How would a war on Iran start off?

[SALMAN F]

No one can dare to attack Iran

 

[Falcon29]

No one can dare to attack Iran

Why so?

 

[rmi5]

if Iran stops sponsoring terrorists inside Azerbaijan the relations would improve

Azerbaijan can defend itself in a war
Azerbaijan air defence network is the most advanced in the region
tank fleet is also more advanced along with artillery

I think there would be no war, and mullahs would not change their behavior as well. Actually, they want to send a message to Baku which is not to cross some red lines including getting close with South Azerbaijanis. They can send much more terrorists or stop sending them, but they won't.
Anyway, in the case of any imaginary war, Armenia and Russia would side with mullahs, and Turkey would side with Azerbaijan, but none of these 3 countries would do anything serious, except for Armenia. Turkmenistan has very good relations with mullahs, and they will remain neutral as well. So, in the ground, it would be Azerbaijan vs mullahs, and Armenia. In this case, mullahs would have the edge in numbers, and they would have the upper hand in total. But, if Azerbaijanis inside Iran, decide to side with Northern Azerbaijan, the situation would be different. But, it needs much more efforts from North than what Northern government is currently doing. So, it really depends on what Northern Azerbaijan government is doing and their policies regarding Southern Azerbaijanis.

 

[atatwolf]

I think there would be no war, and mullahs would not change their behavior as well. Actually, they want to send a message to Baku which is not to cross some red lines including getting close with South Azerbaijanis. They can send much more terrorists or stop sending them, but they won't.
Anyway, in the case of any imaginary war, Armenia and Russia would side with mullahs, and Turkey would side with Azerbaijan, but none of these 3 countries would do anything serious, except for Armenia. Turkmenistan has very good relations with mullahs, and they will remain neutral as well. So, in the ground, it would be Azerbaijan vs mullahs, and Armenia. In this case, mullahs would have the edge in numbers, and they would have the upper hand in total. But, if Azerbaijanis inside Iran, decide to side with Northern Azerbaijan, the situation would be different. But, it needs much more efforts from North than what Northern government is currently doing. So, it really depends on what Northern Azerbaijan government is doing and their policies regarding Southern Azerbaijanis.

I doubt south Azerbaijanis will fight Azerbaijan. I can see revolt of Turkmen in Iran too. But to come back to you saying Turkey doesn't care about Turkic matters. When Erdogan won elections which country he immediately visited?; yes you guesed right. Azerbaijan. Both countries agreed they are closest ally, who is closer to Turkey than Azerbaijan? Plus if you say Turkey cares more about Sunni. Majority of Turkic world is Sunni.

 

[Viper0011.]

I was always wondering, lets just apply this scenario and ignore the realities on the ground. If eventually a decision was made to attack Iran by Israel, how would it play out?

-Israel would launch an air attack presumably with Western intelligence help and active military support
-What will they strike? Civilian infrastructure? And how long would the strikes be?
-No ground invasion would occur for self explanatory reasons
-The US would be blamed by the Muslim world for sanctioning another Israeli attack against their people and the American people would face a reprisal due to our foreign policy of supporting Israeli wars.
-Where would Israel strike from?
-Would Iran mobilize and respond several hours later or will they calculate that the damage if insignificant is not worthy of a response and increase their nuclear activities?
I just can't fathom that Israel would go at it alone, they'd rather have other people pay the price for them. Israel even if capable is not prepared for the aftermath but more importantly doesn't know what to expect. They may take lead in initial strikes but afterwards they wish to place the issue on western shoulders. Israel also doesn't have the capabilities the U.S. has, they're depending on America to once again fight their wars. Does anyone believe that after the Obama administration the US would take a conservative turn and serve Israeli interests while making if plunge into more debt?

Very interesting and misleading post. Here's how it could play out in my opinion (Am I going to surprise you guys?):
- Israel ALREADY has or should have all the intelligence. They know where the air defense is, where the targets are and what to hit when and what to expect back. Without this, anyone thinking about a mission like this, is an idiot. But Israelis are not and I can assure you that. They have one of the best military planning after the US.
- This will be an insane air assault, whether done by the US or by Israel alone. No ground invasion as none of the two countries have issues with Iran or its rulers. The only issue is the nuclear capability that would be removed with force if not complied with. That's the reality.
- Israel can pretty much strike from ANY direction besides flying over Turkey.
- The Iranian air defense - Radar and SAM posts will be removed (the ones in the way). That could happen with a barrage of cruise missiles, etc shortly before the air assault begins. OR, the Israeli AF would take a chance and do this as a first wave. They have the capability to Jam Iranian electronics. They might also take out any air bases that may be in the way just to make it easier to have dominance over the flight path and least resistance. Remember, after the US, there are just a few countries that keep a large number of jets on short notice and Israel does it very well with over 300 top of the line jets including long rage assets and subs.
- The second wave would hit the nuclear installations and this may be a very precision strike mission. The goal isn't to destroy each brick. The goal is to damage their nuclear program enough that it goes back by 5-7 years. Then the dialogue will do its magic or more strikes will follow, probably, with the threat of involving the US in the future.
- Iran's response would be to use its Scud based Shahab missiles....but their locations aren't a secret so I could see the first wave taking out the AD, also taking out missile silos that may be able to hit Israel. But, hitting Israel with anything more than a couple of conventional missiles would then have its own cost too and will involve the US directly in the deal. I am sure there are smart people in the Iranian military. Who'd know that defense may be the best option as offense may cost too much that may leave them with crippled military for many years to come.
- Really, the Iranian government should consider the cost of getting into this situation and losing many billions worth of radars, military equipment, missiles and other expensive jets. Which will leave you MUCH weaker for the next decade militarily at the least. Is it worth trying to build nuclear weapons when so much is at stake? And not to mention the nukes you'd never be able to use anyways due to the the massive retaliation it would bring.
- The objectives of this air campaign will be achieved within the first few hours. A damaged reactor or power plant (if not entirely mechanically disabled), takes a couple of years or so to rebuild. With a crippled air defense and billions lost in other military hardware, keeping the pressure on the Iranian regime and further damaging high value targets at will, will become much easier in the future...

 

[Falcon29]

Very interesting and misleading post. Here's how it could play out in my opinion (Am I going to surprise you guys?):

Misleading? What?

- Israel ALREADY has or should have all the intelligence. They know where the air defense is, where the targets are and what to hit when and what to expect back. Without this, anyone thinking about a mission like this, is an idiot. But Israelis are not and I can assure you that. They have one of the best military planning after the US.

No one is disputing they have intelligence, but they don't have 'all' the intelligence, whatever you mean by that. Having intelligence doesn't always mean intelligence on weapon locations, it could just mean information on military programs or arsenals but knowing where they're located or what they're intended for.

- This will be an insane air assault, whether done by the US or by Israel alone. No ground invasion as none of the two countries have issues with Iran or its rulers. The only issue is the nuclear capability that would be removed with force if not complied with. That's the reality.

Don't bring the US into this, Israel could fight it's won war of aggression if it intends to, the world seems to want relations with Iran.

- Israel can pretty much strike from ANY direction besides flying over Turkey.

They can go through Saudi Arabia? @Yzd Khalifa

- The Iranian air defense - Radar and SAM posts will be removed (the ones in the way). That could happen with a barrage of cruise missiles, etc shortly before the air assault begins. OR, the Israeli AF would take a chance and do this as a first wave. They have the capability to Jam Iranian electronics. They might also take out any air bases that may be in the way just to make it easier to have dominance over the flight path and least resistance. Remember, after the US, there are just a few countries that keep a large number of jets on short notice and Israel does it very well with over 300 top of the line jets including long rage assets and subs.

I know they have missiles which could be used for this purpose, Iran has developed mobile means for air defenses since they're expecting this. Iran is not easily fooled, Hezbollah managed to fool Israeli intelligence in 2006 and develop counter measures. You think they're clueless people who have no intelligence of their own? We are well aware of Israel's Air Force thanks to the US, otherwise they're useless.

- The second wave would hit the nuclear installations and this may be a very precision strike mission. The goal isn't to destroy each brick. The goal is to damage their nuclear program enough that it goes back by 5-7 years. Then the dialogue will do its magic or more strikes will follow, probably, with the threat of involving the US in the future.

You realize how many thousands of kilometers they need to fly? And the most it could be delayed is a couple years as estimated by military experts. The US won't do whatever Israel wants, at least not the way I see the future.

- Iran's response would be to use its Scud based Shahab missiles....but their locations aren't a secret so I could see the first wave taking out the AD, also taking out missile silos that may be able to hit Israel. But, hitting Israel with anything more than a couple of conventional missiles would then have its own cost too and will involve the US directly in the deal. I am sure there are smart people in the Iranian military. Who'd know that defense may be the best option as offense may cost too much that may leave them with crippled military for many years to come.

How would you know they don't have secret locations? So when Israel couldn't find locations of Hamas missiles what did you think about that? Israel doesn't know everything. No, the US would not be involved directly because the Iranians defended their land and retaliated. Ballistic missiles are difficult to use since all the air defense around Israel which isn't Israeli. No one knows for sure though.

- Really, the Iranian government should consider the cost of getting into this situation and losing many billions worth of radars, military equipment, missiles and other expensive jets. Which will leave you MUCH weaker for the next decade militarily at the least. Is it worth trying to build nuclear weapons when so much is at stake? And not to mention the nukes you'd never be able to use anyways due to the the massive retaliation it would bring.

Nothing says they're building weapons, I'm just speaking of a hypothetical scenario. I think you underestimate them, Israel can't take Hezbollah and Hamas without repercussions, Iran can manage to respond and is well aware of Israeli methods to strike.

- The objectives of this air campaign will be achieved within the first few hours. A damaged reactor or power plant (if not entirely mechanically disabled), takes a couple of years or so to rebuild. With a crippled air defense and billions lost in other military hardware, keeping the pressure on the Iranian regime and further damaging high value targets at will, will become much easier in the future...

This is true about what it would mean.

 

[Yzd Khalifa]

They can go through Saudi Arabia? @Yzd Khalifa

I don't think so. The Gov't is divided but they most likely won't pursue this option.

Israel may violate Iraq's air space though.

I'm a %100 against taken a military action against Iran's nuclear program. Although the Mullahs appear to be a bit dicy but they still rational. My opposition to the strike and the war by far is due ethical perspective.

And Iran's nuclear program is good for KSA.

Misleading? What?



No one is disputing they have intelligence, but they don't have 'all' the intelligence, whatever you mean by that. Having intelligence doesn't always mean intelligence on weapon locations, it could just mean information on military programs or arsenals but knowing where they're located or what they're intended for.



Don't bring the US into this, Israel could fight it's won war of aggression if it intends to, the world seems to want relations with Iran.



They can go through Saudi Arabia? @Yzd Khalifa


I know they have missiles which could be used for this purpose, Iran has developed mobile means for air defenses since they're expecting this. Iran is not easily fooled, Hezbollah managed to fool Israeli intelligence in 2006 and develop counter measures. You think they're clueless people who have no intelligence of their own? We are well aware of Israel's Air Force thanks to the US, otherwise they're useless.



You realize how many thousands of kilometers they need to fly? And the most it could be delayed is a couple years as estimated by military experts. The US won't do whatever Israel wants, at least not the way I see the future.



How would you know they don't have secret locations? So when Israel couldn't find locations of Hamas missiles what did you think about that? Israel doesn't know everything. No, the US would not be involved directly because the Iranians defended their land and retaliated. Ballistic missiles are difficult to use since all the air defense around Israel which isn't Israeli. No one knows for sure though.



Nothing says they're building weapons, I'm just speaking of a hypothetical scenario. I think you underestimate them, Israel can't take Hezbollah and Hamas without repercussions, Iran can manage to respond and is well aware of Israeli methods to strike.



This is true about what it would mean.

 

[Falcon29]

@orangzaib

You keep saying Israeli this and that, we all know the vast majority of intelligence is collected by the US which gives it to Israel, Israel is no superpower. The US does all the work, they give them intelligence, they deploy defense missiles for you, they provide you the bombs and fuel tankers....without the US Israel would learn to start to behave instead of behaving like a bunch of psychotic animals. The US has said if Iran responds they would be involved directly. Of course the Israeli cowards have little to do with any operations in the Middle East. They know they'd get their asses handed to them if it wasn't the world superpower doing all their work and sending their own children to die for Israeli imperialist interests. So if this is what the Jewish want, then it's time to change the rules of the game.

For every American solider that dies for Israel, a 100 US Jews would be executed at gunpoint at the public square. This is how it should be, our children dying for a criminal nation means they must pay a price as well if this is what they want.

I don't think so. The Gov't is divided but they most likely won't pursue this option.

Israel may violate Iraq's air space though.

I'm a %100 against taken a military action against Iran's nuclear program. Although the Mullahs appear to be a bit dicy but they still rational. My opposition to the strike and the war by far is due ethical perspective.

And Iran's nuclear program is good for KSA.

Well even though I'm against the Saudi regime I'm not naive to believe their military capabilities won't detect such a thing. Of course this will probably lecture us and tell us the all powerful Israelis can get through Saudi airspace without the Saudis even noticing.

They're that powerful bro, what don't you understand?

 

[Viper0011.]

@orangzaib
You keep saying Israeli this and that, we all know the vast majority of intelligence is collected by the US which gives it to Israel, Israel is no superpower. The US does all the work, they give them intelligence, they deploy defense missiles for you, they provide you the bombs and fuel tankers....without the US Israel would learn to start to behave instead of behaving like a bunch of psychotic animals.

Well, I would tell you this much, the Israelis don't follow instructions from the US. They are a nation of their own. They are US's allies and the most strategic ones. I don't think you can comprehend common sense. You are grossly underestimating Israel's military and its technological capability. Look around you, didn't they install a computer virus not too long ago in your facilities systems and pushed you guys way back with the progress?
If you review the technological landscape today, Israel pretty much has the same power in my opinion as compared to NSA. In fact, all anti-virus and other extremely critical computer software come from Israel or per R&D done in Israel. These components make up the internet, the computer software, etc, etc and the list goes on.
Similarly, if a country's that advanced with technology, it doesn't need the US for everything. Trust me, they are more than just capable of taking Iran's locations out on their own. The US has the relationship to stop them verbally but if shi*t hits the fan, I think I am almost 99% sure that they'll act without caring about the US as they are the ones in this region and they'll see their national security above all.
Everyone in this world has their strategic objectives and national security in mind. A lot of times, allies work together. Sometimes, they don't care about the collaboration so much. Iran seems to be that case, if the Israelis think whatever red line they have is about to get crossed, they will jump the gun!

 

[Falcon29]

Well, I would tell you this much, the Israelis don't follow instructions from the US. They are a nation of their own. They are US's allies and the most strategic ones. I don't think you can comprehend common sense. You are grossly underestimating Israel's military and its technological capability. Look around you, didn't they install a computer virus not too long ago in your facilities systems and pushed you guys way back with the progress?
If you review the technological landscape today, Israel pretty much has the same power in my opinion as compared to NSA. In fact, all anti-virus and other extremely critical computer software come from Israel or per R&D done in Israel. These components make up the internet, the computer software, etc, etc and the list goes on.
Similarly, if a country's that advanced with technology, it doesn't need the US for everything. Trust me, they are more than just capable of taking Iran's locations out on their own. The US has the relationship to stop them verbally but if shi*t hits the fan, I think I am almost 99% sure that they'll act without caring about the US as they are the ones in this region and they'll see their national security above all.
Everyone in this world has their strategic objectives and national security in mind. A lot of times, allies work together. Sometimes, they don't care about the collaboration so much. Iran seems to be that case, if the Israelis think whatever red line they have is about to get crossed, they will jump the gun!

The majority of what you're speaking of is US work and effort. Everybody knows this, all Israeli military capabilities are American. Their missile defense systems are US projects which are also funded by the US. We all know Israel has little to do with their military development. Take the US out of the equation in all aspects and show me what Israel is after that.

 

[New]

I was always wondering, lets just apply this scenario and ignore the realities on the ground. If eventually a decision was made to attack Iran by Israel, how would it play out?

-Israel would launch an air attack presumably with Western intelligence help and active military support
-What will they strike? Civilian infrastructure? And how long would the strikes be?
-No ground invasion would occur for self explanatory reasons
-The US would be blamed by the Muslim world for sanctioning another Israeli attack against their people and the American people would face a reprisal due to our foreign policy of supporting Israeli wars.
-Where would Israel strike from?
-Would Iran mobilize and respond several hours later or will they calculate that the damage if insignificant is not worthy of a response and increase their nuclear activities?

...........

I just can't fathom that Israel would go at it alone, they'd rather have other people pay the price for them. Israel even if capable is not prepared for the aftermath but more importantly doesn't know what to expect. They may take lead in initial strikes but afterwards they wish to place the issue on western shoulders. Israel also doesn't have the capabilities the U.S. has, they're depending on America to once again fight their wars. Does anyone believe that after the Obama administration the US would take a conservative turn and serve Israeli interests while making if plunge into more debt?

So to me I really see this far ahead still, if it even happens. For Iran's response, I really don't know how they would respond, they don't have hundreds of thousands of ballistic missiles that could reach Israel, some say they only have hundreds and even if they fire some I don't think they could prevent an Israeli attack. I believe Iran has to focus on American/Israeli interests in the region, if they can harm their interests to bring the war to an end that way then they'll succeed at getting the American people to resent fighting a war for Israel. Israel however will probably be protected unless Hezbollah takes action, this time Israel really needs to be taught a lesson to prevent future aggression. Is Iran really capable of delivering a blow?

The problem arises when the Western world is willing to do favors for Israel, so Israel knows it can get away with declaring war since the Western world will pay the price and not Israel. This policy of the West encourages Israel to feel its immune to law and can be very flexible in areas not even superpowers can be.

It really depends on how the Western world handles this situation, if it becomes a thing where they will fight another war for Israel against the middle eastern people then it's time for a drastic change in the region, all out war against western interests.

@Islam shall be the winner @rmi5 @Serpentine @haman10 @ResurgentIran @SinaG @JEskandari @DATIS

@mohsen

@Hazzy997 ,
To consider or investigate such bold actions, one should first sort a complete list of costs and benefits. First of all, no one has the access to all sort of information needed in order to analyze the players moves here on PDF, so lets not waste time on nonsense.
But for those whom are really interested on the subject, lets solve the problem from end to the beginning.
Now we are in 2014,
Do we have all the sort of information needed to analyze the situation? NO
Does Israel have the motivations to attack Iran? We don't know.
Does US interests lies beneath helping Israel attacking Iran? We don't know.
....
....
There are many things we don't know so we can't predict even the near future. But we do have some kinda even top secret information today, and what is that?
That is;
Although we didn't have the answer to above mentioned questions in 2013, 2012, 2011, ..... 1979, but we have the result and that result is:
Performing a Cost- Benefit analyze on the subject has resulted to NOT INVADING Iran.
So for the time being as far as we know there has been no change in the basic elements so the ultimate result should stay the same unless there is some emerging new factors and elements that we don't know nothing about that are changing the environments.
So all in all for us to stay quiet, remains the most wise option.

 

[Falcon29]

@Islam shall be the winner

Best answer so far.

 

[Viper0011.]

The majority of what you're speaking of is US work and effort. Everybody knows this, all Israeli military capabilities are American. Their missile defense systems are US projects which are also funded by the US. We all know Israel has little to do with their military development. Take the US out of the equation in all aspects and show me what Israel is after that.

Let's put this in context. Whether its the US provided capability or not......does that make them less of a capable force? The topic is how they'll do it, etc. Not who gave them the capability. We are now getting into a silly discussion. The bottom line is, can the Israelis do it and at will, the answer is yes they can.

 

[Falcon29]

Let's put this in context. Whether its the US provided capability or not......does that make them less of a capable force? The topic is how they'll do it, etc. Not who gave them the capability. We are now getting into a silly discussion. The bottom line is, can the Israelis do it and at will, the answer is yes they can.

I understand what you're saying but when you refer to logistics, intelligence, bombs, preparations, it's largely if not all the work of the US.

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

I don't think so. The Gov't is divided but they most likely won't pursue this option.

Israel may violate Iraq's air space though.

I'm a %100 against taken a military action against Iran's nuclear program. Although the Mullahs appear to be a bit dicy but they still rational. My opposition to the strike and the war by far is due ethical perspective.

And Iran's nuclear program is good for KSA.

Nuclear weapons + Iranian regime = Can you imagine how dangerous it it looks like.