Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[SQ8]

Previous thread quite extended, continue discussions here.
Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions | Page 694

 

[rockstar08]

still not signed the deal yet ?

Naya thread a gaya lakin jahaaz nai aya

 

[IrbiS]

 

[PARIKRAMA]

The option of Sukhoi is just to make Dassault feel a bit of pressure perhaps. See at 272 Su30 MKI +42 Super Sukhois (status of contract unknown) for Nuclear strike role makes it total of 314. Assuming even if numbers are increased to say 500 birds with modernization and assimilation of AESA and Newer BVR missiles + Brahmos M... Result will be a topline heavy cost intensive and high lifecycle cost birds. Reason being, the MKIs are not like fully locally TOTised but rather licence produced at HAL. Meaning for another 180-200 birds we would only pay royalty and manufacture what we already have - A heavy class air superiority bird. Also even with a high production rate the whole reaching 500 kind of figure would take at least 10-12 years just for production, leaving the need of higher number of qualified pilots who can pilot/handle MKI. The maintanence of engine and flying hours being limited will mean we got to stock a much larger number or buy out a whole line for all future purpose.. Either ways its gonna shoot up the cost.

The fact remains that Dassault contract of 15-17Bn would be signed as soon as
A) India makes budgetary allocation for newer purchases (expected in first full budget of arun jaitley FM in Feb 2015 for acquisition from April 2015 onwards
B) Dassualt works out the issue with HAL and takes full responsibility of 108 birds.

Interestingly, i have been hearing a figure of 20-22 Bn $ also but guess what.... not for 126 but a total of 189 birds. A round figure of 126 +63 follow on complete deal size.

Again a strange question in front of our MOD.. a potential Hi-Mid-Lo combination if it is what forsighted then where is Mid in case of more MKIs? assuming Lo is taken care by LCA MK1.. Will proposed MK2 still be Lo only or now it is envisioned to come under Mid bracket. Another point, with say HOT ENGINE technology for GE 414 (for operation under extreme hot temperature), the chances of MK2 coming with more enhanced capacity has increased. Thus, it is a gud guess if Dassault does not take 100% onus for HAL produced ones then the MOD and possibly our PM may entrust our requirement focused surely on LCA MK2 and trumphet it as Make in India's biggest and most ambitious project.

But there is a flip side. USA for some time had been creating slowing/delaying tactics for dual use technologies procurement. A case in example is our own High Altitude Long Endurance program for UAVs which is missing a critical equipment which is procured from USA, a dual use technology. and now there are talks of Amercian HALE UAV being discussed by IN.. So can India be assured that critical tech like Hot engine tech may also not get botched up or delayed just to sell say a more costlier engine/ fighter jet being offered by USA??

I guess DM Parrikar comments are much more than what meets the eye. A very good point now would be to look at all directions to see who is holding what cards close to their hearts and whats hiding up in sleeves...

 

[nik22]

still not signed the deal yet ?

Naya thread a gaya lakin jahaaz nai aya

The way things are going, this might not come at all.

 

[jha]

The option of Sukhoi is just to make Dassault feel a bit of pressure perhaps. See at 272 Su30 MKI +42 Super Sukhois (status of contract unknown) for Nuclear strike role makes it total of 314. Assuming even if numbers are increased to say 500 birds with modernization and assimilation of AESA and Newer BVR missiles + Brahmos M... Result will be a topline heavy cost intensive and high lifecycle cost birds. Reason being, the MKIs are not like fully locally TOTised but rather licence produced at HAL. Meaning for another 180-200 birds we would only pay royalty and manufacture what we already have - A heavy class air superiority bird. Also even with a high production rate the whole reaching 500 kind of figure would take at least 10-12 years just for production, leaving the need of higher number of qualified pilots who can pilot/handle MKI. The maintanence of engine and flying hours being limited will mean we got to stock a much larger number or buy out a whole line for all future purpose.. Either ways its gonna shoot up the cost.

Su-30s ordered till date are supposed to enter IAF by 2019 if I am not wrong. Ordering another hundred of these will run the production line for another 5 years ( If a new production line is not created for these extra planes ).

Su-30MKI is being produced now in HAL from Raw materials. Just count the number of years HAL has taken to absorb the TOT. We can safely assume Rafale's will take similar time. That means HAL will either assemble from kits manufactured by OEMs from France ( with manufacturing fe sub systems ofcourse to show off as TOT ) or, take its own sweet time to absorb TOT. In either case, there is no use to spend so much money as the planes will come too late for augmenting the falling numbers.

The fact remains that Dassault contract of 15-17Bn would be signed as soon as
A) India makes budgetary allocation for newer purchases (expected in first full budget of arun jaitley FM in Feb 2015 for acquisition from April 2015 onwards
B) Dassualt works out the issue with HAL and takes full responsibility of 108 birds.

Both are big IFs.

Again a strange question in front of our MOD.. a potential Hi-Mid-Lo combination if it is what forsighted then where is Mid in case of more MKIs? assuming Lo is taken care by LCA MK1.. Will proposed MK2 still be Lo only or now it is envisioned to come under Mid bracket. Another point, with say HOT ENGINE technology for GE 414 (for operation under extreme hot temperature), the chances of MK2 coming with more enhanced capacity has increased. Thus, it is a gud guess if Dassault does not take 100% onus for HAL produced ones then the MOD and possibly our PM may entrust our requirement focused surely on LCA MK2 and trumphet it as Make in India's biggest and most ambitious project.

First MRCA choice was Mirage. Later the competition was opened up for rather heavy fighters like Rafale, Typhoon and SH. LCA-II will be in similar class of Mirage.

Interestingly, i have been hearing a figure of 20-22 Bn $ also but guess what.... not for 126 but a total of 189 birds. A round figure of 126 +63 follow on complete deal size.

If Scorpene deal is any indication, we Will pay ~$ 20 Bill. for 126 planes itself. There always will be some difficulty or, other on our Industries to deliver sub-systems in time and we will be forced to source them from OEMs, jacking up the cost.

But there is a flip side. USA for some time had been creating slowing/delaying tactics for dual use technologies procurement. A case in example is our own High Altitude Long Endurance program for UAVs which is missing a critical equipment which is procured from USA, a dual use technology. and now there are talks of Amercian HALE UAV being discussed by IN.. So can India be assured that critical tech like Hot engine tech may also not get botched up or delayed just to sell say a more costlier engine/ fighter jet being offered by USA??

Thats why local Aerospace industries should be encouraged by investing in them. If France's decision to block Russian Mistral ( which was paid by Russia ) is any indication, they are no more neutral and are influenced by NATO's decisions. We should be careful with them as well.

 

[nik22]

By Ajai Shukla
Business Standard, 1st Jan 2015

For the first time since January 31, 2012, when the French Rafale fighter was chosen as the future medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) for the Indian Air Force (IAF), a top Indian official has admitted serious problems in negotiating the purchase with French vendor, Dassault.

Speaking to the media on Tuesday evening, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar said there were “complications” in the negotiations that have already dragged on for almost three years, with the French side reluctant to meet commitments that the IAF had specified in the tender.

Parrikar did not reveal details. Business Standard has reported earlier on Dassault’s unwillingness to assume responsibility for the production of Rafales by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, which the tender mandated. HAL is to build 108 Rafales in India with technology transferred from Dassault and its sub-vendors.

Ominously for Dassault, Parrikar said that additional Sukhoi-30MKI fighters, which HAL builds in Nashik, were adequate for the IAF in case it was decided not to procure the Rafale.

The IAF currently plans to have 272 Su-30MKI fighters by about 2018. HAL’s Nashik production line is building the fighter at Rs 358 crore each, less than half the estimated cost of buying the Rafale.

“The Su-30MKI is an adequate aircraft for meeting the air force’s needs”, said Parrikar.

Earlier this month, Parrikar had assured his French counterpart, Jean-Yves Le Drian, during the latter’s visit to New Delhi on December 1, that Rafale negotiations would be placed on a “fast track”, according to MoD officials.

The defence minister revealed on Tuesday that the French defence minister “has (committed) to send an empowered person to negotiate after New Year.”

According to the terms of the MMRCA tender, 18 of the 126 fighters being bought would be supplied fully built abroad, with the remaining 108 manufactured by HAL. The cost of the project, originally sanctioned at Rs 42,000 crore, has now crossed Rs 100,000 crore, according to expert estimates.

 

[jha]

@Abingdonboy

That thread got deleted. Let me explain it here.

MRCA is vital for IAF to augment the numbers of planes. However the way things are moving and Dassault is digging its heel, I dont see the deal being signed before Mid-2015 ( at the earliest ). By 2017/2018, First France made Squads will arrive. After that the toatl production will be done in HAL facilities. As per HAL's record till date, only way HAL can produce One Squad/Year is by assembling CKDs coming from OEMs. Otherwise HAL will take atleast 6-7 years to absorb TOT enough for producing One Squad/ Year. So, 4-5 Squad of Rafale by 2022 is a very very big target.

Lets check the Per hour Flying Costs now : In 2012, Janes had conducted a study and had found per hour flying cost of western fighter Jets (except F-22 ) for Rafale to be $16.5K. For EF-2000, they had estimated this to be ~18K. F-35 was costliest to fly ($26-31K ). Gripen was ~$5K.

Any such study for SU-30MKI is not known to me. However there was a thread here where they had estimated it to be $14K/Hour. Even if we add 50% more to this, the figure still is not double of Rafale's per hour flying cost.


In 2011, the MRCA deal was worth $10-11 Bill. Going by even conservative estimates, cost has ballooned to $15-16 Bill. Even if we sign the deal in Mid-2015, Total cost will be sure to be ~$ 18 Bill ( This figure is a very optimistic one going by their antics in P-75 ).

Indian Rafales are most likely to be excluded from future development program ( Even Sancho ( biggest Rafale Supporter here) has mentioned this in his latest posts ). We will be just a Customer nothing else. For any upgrade in future, we will be paying them just like we paid in Mirage ( And we know how much they charge for any such upgrades ).

 

[Koovie]

Prepare for a third thread.........

 

[rockstar08]

Prepare for a third thread.........

buy Eurofighter ..

 

[sancho]

The option of Sukhoi is just to make Dassault feel a bit of pressure perhaps.

Exactly, just as a threat to canel the whole tender, but that's a cheap threat, since everybody knows that IAF will never go for more MKIs to make itself more dependent on Russia, nor that IAF want more heavy class fighters, with 200+ FGFA on the list anyway. So that's a a pretty silly bluff and the only chance to actually put pressure on Dassault is the EF.

Indian Rafales are most likely to be excluded from future development program ( Even Sancho ( biggest Rafale Supporter here) has mentioned this in his latest posts ).

I never said that India will be excluded, but that Dassault is focusing only on French requirements and not on joint requirements and seeing us as a partner. They might offer us joint production of parts developed mainly for the French forces, but does that help our requirements? We probably will see a more customized Rafale for India, based on the upgrades Dassault develops for France.

 

[C130]

why was SU-34 never considered for MMRCA??

 

[sancho]

First MRCA choice was Mirage. Later the competition was opened up for rather heavy fighters like Rafale, Typhoon and SH. LCA-II will be in similar class of Mirage.

Mirage 2000 emptyweight - 7500Kg
Gripen E - 8000Kg
F16 Block 52 - 9200Kg
Rafale - 9500Kg
F16 IN - with AESA, IRST, CFTs with refuelling probe..., around 9900Kg

why was SU-34 never considered for MMRCA??

Because it's not a medium class fighter.

 

[C130]

Mirage 2000 emptyweight - 7500Kg
Gripen E - 8000Kg
F16 Block 52 - 9200Kg
Rafale - 9500Kg
F16 IN - with AESA, IRST, CFTs with refuelling probe..., around 9900Kg



Because it's not a medium class fighter.

Ooo makes sense.

 

[kurup]

Second thread and the deal has not been signed yet .....