Decline of China: Identifying China's Successors

[walle]

Doner kebabs, although they are made by the local Lebanese.

 

[atatwolf]

This is the truth. Most of China still struggles to survive with couple of bucks per year. You might not like it, because I'm the messenger, but China's economic future dependens on foreign demand, and as you can read from the article, I doubt you read it since I see so many personal attacks, China's cheap labor market is being replaced by other countries. China's GDP is going to go lower of time to the point of no return.

 

[Wholegrain]

This is the truth. Most of China still struggles to survive with couple of bucks per year. You might not like it, because I'm the messenger, but China's economic future dependens on foreign demand, and as you can read from the article, I doubt you read it since I see so many personal attacks, China's cheap labor market is being replaced by other countries. China's GDP is going to go lower of time to the point of no return.

Most of China struggled to survived with the of a couple of bucks for thousands of years. As I said, for the past 200 years China's economy was **** and even then foreigners failed to break China into dozens of little pieces when they tried.

 

[S10]

What's this? Oh wait it's just atawolf forgetting his medication again. Does he have a "China Collapse" generator for these wild theories or what?

 

[Audio]

How Badly Flawed is Chinese Economic Data? The Opening Bid is $1 Trillion

Abstract:
Baseline Chinese economic data is unreliable. Taking published National Bureau of Statistics China data on the components of consumer price inflation, I attempt to reconcile the official data to third party data. Three problems are apparent in official NBSC data on inflation. First, the base data on housing price inflation is manipulated. According to the NBSC, urban private housing occupants enjoyed a total price increase of only 6% between 2000 and 2011. Second, while renters faced cumulative price increases in excess of 50% during the same period, the NBSC classifies most Chinese households has private housing occupants making them subject to the significantly lower inflation rate. Third, despite beginning in the year 2000 with nearly two-thirds of Chinese households in rural areas, the NSBC applies a straight 80/20 urban/rural private housing weighting throughout our time sample. This further skews the accuracy of the final data. To correct for these manipulative practices, I use third party and related NBSC data to better estimate the change in consumer prices in China between 2000 and 2011. I find that using conservative assumptions about price increases the annual CPI in China by approximately 1%. This reduces real Chinese GDP by 8-12% or more than $1 trillion in PPP terms.

How Badly Flawed is Chinese Economic Data? The Opening Bid is $1 Trillion by Christopher Balding :: SSRN

Why Does Anyone Still Believe Chinese Data?

 

[StarCraft_ZT]

This is the truth. Most of China still struggles to survive with couple of bucks per year.

Most Chinese? How much? 90% according to you? You mean a country with 20 million automobiles consumption per year, same as US, is poor? Where do you get the superiority? Now tell me where is turkey on the map? 90% Chinese don't know.

but China's economic future dependens on foreign demand

Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) | Data | Table

You can check it by yourself.

According to Exports of goods and services (% of GDP), China is 31% in 2012, Canada is 30%, Denmark is 53%, Finland is 41%, France is 27%, Germany is 50%, Korea is 56%, Mexico is 32%, Russia is 30%, Spain is 30%, UK is 32%. Now, what do you think? Foreign dependence itself is a neutral concept, we have been shifting from exporting primary products to high level product. I can vouch your that once China's domestic market is no longer suppressed, our economy will boost by continuous endogenous growth.

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One thing share with you:

China has the biggest proven shale gas reserve on earth, 2nd is US.

Reserves are in trillions of cubic feet.

China is 1275, Turkey is 15. Now, do you understand who is more dependent on external resources? In next few decades, we will replace Saudi Arabia, because we have 1/6 world's shale gas reserve.

World Shale Gas Resources

I can tell you more things.

China has been carrying forward free market interest rate, which will give unprecedented opportunities for SMEs who make the most contribution to economy. China has abandoned the control of the floor of interest of loan, in next 3 years, we will relieve the upper limit of deposit interest rate. So, financial assets will flow to where is needed, that's exactly a free market economy.

China's cheap labor market is being replaced by other countries. China's GDP is going to go lower of time to the point of no return.

I told you before, but you never listen. I really wish we have higher labor cost, but by a slowly increase. Once our salaries get promoted, we will have more disposable income, there will be more consumption, and consequently in the end, we won't rely on export primary or basic product. Get it?

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Your main concern should be whether you can join EU, rather than predict China's economic failure. Why don't they accept you? I guess, they are afraid you are next Greece. You will slow their economic down to some extent.

 

[StarCraft_ZT]

How Badly Flawed is Chinese Economic Data? The Opening Bid is $1 Trillion



How Badly Flawed is Chinese Economic Data? The Opening Bid is $1 Trillion by Christopher Balding :: SSRN

Why Does Anyone Still Believe Chinese Data?

Welcome ! Our east Euro friend! It's not important you believe or not. Now you can tell everyone in the world our data is fake. But, they still care about our economy, there always should be someone out there doing the data research with convincing reference, unlike your useless comments. We are business partners with many countries, including yours. Once we are over, you are over too. Now care about yourself. Thank you.

 

[Audio]

Welcome ! Our east Euro friend! It's not important you believe or not. Now you can tell everyone in the world our data is fake. But, they still care about our economy, there always should be someone out there doing the data research with convincing reference, unlike your useless comments. We are business partners with many countries, including yours. Once we are over, you are over too. Now care about yourself. Thank you.

I'm not talking about "over", just about a possible reevaluation of some often cited timetables by your fellow coworkers from the 50 cent HQ.

 

[StarCraft_ZT]

I'm not talking about "over", just about a possible reevaluation of some often cited timetables by your fellow coworkers from the 50 cent HQ.

Ok, then let them do it. It's not common people's concern.

As for GDP, it's not fake, because statistical method varies from central govt to provincial govt. A small portion of GDP was counted twice. Don't know about inflation. But our official PMI is higher than HSBC's.

Not a single country could keep a rapid growth all the way. We are actually conducting structural reform, unlike that in 2008, we are not printing more money but we are re-allocating money in circulation to where is needed. From real estate to SMEs and the real industry. So, it's no surprise there is a temporary down trend. Just like taking an injection to cure illness, you have to bear the pain to get fully cured, right?

 

[Audio]

Ok, then let them do it. It's not common people's concern.

As for GDP, it's not fake, because statistical method varies from central govt to provincial govt. A small portion of GDP was counted twice. Don't know about inflation. But our official PMI is higher than HSBC's.

Not a single country could keep a rapid growth all the way. We are actually conducting structural reform, unlike that in 2008, we are not printing more money but we are re-allocating money in circulation to where is needed. From real estate to SMEs and the real industry. So, it's no surprise there is a temporary down trend. Just like taking an injection to cure illness, you have to bear the pain to get fully cured, right?

Cool deflection. The article i linked doesn't talk about the phantom province that coincidentally also accounts for 1 trill.$.....that's the small portion that was counted twice.
It also doesn't talk about HSBC, but Chinese national statistics bureau.
It talks about inflation scam. How people are counted as urban dwellers, artifically increasing "wealth".

As for printing:

CHINA MONEY SUPPLY M2

Money Supply M2 in China increased to 105450 CNY Billion in June of 2013 from 104208.80 CNY Billion in May of 2013. Money Supply M2 in China is reported by the People's Bank of China. China Money Supply M2 averaged 34924.35 CNY Billion from 1996 until 2013, reaching an all time high of 105450.00 CNY Billion in June of 2013 and a record low of 5840.10 CNY Billion in January of 1996. China Money Supply M2 includes M1 plus short-term time deposits in banks

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/money-supply-m2

 

[StarCraft_ZT]

Cool deflection. The article i linked doesn't talk about the phantom province that coincidentally also accounts for 1 trill.$.....that's the small portion that was counted twice.
It also doesn't talk about HSBC, but Chinese national statistics bureau.

Yes, I clearly saw it. Why should I stick to every word of that? Are you mad? By the same logic, this thread is NOTHING about Chinese national statistics bureau, why you dragged it in? Now blame me for deflection?

Now prove me how your "saint" got the right figure.

 

[StarCraft_ZT]

As for printing:

CHINA MONEY SUPPLY M2

Money Supply M2 in China increased to 105450 CNY Billion in June of 2013 from 104208.80 CNY Billion in May of 2013. Money Supply M2 in China is reported by the People's Bank of China. China Money Supply M2 averaged 34924.35 CNY Billion from 1996 until 2013, reaching an all time high of 105450.00 CNY Billion in June of 2013 and a record low of 5840.10 CNY Billion in January of 1996. China Money Supply M2 includes M1 plus short-term time deposits in banks


China Money Supply M2 | Actual Value | Historical Data | Forecast

YES, our M2 is indeed 105450 CNY Billion, absolutely right. I already knew it's 105450. If you compare this increment to that of same period last year, you will find it's a tiny growth, the rate is getting slower. You gonna use it disappointing me? So, that's what I said before, we are NOT adding more money to circulation, given this alert.

Household saving deposits also contributes to an important part of M2, that's real wealth growth.

Look at the blue data on the last column. M2 growth rate from 2008 to 2012. There is a fiscal stimulus plan in 2008, so it rise sharply by 11%. After that, it's slowing down. In 1993, M2 growth rate is 37%. Now, the 14% increment is 2nd biggest since 2000.

 

[China_Rising]

This is the truth. Most of China still struggles to survive with couple of bucks per year. You might not like it, because I'm the messenger, but China's economic future dependens on foreign demand, and as you can read from the article, I doubt you read it since I see so many personal attacks, China's cheap labor market is being replaced by other countries. China's GDP is going to go lower of time to the point of no return.

GDP (PPP) per capita of China is $9,150 as of 2012, which means it has caught up to middle-income nations. Turkey is around $15,000 as of 2012.

Seeing as how intelligence explains much of the variation in economic and social development *independently*, China will almost certainly become as wealthy per capita as Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, etc.

Isn't it interesting how such indicators tend to correlate strongly with geographic region? China and North Korea are the only exceptions to the rule, which means that with the correct political and economic reforms, they will become indistinguishable in development to the other East Asian nations. Turkey has already reached her peak.

 

[atatwolf]

Obviously I get attacked because I'm the messenger but I'm only using facts. Only 5-10% of China has western standard of living. Yes, nobody is denying that. I'm talking about the remaining 90% of China who lives with couple of bucks per year. Most Chinese work in sweatshops or something similar as slave labor. I don't see how in couple of years Chinese will be able to buy their own products.

As I said earlier China, is depednent of foreign consumerism. China itself can't have consumer market. It is impossible economically. China's average population is already 40 year per capita. Sooner the later labor market will be replaced by those countries mentioned in the article. What will happen to China is obvious.

This must be done since China is commiting big crimes but biggest reason will be because those emerging countries mentioned in the country are just better and offer better conditions. The red writting is appearing on the wall for China, you just have to see it. The time to pay will come. I recommend you start reading the article. It already explains everything. Just point to me where you don't agree FROM the article.

 

[StarCraft_ZT]

I'm talking about the remaining 90% of China who lives with couple of bucks per year.

Source, link, data. FROM world bank, IMF, any statistical materials, any research paper.