India-Pakistan war games, and Cold Start

[nakodo]

Well my perception was or at least from what I read, is that Pakistan will use its nukes if its integrity is threatened.....

they said everything is fair in love and war. Pakistan has the bomb and missiles, so why will she wait for some breaking point (pun unintended) to be reached, and not take pre-emptive action as quickly in the war as possible?

However the nature of any Indo-Pak battle will not be to capture Islamabad, but to create an environment where the Kashmir issue can be settled once and for all (In the process target Kashmir militancy)....

I will somewhat agree with that. Kashmir is more or less settled. Any solution acceptable to both sides will be around LoC as border. If Pakistanis go back to the Shimla declaration, this is what was said, besides the fact that all Indo Pak problems to be sorted out bilaterally. Then you can throw in niceties like porous borders/combined institutions etc. etc. None can occupy more without risking too much, neither can any renege on what they already have. It is a stalemate.

In the scenario you have mentioned, if it comes down to the PAF being negated, then I expect P-O-K to be the only land that India would want to keep within its boundaries in exchange for captured Pakistani areas......

No sir, I beg to differ. I dont think they will want the trouble of occupying land where population is hostile for too long. Bargaining chips for some strategic favours is a different matter, but holding a population and assuming responsibility for their development is very different. India has by and large never occupied any people that did not want to be willingly included. Otherwise India Pakistan would have turned out like China Taiwan, India would not have given back whatever land they occupied from 71 in west Pakistan, and Bangladesh would have been assimilated into India.

However moving as far as Islamabad or ideas of "occupying" Pakistan is a nightmare scenario for India....aka Pandora's box.....we will be inviting a heap of trouble not just nuclear......China, USA, OIC will not allow this!!

that is going too far, unless a very very favorable situation arises for India.

 

[Peshwa]

you always lik going over the limits. isnt it? pakistan giving ***?

haha....I see what you mean....

But frankly you presented the hypothetical scenario.....I should be allowed to throw a few conditions in there....LOL!

No but seriously...Do you really believe that the capture of "***" by Indian forces would lead to a nuclear exchange in return for isolation from the world and most probably a counter strike?

I have my doubts.....
Frankly I feel Indians or Pakistanis lack the political will to undertake a move the magnitude of nuking another country...

 

[HariSeldon]

I don't know why u are not getting my simple point??

I know for Cold Start we don't need these toys but my point is that we should not take risk. Because our Cold start can turn into full scale long war instead of limited war

First get ourselves prepared for full fledged war with cutting edge most modern stuff and familiarize with them.

Then strike at a lightning speed and carry out the plan "Cold Start".

If it get limited war as we want then its good or if it gets into a large scale war then we would have prepared for it also.

As first time in our history we will be attacking a nation in response to proxy war, so we have the element of surprise and gains of first mover.

Correct me If I am wrong. CS is given by IA and IAF and IN has yet to bought this. Till then, it look just paper talk.

And if all three serivces are in sync, I see very limited role for IA in CS. Do you know how many ppl are on leave in IA given any point of time? Don't you need to recall them before you start anything? How can you keep such massive excercise hidden? Even they don't recall, do you think that all the war m/c is oiled and loaded to start rolling?
Before you give marching orders, you need to do preprations. Brief the relevant commanders, take care of ammo and logistics? Will this go unnoticed? Even if this happens as soon as the columns of tanks will start rolling out whole war m/c across the borders will be buzzing and getting ready to meet us. No matter how secret is movement, everybody who wished to be known, will have more than couple of hrs headstart bfr IA can cross the IB. Thats more than enough for them to stop us just few KM inside there terroritory.
Moreover for CS perspective can you define IBG? What assets are at there disposal? Where are there logistics depot? Where are those columns of tanks? How mobile are these IBG's? I don't see IA CS-enabled in next 5 years min, given that they start prepration today and also do this at war-footing.
And finally what can CS achieve when we have to return the land after seize-fire? Again correct me if I am wrong, Indian aim in future war will be to destroy the war m/c of enemy. What can IA do to destroy the war m/c?
What make more sense is IN and IAF take the initiative. IA lure PA few KM inside Indian border in Rajasthan and keep them tied down there. This will not create the sense of annhilation to enemy even if IAF and IN cause extensive damage to there war m/c and keep the nuclear option in check.

 

[nakodo]

no. im saying all ur formations within pak territory might be 'eliminated'

How will you achieve that? Lets say hypothetically India captures Lahore. Can you nuke Lahore? What about the collateral damage? Will Pakistan be able to nuke her own people to stop India in her tracks? What if the blitzkreig revolves around moving from one population center to another (with IBG elements leapfrogging over each other, so that when they are in transit they do so in small convoys so as not to present a lollypop to a tactical nuclear weapon)? How will Pakistan handle that situation?

If all of PA is busy fortifying cites like they did in E Pakistan in 1971, then how will they fight a war with such a defensive mindset?

If by some quirk you do end up nuking Lahore, then there will be retaliation in kind from India, plus your own people will turn against you. How can you fight a war without public support? They are after all the ones that supply the soldiers , officers, airmen and sailors?

 

[Peshwa]

they said everything is fair in love and war. Pakistan has the bomb and missiles, so why will she wait for some breaking point (pun unintended) to be reached, and not take pre-emptive action as quickly in the war as possible?

Because I believe Indians and Pakistanis lack the Cajones to launch nukes.....
It take political will, the ability to withstand isolation from the world, sustain economically after and the ability of absorb MAD for your own people....Its not easy to barter your own people to the gallows for a political cause

More or less....Its a game of poker...whoever can read the bluff wins....

I will somewhat agree with that. Kashmir is more or less settled. Any solution acceptable to both sides will be around LoC as border. If Pakistanis go back to the Shimla declaration, this is what was said, besides the fact that all Indo Pak problems to be sorted out bilaterally. Then you can throw in niceties like porous borders/combined institutions etc. etc. None can occupy more without risking too much, neither can any renege on what they already have. It is a stalemate.

Probably....

No sir, I beg to differ. I dont think they will want the trouble of occupying land where population is hostile for too long. Bargaining chips for some strategic favours is a different matter, but holding a population and assuming responsibility for their development is very different. India has by and large never occupied any people that did not want to be willingly included. Otherwise India Pakistan would have turned out like China Taiwan, India would not have given back whatever land they occupied from 71 in west Pakistan, and Bangladesh would have been assimilated into India

.

I agree....I would not condone India occupying any lands....but if we are idiots, we will want to unite Kashmir.....which will be like driving the nail into our coffin....

PS: I wouldnt be surprised if in a scenario (if at all possible) that India will retain some Kashmiri lands that border Afghanistan to gain access to the CAR....

 

[Justin Joseph]

well not if indian formation is also destroyed with a use of tactical weapons.

1. Pak can't use nuke on Jammu & Kashmir as the card of so called Muslim brotherhood will be lost and in eye of Muslim countries pak will be seen as one who have committed massacre of Muslims.

2. At Punjab we have tunnels and other arrangements where we can easily take on a nuke attack, also there is no benefit of damaging fields. Must also remember that a attack on our Punjab will we the invitation of retaliation on your Punjab will be wipe out.

3. Only place remain where a nuke war is possible is Rajastan, here we don't have high value assets or high density areas. Only the two armies will feel the brunt.

Yeah, Pakistan will threat to target Delhi and Mumbai in retaliation it can be wipe out. Must, remember the international pressures.

When Us will sure that pakistan is going to start a nuke war. US will take over pakistan with India. As no one can afford a nuke war.

There will be no benefit of using nuke against the forces as they will not disappear, here I'm talking about both the forces. Both will survive nuke attack. Also, without a threat of attack on civilian, strategic and high value target the nuke threat will fade its sheen.

Hence, nuke threat is a threat only until some jehadi type element takes over. Conventional war is the only possibility.

 

[nakodo]

Because I believe Indians and Pakistanis lack the Cajones to launch nukes.....
It take political will, the ability to withstand isolation from the world, sustain economically after and the ability of absorb MAD for your own people....Its not easy to barter your own people to the gallows for a political

Yes, but they are both nations too full of pride, reasons are historical. Just like N/S Korea. When nationalist fervour is whipped up it can reach a deafening decibel.

I agree....I would not condone India occupying any lands....but if we are idiots, we will want to unite Kashmir.....which will be like driving the nail into our coffin....

IMHO that is a forgotten agenda, and no one really cares including perhaps even IA. They hardly raised the hackles in Pakistan when they passed a resolution demanding P.o.K from Pakistan in the Parliament under Vajpayee I think.

PS: I wouldnt be surprised if in a scenario (if at all possible) that India will retain some Kashmiri lands that bother Afghanistan to gain access to the CAR....

Then they would have done that in 47. Nehru just wanted the Srinagar Valley, if you read a bit of the history, what was Gilgit Baltistan had already (voluntarily because of fear of Hindus) revolted against the Dogra king. Since they sort of already did their self determination I think Nehru just let them be and no future Indian Govt will want to upset that.

 

[TaimiKhan]

Indians are talking as if their Army is gonna run over Pakistan from Siachen to Rann of Kutch. As if they are gonna roll over the whole 2000+KM boundary, wow what an imagination.

Can't stop laughing after reading the above childish comments.

Do remember, you guys couldn't do such thing in past, nor will do in future, so now leave the saathwaan asman and zameen per ajaoo.

 

[desiman]

Indians are talking as if their Army is gonna run over Pakistan from Siachen to Rann of Kutch. As if they are gonna roll over the whole 2000+KM boundary, wow what an imagination.

Can't stop laughing after reading the above childish comments.

Do remember, you guys couldn't do such thing in past, nor will do in future, so now leave the saathwaan asman and zameen per ajaoo.

Nobody is running over anyone, if a war does happen, its going to be a very bloody and long one but in the end India's stronger economic structure and larger military would give it the edge. If it will be a victory, no one cant say but its easy to say a war will not be worth it.

 

[Peshwa]

Indians are talking as if their Army is gonna run over Pakistan from Siachen to Rann of Kutch. As if they are gonna roll over the whole 2000+KM boundary, wow what an imagination.

Can't stop laughing after reading the above childish comments.

Do remember, you guys couldn't do such thing in past, nor will do in future, so now leave the saathwaan asman and zameen per ajaoo.

Why do you always overreact?

If you havent been reading, we are discussing hypothetical situations presented by a senior moderator who first brought up a scenario of the PAF and PA being decimated....(at least I am...cant speak for the rest....But since you used the term "Indians"....you include me)

Please direct your comments to specific posters, but in this case you are generalizing....


This is what AJPirzada wrote....

assume if PAF gets destroyed and our armoury vanishes in thin air. why will pakistan not use tactical nuclear weapons on battlefield to get rid of the indian formation?

Secondly, my responses have been in relation to what a political goal to an Indo-Pak war will be in light of the situation presented by AJPirzada NOT what we will or will not do.....and where the nuclear threshold lies....

 

[TaimiKhan]

Nobody is running over anyone, if a war does happen, its going to be a very bloody and long one but in the end India's stronger economic structure and larger military would give it the edge. If it will be a victory, no one cant say but its easy to say a war will not be worth it.

Well, your countrymen are implying as if they are gonna over run Pakistan, as they are bringing in Kashmir, Lahore etc etc

65 war and 71 war on western fronts both were inconclusive, no one had a clear edge even though India was superior in numbers and economy.

And India is getting upgraded, no doubt, but so is Pakistan to keeping itself on the upgrade path, yeah we may not match Indian superiority, but we will make sure that India doesn't uses its superiority to its advantage.

 

[desiman]

Well, your countrymen are implying as if they are gonna over run Pakistan, as they are bringing in Kashmir, Lahore etc etc

65 war and 71 war on western fronts both were inconclusive, no one had a clear edge even though India was superior in numbers and economy.

And India is getting upgraded, no doubt, but so is Pakistan to keeping itself on the upgrade path, yeah we may not match Indian superiority, but we will make sure that India doesn't uses its superiority to its advantage.

no country can run over each other in today's age, not even the US. I dont want to comment on the 65 and 71 wars as that will change the topic but in the current scenario its wiser for both country to maintain a credible deterrence so that war is negated. Its better if we both focus on our economies and helping out the no so lucky citizens of both our countries.

 

[TaimiKhan]

Why do you always overreact?

If you havent been reading, we are discussing hypothetical situations presented by a senior moderator who first brought up a scenario of the PAF and PA being decimated....(at least I am...cant speak for the rest....But since you used the term "Indians"....you include me)

Please direct your comments to specific posters, but in this case you are generalizing....


This is what AJPirzada wrote....


Secondly, my responses have been in relation to what a political goal to an Indo-Pak war will be in light of the situation presented by AJPirzada NOT what we will or will not do.....and where the nuclear threshold lies....

When BS posts get posted, natural overreaction takes place.

If out of 100, 3 don't have such views, then generalization does helps as 97% have the views which you don't. Many may not speak up, but in their heads there are these thoughts.

Plus, i was not talking about you. As i cleared in my posts about those who were bringing in nukes being used in Kashmir or in Lahore.

Hope it clarifies.

 

[nakodo]

no country can run over each other in today's age, not even the US

how would you see US vs Iraq, US vs AfPak?

 

[Old School]

According to the title of this thread , this all about military strategy and doctrine which is a very complex subject even for some of our seasoned military leadership. Why we are seeing political rhetoric here ? Military planning is a science just like any other field of science. Just because one can use words like 'attack' , 'defend' etc , it does not give someone the qualification to discuss about military doctrine. We spend decades at the war college to understand the art and science of the military planing and it is very sad to see how the posters are posting here. I do not see myself going to an IT or medicine forum to talk non-sense as i do not have understanding of those subjects.