So let's have a rundown of the entire estimated fighter aircraft production within foreseeable future,
Sukhoi/HAL FGFA According to latest reports, the IAF would be buying around 60 jets as the first batch, earlier it was thought that first order will be for 144 aircraft. But it seems they want their more slices in their pizza. So far, the maximum stated requirement for the FGFA is 214. This would grow after the MKIs are retired and the path ahead becomes clearer.
Su-30MKI The confirmed order as of today is for 272 jets, but recent reports are clearly hinting at an additional 40, taking the figure to 312. There has always been a strong statement from analyst Sengupta (I assume you all know him much) that MKI numbers will eventually reach 350. If HAL produces MKI at a rate of 12/year, and if we assume we currently have close to 230 of the Flankers already produced, it could take another 10 years (2026) to reach the 350 mark. It seems likely now that MKI production in India might actually happen alongside FGFA production.
A rate of 16/year (currently estimated max capacity) would see us having 350 jets by around 2024.
But there's a high likelihood that the first Super-MKI batch (about 40 jets) could come directly from Irkutsk, and upgradation of the rest of the fleet happens in India later. In which case we could have them all within 2022 or even by late 2020 if the 16/year capacity is used from now on. It's very likely indeed that these 40 jets could be the tranche that bridges the gap between the 312 and the 350 marks. In this case, the above mentioned possibility of FGFA & MKI production at the same time will not happen. This is the desirable approach.
Rafale The current deal calls for between 36 and 54 jets to be purchased off the shelf, separate from the Make in India component of the deal. The MII could see a further production of ~150 jets for Air Force (based on original 189 requirement) and atleast ~70 for the Navy for the first-of-class nuclear carrier. That's close to 250 right there.
++ The carrier gambit ++
It's as yet unclear whether we'll go for a 2nd Vikrant-class CV or not. If we do, the foreseeable composition (based on the 5-6 carrier requirement) would be 2 Vikrants, 2 Vishal CVNs and 1 Vikramaditya. By the time the 2nd CVN's keel is laid, the Vikram will start showing it's age. So a 3rd CVN is a given to replace it.
In hindsight, I always believed a 2nd Vikrant could keep the yards tied up with older technology for a much longer period. But keeping the time it could take to actually iron out the design, EMALS deal, reactor development etc. in mind, a second, improved Project-71 carrier (Gessler calls it Project-71A) is the way to go if you don't want to lose the skilled workforce.
Coming to the aircraft, an N-AMCA is an absolute future necessity. Originally, with the IAF investing in FGFA, a naval version was a possibility but day by day it's relevance to a carrier-role is becoming fainter. I don't think IN will even consider it. Let's give the N-AMCA till 2026 to appear in a workable form, juicing together all the tech & know-how acquired from FGFA, Rafale and Tejas production. But until then we'll need Rafale-Ms in sufficient quantity, their trump card will be that they can operate from any of IN's 3 carrier-classes (Vishal, Vikrant, Vikram) without much (if any) modification. Although operationally they would be limited to Vishaal (Gessler calls it Project-73(N) or simply Project-73) and the P-71A.
The P-73 is estimated to have a capacity of 3 fighter squadrons onboard, at 16/sqd we'll need 48 jets and at 18/sqd we'll need 54 for the carrier alone. Atleast 10-15 will be needed for deployment on shore-bases, and replacements. That's why I thought even a minimum Naval Rafale requirement could be closer to 70 for the first P-73 CVN.
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Tejas LCA Let's just think that the 20 Mk-1 plus 106 Mk-1A plan materializes. That's 126 jets in the light category, it could happen sooner or later (if IAF decides to shave off Mk-1A numbers in favor of Mk-2). Realistically, we'll need around 200 LCAs for the Air Force alone. On the other hand, Navy will only buy the Mk-2 NLCA. About 40-46 of them for operating alongside MiG-29K on P-71 and maybe Vikram also (unlikely, but possible) as well as shore-based duties.
Second MRCA Could be a foreign jet, some new version of Tejas (!) or the LSA proposed by an ex-IN Harrier pilot that's currently under negotiation with IAI for a joint-development contract. If the LSA materializes, it would impress both IN and IAF and we could even see the IN wanting to derive the AMCA from the technologies introduced in this bird. Let's see what the French can offer for this once Rafale is set on it's track. Ideally, we should have the Russians with their FGFA, and pool together all of our agencies in conjunction with all available tech-providers (European, Israeli agencies) to build the LSA.
If you ask me, I'd say the AMCA would be better being made as a bigger, twin-engine version of the LSA. Oh, and we're yet to see exactly what Dedira would bring to Rafale.
