in search of alutsista is rather telling that something is still not quite right.. yet..

So yeah, it's quite possible that he would just bag the 48 Rafales, simply because the French is showing him more "respect". "Face" is still a very important aspect in our culture afterall, especially in Javanese culture..

So you're saying that Prabowo should only spend OUR tax money on the basis of whether or not these countries cater to his ego, and not because he has an OBLIGATION to effectively manage the development of our armed forces on the basis of cost, commonality, networked infrastructure, and relevance to the current threats?

That's a pretty low bar you're giving him.

 

[Whizzack]

So you're saying that Prabowo should only spend OUR tax money on the basis of whether or not these countries cater to his ego, and not because he has an OBLIGATION to effectively manage the development of our armed forces on the basis of cost, commonality, networked infrastructure, and relevance to the current threats?

That's a pretty low bar you're giving him.

Not at all... actually I'm just suggesting that the US invite him for a visit... it simply seems to be one of the most obvious way to help fast track things for all concerned... Just wondering why it hasn't been done so...

As for "effectively manage the development of our armed forces on the basis of cost, commonality, networked infrastructure, and relevance to the current threats?" You do realize that it is also achievable using France/EU hardware right...? Considering that plenty of our existing and planned alutsista for AD, AL and even AU is already of France/EU origin too... Who knows, perhaps it might even be easier to network them all together.. Nothing wrong really for Prabowo to select Rafale or Typhoon.. it's not like those are low quality, inferior products.. though I'm not so keen on used T1 Typhoons myself...

 

[¿Por qué?]

Going back to what Dr. Conie Bakrie said in that interview, I think she was par for the course on this one.

Prabowo is letting his own bias and personal politics get in the way of end user interests. Not because he is getting bribed, but rather out of his own spite. That's just very unprofessional in my book.

So you're suggesting it was not Prabowo who sent the LOR for MV-22?

 

[¿Por qué?]

There's background chatter about the F-15, and honestly we should take it. It will streamline our operational budget.

How strong is this background chatter about F-15EX?