In Naval War With China, India Would Be No Pushover

[ChennaiDude]

Hey apu if you weren't too busy looking for cows to bugger, that bike is a gamma x made in china vs a Chevy aver made in Korea.
Btw made in china crushed assembled in India in tank biathlon today

Thanks for the great knowledgeable comment..Chinki Yellowchinaman!...The bumper is made in China.(crumbles just like your fake *** products).and the cycle tire is made in Vietnam...so go and try harder again.No one cares about what you got to say, especially if you have a screen name like JUNK J20..lol.

 

[Arsalan 345]

china has the upper hand.their subs are modern design.i am sick of this western technology mentality.look at china,they are using new techniques to make their subs more quiet.china already present in indian ocean and in this doklam standoff, at least 2 chinese subs might be closer to indian cities.china will never send it's fleet during war.it will send it's fleet before any conflict.i think it already started.india just need to detect chinese subs.i am sure they are in indian ocean.gwadar and karachi have massive importance for china.they can dock their subs on our ports and docking at gwadar would put chinese subs probably out of indian missile range.

 

[salimpheku]

it should be a concern for you guys to maintain a stronghold in indian ocean than trying to take the fight to them..... those days are long gone.....

We are not stupid to even remotely entertain the thought we can take the fight to China. We have no thought of taking the fight to it and won't do it.

Similarly, all the cheer-leaders who think they will have a free for all roaming around in Indian Ocean by China need a reality check.
The only feasible way is Malacca straits and they are treacherous for our enemies. It's not a boast of our capabilities but the geographical god-send we have. Call it luck or anything else, if Andaman & Nicobar was not over looking Malacca straits, the story would have been very very different.

You understand if your strategy is based on a very specific location then you are in fact telling everyone exactly where your assets will be.

However, our Djibouti base can accommodate 10,000 men. Pakistani ports is also in the process of being upgraded. That is only the beginning, there will one day be a fleet based just in IO.

Do I think geography will play a part? Certainly, but more so that Indian ocean is next to India and hence you can bring more non naval assets to the mix. China is not so strong and neither is India that weak that this can be discounted.

Though that is quickly changing. It is likely China will have at least a prototype fifth gen carrier fighter, before India has a fifth gen fighter at all. Now obviously i can't see the future, so we will see. Though at this point I wouldn't bet against China, as every estimation i made turned out to be too conservative.

A balanced post & I agree with you.
Do remember though. China is adding hardware & so is India. Theatre is always changing but what does not change is the strategic importance of locations.

The biggest problem of any attack is the logistics - Who ever manages logistics better, they win the war.

Logistics is the single reason why USA acceded to Pakistan demands. Pakistan helps USA logistics into Afghanistan and US gives them a lot of value in return.

Once we agree to the fact that logistics are the single most aspect of any attack warfare, then we can move on to discussion of what China needs to do to get it's logistics in order to wage a war against India.
I would love to know your opinions of how China would have handle the logistics across Himalayas or Indian Ocean.

 

[wiseone2]

who said it;s surface fleet they'll be sending....

submarines are not too useful when it is being hunted down

You understand if your strategy is based on a very specific location then you are in fact telling everyone exactly where your assets will be.

However, our Djibouti base can accommodate 10,000 men. Pakistani ports is also in the process of being upgraded. That is only the beginning, there will one day be a fleet based just in IO.

Do I think geography will play a part? Certainly, but more so that Indian ocean is next to India and hence you can bring more non naval assets to the mix. China is not so strong and neither is India that weak that this can be discounted.

Though that is quickly changing. It is likely China will have at least a prototype fifth gen carrier fighter, before India has a fifth gen fighter at all. Now obviously i can't see the future, so we will see. Though at this point I wouldn't bet against China, as every estimation i made turned out to be too conservative.

Djibouti is too far. They will not get involved in any India-China war. All it takes is a single missile strike to change their minds

Pakistan is a different story

 

[Genesis]

A balanced post & I agree with you.
Do remember though. China is adding hardware & so is India.

I don't discount the fact India is adding more hardware, but India is adding them at a pace not really at par with China. Now if China is slightly faster, then that isn't a concern, but that is not what's happening here.

Here are the destroyer race, the frigate, submarine and corvette race is frankly even more loopsided.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visakhapatnam-class_destroyer
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_052D_destroyer

By the time the first Visakhapatnam class is commissioned, at least 10, most likely 11 will be commissioned. This is if it is commissioned in time, which I doubt because if it isn't in sea trial now it is too late for next year, this is true for all nations' first of its class.

Also keep in mind, China has one 055 launched, another close, and two more in the early stages of construction. These are all visually confirmed. Now the 5th and 6th one I am not sure, so I won't included them here.

Though the likelyhood again is at least one 055 will be in service when Visakhaptnam class goes live.

Theatre is always changing but what does not change is the strategic importance of locations.

Location is important, I don't discount it, but brute force can change that. What can change it more is location itself. China's Djibouti base means ships would need to travel less distance and would come from at least two directions to face any threat. This is something that cannot be discounted.

The US is far, but as it stands just its troops in Korea and Japan can most likely win a quick and sharp war with China. China is far from IO, but PLAN may not be. Since we are both nuclear powers, it is important to note that nothing would get too out of hand in case of emergency.

Though what is even more realistic is the simple fact China has these assets operating in the IO region in a continuous bases, would swing perception to China's favor and thus allow China to have an even greater say in the region. Think America, it had not needed its military in the Pacific region since WW2, yet it's presence makes sure its voice is heard and its actions followed.

The biggest problem of any attack is the logistics - Who ever manages logistics better, they win the war.

Logistics is a factor, a huge factor and China is working on it. Remember the missing plane? People laughed at China's logistics, but no one has followed up on China's improvements.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Indian_Navy_ships#Replenishment_ships
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_..._Self-Defense_Force_ships#Replenishment_ships
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_People's_Liberation_Army_Navy_ships#Fleet_replenishment

Chinese replenishment ships almost double India and Japan put together, and then the difference would increase. There are currently no plans for India nor Japan to acquire more in at least the near future.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_People's_Liberation_Army_Navy_ships#Amphibious_warfare_ships
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_...fense_Force_ships#Helicopter_destroyers_-_DDH
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Indian_Navy_ships#Amphibious_warfare_ships

With China, a 6th 071 has been seen laid, and the 5th one will join the fleet shortly. I will admit Japan does a lot better here, I would include future Chinese plans, but I have no concrete proof and Japan already has all of them in service. I included them as I didn't want to show them as an incompetent force, but they have nothing to do with this discussion.

Now India has pretty much nothing here. I have heard tenders, but these things take better part of a decade in the best of circumstances after a deal had been finalized, so in the near future at least India has no real assault capability.

Now another thing that is overlooked is the combined number of 056 and 054 are 60+, this means China has more than enough ships to deal with most neighbors put together, minus Japan and Korea. So PLAN presence in East and South China sea will not diminish no matter how many capital ships are moved outside the region.

These are all facts on Chinese logistics.

Logistics is the single reason why USA acceded to Pakistan demands. Pakistan helps USA logistics into Afghanistan and US gives them a lot of value in return.

Don't get me wrong, I love Pakistan and would see it as an attractive destination for investment, but the overwhelming number of dollars involved really says it all about Pakistan's place in Chinese eyes.

Once we agree to the fact that logistics are the single most aspect of any attack warfare, then we can move on to discussion of what China needs to do to get it's logistics in order to wage a war against India.

Now I just outlined my thoughts on Indian ocean logistics, but the key missing component is the stationing of anti sub and ELEN aircrafts, as well as China's lack of effective carrier force. Though China is working on both.

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/plaaf-planaf-special-mission-aircraft-y-8gx-family.465649/page-2

There is a lot of good information on Chinese developments in this area in this thread, check it out. As to carriers, I don't need to tell you how that's going. It's good, but not great. Though at this point in time good places China comfortably in second place. Though well behind first.

I would love to know your opinions of how China would have handle the logistics across Himalayas or Indian Ocean.

Himalayas is a different beast. This is naval thread so I'll hold off. Now if you want we could discuss. It revolves around indigenous engines (yes it will be great, one day.), Y-20, Y-9, Z-8, Z-20. A side note, it has been officially confirmed the first (known) Chinese combat aviation brigade has been formed. One of the only non Western + Russian + Japanese( maybe Korean) formed. (please someone dispute this, I have no concrete information on this, but fail to see who else would have so many helicopters to field such a force.)

 

[Adam WANG SHANGHAI MEGA]

When we are ready,we will beat shit out of india!!!You better fire as quick as possible that is your only chance!!!!!

 

[salimpheku]

I don't discount the fact India is adding more hardware, but India is adding them at a pace not really at par with China. Now if China is slightly faster, then that isn't a concern, but that is not what's happening here.

Here are the destroyer race, the frigate, submarine and corvette race is frankly even more loopsided.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visakhapatnam-class_destroyer
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_052D_destroyer

By the time the first Visakhapatnam class is commissioned, at least 10, most likely 11 will be commissioned. This is if it is commissioned in time, which I doubt because if it isn't in sea trial now it is too late for next year, this is true for all nations' first of its class.

Also keep in mind, China has one 055 launched, another close, and two more in the early stages of construction. These are all visually confirmed. Now the 5th and 6th one I am not sure, so I won't included them here.

Though the likelyhood again is at least one 055 will be in service when Visakhaptnam class goes live.



Location is important, I don't discount it, but brute force can change that. What can change it more is location itself. China's Djibouti base means ships would need to travel less distance and would come from at least two directions to face any threat. This is something that cannot be discounted.

The US is far, but as it stands just its troops in Korea and Japan can most likely win a quick and sharp war with China. China is far from IO, but PLAN may not be. Since we are both nuclear powers, it is important to note that nothing would get too out of hand in case of emergency.

Though what is even more realistic is the simple fact China has these assets operating in the IO region in a continuous bases, would swing perception to China's favor and thus allow China to have an even greater say in the region. Think America, it had not needed its military in the Pacific region since WW2, yet it's presence makes sure its voice is heard and its actions followed.



Logistics is a factor, a huge factor and China is working on it. Remember the missing plane? People laughed at China's logistics, but no one has followed up on China's improvements.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Indian_Navy_ships#Replenishment_ships
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_..._Self-Defense_Force_ships#Replenishment_ships
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_People's_Liberation_Army_Navy_ships#Fleet_replenishment

Chinese replenishment ships almost double India and Japan put together, and then the difference would increase. There are currently no plans for India nor Japan to acquire more in at least the near future.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_People's_Liberation_Army_Navy_ships#Amphibious_warfare_ships
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_...fense_Force_ships#Helicopter_destroyers_-_DDH
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Indian_Navy_ships#Amphibious_warfare_ships

With China, a 6th 071 has been seen laid, and the 5th one will join the fleet shortly. I will admit Japan does a lot better here, I would include future Chinese plans, but I have no concrete proof and Japan already has all of them in service. I included them as I didn't want to show them as an incompetent force, but they have nothing to do with this discussion.

Now India has pretty much nothing here. I have heard tenders, but these things take better part of a decade in the best of circumstances after a deal had been finalized, so in the near future at least India has no real assault capability.

Now another thing that is overlooked is the combined number of 056 and 054 are 60+, this means China has more than enough ships to deal with most neighbors put together, minus Japan and Korea. So PLAN presence in East and South China sea will not diminish no matter how many capital ships are moved outside the region.

These are all facts on Chinese logistics.



Don't get me wrong, I love Pakistan and would see it as an attractive destination for investment, but the overwhelming number of dollars involved really says it all about Pakistan's place in Chinese eyes.



Now I just outlined my thoughts on Indian ocean logistics, but the key missing component is the stationing of anti sub and ELEN aircrafts, as well as China's lack of effective carrier force. Though China is working on both.

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/plaaf-planaf-special-mission-aircraft-y-8gx-family.465649/page-2

There is a lot of good information on Chinese developments in this area in this thread, check it out. As to carriers, I don't need to tell you how that's going. It's good, but not great. Though at this point in time good places China comfortably in second place. Though well behind first.



Himalayas is a different beast. This is naval thread so I'll hold off. Now if you want we could discuss. It revolves around indigenous engines (yes it will be great, one day.), Y-20, Y-9, Z-8, Z-20. A side note, it has been officially confirmed the first (known) Chinese combat aviation brigade has been formed. One of the only non Western + Russian + Japanese( maybe Korean) formed. (please someone dispute this, I have no concrete information on this, but fail to see who else would have so many helicopters to field such a force.)

I don't discount or disagree with most of what you stated, except the brute force analysis.
Yes, it would work if you have overwhelming numbers and strategic advantage.

For example: There is a huge difference between China attacking Vietnam & India with the same hardware. To Vietnam your access is easier, hence with the same hardware(no of ships, men, ammunition, etc) you would get a much different result.
For any naval attack on India, Malacca straits become a choke point for China. Your whole strategy needs to revolve around nullifying that, simply because there is no going around it.
And Andaman & Nicobar Islands offer India a strategic advantage for defensive posturing that no amount of ships can provide. Hypothetically India can place & has placed lot of varieties of missiles to make any attack costly for China.

I understand China has numerical advantage and will probably have a bigger advantage going ahead. Still, I am not convinced China can solve the Malacca Conundrum in the short or medium term.

The worse for China is that any opening in the Northern border by it on India could result in India tightening the passage at Malacca straits.

 

[karl wang]

Weird, India don't understand it is not a peer of China.

 

[salimpheku]

Weird, India don't understand it is not a peer of China.

Weird that you don't understand the difference between Defensive vs Attacking warfare!

 

[Genesis]

I don't discount or disagree with most of what you stated, except the brute force analysis.
Yes, it would work if you have overwhelming numbers and strategic advantage.

For example: There is a huge difference between China attacking Vietnam & India with the same hardware. To Vietnam your access is easier, hence with the same hardware(no of ships, men, ammunition, etc) you would get a much different result.
For any naval attack on India, Malacca straits become a choke point for China. Your whole strategy needs to revolve around nullifying that, simply because there is no going around it.
And Andaman & Nicobar Islands offer India a strategic advantage for defensive posturing that no amount of ships can provide. Hypothetically India can place & has placed lot of varieties of missiles to make any attack costly for China.

I understand China has numerical advantage and will probably have a bigger advantage going ahead. Still, I am not convinced China can solve the Malacca Conundrum in the short or medium term.

The worse for China is that any opening in the Northern border by it on India could result in India tightening the passage at Malacca straits.

How can India tighten passage? I don't understand this point, in peace time, this strait largely doesn't matter. In war time, attack on passenger ships has twice doomed Germany.

In terms of navy, you should read on Japanese modernization during Meiji. Japan decided it was better to decide where the battle is than to let the battle come to you. Turns out, you can't be more right.

The same applies here. It's not that India can't find Chinese navy, but China doesn't have to find Indian Islands. Islands have the distinction of not being able to move.

Now in terms of missiles, that is why I still doubt Chinese effectiveness (real effectiveness) in the IO. What I will say is China has one of the best anti air systems and certainly has one of the largest variety of them. China would know what its up against. Based on annual Chinese exercises, these anti air are not as effective as one might think.

Stealth Fighter, when realized would play a large role in this, and I believe who ever achieves effectiveness here first would have the initiative.

I say carrier is both useless for China right now, and the one thing China cannot live without if it wants to project power.

Now what if we look further? What if our navies are not used against each other, but like the cold war, against third parties far from shore.

In that sense, China have the definitive advantage and this is what I believe to be the most likely use of our respective forces. So pretty much what the dollars are genuinely going to used for. I mean no navy has gone up against a peer or near peer competitor since WW2.

 

[salimpheku]

How can India tighten passage? I don't understand this point, in peace time, this strait largely doesn't matter. In war time, attack on passenger ships has twice doomed Germany.

In terms of navy, you should read on Japanese modernization during Meiji. Japan decided it was better to decide where the battle is than to let the battle come to you. Turns out, you can't be more right.

The same applies here. It's not that India can't find Chinese navy, but China doesn't have to find Indian Islands. Islands have the distinction of not being able to move.

Now in terms of missiles, that is why I still doubt Chinese effectiveness (real effectiveness) in the IO. What I will say is China has one of the best anti air systems and certainly has one of the largest variety of them. China would know what its up against. Based on annual Chinese exercises, these anti air are not as effective as one might think.

Stealth Fighter, when realized would play a large role in this, and I believe who ever achieves effectiveness here first would have the initiative.

I say carrier is both useless for China right now, and the one thing China cannot live without if it wants to project power.

Now what if we look further? What if our navies are not used against each other, but like the cold war, against third parties far from shore.

In that sense, China have the definitive advantage and this is what I believe to be the most likely use of our respective forces. So pretty much what the dollars are genuinely going to used for. I mean no navy has gone up against a peer or near peer competitor since WW2.

Your analysis on Japanese modernization is spot on but I doubt it's applicable here simply because China is not in a position to choose where it can fight.

Most of Chinese commercial & strategic ships pass through these straits. With the way Andaman & Nicobar are placed, there is no escaping scrutiny of any ships in case India 'decides' a blockade. Then China has a Hobson's choice.
China may not decide Malacca as the theatre but once it opens a front somewhere else, India can decide it's better to fight at Malacca than where China has opened the front.

I am using your logic. Why would India decide to engage China where it wants, especially if it's China firing the first shot?

If it was any other place on the planet, China could ignore but with so much volume of it's strategic assets passing through Malacca, it can't be ignored.
I can assure you that any front opened by China in the north will be met with a swift response at Malacca. It will be a defensive posture but the message would be clear.

 

[j20611]

Thanks for the great knowledgeable comment..Chinki Yellowchinaman!...The bumper is made in China.(crumbles just like your fake *** products).and the cycle tire is made in Vietnam...so go and try harder again.No one cares about what you got to say, especially if you have a screen name like JUNK J20..lol.

Apparently you lose the ability to comprehend facts when you stop eaten ng beef and start humping it.

http://www.gammaxbicycle.com/
The bumper was probably made by retarded company called TATA
Going back to topic real junks are the two Indian navy ships that were capsized and exploded without even leaving port!
Thank you come again!

 

[Pyr0test]

Thanks for the great knowledgeable comment..Chinki Yellowchinaman!...The bumper is made in China.(crumbles just like your fake *** products).and the cycle tire is made in Vietnam...so go and try harder again.No one cares about what you got to say, especially if you have a screen name like JUNK J20..lol.

its called a bumper cover you dipshit, and if you actually know anything about cars you would know the actual metal bumper doesn't extend all the way to the side of the car. What do you think when a tensioned bike wheel hits a plastic bumper cover, use your pea brain to work it out. Also what does a car have anything to do with naval power anyways

 

[Genesis]

Your analysis on Japanese modernization is spot on but I doubt it's applicable here simply because China is not in a position to choose where it can fight.

Most of Chinese commercial & strategic ships pass through these straits. With the way Andaman & Nicobar are placed, there is no escaping scrutiny of any ships in case India 'decides' a blockade. Then China has a Hobson's choice.
China may not decide Malacca as the theatre but once it opens a front somewhere else, India can decide it's better to fight at Malacca than where China has opened the front.

I am using your logic. Why would India decide to engage China where it wants, especially if it's China firing the first shot?

If it was any other place on the planet, China could ignore but with so much volume of it's strategic assets passing through Malacca, it can't be ignored.
I can assure you that any front opened by China in the north will be met with a swift response at Malacca. It will be a defensive posture but the message would be clear.

See that is where we differ. India, or any nation, cannot possibly justify firing on or capturing a civilian ship. So this point is moot.

Another point to consider, why has India not armed it the same way it arms other strategic locations? The Pakistani border for example. Why does China not place anything other than token offensive weapons and surveillance planes on our islands? I believe everyone understands its usefulness, but also its restrictions.

Now I also don't think Indian strategist's thinking is go at China's pace. However, it's an island. Where are you moving it to? Moving too far and the islands will not play a role. Then it is back to navy vs navy.

Also, I am a big believer, especially now with Djibouti, China intends to place ships in the IO permanently so as to not be required to move them there in time of need. China needing to send troops from China, may be an outdated thinking.

These islands suffers the same problem as China's islands in SCS, they are islands. Good for basing troops, that's it. If you ever need them to do anything, that's probably a bad idea.

 

[Jlaw]

Apparently you lose the ability to comprehend facts when you stop eaten ng beef and start humping it.

http://www.gammaxbicycle.com/
The bumper was probably made by retarded company called TATA
Going back to topic real junks are the two Indian navy ships that were capsized and exploded without even leaving port!
Thank you come again!

Indians have gone full retard. Many here want to die ASAP as they want China to expedite troop movement for war .
Their wish will be granted but they can live a bit longer