How many years will it take for China to add another India's nominal GDP? 3, 4 or 5?

[Nilgiri]

India is nowhere to be seen.
I guess, too d**** and f****?
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Somewhere in PDF they bragged their no.1 FDI and greenfield investment....
China is now in an advanced stage of development, of course the growth rate is slowing.
But this thread is talking about How many years will it take for China to add another India's nominal GDP?

The funny thing is China's western part grows faster than India with 8-9%, both at 2-trillion U.S. dollar.
Don't even mention our top3 provinces, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, each is a one-trillion economy with growth rate at 7.7-8.5% in H1 2015.

How convenient of you to not post the table :

China tourism arrivals have already started to decrease back then?

BTW, 8-9 millions tourists visiting India in 2015 roughly. And it is epxected to double to 16 million+ by 2025 and keep increasing at a fast pace as the sector gathers momentum. So it wont be long till India is in top 10 table for Asia tourist arrivals.

Indian tourism trajectory is quite good but still a long way to go....just like other sectors of its economy (still in take off phase).

http://www.wttc.org/-/media/files/reports/economic impact research/countries 2015/india2015.pdf

Also we should look at tourism receipts as well:

International tourism, receipts (current US$) | Data | Table

Already India is in the top 10 in Asia for that (Almost double Indonesia Receipts)

For 2013 some examples:

China - 56 billion USD

India - 19 billion USD

Japan - 17 billion USD

Indonesia - 10 billion USD

 

[Beidou2020]

Chinese Tourist Spending Hit Record Last Year Amid Income Gains - Bloomberg Business

Chinese tourists spent a record $164.8 billion overseas last year -- a 28 percent increase over 2013 -- as disposable income rose and more people ventured abroad.

Travelers from China spent $113.6 billion more overseas than foreign tourists spent while visiting the country, according to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. That so-called tourism deficit was almost 50 percent larger than the previous year’s figure.

The latest numbers reflect how rising wealth in China has flowed overseas in the years since 2002, when China eased many restrictions on foreign travel. Disposable income rose a nominal 10.1 percent last year, outpacing the economy’s nominal 8.2 percent expansion.


“More and more ordinary Chinese are putting tourism expenses on their list of priorities,” Ge Lei, a marketing manager in China CYTS Tours Holding Co., said before the data was released.

The number of Chinese traveling abroad reached 109 million, topping 100 million for the first time, while inbound tourism trips fell almost 1 percent to 128 million, the China National Tourism Administration said.

Ctrip.com International Ltd., the country’s largest online travel agency, forecasts 15 percent to 20 percent growth of outbound tourism this year.

 

[CAPRICORN-88]

Chinese Tourist Spending Hit Record Last Year Amid Income Gains - Bloomberg Business

Chinese tourists spent a record $164.8 billion overseas last year -- a 28 percent increase over 2013 -- as disposable income rose and more people ventured abroad.

Travelers from China spent $113.6 billion more overseas than foreign tourists spent while visiting the country, according to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. That so-called tourism deficit was almost 50 percent larger than the previous year’s figure.

The latest numbers reflect how rising wealth in China has flowed overseas in the years since 2002, when China eased many restrictions on foreign travel. Disposable income rose a nominal 10.1 percent last year, outpacing the economy’s nominal 8.2 percent expansion.


“More and more ordinary Chinese are putting tourism expenses on their list of priorities,” Ge Lei, a marketing manager in China CYTS Tours Holding Co., said before the data was released.

The number of Chinese traveling abroad reached 109 million, topping 100 million for the first time, while inbound tourism trips fell almost 1 percent to 128 million, the China National Tourism Administration said.

Ctrip.com International Ltd., the country’s largest online travel agency, forecasts 15 percent to 20 percent growth of outbound tourism this year.

I am glad Singapore is one of their top destination.

 

[Beidou2020]

World Tourism rankings - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

National wealth - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

List of countries by motor vehicle production - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Manufacturing - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Dungeness]

I remember in the early 90s our industrial output was at roughly the level of Sweden.

We have come a long way and there remains a long way to go.

Chinese trolls for some reason seem to think we are dispirited by what they post....not knowing that we know it was much worse before and things are looking much more positive now.



Such a racist you are. Remember to brush your teeth after you eat stinky tofu fried with garlic dog meat. Mainland Chinese have some very bad oral hygiene....and they're always spitting when they're talking.....and have very bad manners in general. Just look at the jokes people make worldwide about Chinatown....the traditional armpits of cities in the US.

Chinese people in general do not believe India can achieve what China has accomplished in foreseeable future . The reasons are as following:

1. India dose not have the concept of "born to be equal" in its culture as in the most modern western societies;
2. India has never gone through the "brutal" revolution that eliminates the social ills and backward traditions like China did;
3. India's politicians and elites' tendency to talk big and deliver little;
4. India's failure in practice of "separation church and state", which is the norm of a successful democratic country;
5. Indian elites' lack of compassion for the poorest segment of the society;

List goes on. We wish India the best, but it is up to Indian people to find their destiny.

 

[bolo]

Then the sad thing would be, the Chinese Government are encouraging it. I wonder why?

Next why are rich Indians refusing to return to India. If you want to be a "Gordon Chang" alike, at least make it coherent and logical.

The migration of rich folks is both interesting and interesting and should not be viewed with negativeness or politically unless these folks applied for political asylum. e.g. why did Jim Rogers moved his family from his cozy home in New York to Singapore?

Most unfortunately most of China asylum seekers have NO MONEY.

Jim Rogers cashed out of India for good. Follow the smart money not Indian hype.

Jim Rogers exits India, says one can’t invest just on hope - Livemint

 

[Tridibans]

Jim Rogers cashed out of India for good. Follow the smart money not Indian hype.

Jim Rogers exits India, says one can’t invest just on hope - Livemint

And after he exited, BSE SENSEX rebounded and moved up 15 % and INR appreciated from a low of 67 rupees to 64.95 today

All the Chinese fanboys who are dancing up and down, please compare Indias' economy of 2015 and that of China's of 2000-01. We are at the same level..... We are just starting to accelerate and by 2025 , we would be at least a 5 trillion economy.

By all measures, India WILL be the 3rd largest economy in another 15 years. No matter how large China becomes, other than USA, only India would be able to have any standing in front of you. So no matter whatever you guys post, the fact still remains.

We have many issues. India is full of red tapes, corruption, bureaucracy, etc..

But still, from a 500 billion USD economy in 2000, we are now 2.3 trillion USD (more than 4 times growth).

PS: All Chinese members, @Beidou2020 @AndrewJin .... Name me one country other than USA who could challenge China after 15 years.... and I hope as an economics related professional myself, I can vouch that with the 3 most important things required for long term growth... 1) Human Capital 2) Resources and 3) Policies/ Government ..... India is the only country who would be anywhere near to USA/ China by 2030.

 

[Tridibans]

PS: With all the crap posted above that India can't do this.... can't do that...

well guess what WE ARE ACTUALLY DOING IT !!!!

1) 350 billion USD forex from a mere 100 billion in 2002-03
2) We reduced our poverty from 47 % in 1994-5 to 19% in 2014-15 (UNDP report).
3)Econmy grew from a mere 490 billion USD to 2.3 trillion
4) Per capita increased from 850 USD odd in 2004-5 to 1700 USD in 2015 (more than double).

If anything, India will be where China is today by 2029-30. (Even a mere 7% growth takes us to 9 trillion by 2029) So I don't know what this fuss is all about.

 

[Dungeness]

And after he exited, BSE SENSEX rebounded and moved up 15 % and INR appreciated from a low of 67 rupees to 64.95 today

All the Chinese fanboys who are dancing up and down, please compare Indias' economy of 2015 and that of China's of 2000-01. We are at the same level..... We are just starting to accelerate and by 2025 , we would be at least a 5 trillion economy.

By all measures, India WILL be the 3rd largest economy in another 15 years. No matter how large China becomes, other than USA, only India would be able to have any standing in front of you. So no matter whatever you guys post, the fact still remains.

We have many issues. India is full of red tapes, corruption, bureaucracy, etc..

But still, from a 500 billion USD economy in 2000, we are now 2.3 trillion USD (more than 4 times growth).

PS: All Chinese members, @Beidou2020 @AndrewJin .... Name me one country other than USA who could challenge China after 15 years.... and I hope as an economics related professional myself, I can vouch that with the 3 most important things required for long term growth... 1) Human Capital 2) Resources and 3) Policies/ Government ..... India is the only country who would be anywhere near to USA/ China by 2030.

NO Chinese people with sane mind would think China today's GDP is the same as USA in 2003, therefore China is at the same development level as USA in 2003.

 

[Tridibans]

India will surpass China and the US by 2030

by 2030

I remember having discussions with a few Chinese posters back in 2012 (I guess Chinese dragon and SinoChallenger) that India will collapse by 2014 due to inflation and INR would depreciate to 85 + against 1 USD....

Its 2015, and instead of being collapsing, WE ARE THE FASTEST GROWING MAJOR world economy. So much for India hatred

Regarding your video, what you expect from a local language move shot in 2008 to show about the future in 2030? An Afghanistan like picture ?

 

[Nilgiri]

Chinese people in general do not believe India can achieve what China has accomplished in foreseeable future . The reasons are as following:

1. India dose not have the concept of "born to be equal" in its culture as in the most modern western societies;
2. India has never gone through the "brutal" revolution that eliminates the social ills and backward traditions like China did;
3. India's politicians and elites' tendency to talk big and deliver little;
4. India's failure in practice of "separation church and state", which is the norm of a successful democratic country;
5. Indian elites' lack of compassion for the poorest segment of the society;

List goes on. We wish India the best, but it is up to Indian people to find their destiny.

We fundamentally don't care what Chinese people in general believe....because the vast majority are poorly educated and quite brainwashed....and also for some reason fervent copy cats of Western ideology like the import of Communism under Mao, his resulting destruction of indigenous Chinese culture to the extent that now its more of a casual hobby and passing reference within China for the most part.....Chinese have barely a living link with their original culture now for the most part. They have just replaced unfettered communism with unfettered capitalism with no local cultural sponge to create an indigenous Chinese-based system.

So like you said....I will say that Indian people in general do not believe China can ever achieve what India has accomplished in the forseeable future. Most think you are simply another standardized clone country of Western culture....and you dont even have the culture the West at least has preserved domestically. We prefer to learn the good things and adapt them to our local requirements rather than carbon copying en masse and crossing your fingers it will work in the long run.

1. India certainly has the concept of born equal right from its earliest culture. In practice it is always difficult to implement given the way society organises itself. The West has in built practices of this sort too, look at its Racism for example...like how Black people and other minorities are still discriminated against. It was much worse 50 years back....just like in India it was much worse 50 years back. All countries and societies have ideals....and they have realities. Saying the concept "does not exist" shows your lack of knowledge.

2. A brutal revolution is not required. If you want to justify the murder of millions of people in China by such revolutions as being worth it in the long run....that is your opinion. Indians for the most part frankly find that disgusting. Murder should be the last resort....State-sanctioned Mass murder even more so. Nazi Germany would have probably justified the Holocaust if they had won after all....just like the US justified the firebombing and atomic bombs on Japan. History is how you write it. Eradication of social ills and backward traditions comes from education. Thats why there is such a disparity between states in India....some are quite forward thinking and area already quite classless in principle....while others have a long way to go still. It is not like India is one large homogenous mix of relatively "backward" "uneducated" thinking.

3. True in the past, not so anymore. There is a fundamental revolution in the bureaucracy going on right now....and various States have gone through similar overhauls in bureaucratic management and implementation much earlier ( from the 80s onwards....some even before that in the 60s). Elite leadership can be good or bad....what matters is the bureaucracy performance. That is the major reason for the discrepancies between Indian states today.

4. See point 1. You are just repeating in a different guise.

5. And there is such a huge compassion from the elite worldwide towards the poorest members? I certainly don't see Chinese elite having any major compassion....after all look how long they have been holding the workers feet to the fire of maintaining industrial margins to ensure a high investment economy is maintained to ensure growth numbers are maintained at the cost of consumption. It is bordering on the line of ridiculousness now given the Size of China. There are large diabetic parts of the Chinese economy now because of it.... who's normalisation will have severe impacts if they are allowed to deflate to allow space for a more equitable structure. But then if you want to believe there is some "compassion" behind this from China's elite (who now more than ever cannot allow this system to change for fear of their own economic security and vested political control/stability)....then you are again free to believe that.

List goes on. We wish India the best, but it is up to Indian people to find their destiny.

Thanks, all said and done....we wish the same to China. I for one only want to engage with Chinese members here to learn from their opinions like you have illustrated here. Thats why I wish we do not have this trollfest so we can have a nice clean interesting conversation. But maybe its asking too much.

 

[Tridibans]

NO Chinese people with sane mind would think China today's GDP is the same as USA in 2003, therefore China is at the same development level as USA in 2003.

I NEVER said India is at the same level as China in terms of development. But we are surely catching up. There has to be a start somehwere, isn't it?

What was China in 1975-80? Were you guys like this developed back then? Why today?

Same is with India, albeit 15 years behind (as we opened up our economy in 1991 thanks to our shitty politicians).

 

[AndrewJin]

Jim Rogers cashed out of India for good. Follow the smart money not Indian hype.

Jim Rogers exits India, says one can’t invest just on hope - Livemint

Huge trade deficit, totally back up by hot money.
Who knows what will happen when Fed increases interest rates.
Next time, pls don't waste precious nominal dollars, print PPP-rupees.

 

[Dungeness]

I NEVER said India is at the same level as China in terms of development. But we are surely catching up. There has to be a start somehwere, isn't it?

What was China in 1975-80? Were you guys like this developed back then? Why today?

Same is with India, albeit 15 years behind (as we opened up our economy in 1991 thanks to our shitty politicians).

That is the most often used rhetoric by Indian members here to defend India's lag behind. It's funny that you have to defend a democratically elected government in such a manor. Where you guys have been before 1991?

If it is about GDP, maybe; if you are talking about the social equality, women's social status, education level, life expectancy, infrastructure, social mobility of poorest segment of society, HDI and all other social indicators, the answers is no. Take life expectancy as an example, India is in the same level as China in 1970's, let alone sports prowess, PASA test scores.

By the way, I do believe India has made a great progress in the last 20 some years, but how much the poorest segment of the society has been benefiting from the development is totally different question.

 

[Tridibans]

That is the most often used rhetoric by Indian members here to defend India's lag behind. It's funny that you have to defend a democratically elected government in such a manor. Where you guys have been before 1991?

If it is about GDP, maybe; if you are talking about the social equality, women's social status, education level, life expectancy, infrastructure, social mobility of poorest segment of society, HDI and all other social indicators, the answers is no. Take life expectancy as an example, India is in the same level as China in 1970's, let alone sports prowess, PASA test scores.

By the way, I do believe India has made a great progress in the last 20 some years, but how much the poorest segment of the society has been benefiting from the development is totally different question.

Why you Chines always post fake data and are liked by the fellow Chinese members?

Let me help you guys...

Life expectance of India is 68.3 (2015) and that of China is 75.2 (2015)

Geoba.se: Gazetteer - The World - Life Expectancy - Top 100+ By Country (2015)

In 1990, China's life expectancy was 68.6 and India's was 58.

Global Health Observatory Data Repository

So 1990 is 1970 for you?


regarding the social issues raised by you, pray tell me what are these?

1) Poverty reduced from 47% in 1990 to 19% in 2015
2) Literacy increased from 55% to 72%
3) Per capita GDP from 855 USD to 1750 USD in 2015.

Should I post UNHDP links too?