Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[PARIKRAMA]

You remember

++++++++++++++
Update... Source based..

Rafale deal is a big go....

(Take with bags of salt )

1. Base year negotiation 2015 fixed finally from earlier negotiated 2011
2. Price brought down to Euro 8Bn from initial Euro 11.5 Bn (with 2011 as base year)
3. Further negotiations to trim down price to Euro 7.2-7.3 Bn implying another 700-800 Mn Euros
4. The customizations may see some more cost trimming
5. The support package + infrastructure package getting re negotiated.
6. Jet+Weapons loaded is capped at Euro 100 Mn or Euro 3.6 Bn
7. Effectively another 3.6 Bn is for support +infra+ training+ TCO+ spares+customizations+others
8. Cost of infrastructure in terms of materials and manhours now being cited to reduce per base cost from earlier Euro 1.2 Bn per base
9. Delivery schedule from 36 months from 2019 (3 years) and will be completed 2022 (5.5 years)
10. MII part resolved. India has informed French Government MII needs to be done urgently owing to other competitive offers.. The surprise competitors are - Eurofighter (backed by Germany and UK) and F18s (USA/Boeing). Decision will be and implemented max to max by December 2016 for work to start immediately.. (any 1 of the 3 with first preference being Dassault)
11. 10th point.. Shocker competition.... Angela Merkel on her last visit emphasized less on Submarines more on EF make in India.. Seems sweeter includes an AESA radar of NG for complete TOT + other considerable goodies with tech sharing for EJ 200 and EJ230 joint effort with TVC to power AMCA.
    
12. It seems DM MP has personally informed Jean-Yves Le Drian about it when they met in New Delhi and said GOI wants a firm MII decision implemented by max Dec 2016 with start of work immediately. The EF offer in hush hush mode is the second trump card besides Russian FGFA program+ more MKI. DA seems to have fallen in line for threat of losing the lucrative 200+ jet market and that too to a European Rival...

So India's final cost working expected around Euro 7.2 Bn-7.3Bn or at Euro/INR 77 its Rs 55450 Crs - Rs 56210 Crs
++++++++++++++++++++++++

Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2] | Page 120

A special emphasis on these 2 points

10. MII part resolved. India has informed French Government MII needs to be done urgently owing to other competitive offers.. The surprise competitors are - Eurofighter (backed by Germany and UK) and F18s (USA/Boeing). Decision will be and implemented max to max by December 2016 for work to start immediately.. (any 1 of the 3 with first preference being Dassault)
​

An update on this in news media...

Officially throwing open the contest for fighter aircraft once again, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar said that India will select one or two fighter aircraft which will be manufactured locally by a private company under Make in India initiative. This is in addition to the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA), the production of which is being scaled up.

India and France are in advanced stage of talks to conclude an inter-governmental agreement for the direct purchase of 36 Rafale fighter jets. This fighter aircraft will likely be other than the Rafale.

“Under the Make in India process we may have one or two more jet fighter plants in India by the private sector,” Mr. Parrikar said on Tuesday on the sidelines of a job creation summit organised by Wadhwani Foundation.

He said that several proposals are under consideration and “through proper process we may select them to make in India.”

While emphasising that there will be at least one or two fighter jets that may be selected, Mr. Parrikar said a decision is likely to be taken by year end.

“India has the need for that number of aircraft but this does not mean increasing defence budget to cater to the purchases. This can be done by reducing defence expenditure in other areas,” he stressed.

Mr. Parrikar said his ministry is in an advanced stage of giving approval to Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) for setting up a second assembly line for the LCA to increase the production rate from eight to 16 aircraft per year.

The Air Force is expected to induct over 100 of the improved LCA which will feature an Advanced Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, mid-air refuelling and improved electronic warfare suite in addition to other minor improvements.

Stating that HAL has currently streamlined the assembly line for production of eight aircraft per year, Mr. Parrikar said that this will absorb between 10,000 to 20,000 people in the full ecosystem.

Even as the Rafale talks are on, Mr. Parrikar had said that it is not a replacement for the much smaller MIGs which are now being phased out. With this, companies who lost out in the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft contest (MMRCA) have been pitching their aircraft in anticipation of a comeback into the race.

Boeing and Lockheed Martin of the U.S. and Saab of Sweden have recently offered to establish manufacturing plants in India and transfer technology if their fighter aircraft were selected for the Indian Air Force.

India to select one or more fighter aircraft, to be built by private sector under Make in India initiative - The Hindu

+++
Observation
In line with what @randomradio has stated before, there is a scope for inducting 1 or 2 jets under MII
Two statements

• “Under the Make in India process we may have one or two more jet fighter plants in India by the private sector,”
• This fighter aircraft will likely be other than the Rafale.

Both of these points suggest the fighter should be placed in between perhaps Rafale and LCA. The point to observe is

“India has the need for that number of aircraft but this does not mean increasing defence budget to cater to the purchases. This can be done by reducing defence expenditure in other areas,”

and

"With this, companies who lost out in the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft contest (MMRCA) have been pitching their aircraft in anticipation of a comeback into the race."

This seems to suggest that within the budget this permutation combination will be made.. So a question to ask is how will you accomodate another fighter within the budget unless you eat out part of Rafales and LCA budget..

An example is (all assumptions to understand)

if LCA was originally planned for say an hypothetical 250 jets you decrease 100 from there.
If Rafales were originally planned for say 200 jets you decrease 100 there too

You get something around USD 28 x 100 (LCA) + USD 100 x 100 = USD 13000

And buy instead 150 jets with this price for say USD 85 Mn approx

We actually replaced 200 jets with 150 but ensure this production line delivers much quicker and in parallel with others..

Now question comes in my mind,

• this jet owing to a price similar to Rafale or say 15-20% cheaper offers what % in terms of capability of Rafale?
• the other question if the said jet is double the cost of LCA or more, what additional capability it brings above LCA?

If its a Gripen or say LSA how this single fighter does not scuttle our plan for further development of LCA?
If its F18 or EF how this does not scuttle Rafale line aspect and our benefit from it?

A third aspect.. Is it just a pressure tactic..after all, we want Dassault and French side to agree as per our requirements..

or a fourth aspect .. a repeat of 150 Mirages to be bought versus actually 51.. the story of early1980s..

@Abingdonboy @Taygibay @Vauban @MilSpec @anant_s @Picdelamirand-oil @randomradio @raktaka
I would love to hear all of your views.. This is getting a bit more murky unless i am missing something

 

[raktaka]

Sadly, in another thread i had already posted HAL efficiency vs cost of production and the salary they draw for ...

1. If we aspire and talk about parallel processing or activity level in HAL sadly you are mistaken.. If you say its a company for example L&T i will agree nonetheless but HAL ability is limited and thus it does not have shorter production schedule.

I work with HAL and have a far better understanding of production process. HAL is not a model company, but it is not a hopeless organisation either. Their competency is well established and their employees are well trained for most parts. Prejudiced speculation should have no space here.

2. Yes i said increase in cost of production owing to the fact that elongated production schedule implies more number of days required for finishing a production and HAl being a govt entity which employs a sizeable number in excess of 34K approx employees ends up compensating them for their inefficiency.

Irrelevant. Efficiency here need to be calculated in terms of productivity / USD ($). In such a measurement. HAL will come out AHEAD of Dassault.

3. True automation decreases the need of many blocks in production schedule decreasing the overall timeline.. Unfortunately, automation and quality cannot be directly compared as you rightly pointed about hand made car but Bentley market is limited owing to the cost factor. Here we are talking about a jet which needs to be mass produced.. Mass produced units are not hand made but rather combination of machine and man made...

You mean 10,000 Bentleys per year as compared to 12-18 Rafale per year ? Do you realize how absurd you sound ?

An example to suggest is number of employees Dassault has versus HAL has and compare the automation level + human skill levels versus HAL automation + skill levels.. The quality control aspect of HAL just meets our standards but not the market standards as laid by most of the global majors...

Irrelevant. As long as HAL delivers to OUR Standard, it is doing its job.

If you or IAF is not happy, they are free to Raise their standard and convince. DGAQA to do so.

as for why i said about hal, this is the basis

using the data from this link :http://www. hal-india. com/Common/ Uploads/Finance/Annual-Report-2013-14- English.pdf
which is basically the annual report for 2013-14

and

You see the trend shows, Sales per employee to avg employee cost showed a positive trend till 2006-07 post which it fell down and is hovering at a rate which is somewhat similar to 2004-05 time era.

Again you demonstrate limited understanding of productivity.

In 99-00 USD was 43 Rs per dollar. In 13-14 USD was 63 Rs per Dollar. So in Global terms HAL Productivity has INCREASED over time. As measured in Productivity per Dollar.

Further more since Average Manpower cost is INCREASING EVERY YEAR due to inflation, HAL has managed to hold the sales per employee to between 5.0 -6.0 since 2010 shows stable productivity and a good Sigma process.

This proves that avg employee cost in spite of higher sales resulting into higher sales per employee is clearly offset by increase in manpower costs which is also observed in the excel.

IRRELEVANT.

The other way to interpret is that manpower cost to sales growth ratio

this shows the human capital costs as part of sales is down from original 99-00 timeline and is now around 18%.

The decreasing trend of this and asymmetric trend in sales per employee to average manpower cost suggests that employees could be used for better productivity than whats they are at present doing. That may result in better productivity and higher sales.

Of course ........ Productivity can ALWAYS be increased. 3 sigma can become 6 sigma, 6 sigma can become 9 sigma. That is continues improvement. But that is IRRELEVANT to the issue at hand.

Made in India is costlier; joint development is mere purchase

So you can explain why manpower cost/sales showing a decreasing trend versus sales per employee/avg manpower cost is both linear for last decade or so .. both going downwards..

LOL...If I am to be hired as an Productivity expert by HAL I can do so. But for now, that is IRRELEVANT.

For now with all its shortcomings HAL is far more productive than Dasasult for productivity PER Dollar. or EURO.

And that is ALL that should matter.

Or am I missing something here ?

 

[PARIKRAMA]

I work with HAL and have a far better understanding of production process. HAL is not a model company, but it is not a hopeless organisation either. Their competency is well established and their employees are well trained for most parts. Prejudiced speculation should have no space here.



Irrelevant. Efficiency here need to be calculated in terms of productivity / USD ($). In such a measurement. HAL will come out AHEAD of Dassault.



You mean 10,000 Bentleys per year as compared to 12-18 Rafale per year ? Do you realize how absurd you sound ?


Irrelevant. As long as HAL delivers to OUR Standard, it is doing its job.

If you or IAF is not happy, they are free to Raise their standard and convince. DGAQA to do so.



Again you demonstrate limited understanding of productivity.

In 99-00 USD was 43 Rs per dollar. In 13-14 USD was 63 Rs per Dollar. So in Global terms HAL Productivity has INCREASED over time. As measured in Productivity per Dollar.

Further more since Average Manpower cost is INCREASING EVERY YEAR due to inflation, HAL has managed to hold the sales per employee to between 5.0 -6.0 since 2010 shows stable productivity and a good Sigma process.



IRRELEVANT.



Of course ........ Productivity can ALWAYS be increased. 3 sigma can become 6 sigma, 6 sigma can become 9 sigma. That is continues improvement. But that is IRRELEVANT to the issue at hand.


LOL...If I am to be hired as an Productivity expert by HAL I can do so. But for now, that is IRRELEVANT.

For now with all its shortcomings HAL is far more productive than Dasasult for productivity PER Dollar. or EURO.

And that is ALL that should matter.

Or am I missing something here ?

Sadly i deleted the post thinking it will go off topic.. BTW all are in rupee terms.. i did not consider any other currency as figures from HAL carries INR not USD

As for HAL, i may not be working for HAL but i do work for a company which specializes on certain aspects of work which tends to directly result in Indian economic position and might.. Perhaps thats why i was quoting something which is being looked at ministry level...

I wont say you are wrong nor i would say i am wrong.... But i would always say HAL is not as rosy as any other DPSU
is nor is a model PSU by any standards.. any given day there are far better managed PSU available which are bigger cash cows for GOI then HAL which has been a let down with limitations imposed by government itself..

 

[raktaka]

As I said It was a low part of the price, the problem was not the price, the problem was a formal problem because the MMRCA rules was very strict. The evaluation of the price made by the commission was not agree by Dassault due to the discrepancies, nobody never think that there will be such a difference in man-hours needed, but the final result was that the price on which Dassault was declared L1 is not the final price of the proposal. In fact Dassault is L1 because the same would have happen with Eurofighter, but there is no proof. One can say that it is the fault of Dassault, or due to the organisation of the competition or the fault of HAL, but me I just tell you the story.

All it proves is that either,

1. Dassault DID NOT DO DUE DILIGENCE. ..... or

2. Dassault DID do due diligence but then decided to CON India.

HAL as partner was clearly spelled out in the RFP so common sense dictate ANYONE would first seek information from HAL regarding its overheads before calculating the final cost and submitting the proposal.

You have admitted to Dassault seeking to revising the L1 after winning the contest. A CLEAR breach of rules and norms. I don't see why that should elicit any sympathy or empathy.

Then to cover up this INCOMPETENCE and blame HAL is Cheeky.

Sadly i deleted the post thinking it will go off topic.. BTW all are in rupee terms.. i did not consider any other currency as figures from HAL carries INR not USD

As for HAL, i may not be working for HAL but i do work for a company which specializes on certain aspects of work which tends to directly result in Indian economic position and might.. Perhaps thats why i was quoting something which is being looked at ministry level...

I wont say you are wrong nor i would say i am wrong.... But i would always say HAL is not as rosy as any other DPSU
is nor is a model PSU by any standards.. any given day there are far better managed PSU available which are bigger cash cows for GOI then HAL which has been a let down with limitations imposed by government itself..

Again Irrelevant.

Virtues of HAL or IAF is not the issue here. I fail to see how dragging that into the discussing can absolve Dassault of THEIR incompetency.

PS: I don't work FOR HAL, I work WITH HAL.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

PS: I don't work FOR HAL, I work WITH HAL.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

@Abingdonboy @Taygibay @Vauban @MilSpec @anant_s @Picdelamirand-oil @randomradio @raktaka
I would love to hear all of your views.. This is getting a bit more murky unless i am missing something

It is because Parrikar wants Mig-35

 

[raktaka]

You remember



Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2] | Page 120

A special emphasis on these 2 points

10. MII part resolved. India has informed French Government MII needs to be done urgently owing to other competitive offers.. The surprise competitors are - Eurofighter (backed by Germany and UK) and F18s (USA/Boeing). Decision will be and implemented max to max by December 2016 for work to start immediately.. (any 1 of the 3 with first preference being Dassault)
​

An update on this in news media...

Officially throwing open the contest for fighter aircraft once again, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar said that India will select one or two fighter aircraft which will be manufactured locally by a private company under Make in India initiative. This is in addition to the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA), the production of which is being scaled up.

India and France are in advanced stage of talks to conclude an inter-governmental agreement for the direct purchase of 36 Rafale fighter jets. This fighter aircraft will likely be other than the Rafale.

“Under the Make in India process we may have one or two more jet fighter plants in India by the private sector,” Mr. Parrikar said on Tuesday on the sidelines of a job creation summit organised by Wadhwani Foundation.

He said that several proposals are under consideration and “through proper process we may select them to make in India.”

While emphasising that there will be at least one or two fighter jets that may be selected, Mr. Parrikar said a decision is likely to be taken by year end.

“India has the need for that number of aircraft but this does not mean increasing defence budget to cater to the purchases. This can be done by reducing defence expenditure in other areas,” he stressed.

Mr. Parrikar said his ministry is in an advanced stage of giving approval to Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) for setting up a second assembly line for the LCA to increase the production rate from eight to 16 aircraft per year.

The Air Force is expected to induct over 100 of the improved LCA which will feature an Advanced Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, mid-air refuelling and improved electronic warfare suite in addition to other minor improvements.

Stating that HAL has currently streamlined the assembly line for production of eight aircraft per year, Mr. Parrikar said that this will absorb between 10,000 to 20,000 people in the full ecosystem.

Even as the Rafale talks are on, Mr. Parrikar had said that it is not a replacement for the much smaller MIGs which are now being phased out. With this, companies who lost out in the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft contest (MMRCA) have been pitching their aircraft in anticipation of a comeback into the race.

Boeing and Lockheed Martin of the U.S. and Saab of Sweden have recently offered to establish manufacturing plants in India and transfer technology if their fighter aircraft were selected for the Indian Air Force.

India to select one or more fighter aircraft, to be built by private sector under Make in India initiative - The Hindu

+++
Observation
In line with what @randomradio has stated before, there is a scope for inducting 1 or 2 jets under MII
Two statements

• “Under the Make in India process we may have one or two more jet fighter plants in India by the private sector,”
• This fighter aircraft will likely be other than the Rafale.

Both of these points suggest the fighter should be placed in between perhaps Rafale and LCA. The point to observe is

“India has the need for that number of aircraft but this does not mean increasing defence budget to cater to the purchases. This can be done by reducing defence expenditure in other areas,”

and

"With this, companies who lost out in the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft contest (MMRCA) have been pitching their aircraft in anticipation of a comeback into the race."

This seems to suggest that within the budget this permutation combination will be made.. So a question to ask is how will you accomodate another fighter within the budget unless you eat out part of Rafales and LCA budget..

An example is (all assumptions to understand)

if LCA was originally planned for say an hypothetical 250 jets you decrease 100 from there.
If Rafales were originally planned for say 200 jets you decrease 100 there too

You get something around USD 28 x 100 (LCA) + USD 100 x 100 = USD 13000

And buy instead 150 jets with this price for say USD 85 Mn approx

We actually replaced 200 jets with 150 but ensure this production line delivers much quicker and in parallel with others..

Now question comes in my mind,

• this jet owing to a price similar to Rafale or say 15-20% cheaper offers what % in terms of capability of Rafale?
• the other question if the said jet is double the cost of LCA or more, what additional capability it brings above LCA?

If its a Gripen or say LSA how this single fighter does not scuttle our plan for further development of LCA?
If its F18 or EF how this does not scuttle Rafale line aspect and our benefit from it?

A third aspect.. Is it just a pressure tactic..after all, we want Dassault and French side to agree as per our requirements..

or a fourth aspect .. a repeat of 150 Mirages to be bought versus actually 51.. the story of early1980s..

@Abingdonboy @Taygibay @Vauban @MilSpec @anant_s @Picdelamirand-oil @randomradio @raktaka
I would love to hear all of your views.. This is getting a bit more murky unless i am missing something

It is the most logical outcome of the mess that was MMRCA.

Final race will be between Grippen or F-16 to build cheap single engine fighters in India.

It make no difference since LCA, Grippen and F-16, ALL carries a US engine

I suspect the Aircraft that delivers MOST VALUE FOR MONEY will Win. More Bang for Buck.

Which means it will be Grippen NG.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

All it proves is that either,

1. Dassault DID NOT DO DUE DILIGENCE. ..... or

2. Dassault DID do due diligence but then decided to CON India.

HAL as partner was clearly spelled out in the RFP so common sense dictate ANYONE would first seek information from HAL regarding its overheads before calculating the final cost and submitting the proposal.

You have admitted to Dassault seeking to revising the L1 after winning the contest. A CLEAR breach of rules and norms. I don't see why that should elicit any sympathy or empathy.

Then to cover up this INCOMPETENCE and blame HAL is Cheeky.

France is proud that Its most incompetent companies are at Dassault level.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

@Picdelamirand-oil
Off topic but Sir, I see you are a professional now...Excellent.. Its good that webby gave the tags in 3 days approx..

 

[raktaka]

France is proud that Its most incompetent companies are at Dassault level.

Pride has its place, but not in business. Certainly not when looking to make a deal.

 

[Dash]

Please everybody, just go to

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Irrelevant. Efficiency here need to be calculated in terms of productivity / USD ($). In such a measurement. HAL will come out AHEAD of Dassault.

Dassault
Revenue €3.680 billion (2014) ===> $ 4 billion
Number of employees 11,745 (2014)
Productivity ($/employees) = $ 340570
Dassault Aviation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
HAL
Revenue 177.532614 billion (US$2.6 billion) (2014) ====> $ 2.6 billion
Number of employees 32108 (March, 2014)
Productivity ($/employees) = 80976
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

@Picdelamirand-oil
Off topic but Sir, I see you are a professional now...Excellent.. Its good that webby gave the tags in 3 days approx..

Thanks to you for asking this promotion for me. I remember that @randomradio asks it too and I thank him too.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Even though Gripen NG is a good jet but how will we gain by getting Gripen from SAAB?
Source and internal research says

• Gripen is making a major push for India’s large fighter purchase.
• They have a modified version of the Gripen NG, the Gripen IN, which is designed especially for India.
• It will produce the majority of the fighters in India, allowing India to eventually export their version of the Gripen.
• Price is about $65-70 million a plane, and technology transfers tend to be major selling points.
• Loaded with weapons reaches $80-85 Mn approx
• Customization cost will be different for IAF specific weapons and other specific needs.

Price
Source 1
The price of Gripen C/D is estimated around USD 61 Mn as per Philippines talks as per a news report in June 2015

Saab Jas 39 Gripen C/D Version Fighter Jets for the Philippines on its Way Soon

Source 2
According to Brazilian bid for Gripen NG (36 in numbers - 28 single and 8 double) the price is USD 4.8 Bn
Also,
The SECC, which loaned US $6.8 billion to support the overseas contract attainment activities of Swedish exporters in 2014, has approved a $4.8 billion credit to Brazil to cover the cost of acquisition for the Gripen NGs.

In addition, the SECC has extended a $245.3 million credit to allow Brazil to acquire weapons systems for the aircraft. The loans, which were green-lighted by the Brazilian Federal Senate on Aug. 5, carry a negotiated interest rate of 2.19 percent.

Sweden, Brazil Pursue Deeper Cooperation With $4.7B Gripen NG Deal

All inclusive package price puts USD 133 Mn per jet and weapons extra

Its estimated that Jet would be close to USD 75-80 Mn assuming 55-60% of the cost
Weapons add around USD 7 Mn more per jet so all inclusive around USD 82-87 Mn.
Point to note is weapons package is minimal here

Source 3
Reuters quote the deal to Be USD 5.4 Bn with USD 245 Mn for Weapons
UPDATE 2-Sweden lowers loan cost in Saab fighter deal for Brazil| Reuters
all inclusive package price puts Gripen at USD 150 Mn except weapons

That pegs jet around USD 85-90 Mn and weapons loaded at USD 7Mn to cost closer to USD 90-97 Mn assuming a similar 60% cost

Source 4
Flight global says its USD 4.68 Bn
Brazil finalises $4.68bn Gripen NG deal
Based on that package excluding weapons comes to USD 130 Mn or USD 75-78 Mn per jet cost
With weapons its USD 82-85 Mn

In terms of CPFH
As on 2014 beginning
The global fleet of Gripens now operated by the Czech Republic, Hungary, South Africa, Sweden and Thailand has logged 203,000 flight hours, according to Saab. The Swedish air force lists its current per-hour operating cost with the type as being around SKr48,000 ($7,560).
Saab reveals full Gripen E design, cost savings

Now estimated in and around USD 7000 on lower side and upper side USD 7500

IPR holding
Barring few most IPR are not held by Saab and will require some leeway from BAe and other US majors to allow technology transfer. BAe also holds a veto power.
Some also says few IP rights will be given to Brazil as per their deal perhaps jointly owned..


+++
So in all estimation around USD 65-70 Mn approx for India for a bigger order and weapons loaded closer to USD 80-85 Mn

• The question to ask what it brings to us that we should consider Gripen NG? As most things are not under Saab's control...
• Effectively is it not end game for LCA MK2?
• In terms of CPFH its smack in the middle of LCA and Rafale but undercutting both will help IAF how?
• Since there are plans for sea gripen, will that eat up LCA-N MK2 too?
• What technology can be used for say AMCA? Is it superior to combination of Rafale+FGFA derived tech?

What about the initial cost for manufacturing line? Will 40% cost which i left cover bases infra+training+support+services+others? or will that inflate more owing to multiple bases need?

@randomradio
Can you help with some data about Light Stealth Aircraft you talked about.. Wish to understand if Gripen NG is superior or inferior to that product potential?

 

[Dash]

Effectively is it not end game for LCA MK2?

Yes, Gripen is the final nail in the LCA's life size coffin. IAF will effectively close it down. Remember IAF is buying LAC against its will and Gripen is just the damn excuse they were looking for.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

Even though Gripen NG is a good jet but how will we gain by getting Gripen from SAAB?
Source and internal research says

• Gripen is making a major push for India’s large fighter purchase.
• They have a modified version of the Gripen NG, the Gripen IN, which is designed especially for India.
• It will produce the majority of the fighters in India, allowing India to eventually export their version of the Gripen.
• Price is about $65-70 million a plane, and technology transfers tend to be major selling points.
• Loaded with weapons reaches $80-85 Mn approx
• Customization cost will be different for IAF specific weapons and other specific needs.

Price
Source 1
The price of Gripen C/D is estimated around USD 61 Mn as per Philippines talks as per a news report in June 2015

View attachment 294260
Saab Jas 39 Gripen C/D Version Fighter Jets for the Philippines on its Way Soon

Source 2
According to Brazilian bid for Gripen NG (36 in numbers - 28 single and 8 double) the price is USD 4.8 Bn
Also,
The SECC, which loaned US $6.8 billion to support the overseas contract attainment activities of Swedish exporters in 2014, has approved a $4.8 billion credit to Brazil to cover the cost of acquisition for the Gripen NGs.

In addition, the SECC has extended a $245.3 million credit to allow Brazil to acquire weapons systems for the aircraft. The loans, which were green-lighted by the Brazilian Federal Senate on Aug. 5, carry a negotiated interest rate of 2.19 percent.

Sweden, Brazil Pursue Deeper Cooperation With $4.7B Gripen NG Deal

All inclusive package price puts USD 133 Mn per jet and weapons extra

Its estimated that Jet would be close to USD 75-80 Mn assuming 55-60% of the cost
Weapons add around USD 7 Mn more per jet so all inclusive around USD 82-87 Mn.
Point to note is weapons package is minimal here

Source 3
Reuters quote the deal to Be USD 5.4 Bn with USD 245 Mn for Weapons
UPDATE 2-Sweden lowers loan cost in Saab fighter deal for Brazil| Reuters
all inclusive package price puts Gripen at USD 150 Mn except weapons

That pegs jet around USD 85-90 Mn and weapons loaded at USD 7Mn to cost closer to USD 90-97 Mn assuming a similar 60% cost

Source 4
Flight global says its USD 4.68 Bn
Brazil finalises $4.68bn Gripen NG deal
Based on that package excluding weapons comes to USD 130 Mn or USD 75-78 Mn per jet cost
With weapons its USD 82-85 Mn

In terms of CPFH
As on 2014 beginning
The global fleet of Gripens now operated by the Czech Republic, Hungary, South Africa, Sweden and Thailand has logged 203,000 flight hours, according to Saab. The Swedish air force lists its current per-hour operating cost with the type as being around SKr48,000 ($7,560).
Saab reveals full Gripen E design, cost savings

Now estimated in and around USD 7000 on lower side and upper side USD 7500

IPR holding
Barring few most IPR are not held by Saab and will require some leeway from BAe and other US majors to allow technology transfer. BAe also holds a veto power.
Some also says few IP rights will be given to Brazil as per their deal perhaps jointly owned..


+++
So in all estimation around USD 65-70 Mn approx for India for a bigger order and weapons loaded closer to USD 80-85 Mn

• The question to ask what it brings to us that we should consider Gripen NG? As most things are not under Saab's control...
• Effectively is it not end game for LCA MK2?
• In terms of CPFH its smack in the middle of LCA and Rafale but undercutting both will help IAF how?
• Since there are plans for sea gripen, will that eat up LCA-N MK2 too?
• What technology can be used for say AMCA? Is it superior to combination of Rafale+FGFA derived tech?

What about the initial cost for manufacturing line? Will 40% cost which i left cover bases infra+training+support+services+others? or will that inflate more owing to multiple bases need?

@randomradio
Can you help with some data about Light Stealth Aircraft you talked about.. Wish to understand if Gripen NG is superior or inferior to that product potential?

If Gripen E/F, then why not Mig35?
Mig35 was rejected for the reason it being too new and untested and immature platform at that time.

So is Gripen E/F now.
At least the Mig35 was flying back then, I don't see Gripen E/F flying.

SAAB put up a replica of Gripen E at Singapore air show .

And the second thing is price, why pay 90 million dollars for 1 Gripen E rather than paying 90 million dollars for 3 mk1A?

The third is the timeline, SAAB promised Brazil to roll out Gripen E prototype by 16-17 which is now pushed back to 18-19.

Is it anywhere near wise going for Gripen ?

Also the AESA will come from Italy, can anyone gurantee me that the secrets of AESA will not find its way to Pakistan ?