The way I see it until Indonesia has reached a level of economic stability that are not concentrated on Java, secessionist movements would continue to form. They can be formed out of natural resentment at the central government or state-sponsored from abroad.
I agree, but again I don't see the situation would only be contained to Papua. Keep in mind that certain people aren't happy that the economic development of the country is contained within the bigger islands. What's there to stop a state actor from profiting from the resentment by financing or arming these groups? We already saw a bunch of Type 56's and Type 81's in the hands of the OPM, it would naive to think that this wouldn't happen anywhere else in the Republic. I agree we need more UAV's and helicopters, but we shouldn't discount having COIN planes when our country is very susceptible to Balkanization given the right amount of support.
Indeed, I second
@Chestnut on this. One of the reasons Indonesia has managed to stay together is, ironically, due to the acute awareness our past and current leaders have of its fragility. Furthermore, one of the reasons why there have been relatively few state & non-state actors who would even think of financing anti-Indonesian secessionists is due to the American-centric global order.
If we ever get into a situation where the world becomes multi-polar, the appeal of financing rebels to destabilize Indonesia would increase for multiple parties.
And lets face it:
1) That American World Order is falling apart, both from domestic polarization, external challengers, and internal disagreements with traditional allies, namely europe.
2) Java-cenric is here to stay. The current gov might alleviate it somewhat, but economy inertia is a b**ch
One other point of instability we need to be aware of is Timor Leste, they get 85% of state revenue from oil proceeds, and overall 48% of their economy is directly dependent on the petroleum sector. They were already having political instability before this, the gov and their parliament being unable to agree on the 2020 budget.
Right now, they are in deep, deep trouble.
Unlike Indonesia, who has been given a 60 Billion USD Repurchase Agreement Facility for all the US Treasury Bills we hold (Thanks for the info
@Indos ), Timor Leste's emergency lifeline is dependent on Australia and AID Programs adminsitered by the EU, UNDP, and UNICEF, among others.
Needless to say, with current conditions, there has been slashing of AID budgets everywhere. 2020 is going to be a very hard year for Timor Leste, and 2021 will be too, if current oil price slump lasts until then. We should be cautious.
