randomradio
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No disrespect gentlemen, I was not saying its impossible for DA to make 36 jets in 36 months, but impossible for DA to deliver it all to India in 36 months.
My argument being:
36 months from 2016 - Lets call it 2019 end.
2017
1 unit for France
3 units for Egypt
Line up-gradation to continue. Qatar standard to complete testing. Indian standard to begin testing.
Source: http://www.dassault-aviation.tv/first_half_year_2016_results-1416-en.html and multiple official documents.
Order Backlog 2017 End: France(31) Egypt(15) Qatar (24) India (36) = 131 units
2018 - 2019
24 months = 22 production months
2/month = 44 jets in 2 years
I'd personally be really surprised if France delivers 36 jets to India while only 8 jets get delivered to Qatar & Egypt combined in 2 years. Which is nearly 2 jets a year to both customers?
3/month looks highly unlikely unless more orders flows in. Also keep in consideration that option clause for Egypt will be placed only upon delivery of first 24 jets. At 33/year output, the current order book of 106 jets (including 31 French units) won't last beyond 2021? Or excluding French orders, it wont last end of 2020. Makes no economical sense for such a ramp up unless another tranche of orders are placed.
P.S: Just assumptions and personal opinion after all.
Good Day!
For India, the financial year goes up to March, while for France, it ends in December. Anyway, in 2018, production may only be 22 jets, but in 2019 it can be increased to 33. If this happens, which is realistic, Dassault can produce 27 jets for India by December 2019, or all 36 by March 2020.
It would be even better if production touches 27 jets, at 2.5/month by mid 2018. Then all 36 can likely be produced by December 2019.