India, Russia opt for velvet divorce
The
statement by the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov on Wednesday acknowledging that
Moscow and Islamabad are engaged in negotiations for the supply of the latest Russian version of Su-35 fighter jet to its “closest partner” Pakistan doesn’t comes as a surprise. This has been the stuff of kite flying by the Russian media in the recent months. Nonetheless, when it is formally acknowledged by a top diplomat, the impact is no less stunning.
First, its military significance. Make no mistake, Su-35S, the latest version, a
4++ generation fighter is a formidable beast with a
payload up to 8 tons and a wide array of air-to-air and air-to-ground weaponry. It has high maneuverability, advanced avionics and electronic systems, speed of mach 2.25 and a range of 3600 kilometers.
The multi-role Su35 S uses fifth generation technologies and would outclass Rafale that India proposes to buy from France or even America’s F35. Watch its
fantastic fight performance, here, at the recent MAKS 2015 Air Show in Russia. Without doubt, if the sale goes through,
Su 35 S will be a ‘force multiplier’ for the Pakistan Air Force.
Interestingly,
China will be the first country to receive the Su 35 S fighter. Russia first offered to India the option to buy the Su 35 S and when it showed disinterest, turned to the Chinese customer. Russia increasingly looks at arms exports as a source of income in these hard times with low oil prices and the western sanctions affecting the economy, which is in recession.
Having said that,
the willingness to sell such a cutting-edge weapon system to Pakistan, India’s archrival, is indeed hugely symbolic in its import for the quality of Russia-Indian relations today. To be sure, if the sale goes through, India-Russia relations can never be the same again. The romance of the Indo-Soviet friendship began dissipating in the early nineties but a special bonding laced with realism promptly replaced it, but now that seems to be inexorably unraveling. The good thing is that the parting of ways may not be in acrimony or with heartache.
Both India and Russia are moving on strategic trajectories that do not happen to be similar. They are far from running into each other – not yet, at least – but would have, simply put, different priorities today. Both are BRICS member countries but doubt arises often what makes India to be one when its foreign policies have drained of any high principles or ideology and are practically motivated by self-interest. Whereas Russian foreign policies are imbued with a long term vision regarding the world order and are focused on the working of an international system based on international law, India has preferred to remain a lotus eater.
For Russia, the tense relationship with the US is increasingly turning into an adversarial mode, while India under the present government, obsessed with the rise of China, is edging closer than ever to the US’ rebalance strategy in Asia. If reports are to be believed, US and India even co-sponsored the project to bring about a regime change in Sri Lanka by ousting President Mahinda Rajapaksa, whom they viewed as ‘pro-China’.
At a time when India cozies up to any country that would have a problem with China, the relationship between Russia and China are at their best ever historically.
At any rate, it was New Delhi that began introducing ‘market forces’ into its arms procurement policies, cherry-picking from Russia only if it suited India’s interests and assiduously searching for alternate sources of supply from abroad. Lately, the United States has also been replacing Russia, inevitably, as India’s preferred source of military hardware. Russia holds no veto power over New Delhi’s decisions to incrementally cut down its share of the Indian market.
The decision to offer Su 35 S to Pakistan underscores that Russia has reconciled with the India’s policies and will now go its own way to secure its self-interests. Clearly, New Delhi also cannot hope to veto the Russia-Pakistan arms dealings. This ought to make the parting of ways cordial.
Secondly, Russia may view China – or Pakistan, Indonesia or Egypt, which have been mentioned as potential customers for the Su 35 fighter – as commercial customers but then, the political considerations underlying weapons sales are always there. What could be the considerations behind a potential Su 35 S deal with Pakistan?
To be sure, the rapidly growing military ties between Moscow and Islamabad testify to the strategic importance that Russia attaches to Pakistan in the geopolitics of the region and Moscow’s overall regional strategies. For one thing, as a key player in the Afghan endgame that impacts on Russia and Central Asia’s vital interests, Pakistan assumes importance in Russia’s security calculus.
More important, perhaps, weaning Pakistan away from the American orbit is a strategic necessity for Russia and the military cooperation creates leverage both to influence Pakistani policies as well as to provide space for Pakistan to maneuver its way out of Uncle Sam’s decades-old embrace. Russia would estimate that given Pakistan’s enviable geographical location, the US’s regional strategies can never be effective without Pakistan playing its traditional cold-war era role as junior partner.
Conceivably, Russian policies toward Pakistan are moving in the direction of its efforts to counter the American intentions to establish military bases in Afghanistan on a long-term basis. (Amongst the regional players, India must be the only country that may welcome a long term American military presence in Afghanistan.)
Equally, it needs to be factored in that Russia and China coordinate their regional policies and the two big powers could be moving in tandem to strengthen Pakistan’s ‘strategic autonomy’ – China with its offer of massive investments within the ambit of the Silk Road projects and Russia stepping in to roll back Pakistan’s dependence on the US for meeting its defence needs. Interestingly, an agreement to lease 2300 acres of land in the vicinity of Gwadar Port in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province to China for a 43-year period was reportedly signed this week. (
People’s Daily)
Indeed, Russia and China can do a great deal in tandem to ensure that the US influence over Pakistan gets vastly diminished. Actually, compared to the situation even 5 or 6 ago, Washington would already be sensing the need to negotiate hard with Pakistan rather than simply dictate terms as it used to do. Gone are the days when an incumbent Pakistani prime minister desperately sought a White House invitation to consolidate his political standing in the domestic power structure. The special bonding between the Pentagon and the CIA with their Pakistani counterparts is also becoming a relic of history.
Against this backdrop, Russia sees a ‘level playing field’ becoming available in Islamabad and Rawalpindi in a way that would have been unthinkable during the cold war era.
For sure, Russia’s gravitation toward Pakistan shifts the tectonic plates in regional politics. The arms deals with Pakistan will proclaim to the entire region and internationally that the alignment in the power dynamic is changing.
Whether the realignment in the power dynamic of the region works to India’s advantage or not remains to be seen. The hard reality is that despite all the hype about the US-Indian ‘defining partnership of the 21st century’, India hasn’t gained anything much out of it so far. It is high time ‘Friend Barack’ who is left with only 16 more months in office does something tangible for India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The point is, Pakistan will always try to balance its ties with the US with its developing relations with Russia. It is adept at managing the balancing act with great finesse – showing, for example, remarkable dexterity in balancing the ‘all-weather friendship’ with China and its partnership with the US as its key ‘non-NATO ally’ all through the past decade of the Afghan war since 2001.
From the US point of view, too, Pakistan will remain a key regional partner bordering West and Central Asia. Besides, any containment strategy toward China, Russia and Iran can only be pursued if Pakistan is willing to play along or at least maintain a ‘positive neutrality’. Over and above, it is crucial for the US to remain engaged with Pakistan so long as the problem of international terrorism remains a concern for the western world.
Of course, India can never be a substitute for the role that Pakistan is expected to play. Most certainly, in order to neutralize India’s regional profile, Pakistan will continue to strive to maintain a strategic partnership with the US based on shared concerns and common interests (while strengthening its ‘strategic autonomy’).
Suffice it to say,
if the Su 35 S ever appears over the Pakistani skies, it will be a stark reminder that the Modi government’s foreign polices have ended in a cul de sac. After all, it is no mean achievement for the Modi government to have chilled the ties with China, ratcheted up tensions with Pakistan to a near-flashpoint and to atrophy India’s time-tested relationship with Russia to this low point — and, all that to have been achieved in a matter of just 15 months in power.
Posted in
Military,
Politics.
Tagged with
BRICS,
China's Silk Road strategy,
Gwadar,
Russia-Pakistan,
US bases in Afghanistan.
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By
M K Bhadrakumar – September 11, 2015
